Read Books Online and Download eBooks, EPub, PDF, Mobi, Kindle, Text Full Free.
Livelihood Resilience And The Agrifood System In Myanmar Implications For Agriculture And A Rural Development Strategy In A Time Of Crisis
Download Livelihood Resilience And The Agrifood System In Myanmar Implications For Agriculture And A Rural Development Strategy In A Time Of Crisis full books in PDF, epub, and Kindle. Read online Livelihood Resilience And The Agrifood System In Myanmar Implications For Agriculture And A Rural Development Strategy In A Time Of Crisis ebook anywhere anytime directly on your device. Fast Download speed and no annoying ads. We cannot guarantee that every ebooks is available!
Author :Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) Publisher :Intl Food Policy Res Inst ISBN 13 : Total Pages :18 pages Book Rating :4./5 ( download)
Book Synopsis Livelihood resilience and the agrifood system in Myanmar: Implications for agriculture and a rural development strategy in a time of crisis by : Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA)
Download or read book Livelihood resilience and the agrifood system in Myanmar: Implications for agriculture and a rural development strategy in a time of crisis written by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2023-08-24 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Myanmar’s agrifood system has proven surprisingly resilient in the face of multiple crises—COVID 19, the military coup, economic mismanagement, global price instability, and widespread conflict—with respect to production and exports. Household welfare has not been resilient, however. High rates of inflation, especially food price inflation, have resulted in dietary degradation across all house hold groups, especially those dependent on casual wage labor. Among household members, young children experience the highest rates of inadequate dietary quality. Expanded social protection to improve access to better-quality diets for vulnerable households and individuals is therefore needed. Beyond the current political crisis, increased public and private investment in a more efficient and dynamic agrifood system should be a high priority. This will help drive down poverty rates and ensure access to healthy diets in the near term, while laying the foundation for sustained growth and structural transformation of the economy.
Author :Researchers of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) Publisher :Intl Food Policy Res Inst ISBN 13 : Total Pages :18 pages Book Rating :4./5 ( download)
Book Synopsis Impacts of COVID-19 on Myanmar’s agri-food system: Evidence base and policy implications by : Researchers of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
Download or read book Impacts of COVID-19 on Myanmar’s agri-food system: Evidence base and policy implications written by Researchers of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-10-09 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Between April and October 2020, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and Michigan State University (MSU), with support from the United States Agency of International Development (USAID) and the Livelihoods and Food Security Fund (LIFT), have undertaken analyses of secondary data combined with regular telephone surveys of actors at all stages of Myanmar’s agri-food system in order to better understand the impacts of COVID-19 on the system. These analyses show that the volume of agribusiness has slowed considerably in Myanmar since COVID-19 restrictions were put in place. There is lower demand from farmers for agricultural inputs and mechanization services and lower volumes of produce traded, especially exports to neighboring countries whose borders are closed. All actors in the agri-food system are facing liquidity constraints and experiencing increased difficulties in both borrowing and recovering loans.
Author :Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) Publisher :Intl Food Policy Res Inst ISBN 13 : Total Pages :25 pages Book Rating :4./5 ( download)
Book Synopsis Beyond emergency relief: What will it take to ensure a resilient recovery for agriculture and the rural economy of Myanmar by : Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA)
Download or read book Beyond emergency relief: What will it take to ensure a resilient recovery for agriculture and the rural economy of Myanmar written by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2022-02-02 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent history of rural economic transformation in Myanmar and the effects of COVID-19 and the military coup in February 2021 provide important lessons for the design and implementation of plans to help the country recover from these scourges. The impoverishment of farming communities in Myanmar during decades of socialist military rule, beginning in the 1960s until the turn of the century, led to an outflux of migrants to neighboring countries. As the country opened up to foreign investment through economic reforms initiated in 2011, rural wages surged and farm mechanization services expanded rapidly. Together with increased remittance flows from migrants, higher rural household incomes drove growth in a wide range of non-farm service enterprises. Nevertheless, agricultural growth was low and most crop subsectors stagnated due to underlying and unresolved structural constraints such as poor infrastructure and inequality in land access. As in many other countries in Asia, border closures and lockdowns instituted to prevent the spread of COVID-19 in early 2020 resulted in widespread employment and income losses. The Myanmar government pro-actively sought to mitigate the impacts through expanded credit to farmers and businesses. By the end of 2020, Myanmar was beginning to recover from the economic stresses of COVID-19. However, the February 2021 military coup resulted in a far more severe economic downturn than COVID-19 due to the collapse of the financial system, the massive resignations by public sector employees, and the prolonged movement restrictions. Coup-induced state failure greatly magnified the health and economic consequences of COVID-19 in terms of poverty, food insecurity, and stalled economic transformation. This paper uses a combination of macro, meso, and micro-level analyses to measure the impacts of COVID-19 and state failure on rural economic transformation through the lens of the agri-food system, and to draw lessons for policies to support broad-based and resilient economic recovery.
Author :Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) Publisher :Intl Food Policy Res Inst ISBN 13 : Total Pages :19 pages Book Rating :4./5 ( download)
Book Synopsis Myanmar's poverty and food insecurity crisis: Support to agriculture and food assistance is urgently needed to preserve a foundation for recovery by : Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA)
Download or read book Myanmar's poverty and food insecurity crisis: Support to agriculture and food assistance is urgently needed to preserve a foundation for recovery written by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-07-13 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: National poverty rates in Myanmar have risen dramatically due to economic disruption following the February 1, 2021 military take-over of government. Depending on assumptions about the scale of the economic impacts, household poverty rates are predicted to have risen to between 40 and 50 percent in 2021, compared to 32 percent in 2015 and just under 25 percent in 2017. Between 849,000 and 1.87 million new households are thus living in poverty in 2021 in addition to the estimated 2.86 million households already in poverty in 2015. The poverty impacts of these disruptions are significant not only in the sharp increases in the total number of households in poverty, but also in the substantial deepening of poverty for households that were already poor. By the end of the current financial year, the average poverty gap (expenditure shortfall) is predicted to have increased from 26 percent in 2015 to between 34 and 40 percent for individuals living in poor households.
Author :Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) Publisher :Intl Food Policy Res Inst ISBN 13 : Total Pages :32 pages Book Rating :4./5 ( download)
Book Synopsis The continuous rise - during economic growth, the COVID-19 Pandemic, and conflict - in the adoption of labor-saving agricultural technologies in Myanmar: Evidence and implications by : Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA)
Download or read book The continuous rise - during economic growth, the COVID-19 Pandemic, and conflict - in the adoption of labor-saving agricultural technologies in Myanmar: Evidence and implications written by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2023-09-27 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After decades of isolationism and economic stagnation, Myanmar opened its economy in the beginning of the 2010s, leading to rapid economic growth (Myanmar’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was almost 50 percent larger in 2020 than in 2011). But the COVID-19 health crisis that started in 2020 and a military coup in the beginning of 2021 – and the subsequent increase in conflicts, forced displacements, and migration – dramatically reversed that outlook, with Myanmar’s GDP in 2022 estimated to be 13 percent smaller than three years earlier. The agricultural sector also changed accordingly during this period.
Book Synopsis Strengthening smallholder agriculture is essential to defend food and nutrition security and rural livelihoods in Myanmar against the COVID-19 threat: Elements for a proactive response by : Boughton, Duncan
Download or read book Strengthening smallholder agriculture is essential to defend food and nutrition security and rural livelihoods in Myanmar against the COVID-19 threat: Elements for a proactive response written by Boughton, Duncan and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-04-16 with total page 11 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is an urgent need to anticipate and mitigate the threat posed by COVID-19 to Myanmar’s agricultural sector and to rural households that depend on farming for income and for food and nutrition security. We evaluate options to address the threat and to support farmers to prepare their land and plant their crops on time in the short window before the start of the 2020 monsoon cropping season. Recognizing that no single intervention can address the full range of vulnerabilities faced by rural households, we recommend a combination: • Expansion of access to seasonal farm credit with extended loan repayment schedules; • Limited agricultural input subsidies targeting certified seed; and • Implementation of a cash transfer program to smallholder farmers. Despite the high cost of a cash transfer program, there are good reasons to expect that the benefits of such support to farm households will outweigh program costs in monetary terms – even more so if the economic benefits from the consequent lower incidence of malnutrition to which the program would contribute can be measured.
