Mastering The Business Cycle

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Mastering The Market Cycle

Author : Howard Marks
Publisher : HarperCollins
ISBN 13 : 1328480569
Total Pages : 339 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (284 download)

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Book Synopsis Mastering The Market Cycle by : Howard Marks

Download or read book Mastering The Market Cycle written by Howard Marks and published by HarperCollins. This book was released on 2018-10-02 with total page 339 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A NEW YORK TIMES, WALL STREET JOURNAL, AND USA TODAY BESTSELLER The legendary investor shows how to identify and master the cycles that govern the markets. We all know markets rise and fall, but when should you pull out, and when should you stay in? The answer is never black or white, but is best reached through a keen understanding of the reasons behind the rhythm of cycles. Confidence about where we are in a cycle comes when you learn the patterns of ups and downs that influence not just economics, markets, and companies, but also human psychology and the investing behaviors that result. If you study past cycles, understand their origins and remain alert for the next one, you will become keenly attuned to the investment environment as it changes. You’ll be aware and prepared while others get blindsided by unexpected events or fall victim to emotions like fear and greed. By following Marks’s insights—drawn in part from his iconic memos over the years to Oaktree’s clients—you can master these recurring patterns to have the opportunity to improve your results.

The Most Important Thing

Author : Howard Marks
Publisher : Columbia University Press
ISBN 13 : 0231527098
Total Pages : 196 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (315 download)

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Book Synopsis The Most Important Thing by : Howard Marks

Download or read book The Most Important Thing written by Howard Marks and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2011-05-01 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This is that rarity, a useful book."--Warren Buffett Howard Marks, the chairman and cofounder of Oaktree Capital Management, is renowned for his insightful assessments of market opportunity and risk. After four decades spent ascending to the top of the investment management profession, he is today sought out by the world's leading value investors, and his client memos brim with insightful commentary and a time-tested, fundamental philosophy. Now for the first time, all readers can benefit from Marks's wisdom, concentrated into a single volume that speaks to both the amateur and seasoned investor. Informed by a lifetime of experience and study, The Most Important Thing explains the keys to successful investment and the pitfalls that can destroy capital or ruin a career. Utilizing passages from his memos to illustrate his ideas, Marks teaches by example, detailing the development of an investment philosophy that fully acknowledges the complexities of investing and the perils of the financial world. Brilliantly applying insight to today's volatile markets, Marks offers a volume that is part memoir, part creed, with a number of broad takeaways. Marks expounds on such concepts as "second-level thinking," the price/value relationship, patient opportunism, and defensive investing. Frankly and honestly assessing his own decisions--and occasional missteps--he provides valuable lessons for critical thinking, risk assessment, and investment strategy. Encouraging investors to be "contrarian," Marks wisely judges market cycles and achieves returns through aggressive yet measured action. Which element is the most essential? Successful investing requires thoughtful attention to many separate aspects, and each of Marks's subjects proves to be the most important thing.

Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis

Author : Christopher Grafton
Publisher : Harriman House Limited
ISBN 13 : 0857191985
Total Pages : 384 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (571 download)

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Book Synopsis Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis by : Christopher Grafton

Download or read book Mastering Hurst Cycle Analysis written by Christopher Grafton and published by Harriman House Limited. This book was released on 2011-11-30 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: One of the best classical methods of technical analysis brought up to date This book offers a modern treatment of Hurst's original system of market cycle analysis. It will teach you how to get to the point where you can isolate cycles in any freely-traded financial instrument and make an assessment of their likely future course. Although Hurst's methodology can seem outwardly complex, the logic underpinning it is straightforward. With practice the skill needed to conduct a full cycle analysis quickly and effectively will become second nature. The rewards for becoming adept are high conviction trades, tight risk management and mastery of a largely non-correlated system of analysis. In this extensive step-by-step guide you will find a full description of the principal tools and techniques taught by Hurst as well as over 120 colour charts, together with tables and diagrams. The Updata and TradeStation code for all of the indicators shown is also included.

