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Life Cycles And Long Waves
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Book Synopsis The Long Wave in Economic Life by : J.J. Van Duijn
Download or read book The Long Wave in Economic Life written by J.J. Van Duijn and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-11-05 with total page 254 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Of all fluctuations in economic activity, the long wave or Kondratieff cycle is easily the most puzzling and least understood one. Does it really exist, and if so, is it only a cycle in prices or a cycle in economic activity at large? What causes it, and has it been confined to Europe or does it affect the world economy as a whole? These questions, which seemed of little relevance in the prosperous years of the postwar growth era, have gained new importance since 1973. With the downturn of the long wave, interest in it has enjoyed a revival, as it did in the 1930s. A great number of publications on the long wave have appeared since 1973, many of which have added to our insight of what causes the recurrent alternations of growth acceleration and retardation. This book is the first in the English language in which all important long wave theories, old as well as recent, are brought together. It focuses on the long wave as an international phenomenon, affecting all industrialised countries. It contains new theory as well as empirical evidence and in the final section suggests a number of policy recommendations to generate innovation. This book offers an interpretation of long-term economic development different from those commonly found in the literature. It will be of interest to students and scholars of the economics of growth and change, as well as to economic historians and policy-makers. This book was first published in 1983.
Book Synopsis The Long Waves in Economic Life by : Nikolai D. Kondratieff
Download or read book The Long Waves in Economic Life written by Nikolai D. Kondratieff and published by Ravenio Books. This book was released on with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: THE idea that the dynamics of economic life in the capitalistic social order is not of a simple and linear but rather of a complex and cyclical character is nowadays generally recognized. Science, however, has fallen far short of clarifying the nature and the types of these cyclical, wave-like movements. When in economics we speak of cycles, we generally mean seven to eleven year business cycles. But these seven to eleven year movements are obviously not the only type of economic cycles. The dynamics of economic life is in reality more complicated. In addition to the above-mentioned cycles, which we shall agree to call “intermediate,” the existence of still shorter waves of about three and one-half years’ length has recently been shown to be probable. But that is not all. There is, indeed, reason to assume the existence of long waves of an average length of about 50 years in the capitalistic economy, a fact which still further complicates the problem of economic dynamics.
Book Synopsis The Sixth Kondratieff by : Leo Nefiodow
Download or read book The Sixth Kondratieff written by Leo Nefiodow and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2017-04-19 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What are the major new growth markets of the future? Why do groundbreaking innovations - like the computer, the automobile or the steam engine in the past - increasingly fail to materialize? What are the current growth barriers that hinder the further development of economy and society? The reader will find answers to these questions in this book. The Theory of Long Waves serves as a scientific foundation. In short, it states that economic and social development is significantly determined by periodic cycles that last between 40 and 60 years. In honor of their discoverer Nikolai Kondratieff, these long waves are called Kondratieff cycles. Since the late 18th century, economists have empirically proven five Kondratieff cycles. The long waves have a particularly strategic role: those, who identify the respective current Kondratieff cycle early on are able to focus on the future, to take the lead in economic and social development and benefit the most from its momentum - just like the leading command of information technology during the last, the fifth Kondratieff cycle made full employment and increasing wealth possible for these countries. The sixth Kondratieff cycle has begun with the turn of this century. As the analyses in this book show, health care will be the driving force of this new Kondratieff cycle. However, health is not just seen in a physical, but also in a holistic sense, encompassing the physical, psychological, mental, psycho-mental, social, ecological and spiritual aspects. Why are health expenditures that were previously considered a mere cost factor going to assume the role of a growth locomotive in the future? We need to recall the findings of modern growth theory here: the most important source for economic growth in developed countries is productivity advancements. The analyses in this book show that a new understanding of health is indispensable to improve productivity on all levels of the economy and society. Thanks to this new understanding, health will become a strategic weapon for the next decades. This book is tailored to a general audience, includes 76 graphics and 13 tables and is aimed at stakeholders in economy and society, experts and managers and all those, who are interested in the future. Aside from a profound analysis, the book also describes measures to develop the sixth Kondratieff.
Book Synopsis The Life Cycles of Extratropical Cyclones by : Melyvn Shapiro
Download or read book The Life Cycles of Extratropical Cyclones written by Melyvn Shapiro and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-04-01 with total page 427 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents the expanded versions of invited papers presented at the International Symposium on the Life Cycles of Extratropical Cyclones, held in Bergen, Norway, 27 June–1 July 1994. It is of particular interest to historians of meteorology, researchers and forecasters. The material can be used for advanced undergraduate and undergraduate meteorology courses, and it represents a useful source of references to extratropical cyclones. The book provides the historical background of extratropical cyclone research and forecasting from the eighteenth to the mid-twentieth century. It also presents extratropical cyclone theory, observations, analysis, diagnosis and prediction.
