Long Wave Rhythms In Economic Development And Political Behavior

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Long-Wave Rhythms in Economic Development and Political Behavior

Author : Brian J. L. Berry
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 264 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Long-Wave Rhythms in Economic Development and Political Behavior by : Brian J. L. Berry

Download or read book Long-Wave Rhythms in Economic Development and Political Behavior written by Brian J. L. Berry and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is economic development a "random walk" or do underlying rhythms and cycles make it possible to anticipate long-term trends? Many social scientists have rejected the notion of long-term periodicity in economic trends. Now, after extensive analysis of economic data, distinguished scholar Brian J. L. Berry has found new evidence for the reliability—and the value—of "long-wave" theory. In Long-Wave Rhythms in Economic Development and Political Bahavior, Berry argues that the synchronization of long waves and growth cycles is "more than a figment of some overactive imagination". Presenting his findings graphically, he argues that there is persuasive evidence of the existence of "deterministic chaos". Applying his analysis of rates of change to the economic phenomena of prices (Kondratiev cycles) and growth (Kuznets cycles), he discovers that pairs of 25-year growth cycles are embedded within 55-year long waves. As a result, Berry concludes, two different kinds of growth cycles— one inflationary and the other deflationary—form a complementary pattern of alternating crises with stagflation and depression. Berry also explores the "shifting sand" of cyclical phenomena in the stock market, voting behavior, the incidence of wars, the rise and fall of great powers, and mass psychologies. While avoiding dogmatic conclusions, he offers a provocative discussion of the long-wave context of social phenomena. As he examines the American economy in long-wave context, Berry optimistically asserts that the "bust" is not inevitable. Technological advances in information transfer enable leaders and organizations to anticipate and alleviate the adverse effects of economic cycles. "Like it or not," he writes, "our lives appear to be embedded in a higher order of complexity: collectively, we are a societal organism that displays self-regulating fluctuations around a path of growth."

The Rhythms of American Politics

Author : Brian J. L. Berry
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 184 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis The Rhythms of American Politics by : Brian J. L. Berry

Download or read book The Rhythms of American Politics written by Brian J. L. Berry and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Proposes that for the past 200 years, alternations of conservatism, liberalism, competitive politics, and progressivism in the US have moved in lockstep with the long-wave economic rhythms that are driven by bursts of new technology every 50-60 years and bring quarter- century-long alternations of deflationary downwaves and inflationary upwaves that are separated by turning points occurring in inflationary spirals and deflationary troughs. Argues that those patterns provide more insight into what lies ahead both politically and economically than does the investor jubilation of the past six years. The treatment is historical rather than mathematical. Annotation copyrighted by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR

The Long Wave in Economic Life

Author : J.J. Van Duijn
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1136599940
Total Pages : 235 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (365 download)

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Book Synopsis The Long Wave in Economic Life by : J.J. Van Duijn

Download or read book The Long Wave in Economic Life written by J.J. Van Duijn and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-11-05 with total page 235 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Of all fluctuations in economic activity, the long wave or Kondratieff cycle is easily the most puzzling and least understood one. Does it really exist, and if so, is it only a cycle in prices or a cycle in economic activity at large? What causes it, and has it been confined to Europe or does it affect the world economy as a whole? These questions, which seemed of little relevance in the prosperous years of the postwar growth era, have gained new importance since 1973. With the downturn of the long wave, interest in it has enjoyed a revival, as it did in the 1930s. A great number of publications on the long wave have appeared since 1973, many of which have added to our insight of what causes the recurrent alternations of growth acceleration and retardation. This book is the first in the English language in which all important long wave theories, old as well as recent, are brought together. It focuses on the long wave as an international phenomenon, affecting all industrialised countries. It contains new theory as well as empirical evidence and in the final section suggests a number of policy recommendations to generate innovation. This book offers an interpretation of long-term economic development different from those commonly found in the literature. It will be of interest to students and scholars of the economics of growth and change, as well as to economic historians and policy-makers. This book was first published in 1983.

The Dog Bone Portfolio

Author : Margret Kopala
Publisher : BPS Books
ISBN 13 : 1772360163
Total Pages : 715 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (723 download)

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Book Synopsis The Dog Bone Portfolio by : Margret Kopala