Author :Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Publisher :Food & Agriculture Org. ISBN 13 :9251364257 Total Pages :56 pages Book Rating :4.2/5 (513 download)
Book Synopsis Myanmar | Shocks, agricultural livelihoods and food security by : Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Download or read book Myanmar | Shocks, agricultural livelihoods and food security written by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and published by Food & Agriculture Org.. This book was released on 2022-06-27 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report shares the results of a joint analysis by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) on the agrifood system in Myanmar based on an assessment conducted from August to September 2021. The report analyses the effects of a range of natural and human-induced shocks on the agrifood system in Myanmar and shares the results of a field assessment in which 2 708 household interviews were conducted. The assessment covered 147 townships in nine states and regions: Mon, Chin, Kachin, Kayin, Kayah, Rakhine, Sagaing, Shan and Yangon; data were collected between August and September 2021, complemented by a survey of food traders and input retailers.
Author :Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) Publisher :Intl Food Policy Res Inst ISBN 13 : Total Pages :13 pages Book Rating :4./5 ( download)
Book Synopsis Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: The rising costs of diets and declining purchasing power of casual wage laborers: June 2020 - February 2023 by : Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA)
Download or read book Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: The rising costs of diets and declining purchasing power of casual wage laborers: June 2020 - February 2023 written by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2023-04-24 with total page 13 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We assess changes in food prices and purchasing power of casual wage laborers based on large-scale surveys of food vendors (fielded from June 2020 until February 2023) and households in rural and urban areas and in all state/regions of Myanmar. Key findings Over the full period (June 2020 - February 2023), the cost of the healthy diet rose by 72 percent and the common diet by 82 percent. Prices for rice –the major staple– increased by 62 percent between March 2022 and February 2023. The costs of a common and healthy diet increased especially over the year 2022, by 50 and 51 percent respectively between Q1 of 2022 and Q4 of 2022. Diet costs increased more in rural areas compared to urban areas and more in the Dry Zone and coastal areas – which are more affected by conflicts – compared to the national average. The value of daily wages of construction and agricultural wage laborers relative to common and healthy diet costs declined by about 25 and 28 percent over the year 2022. Food costs are outpacing wages, making food increasingly unaffordable for wage earners who are among the most vulnerable household groups in Myanmar, particularly in rural areas. Recommended actions Food should be available at low costs to avoid food insecurity and nutrition problems in the country; assuring a well-functioning agri-food system should therefore be a priority for all stakeholders. Casual wage workers are among the poorest and their situation is worsening. They should therefore be targeted in social safety net programs. It is important to closely monitor food prices and the wages of the poor - they are good proxies for purchasing power and welfare and can be measured at high frequency.
Author :Center for Development Research (ZEF), University of Bonn Publisher :Intl Food Policy Res Inst ISBN 13 : Total Pages :6 pages Book Rating :4./5 ( download)
Book Synopsis Revitalized agriculture for balanced growth and resilient livelihoods by : Center for Development Research (ZEF), University of Bonn
Download or read book Revitalized agriculture for balanced growth and resilient livelihoods written by Center for Development Research (ZEF), University of Bonn and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2016-08-03 with total page 6 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The purpose of this policy brief is to provide national and state-level policymakers, private sector investors, civil society and donors with an analysis of the rural economy of Mon State and pathways to improved prosperity for its population. The analysis is based on a representative survey (the Mon State Rural Household Survey 2015) of 1680 rural households, which comprise 73% of Mon State’s 2 million residents, and extensive interviews with farmers, traders, processors, local leaders and government officials.
Author :Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Publisher :Food & Agriculture Org. ISBN 13 :9251345821 Total Pages :52 pages Book Rating :4.2/5 (513 download)
Book Synopsis Myanmar | Agricultural livelihoods and food security in the context of COVID-19 by : Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Download or read book Myanmar | Agricultural livelihoods and food security in the context of COVID-19 written by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and published by Food & Agriculture Org.. This book was released on 2021-06-22 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report shares the results of a joint analysis by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) on the agri-food system in Myanmar based on an assessment conducted from August to October 2020. The analysis was part of a broader initiative to contribute to data collection and analysis linked to COVID-19, informing evidence-based programming in selected countries. Its objective was to assess the effects of COVID-19 on Myanmar’s agri-food system, which includes livestock and fishing, food supplies, livelihoods and the food security of rural people at the national level. Information is collected from primary sources of the production process: producer households, traders or marketers, inputs suppliers, extension officers and key informants. The first round of data collection has been completed, with Rounds II and III taking place in 2021. This assessment covered 75 townships in eight states and regions: Mon, Chin, Kachin, Kayin, Rakhine, Sagaing, Shan and Yangon; data were collected between mid-August to mid-October 2020, complemented by a survey of input vendors. This report was made possible by the support of the American People through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents of this report are the sole responsibility of FAO and WFP, and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.
Author :Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD) Publisher :Intl Food Policy Res Inst ISBN 13 : Total Pages :55 pages Book Rating :4./5 ( download)
Book Synopsis Based on 0 rating(s) Title Revitalized agriculture for balanced growth and resilient livelihoods by : Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Download or read book Based on 0 rating(s) Title Revitalized agriculture for balanced growth and resilient livelihoods written by Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD) and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2016-09-20 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The purpose of this report is to provide national- and state-level policymakers, private-sector investors, civil society, and donors with an analysis of the rural economy of Mon State and pathways to improved prosperity for its population. The analysis is based on a representative survey of rural households, which make up 73 percent of Mon State’s 2 million residents, and extensive interviews with farmers, traders, processors, local leaders, and government officials. Whereas some parts of the Mon State economy are quite dynamic, such as construction, others are stagnant and far from reaching their full potential. Furthermore, the dynamic sectors are heavily dependent on remittances from migrants to neighboring countries. The current pattern of donor investment is heavily focused on necessary infrastructure and energy investments, but with only very limited support to productive sectors, especially agriculture and fisheries. Major investments in education, both formal and vocational training, are also necessary to support the growth of a modern economy. The analysis in this report identifies options for more balanced growth, leading to a vibrant economy in which returning migrants can invest and find employment.
Book Synopsis Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Food vendors - March 2022 by : Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA)
Download or read book Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Food vendors - March 2022 written by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2022-05-10 with total page 7 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Research Note presents the results of recent interviews with food vendors in rural and urban areas and in all state/regions of Myanmar as a part of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS) telephone survey (MAPSA 2022a). The purpose of the food vendor component of the MHWS is to provide data and insights to interested stakeholders in order that they better understand the effects of shocks related to COVID-19 and the ongoing political crisis on Myanmar’s food markets. In particular, the note explores (nominal) prices of foods and difficulties in food vendor operations due to the COVID-19 and political crises.
Author :Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) Publisher :Intl Food Policy Res Inst ISBN 13 : Total Pages :6 pages Book Rating :4./5 ( download)
Book Synopsis Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Rice millers – April 2021 survey round by : Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA)
Download or read book Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Rice millers – April 2021 survey round written by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-06-01 with total page 6 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rice mills are the most important link in Myanmar’s rice value chain. Mills buy paddy from farmers and process it into rice, the primary staple of Myanmar accounting for more than 50 percent of calories consumed in the country. Thus, disruptions to the milling sector have important upstream implications for farm incomes as well as downstream implications for household food security. In this Research Note, we present results and analysis of recent economic disruptions to rice mills from an April 2021 round of a telephone panel survey of 445 millers in Ayeyarwady, Bago, and Yangon. We examine (i) disruptions caused by the current political and COVID-19 crises; (ii) responses to these disruptions; and (iii) and price changes for paddy, head rice, broken rice, and rice bran in April 2021 relative to April 2020 and to January 2021, prior to the political crisis that began on 1 February.
Author :Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) Publisher :Intl Food Policy Res Inst ISBN 13 : Total Pages :15 pages Book Rating :4./5 ( download)
Book Synopsis Livelihoods, poverty, and food insecurity in Myanmar: Survey evidence from June 2020 to December 2021 by : Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA)
Download or read book Livelihoods, poverty, and food insecurity in Myanmar: Survey evidence from June 2020 to December 2021 written by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2022-02-02 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ten rounds of the Rural-Urban Food Security Survey (RUFSS) have been conducted between June 2020 and December 2021 to assess the impacts of Myanmar’s economic, political, and health crises on various dimensions of household welfare. RUFSS interviews about 2000 mothers of young children per round from urban Yangon, the rural Dry Zone, and recent migrants from these areas.