Applied Financial Macroeconomics and Investment Strategy

Author : Robert T. McGee
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 113740180X
Total Pages : 265 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (374 download)

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Book Synopsis Applied Financial Macroeconomics and Investment Strategy by : Robert T. McGee

Download or read book Applied Financial Macroeconomics and Investment Strategy written by Robert T. McGee and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-01-12 with total page 265 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The absolute and relative performance of various asset classes is systematically related to macroeconomic trends. In this new book, Robert McGee provides a thorough guide to each stage of the business cycle and analyzes the investment implications using real-world examples linking economic dynamics to investment results.

Mastering the Hype Cycle

Author : Jackie Fenn
Publisher : Harvard Business Press
ISBN 13 : 1422135128
Total Pages : 257 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (221 download)

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Book Synopsis Mastering the Hype Cycle by : Jackie Fenn

Download or read book Mastering the Hype Cycle written by Jackie Fenn and published by Harvard Business Press. This book was released on 2008-10-14 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It happens over and over again. Some innovation (a new product, a management trend) comes along that captures the public's imagination. Everybody joins the parade with great fanfare and high expectations. This "next big thing" promises to transform the companies that adopt it -- and inflict great peril on those that don't. Then, when the innovation fails to deliver as promised immediately, everyone starts bailing out. Investments are wasted; stock prices plunge; disillusionment sets in. It doesn't have to be this way. In Mastering the Hype Cycle, Jackie Fenn and Mark Raskino explain what drives this pattern and how your company can avoid its potential dangers. By understanding the hype cycle, you can ride it more skillfully -- timing your investment decisions so that the innovations you adopt stand the best chance of succeeding in the long-term. Drawing on company examples and Gartner's proven STREET (Scope, Track, Rank, Evaluate, Evangelize, Transfer) framework, the authors show how to orchestrate the key steps in the innovation-adoption process -- from choosing which innovations to take on and when in their life cycle you should adopt, to paving the way for a successful introduction. The hype cycle isn't going away. But this book arms you with the strategies you need to ride the crest of a new idea to success -- and steer clear of the trough of disillusionment.

Mastering the 7 Essentials of High-Growth Companies

Author : David G. Thomson
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470634820
Total Pages : 195 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (76 download)

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Book Synopsis Mastering the 7 Essentials of High-Growth Companies by : David G. Thomson

Download or read book Mastering the 7 Essentials of High-Growth Companies written by David G. Thomson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010-04-30 with total page 195 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Practical strategies to propel your company to the top American business is entering unchartered territory. Recent trends suggest that we are moving out of a recession-fairly labeled The Great Recession-into a recovery phase characterized by high unemployment with growth. As such, the business road ahead will be challenging. Growth will be harder to achieve and business failure will be more prevalent. But the best of America's growth businesses will pass through this cycle to experience renewed and hopeful growth in contrast to the high failure rate of those who fail to grow. The numbers are proving this to be the extreme case-a higher upside with a greater failure rate. What are America's recession-proof, highest growth companies doing differently? What are the values, fundamentals, and actions that will make the difference between failure, or just surviving and thriving? The answer to these questions is, what Thomson calls, The 7 Essentials-value proposition, high growth market segment, marquee customers, big brother alliances, exponential returns, inside/outside leadership, and essential board experts. This book is the timely answer to the search for what it will take to propel a company's growth through these challenging times. It's for management teams of any business, independent of size or industry, which desires to identify a course of action to improve their opportunities to grow. "Applying the 7 Essentials will improve your company's growth prospects," says author David Thomson. Growth companies are especially defined by their ability to grow through recession and recovery periods to become the new growth leaders. The case studies and the numbers in this book prove it. This reliable resource extends the insights from Thomson's bestselling book, Blueprint to a Billion: 7 Essentials to Achieve Exponential Growth to apply the 7 Essentials to all companies. Thomson is known as America's growth expert on what it takes to transform a small business into a billion dollar one. He has been recognized by Investors Business Daily as the "Guru for Uncovering the Blueprint for Sizzling Growth Companies." Offers busy professionals essential insights that will move their business or business unit beyond surviving and into thriving now and in the future Written by an expert on how companies achieve growth in challenging markets Contains key CEO interviews and quick case studies and is supported by on-line scoring tools to help teams apply the 7 Essentials Economic weakness has not changed the need for companies to grow. This book provides you with a proven framework to overcome such challenges and thrive in today's challenging business environment.