Download or read book The Dog Bone Portfolio written by Margret Kopala and published by BPS Books. This book was released on 2015-06-01 with total page 715 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Like so many of us, Margret Kopala lost a significant portion of her life savings in the stock market crash of 2008. Unlike us, however, she went on a long and intense financial odyssey to find out what caused the losses and what she could do to protect herself in the future. Armed with her skills as a journalist and public policy analyst, fueled by equal measures of fear and determination, and mentored by successful investment strategist and financial broadcaster John Budden, Kopala researched and wrote this magisterial analysis of how Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff’s long-wave theory is playing out in what many today describe as a financial Winter. Along the way, she is introduced to financial experts familiar with Kondratieff scholarship. John Budden’s interviews in the book with Dean LeBaron, J. Anthony Boeckh, Ian Gordon, Larry Jeddeloh, Don Lindsey, the late Lord William Rees-Mogg, Jim Rogers, Eric Sprott, and Ronald-Peter Stöferle show how investors must put a new spin on asset allocation and security of their assets: like a dog that buries bones in different places, we would be advised to allocate our assets to different parts of the world – and to ensure that a good portion of those assets include gold, the only continuous basis of wealth across history and around the world. Kopala explores the global, national, and personal effects of: overconsumption; underproduction; energy and innovation; the printing of money to "save" the economy; competitive devaluations; deflation, reflation, and inflation; and war (the ultimate economic crisis). She documents those technologies that seeded previous New Economy Spring seasons -- from the era of canals to those of railroads, automobiles, and infotech -- and probes today’s innovations most likely to seed the Next New Economy that we desperately need if we are to escape the doldrums of the current financial Winter. With trenchant explanations of how individuals can achieve portfolio strength by first preserving capital then being vigilant about the financial effects of politics, economic theory, culture, and our own choices, The Dog Bone Portfolio is a gift to investors, policy-makers, and, ultimately, nations everywhere.

The Long Wave in Economic Life

Author : Jacob J. van Duijn
Publisher : London ; Boston : Allen & Unwin
ISBN 13 : 9780043303306
Total Pages : 239 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (33 download)

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Book Synopsis The Long Wave in Economic Life by : Jacob J. van Duijn

Download or read book The Long Wave in Economic Life written by Jacob J. van Duijn and published by London ; Boston : Allen & Unwin. This book was released on 1983 with total page 239 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Rhythms in Politics and Economics

Author : Paul M. Johnson
Publisher : Greenwood
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 376 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Rhythms in Politics and Economics by : Paul M. Johnson

Download or read book Rhythms in Politics and Economics written by Paul M. Johnson and published by Greenwood. This book was released on 1985 with total page 376 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The long Wave in economic life

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (916 download)

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Book Synopsis The long Wave in economic life by :

Download or read book The long Wave in economic life written by and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Long Waves in Economic Development

Author : Jan Reijnders
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 328 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Long Waves in Economic Development by : Jan Reijnders

Download or read book Long Waves in Economic Development written by Jan Reijnders and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 1990 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Presenting the history of long wave analysis from its origins to the present day and stressing its intimate relationship with the development of business cycle theory, this acclaimed study offers a thorough critique of conventional long wave analysis.

The Waves of Time

Author : K. R. Dark
Publisher : Bloomsbury Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1474288316
Total Pages : 306 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (742 download)

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Book Synopsis The Waves of Time by : K. R. Dark

Download or read book The Waves of Time written by K. R. Dark and published by Bloomsbury Publishing. This book was released on 2016-10-06 with total page 306 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the end of the Cold War, analysts of international politics have given much greater attention to issues of change. It has become increasingly clear to specialists from many fields that any understanding of large-scale political change must encompass far longer timescales than has been usual in the study of world politics, and must incorporate multi-disciplinary perspectives. This book evaluates and draws on relevant theoretical approaches from other disciplines such as sociology, economics, geography, history, anthropology and archaeology, as well as evolutionary theory and the mathematical study of complexity. Using an epistemological framework, Dark sets out a theory of long-term world political change: the theory of 'Macrodynamics'. This is then applied to historical, anthropological and archaeological data to explain the changing forms of political organization, from the earliest human societies to the late twentieth century. The resulting analysis is a reinterpretation of the processes of global political change in the past and present. This, in turn, opens new areas of enquiry in the study of international relations and has profound implications for how we understand the changing world of today.

A World-systems Reader

Author : Thomas D. Hall
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN 13 : 9780847691845
Total Pages : 360 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (918 download)

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Book Synopsis A World-systems Reader by : Thomas D. Hall

Download or read book A World-systems Reader written by Thomas D. Hall and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2000 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book brings together some of the most influential research from the world-systems perspective. The authors survey and analyze new and emerging topics from a wide range of disciplinary perspectives, from political science to archaeology. Each analytical essay is written in accessible language so that the volume serves as a lucid introduction both to the tradition of world-systems thought and the new debates that are sparking further research today. Visit our website for sample chapters!