Book Synopsis The Long Wave Cycle by : Николай Дмитриевич Кондратьев
Download or read book The Long Wave Cycle written by Николай Дмитриевич Кондратьев and published by [New York] : Richardson & Snyder. This book was released on 1984 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Economic Long Wave by : John Sterman
Download or read book The Economic Long Wave written by John Sterman and published by Franklin Classics. This book was released on 2018-10-15 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. To ensure a quality reading experience, this work has been proofread and republished using a format that seamlessly blends the original graphical elements with text in an easy-to-read typeface. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Book Synopsis The Long Wave in the World Economy by : Andrew Tylecote
Download or read book The Long Wave in the World Economy written by Andrew Tylecote and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-09-13 with total page 353 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Long waves are cycles of some fifty years duration in which a period of rapid expansion is followed by one of slow growth of stagnation. This book provides a critical examination of long wave theory and an original explanation of long fluctuations which is highly relevant to the current crisis in the world economy.
Book Synopsis The Sixth Wave by : James Bradfield Moody
Download or read book The Sixth Wave written by James Bradfield Moody and published by ReadHowYouWant.com. This book was released on 2010 with total page 406 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally published: Vintage/Random House Australia, 2010, 2010.
Book Synopsis Weber, Schumpeter and Modern Capitalism by : John Love
Download or read book Weber, Schumpeter and Modern Capitalism written by John Love and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-07-20 with total page 265 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides the groundwork for a general theory of modern capitalism by reinterpreting Max Weber’s work on the origins and institutional underpinnings of modern capitalism, and Joseph Schumpeter’s thought on the mechanisms and functioning of the capitalist economy. Focusing on the lesser-known works of both figures, particularly in the case of Weber, whose writings on economics and economic history are frequently overlooked, the author contends that a combination of Schumpeter’s and Weber’s theoretical schemas, incorporating their many valuable insights, provides the basis of a unified, overall theory of modern capitalism that is comprehensive, coherent and persuasive. With attention to the important theoretical connections between Weber and Schumpeter and the respective contributions of both with regard to the nature and workings of capitalism, the author explores the compatibility of the two approaches, arguing that the full significance of the contributions of the two writers has not been adequately appreciated. A systematic and sympathetic comparison and synthesis of the contributions of two of the central figures in social and economic theory, which highlights the enduring relevance of their work in times of political and economic crisis, Weber, Schumpeter and Modern Capitalism will appeal to scholars across the social sciences with interests in social and economic theory, classical sociology and economic history.
Book Synopsis New Findings in Long-Wave Research by : Alfred Klienknecht
Download or read book New Findings in Long-Wave Research written by Alfred Klienknecht and published by Springer. This book was released on 1993-02-12 with total page 355 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents new methods for the analysis of time series and the identification of long waves. In Part One it is shown that new time series analyses confirm the existence of Kondratieff long waves in economic growth for the 19th and 20th centuries. Part Two presents evidence on long waves in aggregate profit rates for selected major industrialized countries. Part Three covers theoretical discussions and attempts at modeling social, economic and technological factors in long waves.
Book Synopsis The Life Cycle Hypothesis by : Tony Plummer
Download or read book The Life Cycle Hypothesis written by Tony Plummer and published by Harriman House Limited. This book was released on 2018-03-05 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Life Cycle Hypothesis provides evidence of an ordered process behind the apparent randomness of financial asset price movements, economic fluctuations, and social trends. It shows how genuine information will have a dramatic effect on any system into which it is inserted, and will generate reactions that are essentially pre-programmed. These reactions involve the processes of advance and decline, and therefore embrace a set of specific lower-order fluctuations. Financial and economic analysts have long been familiar with the resulting phenomena, but have had difficulty providing a satisfactory explanation. The Life Cycle Hypothesis builds on the findings of Tony Plummer's previous book, The Law of Vibration, and shows that nature itself contains the answer. There is a universal blueprint that manages growth, that organises evolution, and that contends with decline. In effect, the shock of fresh information creates a new organism whose energy travels along a natural pathway between birth and death. It is this pathway that generates such widely diverse phenomena as personal mid-life crises, the swarming of innovations, recurring patterns in financial markets, and rhythmic oscillations in national economies. It is this pathway that produced the Great Depression of the 1930s, the inflation trauma of the 1970s, and the global financial crisis of 2007-08. The same pathway now suggests that there may be a major global crisis in the early years of the next decade. The Life Cycle Hypothesis has the potential to change the way that we understand the world. It will therefore have a natural appeal for investors, economists, and social scientists. It will also be of great interest to those who sense a connection between the diverse social and political upheavals that are currently impacting us, and who want to understand the forces at work.
Book Synopsis Technology and Global Change by : Arnulf Grübler
Download or read book Technology and Global Change written by Arnulf Grübler and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2003-10-16 with total page 468 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first book to comprehensibly describe how technology has shaped society and the environment over the last 200 years. It will be useful for researchers, as a textbook for graduate students, for people engaged in long-term policy planning in industry and government, for environmental activists, and for the wider public interested in history, technology, or environmental issues.
Book Synopsis Uncertainty Deconstructed by : Bruce Garvey
Download or read book Uncertainty Deconstructed written by Bruce Garvey and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-08-26 with total page 316 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book argues that uncertainty is not really uncertainty at all but just demonstrates a lack of vision and willingness to think about the unthinkable – good and bad. The task of accepting that uncertainty is about exploring the possible, rather than the impossible has to be taken on board by strategists, policy developers, and political leaders, if we are to meet the challenges that an ever changing world is throwing at us. The term “unknown – unknowns” is ubiquitous, albeit the vast majority of future uncertain events do not fall into this category. However, it has been used to absolve decision makers from criticism post-event, whereas poor foresight is the prime culprit and that most future uncertainties are “known-unknowns” or “inevitable surprises”. This re-positioning of uncertainties can help mitigate the impact of such risks through better foresight aware contingency planning. The enemy is not uncertainty itself but our lack of imagination when trying to visualize the future – we need to transform our behaviour. To better understand uncertainty we have to deconstruct it and get to grips with its component parts. Three main questions are posed and practical approaches presented: What are the main structural components that make up the conditions under which uncertainty operates? What scenario lenses can be used when exploring uncertainty? What behavioural factors do we need to consider when analysing the human responses to uncertainty? Practitioners, having to deal with making better decisions under uncertainty, will find the book a useful guide. Endorsements for the book: "With this book, Bruce Garvey performs a great service for consultants, planners and, indeed, anyone whose job involves a degree of speculation about what will happen in the future. Through a comprehensive survey of methods, tools and techniques, he provides a practical guide to unpacking the uncertainty that besets all human endeavour. This is no dry academic treatise: it deals with highly contemporary topics such as “fake news” – part of a fascinating dissection of “dark data” – and how our biases and preconceptions shape our views. The book finishes with three case studies dealing with the Covid-19 pandemic, social mobility and inequality, and achieving net zero – all topics that are sorely in need of the critical thinking and analysis skills described previously. No one can completely eliminate “20:20 hindsight” from all business decisions but readers applying the lessons of this book may find themselves saying “if only we’d known...” less frequently." -- Nick Bush, Director - CMCE (Centre for Management Consulting Excellence) "Academic literature and practical guides to uncertainty management are disparate: this exciting edition brings it all together. Principal author, Bruce Garvey, recognises the erroneous attribution of many recent events to unforeseeable uncertainty (‘unknown unknowns’), calling these out as inevitable surprises (or ‘unknown knowns’), a category of uncertainty that is typically overlooked. Garvey describes critical dimensions of uncertainty, before examining scenarios and behavioural aspects, the latter being a ‘hidden influencer’ which is too often neglected. The guidebook contains a variety of methods, tools and techniques, including several that deserve more use, and contains a detailed glossary and reference list. Practical advice covers topics such as identifying weak signals for use in scenario development and overcoming cognitive dissonance. This well-structured and engagingly written guide should serve as a standard text for students, academics and practitioners across policy making, business, and industry." -- Dr. Geoff Darch, Water Resources Strategy Manager, Anglian Water. Co-Founder, Analysis under Uncertainty for Decision-Makers (AU4DM) Network "This is a valuable companion volume to John Kay and Mervyn King's Radical Uncertainty - and it is a necessary corrective to the physics envy of disciplines such as economics which achieve a false sense of certainty by creating highly plausible but unreliable simplifications of things through over generalisation - leading to simplistic proposals for interventions which can only rightly be judged through a lens of complexity and probability. I would like to be more optimistic about the ultimate effects of books of this kind - and in some fields, perhaps in military decision-making and defence I am quite optimistic. In such fields, people tend to approach decision-making through the assumption that things will go wrong, and that the effects of any mistakes will be very keenly, perhaps fatally experienced. In business and softer social policy-making, I fear the battle will be much harder. In such fields as politics and business, it is often better for the reputation "as Keynes remarked, "to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." In such fields, it is more important to make defensible decisions than to make good decisions, so an artificial sense of logical certainty will perhaps always hold an unhealthy appeal. But here's hoping anyway!" -- Rory Sutherland, Vice Chairman, Ogilvy Group "Here is a most insightful book, which holistically examines the ‘world of uncertainty', particularly as it impacts sense- to decision-making processes for many different stakeholders. Both scholars and practitioners, strategists to operators, soon gain from reading. Journeying from theory to practice, we embark on a comprehensive definition of uncertainty to subsequently become better equipped for its greater contemporary navigation when going forward, all elucidated by several well-structured scenarios and case-study examples. How uncertainty relates to risk (both qualitative and quantitative) is systematically charted, articulating their close interactivity. Forming a successful guide, this book has much enduring reference value and is therefore deserving of being readily retrievable as events and developments benefit from their improved understanding. Uncertainty can demonstrably be negotiated much more effectively. Alternative situations and conditions of denial, lamented as ‘we should have (fore)seen that’, no longer stand as acceptable when it comes to anticipating futures ahead. With this book, further help is now at hand." -- Adam D.M. Svendsen, PhD, International Intelligence & Defence Strategist, Researcher, Analyst, Educator & Consultant