Business Cycles

Author : Lars Tvede
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 512 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Business Cycles by : Lars Tvede

Download or read book Business Cycles written by Lars Tvede and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-05-26 with total page 512 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During our lifetime we experience any number of business cycle crises which undermine our confidence and lead many to their ruin. We also experience the ‘happy days’ when our faith in the future becomes almost limitless, and when we forget that tides always turn again. So how can we better understand and predict these cycles? To answer these questions Lars Tvede takes us through a story that moves back in time to the Scottish gambler and financial genius, John Law, and then on to the distracted Adam Smith, the stockbroker Ricardo, the investment banker Thornton, the extrovert Schumpeter, the speculator Gould and many others to trace the theory and reality of business cycles, as it has evolved over 300 years. Gradually we reach the computer jugglers of the modern day who, with giant networks of equations, try to solve the same questions that have attracted the attention of classical economists throughout the centuries. Lars Tvede concludes this historical journey with a summary of what the core of the problem is and how modern understanding of business cycles can be used to forecast economic fluctuations. The final sections of the book provide detailed studies and explanations to of how stocks, bonds, hedge funds, private equity funds, gold, diamonds, exchange rates, real estate, commodities, art and collectibles, and numerous sub-sectors of some of these markets each behave over different categories of business cycles.

The 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle

Author : Kerry Balenthiran
Publisher : Harriman House Limited
ISBN 13 : 0857193090
Total Pages : 83 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (571 download)

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Book Synopsis The 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle by : Kerry Balenthiran

Download or read book The 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle written by Kerry Balenthiran and published by Harriman House Limited. This book was released on 2013-03-11 with total page 83 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How do we know where we are in the current stock market cycle? Are we in the midst of a new long term bull market or a market rally within an ongoing bear market? The answers to the above questions are critical to forming an appropriate investment strategy to plan for the future. The difference between anticipating the end of a secular (or cyclical) bull market and reacting to the significant crash that follows will have a big impact on anyone's investment returns and retirement plans. This book is concerned with cycles. A cycle is a sequence of events that repeat over time. The outcome won't necessarily be the same each time, but the underlying characteristics are the same. A good example is the seasonal cycle. Each year we have spring, summer, autumn and winter, and after winter we have spring again. But the weather can, and does, vary a great deal from one year to another. And so it is with the stock market. Kerry Balenthiran has studied stock market data going back 100 years and discovered a regular 17.6 year stock market cycle consisting of increments of 2.2 years. He has also extrapolated the cycle forwards to provide investors with a market roadmap stretching out to 2053. He describes this in detail and outlines the changing character of the stock market through the different phases of the 17.6 year stock market cycle. Whether you are an investment professional or private investor, this book provides a fascinating insight into the cyclical nature of the stock market and enables you to ensure that you have the right strategy for the prevailing stock market conditions.

Principles

Author : Ray Dalio
Publisher : Simon and Schuster
ISBN 13 : 1982112387
Total Pages : 560 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (821 download)

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Book Synopsis Principles by : Ray Dalio