Author :Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) Publisher :Intl Food Policy Res Inst ISBN 13 : Total Pages :11 pages Book Rating :4./5 ( download)
Book Synopsis Livelihoods, poverty, and food insecurity in Myanmar: Household survey evidence from May 2021 by : Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA)
Download or read book Livelihoods, poverty, and food insecurity in Myanmar: Household survey evidence from May 2021 written by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-06-22 with total page 11 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Six rounds of the Rural-Urban Food Security Survey (RUFSS) conducted in 2020 demonstrated the impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on poverty and food insecurity among approximately 2,000 households with pregnant women or young children in urban Yangon and the rural Dry Zone. In this Research Note, we present results from a follow-up round conducted in May 2021.
Author :Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) Publisher :Intl Food Policy Res Inst ISBN 13 : Total Pages :15 pages Book Rating :4./5 ( download)
Book Synopsis Livelihoods, poverty, and food insecurity in Myanmar: Survey evidence from June 2020 to September 2021 by : Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA)
Download or read book Livelihoods, poverty, and food insecurity in Myanmar: Survey evidence from June 2020 to September 2021 written by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-12-23 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Key Findings Nine rounds of the Rural-Urban Food Security Survey (RUFSS) have been conducted between June 2020 and September 2021 to assess the impacts of Myanmar’s economic, political, and health crises on various dimensions of household welfare. RUFSS interviews about 2000 mothers of young children per round from urban Yangon, the rural Dry Zone, and recent migrants from these areas. Key Findings ▪ Myanmar has experienced four distinct economic shocks since early 2020. The most recent of these shocks–the spread of the Delta variant–was devastating, with 63 percent of respondents stating that at least one household member had experienced COVID-like symptoms and almost all cases occurring in the May-September 2021 third wave. ▪ 16 percent of interviewed households moved townships between their first interview and September 2021. Around two-thirds of these were from the Yangon sample. ▪ Physical insecurity has emerged as a key impact of political instability, with 53 percent of responde
Author :Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) Publisher :Intl Food Policy Res Inst ISBN 13 : Total Pages :9 pages Book Rating :4./5 ( download)
Book Synopsis Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Rice millers – August 2022 survey round by : Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA)
Download or read book Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Rice millers – August 2022 survey round written by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2022-11-16 with total page 9 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In August 2022, we surveyed 467 active rice millers from 13 states and regions across Myanmar to learn more about the impacts of the current political and COVID-19 crises. This report presents the key results and analysis from those interviews. Key findings Electricity and fuel disruptions were cited as the most significant disruption by 91 percent of millers in August 2022. Rising fuel prices and access issues afflicted smaller, local mills while larger mills were more affected by interruptions in electricity supplies. Continuing a trend from March 2022, banking and credit disruptions were less prevalent in August. Lending and borrowing show only minor changes relative to 2021. Average milling throughput declined by more than 20 percent compared to a year prior, and stored volumes of both paddy and rice showed similar declines. Rice prices and milling margins increased sharply by about 40 percent compared to last year, driven by rising global prices, and, most importantly, by a rapid devaluation of Myanmar kyat. In USD terms, the price increases are more modest and closer to global changes. At the parallel (unofficial) exchange rate, prices have declined. Prices of byproducts (in kyats) have also increased sharply from the last year, especially for rice bran which is important to the animal feed industry. Looking forward Looking forward to the 2022 monsoon harvest and marketing season, over half of all millers expect a decline in paddy production of at least 10 percent in their townships and an additional 22 percent of millers expect a smaller decline. Just 3 percent expect their local paddy production to be higher in 2022 monsoon than in 2021. Changes in input use (e.g., a decline in fertilizer application) are far and away the most cited reason for lower expected paddy production. Half of millers said that less favorable rainfall patterns compared to 2021 are also a factor in lower paddy production. On top of lower reported throughput in August 2022 and lower storage volumes, a decline in monsoon paddy production would have large implications for both rural and urban households. Lower supply coupled with the continued and widespread disruptions to utilities and transport, could drive prices even higher. At the same time, unpredictable foreign exchange and export policies could make it difficult for value chain actors to anticipate supply and demand conditions, resulting in higher price volatility.
