Is There Information in the Volatility Skew?

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ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 43 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis Is There Information in the Volatility Skew? by : James Doran

Download or read book Is There Information in the Volatility Skew? written by James Doran and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the 1987 crash, option prices have exhibited a strong negative skew, implying higher implied volatility for out-of-the-money puts than at- and in-the-money puts. This has resulted in incorporating multiple jumps and stochastic volatility within the data generating process to improve the Black-Scholes model in an attempt to capture negative skewness and a highly leptokurtic distribution. The general conclusion is that there is a large jump premium in the short-term, which best explains the significant negative skew for short maturity options. Alternative explanations for the negative skew are related to market liquidity driven by demand shocks and supply shortages. Regardless of the explanation for the negative skew, we assess the information content in the shape of the skew to infer if the option market can accurately forecast stock market crashes and/or spikes upward. We demonstrate, using all options on the Samp;P 100 from 1996-2002, that the shape of the skew can reveal with significant probability when the market will quot;crashquot; or quot;spikequot;. However, we find the magnitude of the spike prediction is not economically significant. Our findings are strongest for the short-term out-of-the money puts, consistent with the notion of investors' aversion to large negative movements. We also find that the power of the quot;crash/spike predictionquot; decreases with an increase in the time to option maturity.

Inside Volatility Arbitrage

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118161025
Total Pages : 222 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (181 download)

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Book Synopsis Inside Volatility Arbitrage by : Alireza Javaheri

Download or read book Inside Volatility Arbitrage written by Alireza Javaheri and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-08-24 with total page 222 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Today?s traders want to know when volatility is a sign that the sky is falling (and they should stay out of the market), and when it is a sign of a possible trading opportunity. Inside Volatility Arbitrage can help them do this. Author and financial expert Alireza Javaheri uses the classic approach to evaluating volatility -- time series and financial econometrics -- in a way that he believes is superior to methods presently used by market participants. He also suggests that there may be "skewness" trading opportunities that can be used to trade the markets more profitably. Filled with in-depth insight and expert advice, Inside Volatility Arbitrage will help traders discover when "skewness" may present valuable trading opportunities as well as why it can be so profitable.

McMillan on Options

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118045882
Total Pages : 672 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (18 download)

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Book Synopsis McMillan on Options by : Lawrence G. McMillan

Download or read book McMillan on Options written by Lawrence G. McMillan and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-02-15 with total page 672 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Legendary trader Larry McMillan does it-again-offering his personal options strategies for consistently enhancing trading profits Larry McMillan's name is virtually synonymous with options. This "Trader's Hall of Fame" recipient first shared his personal options strategies and techniques in the original McMillan on Options. Now, in a revised and Second Edition, this indispensable guide to the world of options addresses a myriad of new techniques and methods needed for profiting consistently in today's fast-paced investment arena. This thoroughly new Second Edition features updates in almost every chapter as well as enhanced coverage of many new and increasingly popular products. It also offers McMillan's personal philosophy on options, and reveals many of his previously unpublished personal insights. Readers will soon discover why Yale Hirsch of the Stock Trader's Almanac says, "McMillan is an options guru par excellence."

Implied Volatility Functions

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ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (258 download)

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Book Synopsis Implied Volatility Functions by : Bernard Dumas

Download or read book Implied Volatility Functions written by Bernard Dumas and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: Black and Scholes (1973) implied volatilities tend to be systematically related to the option's exercise price and time to expiration. Derman and Kani (1994), Dupire (1994), and Rubinstein (1994) attribute this behavior to the fact that the Black-Scholes constant volatility assumption is violated in practice. These authors hypothesize that the volatility of the underlying asset's return is a deterministic function of the asset price and time and develop the deterministic volatility function (DVF) option valuation model, which has the potential of fitting the observed cross-section of option prices exactly. Using a sample of S & P 500 index options during the period June 1988 through December 1993, we evaluate the economic significance of the implied deterministic volatility function by examining the predictive and hedging performance of the DV option valuation model. We find that its performance is worse than that of an ad hoc Black-Scholes model with variable implied volatilities.