Download or read book Principles written by Ray Dalio and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2018-08-07 with total page 560 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: #1 New York Times Bestseller “Significant...The book is both instructive and surprisingly moving.” —The New York Times Ray Dalio, one of the world’s most successful investors and entrepreneurs, shares the unconventional principles that he’s developed, refined, and used over the past forty years to create unique results in both life and business—and which any person or organization can adopt to help achieve their goals. In 1975, Ray Dalio founded an investment firm, Bridgewater Associates, out of his two-bedroom apartment in New York City. Forty years later, Bridgewater has made more money for its clients than any other hedge fund in history and grown into the fifth most important private company in the United States, according to Fortune magazine. Dalio himself has been named to Time magazine’s list of the 100 most influential people in the world. Along the way, Dalio discovered a set of unique principles that have led to Bridgewater’s exceptionally effective culture, which he describes as “an idea meritocracy that strives to achieve meaningful work and meaningful relationships through radical transparency.” It is these principles, and not anything special about Dalio—who grew up an ordinary kid in a middle-class Long Island neighborhood—that he believes are the reason behind his success. In Principles, Dalio shares what he’s learned over the course of his remarkable career. He argues that life, management, economics, and investing can all be systemized into rules and understood like machines. The book’s hundreds of practical lessons, which are built around his cornerstones of “radical truth” and “radical transparency,” include Dalio laying out the most effective ways for individuals and organizations to make decisions, approach challenges, and build strong teams. He also describes the innovative tools the firm uses to bring an idea meritocracy to life, such as creating “baseball cards” for all employees that distill their strengths and weaknesses, and employing computerized decision-making systems to make believability-weighted decisions. While the book brims with novel ideas for organizations and institutions, Principles also offers a clear, straightforward approach to decision-making that Dalio believes anyone can apply, no matter what they’re seeking to achieve. Here, from a man who has been called both “the Steve Jobs of investing” and “the philosopher king of the financial universe” (CIO magazine), is a rare opportunity to gain proven advice unlike anything you’ll find in the conventional business press.

A Short History of Financial Euphoria

Author : John Kenneth Galbraith
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 110165080X
Total Pages : 130 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (16 download)

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Book Synopsis A Short History of Financial Euphoria by : John Kenneth Galbraith

Download or read book A Short History of Financial Euphoria written by John Kenneth Galbraith and published by Penguin. This book was released on 1994-07-01 with total page 130 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The world-renowned economist offers "dourly irreverent analyses of financial debacle from the tulip craze of the seventeenth century to the recent plague of junk bonds." —The Atlantic. With incomparable wisdom, skill, and wit, world-renowned economist John Kenneth Galbraith traces the history of the major speculative episodes in our economy over the last three centuries. Exposing the ways in which normally sane people display reckless behavior in pursuit of profit, Galbraith asserts that our "notoriously short" financial memory is what creates the conditions for market collapse. By recognizing these signs and understanding what causes them we can guard against future recessions and have a better hold on our country's (and our own) financial destiny.

The Little Book of Stock Market Cycles

Author : Jeffrey A. Hirsch
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 111828349X
Total Pages : 245 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (182 download)

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Book Synopsis The Little Book of Stock Market Cycles by : Jeffrey A. Hirsch

Download or read book The Little Book of Stock Market Cycles written by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-07-11 with total page 245 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Jeffrey Hirsch discusses how to capture market-beating returns by following specific stock market cycles While predicting the direction of the stock market at any given point is difficult, it's a fact that the market exhibits well-defined and sometimes predictable patterns. While cycles do not repeat exactly all of the time, statistical evidence suggests that cyclical tendencies are very strong and should not be ignored by investors. The Little Book of Stock Market Cycles will show you how to profit from these recurring stock market patterns and cycles. Written by Jeffrey Hirsch, President of the Hirsch Organization and Editor-in-Chief of the Stock Trader's Almanac, this reliable resource explains why these cycles occur, provides the historical evidence behind them, and shows you how to capture consistent profits from them moving forward. In addition to describing his most widely followed cycles and patters, Hirsch also discusses both longer term boom-bust economic cycles and shorter term tendencies involving the best days, weeks, and months of the year to trade the market. The methods found here follow everything from presidential election cycles to the "Santa Claus" effect Written by Jeffrey Hirsch, the pre-eminent authority on market cycles and seasonal patterns The strategies explored are easy-to-implement, and based on research that has proven profitable over the course of time For investors looking to beat the buy-and-hold philosophy, The Little Book of Stock Market Cycles will provide simple, actionable ideas that have stood the test of time and consistently outperformed the market.

Capital Returns

Author : Edward Chancellor
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 1137571659
Total Pages : 223 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (375 download)

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Book Synopsis Capital Returns by : Edward Chancellor

Download or read book Capital Returns written by Edward Chancellor and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-05-04 with total page 223 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We live in an age of serial asset bubbles and spectacular busts. Economists, policymakers, central bankers and most people in the financial world have been blindsided by these busts, while investors have lost trillions. Economists argue that bubbles can only be spotted after they burst and that market moves are unpredictable. Yet Marathon Asset Management, a London-based investment firm managing over $50 billion of assets has developed a relatively simple method for identifying and potentially avoiding them: follow the money, or rather the trail of investment. Bubbles whether they affect a whole economy or merely a single industry, tend to attract a splurge of capital spending. Excessive investment drives down returns and leads inexorably to a bust. This was the case with both the technology bubble at the turn of the century and the US housing bubble which followed shortly after. More recently, vast sums have been invested in mining and energy. From an investor's perspective, the trick is to avoid investing in sectors, or markets, where investment spending is unduly elevated and competition is fierce, and to put one's money to work where capital expenditure is depressed, competitive conditions are more favourable and, as a result, prospective investment returns are higher. This capital cycle strategy encourages investors to eschew the simple 'growth' and 'value' dichotomy and identify firms that can deliver superior returns either because capital has been taken out of an industry, or because the business has strong barriers to entry (what Warren Buffett refers to as a 'moat'). Some of Marathon's most successful investments have come from obscure, sometimes niche operations whose businesses are protected from the destructive forces of the capital cycle. Capital Returns is a comprehensive introduction to the theory and practical implementation of the capital cycle approach to investment. Edited and with an introduction by Edward Chancellor, the book brings together 60 of the most insightful reports written between 2002 and 2014 by Marathon portfolio managers. Capital Returns provides key insights into the capital cycle strategy, all supported with real life examples from global brewers to the semiconductor industry - showing how this approach can be usefully applied to different industry conditions and how, prior to 2008, it helped protect assets from financial catastrophe. This book will be a welcome reference for serious investors who looking to maximise portfolio returns over the long run.

Mastering Futures Trading

Author : Bo Yoder
Publisher : McGraw Hill Professional
ISBN 13 : 9780071420341
Total Pages : 268 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (23 download)

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Book Synopsis Mastering Futures Trading by : Bo Yoder

Download or read book Mastering Futures Trading written by Bo Yoder and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2004 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explores the strategies concepts and methodologies you need to know to become a successful futures trader. This book will provide you with the tools you need to spot futures market trends, identify pending rallies or pullbacks and put your money on the line when you've uncovered a firm directional bias.

Ahead of the Curve

Author : Joseph H. Ellis
Publisher : Harvard Business Review Press
ISBN 13 : 1633691225
Total Pages : 301 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (336 download)

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Book Synopsis Ahead of the Curve by : Joseph H. Ellis

Download or read book Ahead of the Curve written by Joseph H. Ellis and published by Harvard Business Review Press. This book was released on 2005-10-11 with total page 301 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic and stock market cycles affect companies in every industry. Unfortunately, a confusing array of anecdotal and conflicting indicators often renders it impossible for managers and investors to see where the economy is heading in time to take corrective action. Now, a 35-year Wall Street veteran unveils a new forecasting method to help managers and investors understand and predict the economic cycles that control their businesses and financial fates. In Ahead of the Curve, Joseph H. Ellis argues that the problem with current forecasting models lies not in the data, but rather in the lack of a clear framework for putting the data in context and reading it correctly. The book explains critical economic indicators in nontechnical language, identifies and documents the recurring cause-and-effect relationships that consistently predict turning points in the economy, and provides the tools managers and investors need to position themselves ahead of cyclical upturns and downturns. Economic events are not as random and unpredictable as they seem. This book helps readers recognize and react to signs of change that their rivals don't see—and win a sizeable competitive advantage. Joseph H. Ellis was a partner at Goldman Sachs and was ranked for 18 consecutive years by Institutional Investor magazine as Wall Street's No.1 retail industry analyst.

Mastering Product Management: A Step-By-Step Guide

Author : Kevin Brennan
Publisher : Kevin Brennan
ISBN 13 : 173383902X
Total Pages : 131 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (338 download)

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Book Synopsis Mastering Product Management: A Step-By-Step Guide by : Kevin Brennan

Download or read book Mastering Product Management: A Step-By-Step Guide written by Kevin Brennan and published by Kevin Brennan. This book was released on 2019-10-25 with total page 131 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mastering Product Management: A Step-by-Step Guide offers practical, real-world advice on how to create and capture value as a Product Manager. It covers the full product life cycle, from idea discovery through end-of-life. Each section is scannable and concise, around two to three pages. Rather than diving deep into the theoretical background of a given area, it serves as a checklist of the key steps a Product Manager should take to complete a given task. - Source new ideas that succeed - Set a compelling product vision and strategy - Search for profitable new business models - Become a market expert - Effectively manage roadmaps - Ensure a successful product launch - Understand value and price profitably - Build and manage high-performance teams - And much more! This book is a convenient reference guide that you can use throughout your workday. It’s meant for Product Managers of all levels and for anyone wishing to understand what it takes to define, develop, launch, and market new products successfully.

Mastering Investment

Author : James Pickford
Publisher : Pearson Education
ISBN 13 : 9780273659266
Total Pages : 382 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (592 download)

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Book Synopsis Mastering Investment by : James Pickford

Download or read book Mastering Investment written by James Pickford and published by Pearson Education. This book was released on 2002 with total page 382 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the articles in this book reveal, investors are confronted with a dizzying array of instruments, strategies, goals and controls, advice and counsel from experts, and a deluge of statistics. However, yesterday's answer often turns out to be tomorrow's wrong number, as markets evolve and fresh information floods in. Yet beneath all this lies the essence of investment, the hidden future. If we held the key to that mystery, we could dispense with experts and thier mountains of statistics. One instrument and strategy would suffice. This book has been written by leading academics from four business schools renowned for thier investment expertise: Chicago Graduate School of Business, LBS, Columbia Business School and the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. Together they have produced an invaluable survey of the subject, bringing together fundamental principles, investment practice and cutting edge thinking. What is at the essence of good investment? Mastering Investment offers the answers.

Nowcasting the Business Cycle

Author : James Picerno
Publisher : CreateSpace
ISBN 13 : 9781492923855
Total Pages : 154 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (238 download)

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Book Synopsis Nowcasting the Business Cycle by : James Picerno

Download or read book Nowcasting the Business Cycle written by James Picerno and published by CreateSpace. This book was released on 2014-04 with total page 154 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Nowcasting The Business Cycle presents a practical guide for analyzing recession risk—the primary risk factor that drives success and failure in business, finance, wealth management, and so much more. Whether you're an individual investor watching over your retirement account; the owner of a small business; a manager running a billion-dollar pension fund; or a CEO in charge of a global corporation, a large portion of triumph and defeat is closely linked with the broad swings in the economy. The business cycle, in other words, is the mother of all known (and recurring) risk factors. Accordingly, developing a process for assessing the likelihood of this threat is critical. Everyone needs a reliable, timely warning system that's relatively uncomplicated and transparent. Drawing on economic theory and macro's historical record, Nowcasting The Business Cycle outlines a simple but effective model for identifying those times when a new recession has probably started. This isn't forecasting, which is a fool's errand when it comes to the economy. Instead, the goal is recognizing when a majority of key indicators have already reached a tipping point. That may sound like a trivial advantage, but most people—including many economists—don't fully recognize when a recession has begun until the deterioration is obvious. By that point, the opportunity has probably passed for taking defensive measures in your investment portfolio, your business, or your career. The real challenge is less about predicting and more about developing solid intuition for recognizing when the macro threat is exceptionally high. Even a small degree of progress here can provide a considerable boost to your strategic insight. If we can learn the techniques for recognizing a cyclical downturn's presence relatively early—soon after it's begun, or just as it's starting—we'll have an advantage that tends to elude most folks. Nowcasting The Business Cycle provides a roadmap for ensuring that you won't be caught by surprise when the next recession strikes. That's a crucial advantage for one powerful reason: There's always another recession coming.