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Hydrological Drought Forecasting In Africa At Different Spatial And Temporal Scales
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Book Synopsis Hydrological Drought Forecasting in Africa at Different Spatial and Temporal Scales by : Patricia M. Trambauer Arechavaleta
Download or read book Hydrological Drought Forecasting in Africa at Different Spatial and Temporal Scales written by Patricia M. Trambauer Arechavaleta and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2015-08-07 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Africa has been severely affected by droughts in the past, contributing to food insecure conditions in several African countries. In view of the (even more) severe drought conditions and water shortage that may be expected in sub-Saharan Africa in the coming years, efforts should focus on improving drought management by ameliorating resilience and preparedness to drought. This study contributes to the development of a modelling framework for hydrological drought forecasting in sub-Saharan Africa as a step towards an effective early warning system. The proposed hydrological drought forecasting system makes use of a hydrological model that was found to be suitable for drought forecasting in Africa and could represent the most severe past droughts in the Limpopo Basin. The modelling results showed that there is an added value in computing indicators based on the hydrological model for the identification of droughts and their severity. The proposed seasonal forecasting system for the Limpopo Basin was found to be skilful in predicting hydrological droughts during the summer rainy season. The findings showed that the persistence of the initial hydrological conditions contribute to the predictability up to 2 to 4 months, while for longer lead times the predictability of the system is dominated by the meteorological forcing. An effective drought forecasting and warning system will hopefully contribute to important aspects in the region such as water security, food security, hazard management, and risk reduction.
Book Synopsis Hydrological Drought by : Lena M. Tallaksen
Download or read book Hydrological Drought written by Lena M. Tallaksen and published by Gulf Professional Publishing. This book was released on 2004 with total page 634 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The majority of the examples are taken from regions where the rivers run most of the year.
Book Synopsis Extreme Hydrology and Climate Variability by : Assefa M. Melesse
Download or read book Extreme Hydrology and Climate Variability written by Assefa M. Melesse and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2019-07-03 with total page 580 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Extreme Hydrology and Climate Variability: Monitoring, Modelling, Adaptation and Mitigation is a compilation of contributions by experts from around the world who discuss extreme hydrology topics, from monitoring, to modeling and management. With extreme climatic and hydrologic events becoming so frequent, this book is a critical source, adding knowledge to the science of extreme hydrology. Topics covered include hydrometeorology monitoring, climate variability and trends, hydrological variability and trends, landscape dynamics, droughts, flood processes, and extreme events management, adaptation and mitigation. Each of the book's chapters provide background and theoretical foundations followed by approaches used and results of the applied studies. This book will be highly used by water resource managers and extreme event researchers who are interested in understanding the processes and teleconnectivity of large-scale climate dynamics and extreme events, predictability, simulation and intervention measures. Presents datasets used and methods followed to support the findings included, allowing readers to follow these steps in their own research Provides variable methodological approaches, thus giving the reader multiple hydrological modeling information to use in their work Includes a variety of case studies, thus making the context of the book relatable to everyday working situations for those studying extreme hydrology Discusses extreme event management, including adaption and mitigation
Book Synopsis Towards Improving Drought Forecasts Across Different Spatial and Temporal Scales by :
Download or read book Towards Improving Drought Forecasts Across Different Spatial and Temporal Scales written by and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The post-processing technique is then expanded to exclusively study the drought forecasts across the different spatial and temporal scales. In the proposed drought forecasting model, the drought status in the future is evaluated based on the drought status of the past seasons while the correlations between the drought variables of consecutive seasons are preserved by copula functions. The main benefit of the new forecast model is its probabilistic features in analyzing future droughts. It develops conditional probability of drought status in the forecast season and generates the PDF and cumulative distribution function (CDF) of future droughts given the past status. The conditional PDF can return the highest probable drought in the future along with an assessment of the uncertainty around that value. Using the conditional CDF for forecast season, the model can generate the maps of drought status across the basin with particular chance of occurrence in the future. In a different analysis of the conditional CDF developed for the forecast season, the chance of a particular drought in the forecast period can be approximated given the drought status of earlier seasons. The forecast methodology developed in this study shows promising results in hydrologic forecasts and its particular probabilistic features are inspiring for future studies.