The Volatility Smile

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118959167
Total Pages : 528 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (189 download)

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Book Synopsis The Volatility Smile by : Emanuel Derman

Download or read book The Volatility Smile written by Emanuel Derman and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-09-06 with total page 528 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Volatility Smile The Black-Scholes-Merton option model was the greatest innovation of 20th century finance, and remains the most widely applied theory in all of finance. Despite this success, the model is fundamentally at odds with the observed behavior of option markets: a graph of implied volatilities against strike will typically display a curve or skew, which practitioners refer to as the smile, and which the model cannot explain. Option valuation is not a solved problem, and the past forty years have witnessed an abundance of new models that try to reconcile theory with markets. The Volatility Smile presents a unified treatment of the Black-Scholes-Merton model and the more advanced models that have replaced it. It is also a book about the principles of financial valuation and how to apply them. Celebrated author and quant Emanuel Derman and Michael B. Miller explain not just the mathematics but the ideas behind the models. By examining the foundations, the implementation, and the pros and cons of various models, and by carefully exploring their derivations and their assumptions, readers will learn not only how to handle the volatility smile but how to evaluate and build their own financial models. Topics covered include: The principles of valuation Static and dynamic replication The Black-Scholes-Merton model Hedging strategies Transaction costs The behavior of the volatility smile Implied distributions Local volatility models Stochastic volatility models Jump-diffusion models The first half of the book, Chapters 1 through 13, can serve as a standalone textbook for a course on option valuation and the Black-Scholes-Merton model, presenting the principles of financial modeling, several derivations of the model, and a detailed discussion of how it is used in practice. The second half focuses on the behavior of the volatility smile, and, in conjunction with the first half, can be used for as the basis for a more advanced course.

Volatility Information Trading and Its Implications for Information Asymmetry, Option Spreads, and Implied Volatility Skew

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ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 125 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (913 download)

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Book Synopsis Volatility Information Trading and Its Implications for Information Asymmetry, Option Spreads, and Implied Volatility Skew by : Wei Quan

Download or read book Volatility Information Trading and Its Implications for Information Asymmetry, Option Spreads, and Implied Volatility Skew written by Wei Quan and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 125 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Information asymmetry is a critical element in today's financial markets. While asymmetric information related to directional information trading has been extensively studied in the existing literature, there is limited research and evidence on how volatility information trading impacts the options market. This dissertation studies, both theoretically and empirically, the behaviors of volatility information traders in options markets and the implications of their behaviors on information asymmetry and options pricing. I develop a model in which investors can trade multiple option contracts with varying strikes under an asymmetric framework. I show that volatility information trading is more likely to occur in Out of The Money (OTM) options if the overall presence of informed traders is low or if the relative liquidity in OTM options is better than At The Money (ATM) options. Moreover, I show that due to the variation in implicit leverage embedded in the option contracts, the OTM option contract contains a higher volatility information risk than the ATM option contract in equilibrium. In addition, I show that this volatility information risk differential plays a central role in forming the spread structure within an option series with the same underlying asset. Finally, I show that the shape of implied volatility skew (smile) is jointly determined by volatility uncertainty and heterogeneous information risk across the option contracts. I empirically examine the implications of my theory using US equity options data, including two intra-day trade and quote datasets from the Chicago Board Option Exchange (CBOE). I estimate the Volume-Synchronized Probability of Informed Trading (VPIN) variable to measure the volatility information risk in the option market. I show that OTM contracts, on average, have a higher probability of information trading than ATM contracts. I also document that volatility risk explains a considerable proportion of the spread variations in the US equity options market. Finally, I provide evidence that the difference in information asymmetry across strike prices not only helps to explain the dynamics of implied volatility skew but also has a significant impact on the degree to which a change in historical volatility affects the shape of the implied volatility skew.

The Volatility Surface

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118046455
Total Pages : 204 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (18 download)

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Book Synopsis The Volatility Surface by : Jim Gatheral

Download or read book The Volatility Surface written by Jim Gatheral and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-03-10 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for The Volatility Surface "I'm thrilled by the appearance of Jim Gatheral's new book The Volatility Surface. The literature on stochastic volatility is vast, but difficult to penetrate and use. Gatheral's book, by contrast, is accessible and practical. It successfully charts a middle ground between specific examples and general models--achieving remarkable clarity without giving up sophistication, depth, or breadth." --Robert V. Kohn, Professor of Mathematics and Chair, Mathematical Finance Committee, Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University "Concise yet comprehensive, equally attentive to both theory and phenomena, this book provides an unsurpassed account of the peculiarities of the implied volatility surface, its consequences for pricing and hedging, and the theories that struggle to explain it." --Emanuel Derman, author of My Life as a Quant "Jim Gatheral is the wiliest practitioner in the business. This very fine book is an outgrowth of the lecture notes prepared for one of the most popular classes at NYU's esteemed Courant Institute. The topics covered are at the forefront of research in mathematical finance and the author's treatment of them is simply the best available in this form." --Peter Carr, PhD, head of Quantitative Financial Research, Bloomberg LP Director of the Masters Program in Mathematical Finance, New York University "Jim Gatheral is an acknowledged master of advanced modeling for derivatives. In The Volatility Surface he reveals the secrets of dealing with the most important but most elusive of financial quantities, volatility." --Paul Wilmott, author and mathematician "As a teacher in the field of mathematical finance, I welcome Jim Gatheral's book as a significant development. Written by a Wall Street practitioner with extensive market and teaching experience, The Volatility Surface gives students access to a level of knowledge on derivatives which was not previously available. I strongly recommend it." --Marco Avellaneda, Director, Division of Mathematical Finance Courant Institute, New York University "Jim Gatheral could not have written a better book." --Bruno Dupire, winner of the 2006 Wilmott Cutting Edge Research Award Quantitative Research, Bloomberg LP

