Individual Expectations And Aggregate Macro Behavior

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Behavioral Rationality and Heterogeneous Expectations in Complex Economic Systems

Author : Cars Hommes
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139619780
Total Pages : 273 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (396 download)

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Book Synopsis Behavioral Rationality and Heterogeneous Expectations in Complex Economic Systems by : Cars Hommes

Download or read book Behavioral Rationality and Heterogeneous Expectations in Complex Economic Systems written by Cars Hommes and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013-01-24 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recognising that the economy is a complex system with boundedly rational interacting agents, the book presents a theory of behavioral rationality and heterogeneous expectations in complex economic systems and confronts the nonlinear dynamic models with empirical stylized facts and laboratory experiments. The complexity modeling paradigm has been strongly advocated since the late 1980s by some economists and by multidisciplinary scientists from various fields, such as physics, computer science and biology. More recently the complexity view has also drawn the attention of policy makers, who are faced with complex phenomena, irregular fluctuations and sudden, unpredictable market transitions. The complexity tools - bifurcations, chaos, multiple equilibria - discussed in this book will help students, researchers and policy makers to build more realistic behavioral models with heterogeneous expectations to describe financial market movements and macro-economic fluctuations, in order to better manage crises in a complex global economy.

Inflation Expectations

Author : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1135179778
Total Pages : 402 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (351 download)

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Book Synopsis Inflation Expectations by : Peter J. N. Sinclair

Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics

Author : George W. Evans
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400824265
Total Pages : 440 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics by : George W. Evans

Download or read book Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics written by George W. Evans and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2012-01-06 with total page 440 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A crucial challenge for economists is figuring out how people interpret the world and form expectations that will likely influence their economic activity. Inflation, asset prices, exchange rates, investment, and consumption are just some of the economic variables that are largely explained by expectations. Here George Evans and Seppo Honkapohja bring new explanatory power to a variety of expectation formation models by focusing on the learning factor. Whereas the rational expectations paradigm offers the prevailing method to determining expectations, it assumes very theoretical knowledge on the part of economic actors. Evans and Honkapohja contribute to a growing body of research positing that households and firms learn by making forecasts using observed data, updating their forecast rules over time in response to errors. This book is the first systematic development of the new statistical learning approach. Depending on the particular economic structure, the economy may converge to a standard rational-expectations or a "rational bubble" solution, or exhibit persistent learning dynamics. The learning approach also provides tools to assess the importance of new models with expectational indeterminacy, in which expectations are an independent cause of macroeconomic fluctuations. Moreover, learning dynamics provide a theory for the evolution of expectations and selection between alternative equilibria, with implications for business cycles, asset price volatility, and policy. This book provides an authoritative treatment of this emerging field, developing the analytical techniques in detail and using them to synthesize and extend existing research.

Experiments in Macroeconomics

Author : John Duffy
Publisher : Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1784411949
Total Pages : 320 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (844 download)

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Book Synopsis Experiments in Macroeconomics by : John Duffy

Download or read book Experiments in Macroeconomics written by John Duffy and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2014-11-14 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Volume 17 entitled 'Experiments in Macroeconomics', of the Research in Experimental Economics Book Series is the first-ever collection by leading researchers in the field of laboratory studies aimed at understanding macroeconomic phenomena.

Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Experimental Economics

Author : Arthur Schram
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1788110560
Total Pages : 437 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (881 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Experimental Economics by : Arthur Schram

Download or read book Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Experimental Economics written by Arthur Schram and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2019 with total page 437 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume offers a comprehensive review of experimental methods in economics. Its 21 chapters cover theoretical and practical issues such as incentives, theory and policy development, data analysis, recruitment, software and laboratory organization. The Handbook includes separate parts on procedures, field experiments and neuroeconomics, and provides the first methodological overview of replication studies and a novel set-valued equilibrium concept. As a whole, the combination of basic methods and current developments will aid both beginners and advanced experimental economists.