Book Synopsis Spatio-Temporal Drought Characterization and Forecasting Using Indices and Artificial Neural Networks. A Case of the Upper Tana River Basin, Kenya by : Raphael Muli Wambua
Download or read book Spatio-Temporal Drought Characterization and Forecasting Using Indices and Artificial Neural Networks. A Case of the Upper Tana River Basin, Kenya written by Raphael Muli Wambua and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2019-04-08 with total page 239 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Doctoral Thesis / Dissertation from the year 2016 in the subject Engineering - Civil Engineering, grade: 80.0, Egerton University, course: AGRICULTURAL ENGINEERING, language: English, abstract: Drought is a critical stochastic natural disaster that adversely affects water resources, ecosystems and people. Drought is a condition characterized by scarcity of precipitation and/or water quantity that negatively affects the global, regional and local land-scales. At both global and regional scales, drought frequency and severity have been increasing leading to direct and indirect decline in water resources. Increase in drought severity and frequency in the upper Tana River basin, Kenya, water resources systems have been adversely affected. Timely detection and forecasting of drought is crucial in planning and management of water resources. The main objective of this research was to formulate the most appropriate models for assessment and forecasting of drought using Indices and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for the basin. Hydro-meteorlogical data for the period 1970-2010 at sixteen hydrometric stations was used to test the performance of the indices in forecasting of the future drought at 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, 18 and 24-months lead times, by constructing ANN models with different time delays. Drought conditions at monthly temporal resolution were evaluated using selected drought indices. The occurrence of drought was investigated using non-parametric Man-kendall trend test. Spatial distribution of drought severity was determined using Kriging interpolation techinique. In addition, a standard Nonlinear-Integrated Drought Index (NDI), for drought forecasting in the basin was developed using hydro-meteoroogical data for the river basin. The results of spaial drought show that the south-eastern parts of the basin are more prone to drought risks than the north-western areas. The Mann-Kendall trend test indicates an increasing drought trend in the south-eastern and no trend in north-western areas of the basin. Development of Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI) function, NDI and characteristic curves defining the return period and the probability of different drought magnitudes based on Drought Indices (DIs) was achieved. Drought Severity-Duration-Frequency (SDF) curves were developed. The formulated NDI tool can be adopted for a synchronized assessment and forecasting of all the three operational drought types in the basin. The results can be used in assisting water resources managers for timely detection and forecasting of drought conditions in prioritized planning of drought preparedness and early warning systems.
Download or read book Drought written by Justin Sheffield and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2011 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: First Published in 2011. Routledge is an imprint of Taylor & Francis, an informa company.
Book Synopsis Spatio-temporal characterisation of drought: data analytics, modelling, tracking, impact and prediction by : Vitali Diaz Mercado
Download or read book Spatio-temporal characterisation of drought: data analytics, modelling, tracking, impact and prediction written by Vitali Diaz Mercado and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2022-02-10 with total page 161 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Studies of drought have increased in light of new data availability and advances in spatio-temporal analysis. However, the following gaps still need to be filled: 1) methods to characterise drought that explicitly consider its spatio-temporal features, such as spatial extent (area) and pathway; 2) methods to monitor and predict drought that include the above-mentioned characteristics and 3) approaches for visualising and analysing drought characteristics to facilitate interpretation of its variation. This research aims to explore, analyse and propose improvements to the spatio-temporal characterisation of drought. Outcomes provide new perspectives towards better prediction. The following objectives were proposed. 1) Improve the methodology for characterising drought based on the phenomenon’s spatial features. 2) Develop a visual approach to analysing drought variations. 3) Develop a methodology for spatial drought tracking. 4) Explore machine learning (ML) techniques to predict crop-yield responses to drought. The four objectives were addressed and results are presented. Finally, a scope was formulated for integrating ML and the spatio-temporal analysis of drought. Proposed scope opens a new area of potential for drought prediction (i.e. predicting spatial drought tracks and areas). It is expected that the drought tracking and prediction method will help populations cope with drought and its severe impacts.
Book Synopsis Remote Sensing of Drought by : Brian D. Wardlow
Download or read book Remote Sensing of Drought written by Brian D. Wardlow and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2012-04-24 with total page 487 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Remote Sensing of Drought: Innovative Monitoring Approaches presents emerging remote sensing-based tools and techniques that can be applied to operational drought monitoring and early warning around the world. The first book to focus on remote sensing and drought monitoring, it brings together a wealth of information that has been scattered throughout the literature and across many disciplines. Featuring contributions by leading scientists, it assembles a cross-section of globally applicable techniques that are currently operational or have potential to be operational in the near future. The book explores a range of applications for monitoring four critical components of the hydrological cycle related to drought: vegetation health, evapotranspiration, soil moisture and groundwater, and precipitation. These applications use remotely sensed optical, thermal, microwave, radar, and gravity data from instruments such as AMSR-E, GOES, GRACE, MERIS, MODIS, and Landsat and implement several advanced modeling and data assimilation techniques. Examples show how to integrate this information into routine drought products. The book also examines the role of satellite remote sensing within traditional drought monitoring, as well as current challenges and future prospects. Improving drought monitoring is becoming increasingly important in addressing a wide range of societal issues, from food security and water scarcity to human health, ecosystem services, and energy production. This unique book surveys innovative remote sensing approaches to provide you with new perspectives on large-area drought monitoring and early warning.
Book Synopsis The Effect of Land Surface Hydrological Process Representation on Drought Prediction, at a Range of Spatio-temporal Scales by : Azin Wright
Download or read book The Effect of Land Surface Hydrological Process Representation on Drought Prediction, at a Range of Spatio-temporal Scales written by Azin Wright and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Drought written by Justin Sheffield and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2012-11-12 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Drought is one of the likely consequences of climate change in many regions of the world. Together with an increased demand for water resources to supply the world's growing population, it represents a potentially disastrous threat to water supplies, agriculture and food production, leading to famine and environmental degradation. Yet predicting drought is fraught with difficulty. The aim of this book is to provide a review of the historical occurrence of global drought, particularly during the 20th century and assess the likely potential changes over the 21st century under climate change. This includes documentation of the occurrence and impacts of major 20th century drought events and analysis of the contributing climatic and environmental factors that act to force, prolong and dissipate drought. Contemporary drought is placed in the context of climate variability since the last ice age, including the many severe and lengthy drought events that contributed to the demise of great civilizations, the disappearance of lakes and rivers, and the conversion of forests to deserts. The authors discuss the developing field of drought monitoring and seasonal forecasting and describe how this is vital for identifying emerging droughts and for providing timely warning to help reduce the impacts. The book provides a broad overview of large scale drought, from historic events such as the US Dust Bowl and African Sahel, and places this in the context of climate variability and change. The work is soundly based on detailed research that has looked at drought occurrence over the 20th century, global drought monitoring, modelling and seasonal prediction, and future projections from climate models.
Book Synopsis Climate Change and Water Resources in Africa by : Salif Diop
Download or read book Climate Change and Water Resources in Africa written by Salif Diop and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-02-15 with total page 521 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The focus of this book is on the key water-related vulnerabilities to climate change in Africa, particularly in its most vulnerable areas, exploring potential management responses to such vulnerabilities. The African countries are particularly exposed and vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change, with important impacts on water resources and hydrological systems, water availability, water resource management and sea level variations. Already, under various anthropogenic pressures, the status of water resources in Africa has been changing over the past decades, with decreasing water quality, falling groundwater levels, and variability in rainfall, both in terms of timing and intensity. Climate change will further accelerate the rate of change, affecting the ability of people and societies to respond in a timely manner. It is clear that there is no quick fix to the pressures imposed on water resources by climate change. Increasing the resilience of ecosystems and communities to extreme events such as flooding and drought, and integrating climate change risks and opportunities into development decision-making is indeed a key challenge, as much a technical climate-change one, as a political and developmental challenge. The book, in this regard, intends to contribute to the debate around climate change in relation to water resources management in Africa, and in particular inform policy decisions and actions that will improve governments’ and communities’ ability to manage the challenges of climate change and variability in relation to the aquatic ecosystems that they depend on. The knowledge collected in this book will benefit policy makers, researchers, as well as other stakeholders.
Book Synopsis Meteorological Drought by : Wayne C. Palmer
Download or read book Meteorological Drought written by Wayne C. Palmer and published by . This book was released on 1965 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The underlying concept of the paper is that the amount of precipitation required for the near-normal operation of the established economy of an area during some stated period is dependent on the average climate of the area and on the prevailing meteorological conditions both during and preceding the month or period in question. A method for computing this required precipitation is demonstrated.
Book Synopsis On the Propagation of Drought by : A. F. van Loon
Download or read book On the Propagation of Drought written by A. F. van Loon and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Spatio-temporal characterisation of drought: data analytics, modelling, tracking, impact and prediction by : Vitali Diaz Mercado
Download or read book Spatio-temporal characterisation of drought: data analytics, modelling, tracking, impact and prediction written by Vitali Diaz Mercado and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2022-02-10 with total page 135 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Studies of drought have increased in light of new data availability and advances in spatio-temporal analysis. However, the following gaps still need to be filled: 1) methods to characterise drought that explicitly consider its spatio-temporal features, such as spatial extent (area) and pathway; 2) methods to monitor and predict drought that include the above-mentioned characteristics and 3) approaches for visualising and analysing drought characteristics to facilitate interpretation of its variation. This research aims to explore, analyse and propose improvements to the spatio-temporal characterisation of drought. Outcomes provide new perspectives towards better prediction. The following objectives were proposed. 1) Improve the methodology for characterising drought based on the phenomenon’s spatial features. 2) Develop a visual approach to analysing drought variations. 3) Develop a methodology for spatial drought tracking. 4) Explore machine learning (ML) techniques to predict crop-yield responses to drought. The four objectives were addressed and results are presented. Finally, a scope was formulated for integrating ML and the spatio-temporal analysis of drought. Proposed scope opens a new area of potential for drought prediction (i.e. predicting spatial drought tracks and areas). It is expected that the drought tracking and prediction method will help populations cope with drought and its severe impacts.
Book Synopsis Hydrological Drought by : Marjolein Hubertina Joanna van Huijgevoort
Download or read book Hydrological Drought written by Marjolein Hubertina Joanna van Huijgevoort and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Methods and Tools for Drought Analysis and Management by : Giuseppe Rossi
Download or read book Methods and Tools for Drought Analysis and Management written by Giuseppe Rossi and published by Springer. This book was released on 2009-09-03 with total page 421 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Frequent drought events have recently occurred in different Mediterranean regions. These have highlighted a general inadequacy of the current strategies applied to mitigate negative impacts of such phenomenon. This book provides various methods of drought monitoring at different spatial scales, as well as innovative drought forecasting techniques based on stochastic approaches. Besides common drought indices (i.e. SPI), new agrometeorological indices are proposed.
Book Synopsis Time Series Modelling of Water Resources and Environmental Systems by : K.W. Hipel
Download or read book Time Series Modelling of Water Resources and Environmental Systems written by K.W. Hipel and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 1994-04-07 with total page 1053 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a comprehensive presentation of the theory and practice of time series modelling of environmental systems. A variety of time series models are explained and illustrated, including ARMA (autoregressive-moving average), nonstationary, long memory, three families of seasonal, multiple input-single output, intervention and multivariate ARMA models. Other topics in environmetrics covered in this book include time series analysis in decision making, estimating missing observations, simulation, the Hurst phenomenon, forecasting experiments and causality. Professionals working in fields overlapping with environmetrics - such as water resources engineers, environmental scientists, hydrologists, geophysicists, geographers, earth scientists and planners - will find this book a valuable resource. Equally, environmetrics, systems scientists, economists, mechanical engineers, chemical engineers, and management scientists will find the time series methods presented in this book useful.
