Inflation Dynamics And The Great Recession

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Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession

Author : Laurence M. Ball
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1455263389
Total Pages : 58 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (552 download)

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Book Synopsis Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession by : Laurence M. Ball

Download or read book Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession written by Laurence M. Ball and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-06-01 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines inflation dynamics in the United States since 1960, with a particular focus on the Great Recession. A puzzle emerges when Phillips curves estimated over 1960-2007 are ussed to predice inflation over 2008-2010: inflation should have fallen by more than it did. We resolve this puzzle with two modifications of the Phillips curve, both suggested by theories of costly price adjustment: we measure core inflation with the median CPI inflation rate, and we allow the slope of the Phillips curve to change with the level and vairance of inflation. We then examine the hypothesis of anchored inflation expectations. We find that expectations have been fully "shock-anchored" since the 1980s, while "level anchoring" has been gradual and partial, but significant. It is not clear whether expectations are sufficiently anchored to prevent deflation over the next few years. Finally, we show that the Great Recession provides fresh evidence against the New Keynesian Phillips curve with rational expectations.

Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (124 download)

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Book Synopsis Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession by :

Download or read book Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession written by and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Great Recession and the Inflation Puzzle

Author : Mr.Troy Matheson
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484334728
Total Pages : 12 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis The Great Recession and the Inflation Puzzle by : Mr.Troy Matheson

Download or read book The Great Recession and the Inflation Puzzle written by Mr.Troy Matheson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-05-22 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Notwithstanding persistently-high unemployment following the Great Recession, inflation in the United States has been remarkably stable. We find that a traditional Phillips curve describes the behavior of inflation reasonably well since the 1960s. Using a non-linear Kalman filter that allows for time-varying parameters, we find that three factors have contributed to the observed stability of inflation: inflation expectations have become better anchored and to a lower level; the slope of the Phillips curve has flattened; and the importance of import-price inflation has increased.

Potential Output and Inflation Dynamics After the Great Recession

Author : Yu-Fan Huang
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 33 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis Potential Output and Inflation Dynamics After the Great Recession by : Yu-Fan Huang

Download or read book Potential Output and Inflation Dynamics After the Great Recession written by Yu-Fan Huang and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ever since the end of the Great Recession, the U.S. economy has experienced a period of mild inflation, which contradicts with the output-inflation relationship depicted by a traditional Phillips curve. This paper examines how the permanent output loss during the Great Recession has affected the ability of the Phillips curve to explain U.S. inflation dynamics. We find great similarity among several established trend-cycle decomposition methods: potential output declined substantially after the Great Recession. Due to the fact that a lower level of potential output implies a lesser deflationary pressure, we then show that the Phillips curve does predict a period of mild inflation. This finding is largely consistent with the observed data.

Did the Global Financial Crisis Break the U.S. Phillips Curve?

Author : Stefan Laseen
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475533845
Total Pages : 42 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Did the Global Financial Crisis Break the U.S. Phillips Curve? by : Stefan Laseen

Download or read book Did the Global Financial Crisis Break the U.S. Phillips Curve? written by Stefan Laseen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-09-07 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation dynamics, as well as its interaction with unemployment, have been puzzling since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). In this empirical paper, we use multivariate, possibly time-varying, time-series models and show that changes in shocks are a more salient feature of the data than changes in coefficients. Hence, the GFC did not break the Phillips curve. By estimating variations of a regime-switching model, we show that allowing for regime switching solely in coefficients of the policy rule would maximize the fit. Additionally, using a data-rich reduced-form model we compute conditional forecast scenarios. We show that financial and external variables have the highest forecasting power for inflation and unemployment, post-GFC.

Inflation Dynamics During the Financial Crisis

Author : Simon Gerard Gilchrist (Wirtschaftswissenschaftler)
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (94 download)

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Book Synopsis Inflation Dynamics During the Financial Crisis by : Simon Gerard Gilchrist (Wirtschaftswissenschaftler)

Download or read book Inflation Dynamics During the Financial Crisis written by Simon Gerard Gilchrist (Wirtschaftswissenschaftler) and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

After the Great Recession

Author : Barry Z. Cynamon
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1107015898
Total Pages : 359 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis After the Great Recession by : Barry Z. Cynamon

Download or read book After the Great Recession written by Barry Z. Cynamon and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013 with total page 359 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A collection of essays about the US Great Recession of 2007 to 2009 and the subsequent stagnation from prominent scholars.

Disequilibrium

Author : Steven Ricchiuto
Publisher : Greenleaf Book Group
ISBN 13 : 1626343977
Total Pages : 207 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (263 download)

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Book Synopsis Disequilibrium by : Steven Ricchiuto

Download or read book Disequilibrium written by Steven Ricchiuto and published by Greenleaf Book Group. This book was released on 2016-12-20 with total page 207 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Who caused the Great Recession? We did. In Disequilibrium,economist Steven Ricchiuto traces how destructive changes in our economic systems have created our present unbalanced economy. He expertly shows how today’s disequilibrium between supply and demand came from decades of misguided economic policies made in response to the Great Inflation of the 1970s and 1980s. Ricchiuto then goes even further, investigating how economic forces created in the World War II era laid the groundwork for this destructive shift. Ricchiuto's timely book offers a method for assessing macro economic credit quality and suggests policy makers alter their behavior to handle new macro dynamics. Today’s economic framework cannot be counted on to protect us forever. In Disequilibrium, Ricchiuto shows us where we went wrong in the past so that we can work to get the future right.

The Great Recession and Its Effects on Monetary Policy

Author : Geraldine Dany-Knedlik
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (16 download)

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Book Synopsis The Great Recession and Its Effects on Monetary Policy by : Geraldine Dany-Knedlik

Download or read book The Great Recession and Its Effects on Monetary Policy written by Geraldine Dany-Knedlik and published by . This book was released on 2018* with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Monetary policy; monetary transmission mechanism; financial markets and the macroeconomy; financial accelerator; inflation dynamics; Phillips curve; inflation expectations; nonlinear unobserved component model; structural TVP-VAR; Great Recession.

Understanding Post-COVID Inflation Dynamics

Author : Martin Harding
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 42 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Understanding Post-COVID Inflation Dynamics by : Martin Harding

Download or read book Understanding Post-COVID Inflation Dynamics written by Martin Harding and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-01-20 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose a macroeconomic model with a nonlinear Phillips curve that has a flat slope when inflationary pressures are subdued and steepens when inflationary pressures are elevated. The nonlinear Phillips curve in our model arises due to a quasi-kinked demand schedule for goods produced by firms. Our model can jointly account for the modest decline in inflation during the Great Recession and the surge in inflation during the Post-Covid period. Because our model implies a stronger transmission of shocks when inflation is high, it generates conditional heteroskedasticity in inflation and inflation risk. Hence, our model can generate more sizeable inflation surges due to cost-push and demand shocks than a standard linearized model. Finally, our model implies that the central bank faces a more severe trade-off between inflation and output stabilization when inflation is high.

Disequilibrium

Author : Steven Ricchiuto
Publisher : Greenleaf Book Group Press
ISBN 13 : 9781626343962
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (439 download)

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Book Synopsis Disequilibrium by : Steven Ricchiuto

Download or read book Disequilibrium written by Steven Ricchiuto and published by Greenleaf Book Group Press. This book was released on 2016-12-20 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Great Inflation and Its Aftermath

Author : Robert J. Samuelson
Publisher : Random House Trade Paperbacks
ISBN 13 : 0812980042
Total Pages : 353 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis The Great Inflation and Its Aftermath by : Robert J. Samuelson

Download or read book The Great Inflation and Its Aftermath written by Robert J. Samuelson and published by Random House Trade Paperbacks. This book was released on 2010-01-26 with total page 353 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Great Inflation in the 1960s and 1970s, notes award-winning columnist Robert J. Samuelson, played a crucial role in transforming American politics, economy, and everyday life. The direct consequences included stagnation in living standards, a growing belief—both in America and abroad—that the great-power status of the United States was ending, and Ronald Reagan’s election to the presidency in 1980. But that is only half the story. The end of high inflation led to two decades of almost uninterrupted economic growth, rising stock prices and ever-increasing home values. Paradoxically, this prolonged prosperity triggered the economic and financial collapse of 2008 and 2009 by making Americans—from bank executives to ordinary homeowners—overconfident, complacent, and careless. The Great Inflation and its Aftermath, Samuelson contends, demonstrated that we have not yet escaped the boom-and-bust cycles common in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. This is a sobering tale essential for anyone who wants to understand today’s world.

Economic Policy and the Great Stagflation

Author : Alan S. Blinder
Publisher : New York; Toronto : Academic Press
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 256 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Economic Policy and the Great Stagflation by : Alan S. Blinder

Download or read book Economic Policy and the Great Stagflation written by Alan S. Blinder and published by New York; Toronto : Academic Press. This book was released on 1979 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Monograph using economic theory to analyse errors in economic policy leading to economic recession and inflation in the USA during 1971 to 1976 - outlines basic concepts of stagflation such as aggregate supply and demand analysis and the trade-off between inflation and unemployment, examines recession dynamics (productivity, consumption and investment problems) and effects of rising prices, and presents economic analysis of wages-price controls, fiscal policy and monetary policy. Bibliography pp. 219 to 223 and graphs.