Book Synopsis Raimo Väyrynen: A Pioneer in International Relations, Scholarship and Policy-Making by : Raimo Väyrynen
Download or read book Raimo Väyrynen: A Pioneer in International Relations, Scholarship and Policy-Making written by Raimo Väyrynen and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-01-03 with total page 634 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a broad overview of Professor Raimo Väyrynen’s academic work, his role in international research organizations, and his contributions to policy debates. It offers an interesting review of important political issues during the time span of half a century, from disarmament in Europe to the changing relationship between state sovereignty and transnational forces. Väyrynen has dealt with the changing agenda of peace and international relations, security and the arms race, and the world economy. This book provides comprehensive analyses of the regional and systemic structure of international relations, with the emphasis on conflicts and warfare between nations. It argues that while states, even smaller ones, still matter, transnational issues are increasingly important. Taking a historical perspective, the articles suggest that large-scale violence and arms races have been recurrent and cyclical phenomena in international relations. These events reflect the deep-seated inequalities in the political and economic systems which, moreover, vary considerably between regions. The publication is important reading for any researcher as well as students, policy-makers and the science-oriented public at large. • Traces the changing agenda of international relations from disarmament and the world economy to the changing relationship between state sovereignty and transnational forces. • Provides analyses of the regional and systemic structure in international relations, with the emphasis on conflicts and warfare. • Argues that large-scale violence and the arms race have been recurrent and cyclical phenomena in international relations. • Reviews important political issues from peace and conflict in Europe to the changing power relationship in the world.
Book Synopsis KONDRATIEFF WAVES by : Leonid E. Grinin
Download or read book KONDRATIEFF WAVES written by Leonid E. Grinin and published by ООО "Издательство "Учитель". This book was released on with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Though the researchers of the theory of long and medium-term cycles are certainly worried about the economic situation, they understand that the cyclicity still remains an inevitable attribute of economic development. And Juglar's aphorism that crisis is a consequence of the preceded prosperity is still true. In this third issue of the Yearbook ‘Kondratieff Waves’ with the subtitle ‘Cycles, Crises, and Forecasts’, we present a number of insight contributions on nature, egularities, and interconnections among cycles of different duration. Some economic cycles may result in a severe economic crisis. The current one shows once again the importance of the study of cyclical dynamics and its peculiarities. Between the 1980s and 1990s the Keynesian receipts were replaced by neoliberal and monetarist ones which seemed to be miraculous as well. The depleted growth was marked with the largest global crisis of 2008 which also showed that within globalization when regulation in the international arena is impossible yet, there recur the signs of Juglar cycles of the 19th and first half of the 20th centuries with their uncontrollable upwards and sharp declines evolving into collapses and panic. This is supported by the fact that for eight years the world has been at the depressive phase. This edition will be useful for economists, social scientists, as well as for a wide range of those interested in the problems of the past, present, and future of global economy and globalization. This research has been supported by the Russian Foundation for the Humanities (Project No 16-02-14053 г).
Book Synopsis The Long-Wave Debate by : Tibor Vasko
Download or read book The Long-Wave Debate written by Tibor Vasko and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 439 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The proceedings reflect the state-of-the-art of long-term fluctuations in economic growth as well as discussing promising areas of research in this field. The unique combination of participants from East and West (including the People's Republic of China) is a guarantee for wide coverage and unusual insights. The problems treated range from the identification of long-term fluctuations in developing and developed countries in both East and West to their relationship to important economic variables (profit, prices, money supply). Particular attention is focused on structural changes and the role of technological development in the light of the long-term fluctuation concept. It is interesting to follow the treatment of this issue by scientists with different orientations. The role of financial and monetary variables is also analyzed by leading researchers in the field.
Book Synopsis Innovation, Industrial Dynamics and Structural Transformation by : Uwe Cantner
Download or read book Innovation, Industrial Dynamics and Structural Transformation written by Uwe Cantner and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-03-08 with total page 412 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides an account of work in the Schumpeterian and evolutionary tradition of industrial dynamics and the evolution of industries. It is shown that over time industries evolve and change their structure. In this dynamic process, change is affected and sometimes constraint by many factors, including knowledge and technologies, the capabilities and incentives of actors, new products and processes, and institutions.