Chaos Theory in the Social Sciences

Author : L. Douglas Kiel
Publisher : University of Michigan Press
ISBN 13 : 0472022520
Total Pages : 358 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (72 download)

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Book Synopsis Chaos Theory in the Social Sciences by : L. Douglas Kiel

Download or read book Chaos Theory in the Social Sciences written by L. Douglas Kiel and published by University of Michigan Press. This book was released on 2009-11-10 with total page 358 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Chaos Theory in the Social Sciences: Foundations and Applications offers the most recent thinking in applying the chaos paradigm to the social sciences. The book explores the methodological techniques--and their difficulties--for determining whether chaotic processes may in fact exist in a particular instance and examines implications of chaos theory when applied specifically to political science, economics, and sociology. The contributors to the book show that no single technique can be used to diagnose and describe all chaotic processes and identify the strengths and limitations of a variety of approaches. The essays in this volume consider the application of chaos theory to such diverse phenomena as public opinion, the behavior of states in the international arena, the development of rational economic expectations, and long waves. Contributors include Brian J. L. Berry, Thad Brown, Kenyon B. DeGreene, Dimitrios Dendrinos, Euel Elliott, David Harvey, L. Ted Jaditz, Douglas Kiel, Heja Kim, Michael McBurnett, Michael Reed, Diana Richards, J. Barkley Rosser, Jr., and Alvin M. Saperstein. L. Douglas Kiel and Euel W. Elliott are both Associate Professors of Government, Politics, and Political Economy, University of Texas at Dallas.

Systemic Choices

Author : Gregory A. Daneke
Publisher : University of Michigan Press
ISBN 13 : 0472023454
Total Pages : 198 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (72 download)

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Book Synopsis Systemic Choices by : Gregory A. Daneke

Download or read book Systemic Choices written by Gregory A. Daneke and published by University of Michigan Press. This book was released on 2010-05-25 with total page 198 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The revolution in social scientific theory and practice known as nonlinear dynamics, chaos, or complexity, derived from recent advances in the physical, biological, and cognitive sciences, is now culminating with the widespread use of tools and concepts such as praxis, fuzzy logic, artificial intelligence, and parallel processing. By tracing a number of conceptual threads from mathematics, economics, cybernetics, and various other applied systems theoretics, this book offers a historical framework for how these ideas are transforming the social sciences. Daneke goes on to address a variety of persistent philosophical issues surrounding this paradigm shift, ranging from the nature of human rationality to free will. Finally, he describes this shift as a path for revitalizing the social sciences just when they will be most needed to address the human condition in the new millennium. Systemic Choices describes how praxis and other complex systems tools can be applied to a number of pressing policy and management problems. For example, simulations can be used to grow a number of robust hybrid industrial and/or technological strategies between cooperation and competition. Likewise, elements of international agreements could be tested for sustainability under adaptively evolving institutional designs. Other concrete applications include strategic management, total quality management, and operational analyses. This exploration of a wide range of technical tools and concepts will interest economists, political scientists, sociologists, psychologists, and those in the management disciplines such as strategy, organizational behavior, finance, and operations. Gregory A. Daneke is Professor of Technology Management, Arizona State University, and of Human and Organization Development, The Fielding Institute.

Kondratieff waves

Author : Leonid E. Grinin
Publisher : ООО "Издательство "Учитель"
ISBN 13 : 5705760442
Total Pages : 200 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (57 download)

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Book Synopsis Kondratieff waves by : Leonid E. Grinin

Download or read book Kondratieff waves written by Leonid E. Grinin and published by ООО "Издательство "Учитель". This book was released on with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This fifth issue of the Yearbook ‘Kondratieff Waves’ has the subtitle ‘Historical and Theoretical Aspects’, as its papers cover some interesting aspects of long-wave dynamics both in historical trends and in theoretical researches. The Yearbook consists of three sections. The first section (Theoretical Aspects) includes two articles devoted to the correlation between the long waves and much longer cycles, i.e. the Industrial and the Cybernetic revolutions. The second section (Historical Aspects) presents three contributions which consider the history of the USA, technological activity since the Middle Ages and some little-known aspects of the history of long-wave dynamics research. The final section (Reviews, Notes, and Reflections) includes two reviews. This issue will be useful for economists, social scientists, as well as for a wide range of those interested in the problems of the past, present, and future of global economy and globalization.