Stochastic Interest Rates

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Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1107002575
Total Pages : 171 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Stochastic Interest Rates by : Daragh McInerney

Download or read book Stochastic Interest Rates written by Daragh McInerney and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2015-08-13 with total page 171 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Designed for Master's students, this practical text strikes the right balance between mathematical rigour and real-world application.

Trading Volatility

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781461108757
Total Pages : 316 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (87 download)

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Book Synopsis Trading Volatility by : Colin Bennett

Download or read book Trading Volatility written by Colin Bennett and published by . This book was released on 2014-08-17 with total page 316 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This publication aims to fill the void between books providing an introduction to derivatives, and advanced books whose target audience are members of quantitative modelling community. In order to appeal to the widest audience, this publication tries to assume the least amount of prior knowledge. The content quickly moves onto more advanced subjects in order to concentrate on more practical and advanced topics. "A master piece to learn in a nutshell all the essentials about volatility with a practical and lively approach. A must read!" Carole Bernard, Equity Derivatives Specialist at Bloomberg "This book could be seen as the 'volatility bible'!" Markus-Alexander Flesch, Head of Sales & Marketing at Eurex "I highly recommend this book both for those new to the equity derivatives business, and for more advanced readers. The balance between theory and practice is struck At-The-Money" Paul Stephens, Head of Institutional Marketing at CBOE "One of the best resources out there for the volatility community" Paul Britton, CEO and Founder of Capstone Investment Advisors "Colin has managed to convey often complex derivative and volatility concepts with an admirable simplicity, a welcome change from the all-too-dense tomes one usually finds on the subject" Edmund Shing PhD, former Proprietary Trader at BNP Paribas "In a crowded space, Colin has supplied a useful and concise guide" Gary Delany, Director Europe at the Options Industry Council

The Volatility Surface

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ISBN 13 : 9781119202073
Total Pages : 179 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis The Volatility Surface by : Jim Gatheral

Download or read book The Volatility Surface written by Jim Gatheral and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 179 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Rookie's Guide to Options

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Publisher : Traders Press
ISBN 13 : 9781934354049
Total Pages : 248 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (54 download)

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Book Synopsis The Rookie's Guide to Options by : Mark D. Wolfinger

Download or read book The Rookie's Guide to Options written by Mark D. Wolfinger and published by Traders Press. This book was released on 2008 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Learn to use options from veteran option trader Mark D. Wolfinger, who spent more than 20 years on the floor of the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE). If you are a seasoned stock trader or a casual investor who dabbles in mutual funds, this book is for you.

Volatility Trading, + website

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470181990
Total Pages : 228 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (71 download)

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Book Synopsis Volatility Trading, + website by : Euan Sinclair

Download or read book Volatility Trading, + website written by Euan Sinclair and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-06-23 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Volatility Trading, Sinclair offers you a quantitative model for measuring volatility in order to gain an edge in your everyday option trading endeavors. With an accessible, straightforward approach. He guides traders through the basics of option pricing, volatility measurement, hedging, money management, and trade evaluation. In addition, Sinclair explains the often-overlooked psychological aspects of trading, revealing both how behavioral psychology can create market conditions traders can take advantage of-and how it can lead them astray. Psychological biases, he asserts, are probably the drivers behind most sources of edge available to a volatility trader. Your goal, Sinclair explains, must be clearly defined and easily expressed-if you cannot explain it in one sentence, you probably aren't completely clear about what it is. The same applies to your statistical edge. If you do not know exactly what your edge is, you shouldn't trade. He shows how, in addition to the numerical evaluation of a potential trade, you should be able to identify and evaluate the reason why implied volatility is priced where it is, that is, why an edge exists. This means it is also necessary to be on top of recent news stories, sector trends, and behavioral psychology. Finally, Sinclair underscores why trades need to be sized correctly, which means that each trade is evaluated according to its projected return and risk in the overall context of your goals. As the author concludes, while we also need to pay attention to seemingly mundane things like having good execution software, a comfortable office, and getting enough sleep, it is knowledge that is the ultimate source of edge. So, all else being equal, the trader with the greater knowledge will be the more successful. This book, and its companion CD-ROM, will provide that knowledge. The CD-ROM includes spreadsheets designed to help you forecast volatility and evaluate trades together with simulation engines.

