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Author : Patricia C. O'Brien
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 17 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (183 download)
Download or read book Individual Forecasting Ability written by Patricia C. O'Brien and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Patricia C. O'Brien
Publisher : Forgotten Books
ISBN 13 : 9780484390729
Total Pages : 32 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (97 download)
Download or read book Individual Forecasting Ability (Classic Reprint) written by Patricia C. O'Brien and published by Forgotten Books. This book was released on 2017-12-22 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Excerpt from Individual Forecasting Ability The criterion I apply to evaluate forecasting ability is average accuracy on the portfolio of predictions made by an individual, through time. It is reasonable to presume that some firms' earnings are harder to forecast than others'. Since analysts may, to some extent, choose to predict earnings for some firms and not others, this endogenous selection is important to the specification of statistical tests. The results reported here remove the effects differential predictability across industries in comparing analysts. Evaluation of average portfolio accuracy through time is important in earnings forecast data. Each year, there is a relatively large component of unanticipated information which is common across firms, probably because of unanticipated economy-wide or industry-wide events. This common information is evident in the large, statistically significant year-by-year differences in (cross-sectional) average forecast errors. This general feature of earnings forecast data makes it difficult to distinguish between a lucky guess on a macro event and true forecasting ability at the micro level, when only short time-series are available.5 Current databases are rich in cross-sectional observations, but the number of years over which forecasts are available is still relatively small. This issue, and my treatment of it, is discussed further in section 3. About the Publisher Forgotten Books publishes hundreds of thousands of rare and classic books. Find more at www.forgottenbooks.com This book is a reproduction of an important historical work. Forgotten Books uses state-of-the-art technology to digitally reconstruct the work, preserving the original format whilst repairing imperfections present in the aged copy. In rare cases, an imperfection in the original, such as a blemish or missing page, may be replicated in our edition. We do, however, repair the vast majority of imperfections successfully; any imperfections that remain are intentionally left to preserve the state of such historical works.
Author : Patricia C O'Brien
Publisher : Palala Press
ISBN 13 : 9781342066107
Total Pages : 36 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (661 download)
Download or read book Individual Forecasting Ability written by Patricia C O'Brien and published by Palala Press. This book was released on 2015-09-09 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work. This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 030917340X
Total Pages : 189 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book Making Climate Forecasts Matter written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1999-05-27 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: El Nino has been with us for centuries, but now we can forcast it, and thus can prepare far in advance for the extreme climatic events it brings. The emerging ability to forecast climate may be of tremendous value to humanity if we learn how to use the information well. How does society cope with seasonal-to-interannual climatic variations? How have climate forecasts been usedâ€"and how useful have they been? What kinds of forecast information are needed? Who is likely to benefit from forecasting skill? What are the benefits of better forecasting? This book reviews what we know about these and other questions and identifies research directions toward more useful seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. In approaching their recommendations, the panel explores: Vulnerability of human activities to climate. State of the science of climate forecasting. How societies coevolved with their climates and cope with variations in climate. How climate information should be disseminated to achieve the best response. How we can use forecasting to better manage the human consequences of climate change.
Author : Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher : Crown
ISBN 13 : 080413670X
Total Pages : 331 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (41 download)
Download or read book Superforecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Crown. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Author : David M. Georgoff
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780000861047
Total Pages : 5 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (61 download)
Download or read book Manager's Guide to Forecasting written by David M. Georgoff and published by . This book was released on 1986-01-01 with total page 5 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : PATRICIA C. O'BRIEN
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 44 pages
Book Rating : 4.L/5 ( download)
Download or read book FORECAST ACCURACY OF INDIVIDUAL ANALYSTS IN NINE INDUSTRIES written by PATRICIA C. O'BRIEN and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Wendong Yang
Publisher : Frontiers Media SA
ISBN 13 : 2832504728
Total Pages : 328 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (325 download)
Download or read book Artificial Intelligence-Based Forecasting and Analytic Techniques for Environment and Economics Management written by Wendong Yang and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2022-11-09 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Francesco Ravazzolo
Publisher : Rozenberg Publishers
ISBN 13 : 9051709145
Total Pages : 198 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (517 download)
Download or read book Forecasting Financial Time Series Using Model Averaging written by Francesco Ravazzolo and published by Rozenberg Publishers. This book was released on 2007 with total page 198 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Believing in a single model may be dangerous, and addressing model uncertainty by averaging different models in making forecasts may be very beneficial. In this thesis we focus on forecasting financial time series using model averaging schemes as a way to produce optimal forecasts. We derive and discuss in simulation exercises and empirical applications model averaging techniques that can reproduce stylized facts of financial time series, such as low predictability and time-varying patterns. We emphasize that model averaging is not a "magic" methodology which solves a priori problems of poorly forecasting. Averaging techniques have an essential requirement: individual models have to fit data. In the first section we provide a general outline of the thesis and its contributions to previ ous research. In Chapter 2 we focus on the use of time varying model weight combinations. In Chapter 3, we extend the analysis in the previous chapter to a new Bayesian averaging scheme that models structural instability carefully. In Chapter 4 we focus on forecasting the term structure of U.S. interest rates. In Chapter 5 we attempt to shed more light on forecasting performance of stochastic day-ahead price models. We examine six stochastic price models to forecast day-ahead prices of the two most active power exchanges in the world: the Nordic Power Exchange and the Amsterdam Power Exchange. Three of these forecasting models include weather forecasts. To sum up, the research finds an increase of forecasting power of financial time series when parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and optimal decision making are included.
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 238 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (119 download)
Download or read book INDIVIDUAL FORECASTING AND AGGREGATE OUTCOMES written by and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : J.S. Armstrong
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9780792374015
Total Pages : 880 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (74 download)
Download or read book Principles of Forecasting written by J.S. Armstrong and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2001 with total page 880 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook summarises knowledge from experts and empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. Includes a comprehensive forecasting dictionary.
Author : Patricia C. O'Brien
Publisher : Forgotten Books
ISBN 13 : 9780332528458
Total Pages : 36 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (284 download)
Download or read book Forecast Accuracy of Individual Analysts written by Patricia C. O'Brien and published by Forgotten Books. This book was released on 2017-12-07 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Excerpt from Forecast Accuracy of Individual Analysts: A Nine-Industry Study Current databases of analysts' forecasts of corporate earnings include predictions from thousands of individuals employed at hundreds of financial service institutions. The purpose of this paper is to analyze whether it is possible to distinguish forecasters with superior ability on the basis of ex Egg; forecast accuracy from panel data. About the Publisher Forgotten Books publishes hundreds of thousands of rare and classic books. Find more at www.forgottenbooks.com This book is a reproduction of an important historical work. Forgotten Books uses state-of-the-art technology to digitally reconstruct the work, preserving the original format whilst repairing imperfections present in the aged copy. In rare cases, an imperfection in the original, such as a blemish or missing page, may be replicated in our edition. We do, however, repair the vast majority of imperfections successfully; any imperfections that remain are intentionally left to preserve the state of such historical works.
Author : Gloria González-Rivera
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1315510405
Total Pages : 511 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (155 download)
Download or read book Forecasting for Economics and Business written by Gloria González-Rivera and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-12-05 with total page 511 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For junior/senior undergraduates in a variety of fields such as economics, business administration, applied mathematics and statistics, and for graduate students in quantitative masters programs such as MBA and MA/MS in economics. A student-friendly approach to understanding forecasting. Knowledge of forecasting methods is among the most demanded qualifications for professional economists, and business people working in either the private or public sectors of the economy. The general aim of this textbook is to carefully develop sophisticated professionals, who are able to critically analyze time series data and forecasting reports because they have experienced the merits and shortcomings of forecasting practice.
Author : Irving I. Gringorten
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 74 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book A Program to Test Skill in Terminal Forecasting written by Irving I. Gringorten and published by . This book was released on 1955 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Manh Cuong Pham
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 37 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)
Download or read book A Comparison of the Forecasting Ability of Immediate Price Impact Models written by Manh Cuong Pham and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As a consequence of recent technological advances and the proliferation of algorithmic and high frequency trading, the cost of trading in financial markets has irrevocably changed. One important change relates to how trading affects prices; known as price impact. Price impact represents the largest cost associated with trading. Forecasting price impact is very important as it can provide estimates of trading profits after costs and also suggest optimal execution strategies. Although several models have recently been developed which may forecast the immediate price impact of individual trades, limited work has been done to compare their relative performance. We provide a comprehensive performance evaluation of these models and test for statistically significant outperformance amongst candidate models using out-of-sample forecasts. We find that normalizing price impact by its average value significantly enhances the performance of traditional non-normalized models as the normalization factor captures some of the dynamics of price impact.
Author : Ana Jesus Lopez-Menendez
Publisher : MDPI
ISBN 13 : 3039364871
Total Pages : 200 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (393 download)
Download or read book Entropy Application for Forecasting written by Ana Jesus Lopez-Menendez and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2020-12-29 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book shows the potential of entropy and information theory in forecasting, including both theoretical developments and empirical applications. The contents cover a great diversity of topics, such as the aggregation and combination of individual forecasts, the comparison of forecasting performance, and the debate concerning the tradeoff between complexity and accuracy. Analyses of forecasting uncertainty, robustness, and inconsistency are also included, as are proposals for new forecasting approaches. The proposed methods encompass a variety of time series techniques (e.g., ARIMA, VAR, state space models) as well as econometric methods and machine learning algorithms. The empirical contents include both simulated experiments and real-world applications focusing on GDP, M4-Competition series, confidence and industrial trend surveys, and stock exchange composite indices, among others. In summary, this collection provides an engaging insight into entropy applications for forecasting, offering an interesting overview of the current situation and suggesting possibilities for further research in this field.
Author : Graham Elliott
Publisher : Newnes
ISBN 13 : 0444536841
Total Pages : 719 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (445 download)
Download or read book Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Newnes. This book was released on 2013-08-23 with total page 719 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. - Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications - Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications - Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics
