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How Does Trade Evolve In The Aftermath Of Financial Crises
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Book Synopsis How Does Trade Evolve in the Aftermath of Financial Crises? by : Mr.Abdul Abiad
Download or read book How Does Trade Evolve in the Aftermath of Financial Crises? written by Mr.Abdul Abiad and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-01-01 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze trade dynamics following past episodes of financial crises. Using an augmented gravity model and 179 crisis episodes from 1970-2009, we find that there is a sharp decline in a country’s imports in the year following a crisis-19 percent, on average-and this decline is persistent, with imports recovering to their gravity-predicted levels only after 10 years. In contrast, exports of the crisis country are not adversely affected, and they remain close to the predicted level in both the short and medium-term.
Book Synopsis The Sectoral Trade Losses from Financial Crises by : Jean-Marc B. Atsebi
Download or read book The Sectoral Trade Losses from Financial Crises written by Jean-Marc B. Atsebi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-06-25 with total page 87 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The “Great Trade Collapse” triggered by the 2008-09 crisis calls for a careful assessment of the trade losses from financial crises. We adopt a more detailed perspective by looking at the response of different types of trade (i.e. agricultural, mining, and manufactured goods, and services) following various types of financial crises (i.e. debt, banking, and currency crises). Estimations performed on the 1980-2018 period using a combination of impact assessment and local projections to capture a causal dynamic effect running from financial crises to the trade activity show that the collapse of total trade is long-lasting and mainly driven by the fall of manufacturing and to some extent services trade. These causal effects are found to operate through three channels: a structural, a demand-side, and a supply-side channel. By contributing to the understanding of the trade effects of financial crises, our analysis provides insightful support for the design and implementation of policies aimed at coping with these effects.
Book Synopsis Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications by : Mr.Stijn Claessens
Download or read book Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications written by Mr.Stijn Claessens and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-30 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.
Book Synopsis How Do Banking Crises Affect Bilateral Exports? by : Mr.Youssouf Kiendrebeogo
Download or read book How Do Banking Crises Affect Bilateral Exports? written by Mr.Youssouf Kiendrebeogo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-06-19 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates whether banking crises are associated with declines in bilateral exports. We first develop a simple open economy model in which banking crises translate into negative liquidity shocks, leading to collapses in exports through supply-side and demand-side shocks. We then estimate a gravity model using a sample of developed and developing countries over the period 1988-2010. The results suggest that crisis-hit countries experience lower levels of bilateral exports, particularly in developing countries where supply-side shocks are found to be relatively more important than demand shocks. In developing countries, exports of manufactured goods are disproportionately hurt by banking crises and this negative effect is stronger in industries relying more on external finance. These findings are robust to correcting for potential endogeneity, to changes in the sample, and to alternative estimation methods.
Book Synopsis The Global Trade Slowdown by : Cristina Constantinescu
Download or read book The Global Trade Slowdown written by Cristina Constantinescu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-01-21 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years. The analysis uses an empirical strategy based on an error correction model to assess whether the global trade slowdown is structural or cyclical. An estimate of the relationship between trade and income in the past four decades reveals that the long-term trade elasticity rose sharply in the 1990s, but declined significantly in the 2000s even before the global financial crisis. These results suggest that trade is growing slowly not only because of slow growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but also because of a structural change in the trade-GDP relationship in recent years. The available evidence suggests that the explanation may lie in the slowing pace of international vertical specialization rather than increasing protection or the changing composition of trade and GDP.
Book Synopsis How Do Banking Crises Affect Bilateral Exports? by : Mr.Youssouf Kiendrebeogo
Download or read book How Do Banking Crises Affect Bilateral Exports? written by Mr.Youssouf Kiendrebeogo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-06-19 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates whether banking crises are associated with declines in bilateral exports. We first develop a simple open economy model in which banking crises translate into negative liquidity shocks, leading to collapses in exports through supply-side and demand-side shocks. We then estimate a gravity model using a sample of developed and developing countries over the period 1988-2010. The results suggest that crisis-hit countries experience lower levels of bilateral exports, particularly in developing countries where supply-side shocks are found to be relatively more important than demand shocks. In developing countries, exports of manufactured goods are disproportionately hurt by banking crises and this negative effect is stronger in industries relying more on external finance. These findings are robust to correcting for potential endogeneity, to changes in the sample, and to alternative estimation methods.
Book Synopsis Global Waves of Debt by : M. Ayhan Kose
Download or read book Global Waves of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Book Synopsis The Global Economic Recovery 10 Years After the 2008 Financial Crisis by : Ms.Wenjie Chen
Download or read book The Global Economic Recovery 10 Years After the 2008 Financial Crisis written by Ms.Wenjie Chen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-04-26 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper takes stock of the global economic recovery a decade after the 2008 financial crisis. Output losses after the crisis appear to be persistent, irrespective of whether a country suffered a banking crisis in 2007–08. Sluggish investment was a key channel through which these losses registered, accompanied by long-lasting capital and total factor productivity shortfalls relative to precrisis trends. Policy choices preceding the crisis and in its immediate aftermath influenced postcrisis variation in output. Underscoring the importance of macroprudential policies and effective supervision, countries with greater financial vulnerabilities in the precrisis years suffered larger output losses after the crisis. Countries with stronger precrisis fiscal positions and those with more flexible exchange rate regimes experienced smaller losses. Unprecedented and exceptional policy actions taken after the crisis helped mitigate countries’ postcrisis output losses.
Book Synopsis Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries by : Takatoshi Ito
Download or read book Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries written by Takatoshi Ito and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-12-01 with total page 466 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The exchange rate is a crucial variable linking a nation's domestic economy to the international market. Thus choice of an exchange rate regime is a central component in the economic policy of developing countries and a key factor affecting economic growth. Historically, most developing nations have employed strict exchange rate controls and heavy protection of domestic industry-policies now thought to be at odds with sustainable and desirable rates of economic growth. By contrast, many East Asian nations maintained exchange rate regimes designed to achieve an attractive climate for exports and an "outer-oriented" development strategy. The result has been rapid and consistent economic growth over the past few decades. Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries explores the impact of such diverse exchange control regimes in both historical and regional contexts, focusing particular attention on East Asia. This comprehensive, carefully researched volume will surely become a standard reference for scholars and policymakers.
Book Synopsis The Risk of Economic Crisis by : Martin Feldstein
Download or read book The Risk of Economic Crisis written by Martin Feldstein and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 1991-08-13 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based on a special National Bureau of Economic Research conference held in Oct. 1989. Includes bibliographical references and indexes.
Book Synopsis Trade Costs of Sovereign Debt Restructurings by : Mr.Tamon Asonuma
Download or read book Trade Costs of Sovereign Debt Restructurings written by Mr.Tamon Asonuma and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-11-15 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sovereign debt restructurings have been shown to influence the dynamics of imports and exports. This paper shows that the impact can vary substantially depending on whether the restructuring takes place preemptively without missing payments to creditors, or whether it takes place after a default has occurred. We document that countries with post-default restructurings experience on average: (i) a more severe and protracted decline in imports, (ii) a larger fall in exports, and (iii) a sharper and more prolonged decline in both GDP, investment and real exchange rate than preemptive cases. These stylized facts are confirmed by panel regressions and local projection estimates, and a range of robustness checks including for the endogeneity of the restructuring strategy. Our findings suggest that a country’s choice of how to go about restructuring its debt can have major implications for the costs it incurs from restructuring.
Book Synopsis A Decade after the Global Recession by : M. Ayhan Kose
Download or read book A Decade after the Global Recession written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-19 with total page 475 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This year marks the tenth anniversary of the 2009 global recession. Most emerging market and developing economies weathered the global recession relatively well, in part by using the sizable fiscal and monetary policy ammunition accumulated during prior years of strong growth. However, their growth prospects have weakened since then, and many now have less policy space. This study provides the first comprehensive stocktaking of the past decade from the perspective of emerging market and developing economies. Many of these economies have now become more vulnerable to economic shocks. The study discusses lessons from the global recession and policy options for these economies to strengthen growth and prepare for the possibility of another global downturn.
Book Synopsis The Regulatory Aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis by : Eilís Ferran
Download or read book The Regulatory Aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis written by Eilís Ferran and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2012-11-15 with total page 433 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The EU and the US responded to the global financial crisis by changing the rules for the functioning of financial services and markets and by establishing new oversight bodies. With the US Dodd–Frank Act and numerous EU regulations and directives now in place, this book provides a timely and thoughtful explanation of the key elements of the new regimes in both regions, of the political processes which shaped their content and of their practical impact. Insights from areas such as economics, political science and financial history elucidate the significance of the reforms. Australia's resilience during the financial crisis, which contrasted sharply with the severe problems that were experienced in the EU and the US, is also examined. The comparison between the performances of these major economies in a period of such extreme stress tells us much about the complex regulatory and economic ecosystems of which financial markets are a part.
Book Synopsis Financial Crises by : Mr.Stijn Claessens
Download or read book Financial Crises written by Mr.Stijn Claessens and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-02-19 with total page 754 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The lingering effects of the economic crisis are still visible—this shows a clear need to improve our understanding of financial crises. This book surveys a wide range of crises, including banking, balance of payments, and sovereign debt crises. It begins with an overview of the various types of crises and introduces a comprehensive database of crises. Broad lessons on crisis prevention and management, as well as the short-term economic effects of crises, recessions, and recoveries, are discussed.
Book Synopsis International Trade Negotiations and Domestic Politics by : Oluf Langhelle
Download or read book International Trade Negotiations and Domestic Politics written by Oluf Langhelle and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-08-29 with total page 269 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In spite of many years of negotiation on trade liberalization, progress seems to have stalled. This book explores why resistance to further market liberalization seems so strong, given that the benefits are seen to outweigh the costs. This volume argues that in order to understand the slow progress of World Trade Organization negotiations, we need to take into consideration the ‘intermestic’ character of trade politics, that is, the way in which international and domestic aspects of politics and policies have been woven together and become inextricably related to each other. This is a general trend in our globalizing world, and one that is most pronounced in the case of trade politics and policy. International Trade Negotiations and Domestic Politics therefore presents an in-depth analysis of institutions, ideas, interests and actors in the interplay between international trade negotiations and national negotiating positions. At the international level the authors focus on the multilateral negotiations within the World Trade Organization, together with the plurilateral and bilateral negotiations on free trade agreements. At the regional and domestic level they analyze the trade politics and policies of two established powers, the European Union and the USA; two rising powers, China and India; and a small industrialized country with an open economy, Norway.
Book Synopsis 61⁄2 Decades of Global Trade and Income by : Sanjay Kalra
Download or read book 61⁄2 Decades of Global Trade and Income written by Sanjay Kalra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-07-12 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global merchandise trade expanded rapidly over the last 61⁄2 decades and its relationship with global income has seen ebbs and flows. This paper examines the shifts in this relationship using time series data over 1950-2014 and situates it in the current and longer term context. The conjunctural context comes from, among other things, the “great trade collapse” (GTC) and the global financial crisis (GFC) in 2009, and developments since then. The longer term context comes from the relative role of “globalization” and “technology” shocks in accounting for the short and long run variance of global exports and income. The paper estimates trade and income elasticities using ADL models taking account of structural breaks, and impulse response functions from structural VARs. The estimated SVAR model provides a lens to ask whether global trade and income are in a “new normal’ or only “back to (an old) normal” after the GTC and GFC.
Book Synopsis Firms in the International Economy by : Sjoerd Beugelsdijk
Download or read book Firms in the International Economy written by Sjoerd Beugelsdijk and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2013-12-13 with total page 441 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Essays by leading scholars suggest that insights from international business could enrich firm heterogeneity research in international economics. Despite their common roots, international economics (IE) and international business (IB) have developed into two distinct fields of study. Economists have directed their efforts at formalizing the workings of international trade and investment at the macroeconomic level; business scholars have relied more on data-driven conceptual narratives than mathematical tools. But the recent focus of IE literature on firm heterogeneity suggests that IE would benefit from IB analyses of the behavior and organization of the internationalizing firm. The contributions to this volume investigate ways that insights from IB can enrich IE research in firm heterogeneity. The contributors discuss firm-specific advantages in international trade and investment, considering the firm as the unit of analysis and managerial inputs as a variable in market entry decisions; analyze interactions between a firm and its external environment, including local corporate philanthropy and institutional settings; examine the boundaries of the firm and organizational choices such as the make-or-buy decision; and investigate technology transfer and innovation offshoring, discussing the role of subsidiaries, inventor employment, and other related topics. Although IE and IB look at international firms from different perspectives, these contributions make it clear that there is a potential for a productive exchange of insights and information between the two disciplines. Contributors Laura Abramovsky, Carlo Altomonte, Sjoerd Beugelsdijk, Bruce Blonigen, Pamela Bombarda, Steven Brakman, Julia Darby, Rodolphe Desbordes, Filippo Di Mauro, María García-Vega, Harry Garretsen, Elena Huergo, Florian Mayneris, Quyen T. K. Nguyen, Verena Nowak, Cheyney O'Fallon, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Michael Pflüger, Filomena Pietrovito, Sandra Poncet, Alberto Franco Pozzolo, Alan M. Rugman, Armando Rungi, Stephan Russek, Davide Sala, Luca Salvatici, Christian Schwarz, Roger Smeets, Jens Suedekum, Hans van Ees, Vincent Vicard, Ian Wooton, Erdal Yalcin