Regional Innovation Potential: The Case of the U.S. Machine Tool Industry

Author : Steven R. Nivin
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1351767313
Total Pages : 172 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (517 download)

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Book Synopsis Regional Innovation Potential: The Case of the U.S. Machine Tool Industry by : Steven R. Nivin

Download or read book Regional Innovation Potential: The Case of the U.S. Machine Tool Industry written by Steven R. Nivin and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-01-12 with total page 172 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This title was first published in 2000: Steven Nivin analyzes a process vital to economic development - technological change. He furthers understanding of the processes driving innovation, so that we may gain a deeper insight into the development of economies. Specifically, the study explores the concept of innovation potential and the factors that result in variations in innovation potential across metropolitan areas, using the US machine tool industry as a case study. To provide a comparison, the same models are also estimated for the semiconductor industry. The findings indicate that urbanisation economies, localization economies, human capital, universities, and invention-derived knowledge are significant factors. The study assesses the contributions of three different skill levels of human capital; college-educated, graduate degree, and locally produced PhD’s in mechanical and electrical engineering. Only the graduate and PhD degree measures are found to be significant, indicating the importance of having a highly skilled pool of labour within the region. The influences of the factors appear to be similar across industries, with some slight differences. The transfer of knowledge through patents is also studied. It is found that the transmission of this knowledge is slower between different industries, relative to the transmission within the same industry.

Globalization

Author : Gernot Kohler
Publisher : Nova Publishers
ISBN 13 : 9781590333464
Total Pages : 474 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (334 download)

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Book Synopsis Globalization by : Gernot Kohler

Download or read book Globalization written by Gernot Kohler and published by Nova Publishers. This book was released on 2003 with total page 474 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The majority of people around the world are experiencing oppressive and destructive forces which manifest themselves in starvation, income polarisation, joblessness, stress, violence, and so on. What is the nature of these forces? If we call them "globalisation", can there be good globalisation as well as bad globalisation? Is this a new phenomenon or just a continuation of history as it has always been? This book brings together a wide range of expertise addressing these problems from a world-systems perspective.

Extraordinary Politics

Author : Charles Euchner
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 0429969163
Total Pages : 304 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (299 download)

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Book Synopsis Extraordinary Politics by : Charles Euchner

Download or read book Extraordinary Politics written by Charles Euchner and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-02-19 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Political protest and social movementstheir history; their cyclical development; their organization, strategies, and tacticsconstitute what Charles Euchner calls extraordinary politics, an antidote to the breakdown of politics-as-usual and a necessary, if not sufficient, condition of democracy. Activists have set the pace on every conceivable issue, including the environment, gay rights, feminism, abortion, states rights, religion, and multiculturalism. The president and Congress can barely keep up, but extraordinary politics keeps evolving. With style and grace, the author weaves together hundreds of examples drawn from movements spanning the ideological spectrum to offer both a practical and intellectual guidebook to political activism in a reputedly apathetic age, embracing with abandon the art of making a difference. }When dissidents and activists toppled powerful regimes across the globe in the 1980s and 1990sfrom the Soviet Union to South Africa, from Nicaragua to the Philippineshow did Americans respond to challenges in their own country? The conventional wisdom is that Americans sullenly withdrew from all manner of political action. But in fact, activists of all backgrounds took to the streets to challenge ordinary structures of politics.These movementstheir history; their cyclical development; their organization, strategies, and tacticsconstitute what the author calls extraordinary politics. Activists have set the pace on every conceivable issue, including the environment, gay rights, feminism, abortion, states rights, religion, and multiculturalism. The president and Congress can barely keep up, but extraordinary politics keeps evolving.With style and grace, Charles Euchner weaves together hundreds of examples drawn from movements spanning the ideological spectrum to offer both a practical and intellectual guidebook to political activism in a reputedly apathetic age, embracing with abandon the art of making a difference. }

Great Divergence and Great Convergence

Author : Leonid Grinin
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 331917780X
Total Pages : 261 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (191 download)

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Book Synopsis Great Divergence and Great Convergence by : Leonid Grinin

Download or read book Great Divergence and Great Convergence written by Leonid Grinin and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-05-09 with total page 261 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This new monograph provides a stimulating new take on hotly contested topics in world modernization and the globalizing economy. It begins by situating what is called the Great Divergence--the social/technological revolution that led European nations to outpace the early dominance of Asia--in historical context over centuries. This is contrasted with an equally powerful Great Convergence, the recent economic and technological expansion taking place in Third World nations and characterized by narrowing inequity among nations. They are seen here as two phases of an inevitable global process, centuries in the making, with the potential for both positive and negative results. This sophisticated presentation examines: Why the developing world is growing more rapidly than the developed world. How this development began occurring under the Western world's radar. How former colonies of major powers grew to drive the world's economy. Why so many Western economists have been slow to recognize the Great Convergence. The increasing risk of geopolitical instability. Why the world is likely to find itself without an absolute leader after the end of the American hegemony A work of rare scope, Great Divergence and Great Convergence gives sociologists, global economists, demographers, and global historians a deeper understanding of the broader movement of social and economic history, combined with a long view of history as it is currently being made; it also offers some thrilling forecasts for global development in the forthcoming decades.