Behavioural Macroeconomics

Author : Paul De Grauwe
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 019883232X
Total Pages : 273 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (988 download)

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Book Synopsis Behavioural Macroeconomics by : Paul De Grauwe

Download or read book Behavioural Macroeconomics written by Paul De Grauwe and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modern macroeconomics has been based on the paradigm of the rational individual capable of understanding the complexity of the world. This has created a very shallow theory of the business cycle in which nothing happens in the macroeconomy unless shocks occur from outside. Behavioural Macroeconomics: Theory and Policy uses a different paradigm. It assumes that individual agents experience cognitive limitations preventing them from having rational expectations. Instead these individuals use simple rules of behaviour. Behavioural Macroeconomics introduces rationality by allowing individuals to learn from their mistakes and to switch to the rules that perform better. It introduces the idea of endogenously generated "animals spirits" that drive the business cycle and are in turn influenced by it, and applies this model to shed new light on a number of important issues. It analyses the role of fiscal policy in stabilizing the economy while maintaining debt sustainability; expands the model to include a banking sector and show how banks amplify the booms and busts; and explains how animal spirits help to synchronize the business cycles across countries. The model set out in Behavioural Macroeconomics leads to very different policy implications from the mainstream macroeconomic model. It shows how policymakers have a responsibility to stabilize an otherwise unstable system.

The Handbook of Experimental Economics, Volume 2

Author : John H. Kagel
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 0691139997
Total Pages : 770 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (911 download)

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Book Synopsis The Handbook of Experimental Economics, Volume 2 by : John H. Kagel

Download or read book The Handbook of Experimental Economics, Volume 2 written by John H. Kagel and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2016-10-04 with total page 770 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An indispensable survey of new developments and results in experimental economics When The Handbook of Experimental Economics first came out in 1995, the notion of economists conducting lab experiments to generate data was relatively new. Since then, the field has exploded. This second volume of the Handbook covers some of the most exciting new growth areas in experimental economics, presents the latest results and experimental methods, and identifies promising new directions for future research. Featuring contributions by leading practitioners, the Handbook describes experiments in macroeconomics, charitable giving, neuroeconomics, other-regarding preferences, market design, political economy, subject population effects, gender effects, auctions, and learning and the economics of small decisions. Contributors focus on key developments and report on experiments, highlighting the dialogue between experimenters and theorists. While most of the experiments consist of laboratory studies, the book also includes several chapters that report extensively on field experiments related to the subject area studied. Covers exciting new growth areas in experimental economics Features contributions by leading experts Describes experiments in macroeconomics, charitable giving, neuroeconomics, market design, political economy, gender effects, auctions, and more Highlights the dialogue by experimenters with theorists and each other Includes several chapters covering field experiments related to the subject area studied

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003

Author : Mark Gertler
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262572217
Total Pages : 436 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (722 download)

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Book Synopsis NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003 by : Mark Gertler

Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003 written by Mark Gertler and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2004 with total page 436 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The NBER Macroeconomics Annual presents pioneering work in macroeconomics by leading academic researchers to an audience of public policymakers and the academic community. Each commissioned paper is followed by comments and discussion. This year's edition provides a mix of cutting-edge research and policy analysis on such topics as productivity and information technology, the increase in wealth inequality, behavioral economics, and inflation.

Computational Economics: Heterogeneous Agent Modeling

Author : Cars Hommes
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0444641327
Total Pages : 836 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (446 download)

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Book Synopsis Computational Economics: Heterogeneous Agent Modeling by : Cars Hommes

Download or read book Computational Economics: Heterogeneous Agent Modeling written by Cars Hommes and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-06-27 with total page 836 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Computational Economics: Heterogeneous Agent Modeling, Volume Four, focuses on heterogeneous agent models, emphasizing recent advances in macroeconomics (including DSGE), finance, empirical validation and experiments, networks and related applications. Capturing the advances made since the publication of Volume Two (Tesfatsion & Judd, 2006), it provides high-level literature with sections devoted to Macroeconomics, Finance, Empirical Validation and Experiments, Networks, and other applications, including Innovation Diffusion in Heterogeneous Populations, Market Design and Electricity Markets, and a final section on Perspectives on Heterogeneity. - Helps readers fully understand the dynamic properties of realistically rendered economic systems - Emphasizes detailed specifications of structural conditions, institutional arrangements and behavioral dispositions - Provides broad assessments that can lead researchers to recognize new synergies and opportunities

Behavioral Rationality and Heterogeneous Expectations in Complex Economic Systems

Author : Cars Hommes
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 110701929X
Total Pages : 273 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Behavioral Rationality and Heterogeneous Expectations in Complex Economic Systems by : Cars Hommes

Causality and Objectivity in Macroeconomics

Author : Tobias Henschen
Publisher : Taylor & Francis
ISBN 13 : 1000961788
Total Pages : 219 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (9 download)

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Book Synopsis Causality and Objectivity in Macroeconomics by : Tobias Henschen

Download or read book Causality and Objectivity in Macroeconomics written by Tobias Henschen and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2023-09-29 with total page 219 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Central banks and other policymaking institutions use causal hypotheses to justify macroeconomic policy decisions to the public and public institutions. These hypotheses say that changes in one macroeconomic aggregate (e.g. aggregate demand) cause changes in other macroeconomic aggregates (e.g. in inflation). An important (perhaps the most important) goal of macroeconomists is to provide conclusive evidence in support of these hypotheses. If they cannot provide any conclusive evidence, then policymaking institutions will be unable to use causal hypotheses to justify policy decisions, and then the scientific objectivity of macroeconomic policy analysis will be questionable. The book analyzes the accounts of causality that have been or can be proposed to capture the type of causality that underlies macroeconomic policy analysis, the empirical methods of causal inference that contemporary macroeconomists have at their disposal, and the conceptions of scientific objectivity that traditionally play a role in economics. The book argues that contemporary macroeconomists cannot provide any conclusive evidence in support of causal hypotheses, and that macroeconomic policy analysis doesn’t qualify as scientifically objective in any of the traditional meanings. The book also considers a number of steps that might have to be taken in order for macroeconomic policy analysis to become more objective. The book addresses philosophers of science and economics as well as (macro-) economists, econometricians and statisticians who are interested in causality and macro-econometric methods of causal inference and their wider philosophical and social context.

The Behavioral Economics of John Maynard Keynes

Author : Ronald Schettkat
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN 13 : 180220489X
Total Pages : 185 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (22 download)

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Book Synopsis The Behavioral Economics of John Maynard Keynes by : Ronald Schettkat

Download or read book The Behavioral Economics of John Maynard Keynes written by Ronald Schettkat and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2022-12-08 with total page 185 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This insightful book discusses the behavioral microfoundations of Keynes’ macroeconomic revolution derived from ‘casual’ observations but impressively substantiated by rigorous research in Behavioral Economics and neurology. Ronald Schettkat argues that Keynes’ macroeconomic insights are based on microeconomic fundamentals of the behavior of humans and markets in the monetary economy we live in.

The Oxford Handbook of Philosophy of Economics

Author : Harold Kincaid
Publisher : Oxford Handbooks Online
ISBN 13 : 0195189256
Total Pages : 689 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (951 download)

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Book Synopsis The Oxford Handbook of Philosophy of Economics by : Harold Kincaid

Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Philosophy of Economics written by Harold Kincaid and published by Oxford Handbooks Online. This book was released on 2009-03-26 with total page 689 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume is the first comprehensive, cohesive, and accessible reference source to the philosophy of economics, presenting important new scholarship by top scholars.

Advances in Artificial Economics

Author : Frédéric Amblard
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319095781
Total Pages : 244 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (19 download)

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Book Synopsis Advances in Artificial Economics by : Frédéric Amblard

Download or read book Advances in Artificial Economics written by Frédéric Amblard and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-11-08 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book presents a peer-reviewed collection of papers presented during the 10th issue of the Artificial Economics conference, addressing a variety of issues related to macroeconomics, industrial organization, networks, management and finance, as well as purely methodological issues. The field of artificial economics covers a broad range of methodologies relying on computer simulations in order to model and study the complexity of economic and social phenomena. The grounding principle of artificial economics is the analysis of aggregate properties of simulated systems populated by interacting adaptive agents that are equipped with heterogeneous individual behavioral rules. These macroscopic properties are neither foreseen nor intended by the artificial agents but generated collectively by them. They are emerging characteristics of such artificially simulated systems.

Lectures on Behavioral Macroeconomics

Author : Paul De Grauwe
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 0691147396
Total Pages : 152 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (911 download)

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Book Synopsis Lectures on Behavioral Macroeconomics by : Paul De Grauwe

Download or read book Lectures on Behavioral Macroeconomics written by Paul De Grauwe and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2012-10-14 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 6.2 Introducing Asset Prices in the Behavioral Model -- 6.3 Simulating the Model -- 6.4 Should the Central Bank Care about Stock Prices? -- 6.5 Inflation Targeting and Macroeconomic Stability -- 6.6 The Trade-off between Output and Inflation Variability -- 6.7 Conclusion -- 7 Extensions of the Basic Model -- 7.1 Fundamentalists Are Biased -- 7.2 Shocks and Trade-offs -- 7.3 Further Extensions of the Basic Model -- 7.4 Conclusion -- 8 Empirical Issues -- 8.1 Introduction -- 8.2 The Correlation of Output Movements and Animal Spirits -- 8.3 Model Predictions: Higher Moments -- 8.4 Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks -- 8.5 Conclusion -- References -- Index

The Foundations of Expected Utility

Author : P.C. Fishburn
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9401733295
Total Pages : 181 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (17 download)

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Book Synopsis The Foundations of Expected Utility by : P.C. Fishburn

Download or read book The Foundations of Expected Utility written by P.C. Fishburn and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-14 with total page 181 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers a unified treatment of my research in the foundations of expected utility theory from around 1965 to 1980. While parts are new, the presentation draws heavily on published articles and a few chapters in my 1970 monograph on utility theory. The diverse notations and styles of the sources have of course been reconciled here, and their topics arranged in a logical sequence. The two parts of the book take their respective cues from the von Neumann-Morgenstern axiomatization of preferences between risky options and from Savage's foundational treatment of decision making under uncertainty. Both parts are studies in the axiomatics of preferences for decision situations and in numerical representations for preferences. Proofs of the representation and uniqueness theorems appear at the ends of the chapters so as not to impede the flow of the discussion. A few warnings on notation are in order. The numbers for theorems cited within a chapter have no prefix if they appear in that chapter, but otherwise carry a chapter prefix (Theorem 3.2 is Theorem 2 in Chapter 3). All lower case Greek letters refer to numbers in the closed interval from o to 1. The same symbol in different chapters has essentially the same meaning with one major exception: x, y, ... mean quite different things in different chapters. I am indebted to many people for their help and encouragement.

Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Policies

Author : Edouard Challe
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262549298
Total Pages : 361 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (625 download)

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Book Synopsis Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Policies by : Edouard Challe

Download or read book Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Policies written by Edouard Challe and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2023-09-19 with total page 361 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The basic tools for analyzing macroeconomic fluctuations and policies, applied to concrete issues and presented within an integrated New Keynesian framework. This textbook presents the basic tools for analyzing macroeconomic fluctuations and policies and applies them to contemporary issues. It employs a unified New Keynesian framework for understanding business cycles, major crises, and macroeconomic policies, introducing students to the approach most often used in academic macroeconomic analysis and by central banks and international institutions. The book addresses such topics as how recessions and crises spread; what instruments central banks and governments have to stimulate activity when private demand is weak; and what “unconventional” macroeconomic policies might work when conventional monetary policy loses its effectiveness (as has happened in many countries in the aftermath of the Great Recession.). The text introduces the foundations of modern business cycle theory through the notions of aggregate demand and aggregate supply, and then applies the theory to the study of regular business-cycle fluctuations in output, inflation, and employment. It considers conventional monetary and fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing the business cycle, and examines unconventional macroeconomic policies, including forward guidance and quantitative easing, in situations of “liquidity trap”—deep crises in which conventional policies are either ineffective or have very different effects than in normal time. This book is the first to use the New Keynesian framework at the advanced undergraduate level, connecting undergraduate learning not only with the more advanced tools taught at the graduate level but also with the large body of policy-oriented research in academic journals. End-of-chapter problems help students master the materials presented.