Recent Advances in Applied Probability

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 0387233946
Total Pages : 497 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (872 download)

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Book Synopsis Recent Advances in Applied Probability by : Ricardo Baeza-Yates

Download or read book Recent Advances in Applied Probability written by Ricardo Baeza-Yates and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-02-28 with total page 497 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Applied probability is a broad research area that is of interest to scientists in diverse disciplines in science and technology, including: anthropology, biology, communication theory, economics, epidemiology, finance, geography, linguistics, medicine, meteorology, operations research, psychology, quality control, sociology, and statistics. Recent Advances in Applied Probability is a collection of survey articles that bring together the work of leading researchers in applied probability to present current research advances in this important area. This volume will be of interest to graduate students and researchers whose research is closely connected to probability modelling and their applications. It is suitable for one semester graduate level research seminar in applied probability.

What Does Implied Volatility Skew Measure?

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ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis What Does Implied Volatility Skew Measure? by : Scott Mixon

Download or read book What Does Implied Volatility Skew Measure? written by Scott Mixon and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides theoretical guidance and empirical analysis aimed at differentiating among implied volatility skew measures. Industry analysts and academics use a variety of measures, but most have little formal justification. I find that most commonly used skew measures are difficult to interpret without controlling for the levels of both volatility and kurtosis. Many ad hoc measures fail to meet the conditions for a valid skewness ordering. My preferred measure is the (25 delta put volatility - 25 delta call volatility)/50 delta volatility; among the measures considered, it is the most descriptive and least redundant.

Identifying the Fair Volatility Skew in Collar Pricing

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 170 pages
Book Rating : 4.E/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Identifying the Fair Volatility Skew in Collar Pricing by :

Download or read book Identifying the Fair Volatility Skew in Collar Pricing written by and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 170 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Inside Volatility Filtering

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118943996
Total Pages : 323 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (189 download)

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Book Synopsis Inside Volatility Filtering by : Alireza Javaheri

Download or read book Inside Volatility Filtering written by Alireza Javaheri and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-07-27 with total page 323 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A new, more accurate take on the classical approach to volatility evaluation Inside Volatility Filtering presents a new approach to volatility estimation, using financial econometrics based on a more accurate estimation of the hidden state. Based on the idea of "filtering", this book lays out a two-step framework involving a Chapman-Kolmogorov prior distribution followed by Bayesian posterior distribution to develop a robust estimation based on all available information. This new second edition includes guidance toward basing estimations on historic option prices instead of stocks, as well as Wiener Chaos Expansions and other spectral approaches. The author's statistical trading strategy has been expanded with more in-depth discussion, and the companion website offers new topical insight, additional models, and extra charts that delve into the profitability of applied model calibration. You'll find a more precise approach to the classical time series and financial econometrics evaluation, with expert advice on turning data into profit. Financial markets do not always behave according to a normal bell curve. Skewness creates uncertainty and surprises, and tarnishes trading performance, but it's not going away. This book shows traders how to work with skewness: how to predict it, estimate its impact, and determine whether the data is presenting a warning to stay away or an opportunity for profit. Base volatility estimations on more accurate data Integrate past observation with Bayesian probability Exploit posterior distribution of the hidden state for optimal estimation Boost trade profitability by utilizing "skewness" opportunities Wall Street is constantly searching for volatility assessment methods that will make their models more accurate, but precise handling of skewness is the key to true accuracy. Inside Volatility Filtering shows you a better way to approach non-normal distributions for more accurate volatility estimation.

Identifying the Volatility Skew in Collar Derivative Pricing

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 170 pages
Book Rating : 4.E/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Identifying the Volatility Skew in Collar Derivative Pricing by :

Download or read book Identifying the Volatility Skew in Collar Derivative Pricing written by and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 170 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: