Household Deleveraging and Saving Rates: A Cross-Country Analysis

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1589064070
Total Pages : 49 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (89 download)

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Book Synopsis Household Deleveraging and Saving Rates: A Cross-Country Analysis by : Romain Bouis

Download or read book Household Deleveraging and Saving Rates: A Cross-Country Analysis written by Romain Bouis and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-10-29 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Historically high household debt in several economies is calling for a deleveraging, but according to some economists, this adjustment can slow GDP growth by weighing on consumption. Using a sample of advanced and emerging market economies, this paper finds evidence of a negative relationship between changes of household debt-to-income ratios and saving rates. This relationship is however asymmetric, being significant only for debt build-ups. Declining debt ratios and saving are significantly related in some economies, but the relationship is driven by consumer credit, not by mortgages. Results therefore suggest that the economic cost associated with household deleveraging may be overestimated and motivate a deleveraging via lower mortgages.

World Economic Outlook, April 2012

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475507038
Total Pages : 299 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, April 2012 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Download or read book World Economic Outlook, April 2012 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-04-17 with total page 299 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The April 2012 issue of the World Economic Outlook assesses the prospects for the global economy, which has gradually strengthened after a major setback during 2011. The threat of a sharp global slowdown eased with improved activity in the United States and better policies in the euro area. Weak recovery will likely resume in the major advanced economies, and activity will remain relatively solid in most emerging and developing economies. However, recent improvements are very fragile. Policymakers must calibrate policies to support growth in the near term and must implement fundamental changes to achieve healthy growth in the medium term. Chapter 3 examines how policies directed at real estate markets can accelerate the improvement of household balance sheets and thus support otherwise anemic consumption. Chapter 4 examines how swings in commodity prices affect commodity-exporting economies, many of which have experienced a decade of good growth. With commodity prices unlikely to continue growing at the recent elevated pace, however, these economies may have to adapt their fiscal and other policies to lower potential output growth in the future.

Housing Finance and Real-Estate Booms

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513552074
Total Pages : 35 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Housing Finance and Real-Estate Booms by : Mr.Eugenio Cerutti

Download or read book Housing Finance and Real-Estate Booms written by Mr.Eugenio Cerutti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-06-03 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent global crisis highlighted the risks stemming from real estate booms. This has generated a growing literature trying to better understand the sources and the risks associated with housing and credit booms. This paper complements and supplements the previous work by (i) exploiting more disaggregated data on credit allowing us to dissociate between firm-credit and household (and in some cases mortgage) credit, and (ii) by taking into account the characteristics of the mortgage market, including institutional as well as other factors that vary across countries. This detailed cross-country analysis offers new valuable insights.

Global Waves of Debt

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Author :
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 1464815453
Total Pages : 403 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (648 download)

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Book Synopsis Global Waves of Debt by : M. Ayhan Kose

Download or read book Global Waves of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.

Household Leverage and the Recession

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484374983
Total Pages : 51 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Household Leverage and the Recession by : Callum Jones

Download or read book Household Leverage and the Recession written by Callum Jones and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-08-30 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We evaluate and partially challenge the ‘household leverage’ view of the Great Recession. In the data, employment and consumption declined more in states where household debt declined more. We study a model where liquidity constraints amplify the response of consumption and employment to changes in debt. We estimate the model with Bayesian methods combining state and aggregate data. Changes in household credit limits explain 40 percent of the differential rise and fall of employment across states, but a small fraction of the aggregate employment decline in 2008-2010. Nevertheless, since household deleveraging was gradual, credit shocks greatly slowed the recovery.

International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis

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Author :
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319790757
Total Pages : 298 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (197 download)

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Book Synopsis International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis by : Laurent Ferrara

Download or read book International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis written by Laurent Ferrara and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-06-13 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.

The Great Cross-Border Bank Deleveraging

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498354785
Total Pages : 38 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)

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Book Synopsis The Great Cross-Border Bank Deleveraging by : Mr.Eugenio Cerutti

Download or read book The Great Cross-Border Bank Deleveraging written by Mr.Eugenio Cerutti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-09-25 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: International banks greatly reduced their direct cross-border and local affiliates’ lending as the global financial crisis strained balance sheets, lowered borrower demand, and changed government policies. Using bilateral, lender-borrower countrydata and controlling for credit demand, we show that reductions largely varied in line with markets’ prior assessments of banks’ vulnerabilities, with banks’ financial statement variables and lender-borrower country characteristics playing minor roles. We find evidence that moving resources within banking groups became more restricted as drivers of reductions in direct cross-border loans differ from those for local affiliates’ lending, especially for impaired banking systems. Home bias induced by government interventions, however, affected both equally.

The Impact of Public Policy on Consumer Credit

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1461514150
Total Pages : 340 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (615 download)

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Book Synopsis The Impact of Public Policy on Consumer Credit by : Thomas A. Durkin

Download or read book The Impact of Public Policy on Consumer Credit written by Thomas A. Durkin and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 340 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As both the twenty-first century and the new millennium opened and the old eras passed into history, individuals and organizations throughout the world advanced their listings of the most significant people and events in their respective specialties. Possibly more important, the tum of the clock and calendar also offered these same observers a good reason to glance into the crystal ball. Presumably, the past is of greatest interest to most people when it permits better understanding of the present, and maybe even limited insight into the outlook. In keeping with the reflective mood of the time, the staff and friends of the Credit Research Center (CRC) at Georgetown University's McDonough School of Business noted that the beginning of the new millennium also marked the beginning of the second quarter-century of the Center's existence. The Center began at the Krannert Graduate School of Management at Purdue University in 1974 and moved to the McDonough School of Business at Georgetown University in 1997. The silver anniversary of its founding offered the occasion for creating more than another listing of significant past accomplishments and milestones. Rather, it offered the opportunity and, indeed, a mandate for CRC as an academic research center, to undertake a retrospective and future look into the status of research questions pertaining to consumer credit markets. For this reason, the Center organized a research conference which was held in Washington, D. C.

Fundamental Drivers of House Prices in Advanced Economies

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484369122
Total Pages : 24 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Fundamental Drivers of House Prices in Advanced Economies by : Ms.Nan Geng

Download or read book Fundamental Drivers of House Prices in Advanced Economies written by Ms.Nan Geng and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-18 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: House prices in many advanced economies have risen substantially in recent decades. But experience indicates that housing prices can diverge from their long-run equilibrium or sustainable levels, potentially followed by adjustments that impact macroeconomic and financial stability. Therefore there is a need to monitor house prices and assess whether they are sustainable. This paper focuses on fundamentals expected to drive long run trends in house prices, including institutional and structural factors. The scale of potential valuation gaps is gauged on the basis of a cross-country panel analysis of house prices in 20 OECD countries.

Understanding Financial Accounts

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Publisher : OECD Publishing
ISBN 13 : 9264281282
Total Pages : 424 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (642 download)

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Book Synopsis Understanding Financial Accounts by : OECD

Download or read book Understanding Financial Accounts written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2017-11-06 with total page 424 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding Financial Accounts seeks to show how a range of questions on financial developments can be answered with the framework of financial accounts and balance sheets, by providing non-technical explanations illustrated with practical examples.

Excessive Private Sector Leverage and Its Drivers

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475589646
Total Pages : 30 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Excessive Private Sector Leverage and Its Drivers by : Mariusz Jarmuzek

Download or read book Excessive Private Sector Leverage and Its Drivers written by Mariusz Jarmuzek and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-03-28 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Nonfinancial private sector debt increased significantly in advanced economies prior to the global financial crisis and, with a few exceptions, deleveraging has been limited. Furthermore, in some countries households and corporations have continued to accumulate debt. Drawing on the literature, the paper aims to provide a quantitative assessment of the gaps between actual and sustainable levels of debt and to identify the key factors that drive excessive borrowing. Results suggest that variables that are typically found important in studies focusing on borrowing decisions, are also relevant for explaining the debt sustainability gaps.

Inequality, Leverage and Crises

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1455210757
Total Pages : 39 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (552 download)

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Book Synopsis Inequality, Leverage and Crises by : Mr.Michael Kumhof

Download or read book Inequality, Leverage and Crises written by Mr.Michael Kumhof and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-11-01 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper studies how high leverage and crises can arise as a result of changes in the income distribution. Empirically, the periods 1920-1929 and 1983-2008 both exhibited a large increase in the income share of the rich, a large increase in leverage for the remainder, and an eventual financial and real crisis. The paper presents a theoretical model where these features arise endogenously as a result of a shift in bargaining powers over incomes. A financial crisis can reduce leverage if it is very large and not accompanied by a real contraction. But restoration of the lower income group's bargaining power is more effective.

Australia

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1463921934
Total Pages : 41 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (639 download)

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Book Synopsis Australia by : International Monetary Fund

Download or read book Australia written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-10-06 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study relates Australian household saving more closely to movements in asset market using event study analysis and econometric analysis. In this study, the policy challenges for Australia from rebalancing in China, a temporary growth slowdown in China, and a recession in advanced countries are analyzed. The Globally Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF) is used for policy challenges. The impact of the mining boom on the Australian labor market is also discussed in this paper.

Private Sector Deleveraging and Growth Following Busts

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498307922
Total Pages : 37 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)

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Book Synopsis Private Sector Deleveraging and Growth Following Busts by : Ms.Sally Chen

Download or read book Private Sector Deleveraging and Growth Following Busts written by Ms.Sally Chen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-02-23 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Balance sheet recessions have been a drag on activity after the Global Financial Crisis, underscoring the important role of balance sheet adjustment for resuming sustained growth. In this paper we examine private sector deleveraging experiences across 36 advanced and emerging economies countries since 1960. We consider the common features and divergent experiences of deleveraging episodes across countries, and analyze empirically the impact of different aspects of deleveraging during the bust phase of leverage cycles on subsequent medium-term growth. The results suggest that larger and quicker unwinding of non-financial sector debt overhangs is associated with sizable medium-term output gains, and that policies should focus on facilitating up-front balance sheet adjustment.

The Liquidation of Government Debt

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498338380
Total Pages : 47 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)

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Book Synopsis The Liquidation of Government Debt by : Ms.Carmen Reinhart

Download or read book The Liquidation of Government Debt written by Ms.Carmen Reinhart and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-01-21 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: High public debt often produces the drama of default and restructuring. But debt is also reduced through financial repression, a tax on bondholders and savers via negative or belowmarket real interest rates. After WWII, capital controls and regulatory restrictions created a captive audience for government debt, limiting tax-base erosion. Financial repression is most successful in liquidating debt when accompanied by inflation. For the advanced economies, real interest rates were negative 1⁄2 of the time during 1945–1980. Average annual interest expense savings for a 12—country sample range from about 1 to 5 percent of GDP for the full 1945–1980 period. We suggest that, once again, financial repression may be part of the toolkit deployed to cope with the most recent surge in public debt in advanced economies.

Balance Sheet Analysis in Fund Surveillance

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498344453
Total Pages : 50 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)

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Book Synopsis Balance Sheet Analysis in Fund Surveillance by : International Monetary Fund

Download or read book Balance Sheet Analysis in Fund Surveillance written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-12-06 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Balance sheets convey vital information about economic prospects and risks. Balance sheet analysis captures the role that financial frictions and mismatches play in creating fragility and amplifying shocks. This is key to understanding the macroeconomic outlook, identifying vulnerabilities, and tracing the transmission of potential shocks and policies. This paper reviews the use of balance sheet analysis in the Fund’s bilateral surveillance and introduces some practical examples of how it can be deepened. Recent evaluations of IMF surveillance––including the 2014 TSR––have emphasized the importance of strengthening balance sheet analysis and coverage of macro-financial issues. This paper is a first step that highlights useful examples of such analysis conducted by staff over the last decade, documents the data and tools that have been used, and mentions some limitations. In addition, it discusses recent improvements in the coverage and quality of balance sheet data through initiatives launched in the wake of the global crisis, as well as key remaining gaps, addressing which requires international collaboration.

Ireland

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484305566
Total Pages : 64 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Ireland by : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Download or read book Ireland written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-06-26 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ireland: Selected Issues