And Yet it Moves

Author : David Miles
Publisher : Geneva Reports on the World Ec
ISBN 13 : 9781912179053
Total Pages : 128 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (79 download)

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Book Synopsis And Yet it Moves by : David Miles

Download or read book And Yet it Moves written by David Miles and published by Geneva Reports on the World Ec. This book was released on 2018-10-30 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the last decade, the developed world has been hit by the deepest recession since the Great Depression and a rollercoaster in commodity prices. And yet, core inflation has been both low and fairly stable. A rule of thumb that inflation is always near 2%, though more often than not just a bit below, has been quite reliable. The young, or those with short memories, could be forgiven for looking condescendingly at their older friends who speak of inflation as a major economic problem. But, like Galileo Galilei told his contemporaries who thought the Earth was immovable, "Eppur si muove" ("and yet it moves"). Since most societies regard stable inflation as a goal, it is tempting to describe this solid anchoring of inflation as a great achievement of monetary policy. But what if it was just luck? Will the great anchoring soon lead a great bout of inflation, just as the Great Moderation was followed by the Great Recession? Do we need to change the way in which policy is set to better handle changed circumstances since the financial crash? The 19th Geneva Report on the World Economy starts by analysing outcomes across countries for the last ten years. Inflation is compared with its behaviour in the period before the financial crash to assess the extent to which it really has been stable, what the proximate causes are, and whether it will stay low in future. The report then assesses theories of inflation in light of these facts, and tries to make sense of them. Next, the report turns to the question we posed at the start: was it good policy or good luck that prevented severe deflation and kept inflation relatively steady? A description of what policies were adopted and how they interacted with economic shocks informs the conclusions on appropriate policies--both monetary and fiscal--for the future. The report pays particular attention tothe role of central banks and the extent of their activities.

Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy

Author : Jeff Fuhrer
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 026225820X
Total Pages : 517 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (622 download)

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Book Synopsis Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy by : Jeff Fuhrer

Download or read book Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy written by Jeff Fuhrer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2009-09-11 with total page 517 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Current perspectives on the Phillips curve, a core macroeconomic concept that treats the relationship between inflation and unemployment. In 1958, economist A. W. Phillips published an article describing what he observed to be the inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment; subsequently, the “Phillips curve” became a central concept in macroeconomic analysis and policymaking. But today's Phillips curve is not the same as the original one from fifty years ago; the economy, our understanding of price setting behavior, the determinants of inflation, and the role of monetary policy have evolved significantly since then. In this book, some of the top economists working today reexamine the theoretical and empirical validity of the Phillips curve in its more recent specifications. The contributors consider such questions as what economists have learned about price and wage setting and inflation expectations that would improve the way we use and formulate the Phillips curve, what the Phillips curve approach can teach us about inflation dynamics, and how these lessons can be applied to improving the conduct of monetary policy. Contributors Lawrence Ball, Ben Bernanke, Oliver Blanchard, V. V. Chari, William T. Dickens, Stanley Fischer, Jeff Fuhrer, Jordi Gali, Michael T. Kiley, Robert G. King, Donald L. Kohn, Yolanda K. Kodrzycki, Jane Sneddon Little, Bartisz Mackowiak, N. Gregory Mankiw, Virgiliu Midrigan, Giovanni P. Olivei, Athanasios Orphanides, Adrian R. Pagan, Christopher A. Pissarides, Lucrezia Reichlin, Paul A. Samuelson, Christopher A. Sims, Frank R. Smets, Robert M. Solow, Jürgen Stark, James H. Stock, Lars E. O. Svensson, John B. Taylor, Mark W. Watson

Confronting Policy Challenges of the Great Recession

Author : Eskander Alvi
Publisher : W.E. Upjohn Institute
ISBN 13 : 0880996366
Total Pages : 152 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (89 download)

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Book Synopsis Confronting Policy Challenges of the Great Recession by : Eskander Alvi

Download or read book Confronting Policy Challenges of the Great Recession written by Eskander Alvi and published by W.E. Upjohn Institute. This book was released on 2017-11-20 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a notable group of macroeconomists who describe the unprecedented events and often extraordinary policies put in place to limit the economic damage suffered during the Great Recession and then to put the economy back on track. Contributers include Barry Eichengreen; Gary Burtless; Donald Kohn; Laurence Ball, J. Bradford DeLong, and Lawrence H. Summers; and Kathryn M.E. Dominguez.

Inflation Dynamics During the Financial Crisis

Author : Simon Gilchrist
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 59 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (962 download)

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Book Synopsis Inflation Dynamics During the Financial Crisis by : Simon Gilchrist

Download or read book Inflation Dynamics During the Financial Crisis written by Simon Gilchrist and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: Using a novel dataset, which merges good-level prices underlying the PPI with the respondents' balance sheets, we show that liquidity constrained firms increased prices in 2008, while their unconstrained counterparts cut prices. We develop a model in which firms face financial frictions while setting prices in customer markets. Financial distortions create an incentive for firms to raise prices in response to adverse financial or demand shocks. This reaction reflects the firms' decisions to preserve internal liquidity and avoid accessing external finance, factors that strengthen the countercyclical behavior of markups and attenuate the response of inflation to fluctuations in output