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Growth Dynamics The Myth Of Economic Recovery
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Download or read book Growth Dynamics written by Valerie Cerra and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using panel data for a large number of countries, we find that economic contractions are not followed by offsetting fast recoveries. Trend output lost is not regained, on average. Wars, crises, and other negative shocks lead to absolute divergence and lower long-run growth, whereas we find absolute convergence in expansions. The output costs of political and financial crises are permanent on average, and long-term growth is negatively linked to volatility. These results also imply that panel data studies can help identify the sources of growth and that economic models should be capable of explaining growth and fluctuations within the same framework.
Book Synopsis Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery by : Valerie Cerra
Download or read book Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery written by Valerie Cerra and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2005-07-01 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using panel data for a large number of countries, we find that economic contractions are not followed by offsetting fast recoveries. Trend output lost is not regained, on average. Wars, crises, and other negative shocks lead to absolute divergence and lower long-run growth, whereas we find absolute convergence in expansions. The output costs of political and financial crises are permanent on average and long-term growth is negatively linked to volatility. These results also imply that panel data studies can help identify the sources of growth and that economic models should be capable of explaining growth and fluctuations within the same framework.
Book Synopsis Hysteresis and Business Cycles by : Ms.Valerie Cerra
Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :148437679X Total Pages :215 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (843 download)
Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, October 2018 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook, October 2018 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-10-09 with total page 215 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global growth for 2018–19 is projected to remain steady at its 2017 level, but its pace is less vigorous than projected in April and it has become less balanced. Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past six months and the potential for upside surprises has receded. Global growth is projected at 3.7 percent for 2018–19—0.2 percentage point lower for both years than forecast in April. The downward revision reflects surprises that suppressed activity in early 2018 in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade measures implemented or approved between April and mid-September, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, tighter financial conditions, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills. The balance of risks to the global growth forecast has shifted to the downside in a context of elevated policy uncertainty. Several of the downside risks highlighted in the April 2018 World Economic Outlook (WEO)—such as rising trade barriers and a reversal of capital flows to emerging market economies with weaker fundamentals and higher political risk—have become more pronounced or have partially materialized. Meanwhile, the potential for upside surprises has receded, given the tightening of financial conditions in some parts of the world, higher trade costs, slow implementation of reforms recommended in the past, and waning growth momentum.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1589069102 Total Pages :296 pages Book Rating :4.5/5 (89 download)
Book Synopsis IMF Staff Papers, Volume 56, No. 4 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book IMF Staff Papers, Volume 56, No. 4 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-11-04 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper empirically evaluates four types of costs that may result from an international sovereign default: reputational costs, international trade exclusion costs, costs to the domestic economy through the financial system, and political costs to the authorities. It finds that the economic costs are generally significant but short-lived, and sometimes do not operate through conventional channels. The political consequences of a debt crisis, by contrast, seem to be particularly dire for incumbent governments and finance ministers, broadly in line with what happens in currency crises.
Book Synopsis Booms, Crises, and Recoveries: A New Paradigm of the Business Cycle and its Policy Implications by : Ms.Valerie Cerra
Download or read book Booms, Crises, and Recoveries: A New Paradigm of the Business Cycle and its Policy Implications written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-11-16 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: All types of recessions, on average, not just those associated with financial and political crises (as in Cerra and Saxena, AER 2008), lead to permanent output losses. These findings have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. A new paradigm of the business cycle needs to account for shifts in trend output and the puzzling inconsistency of output dynamics with other cyclical components of production. The ‘output gap’ can be ill-conceived, poorly measured, and inconsistent over time. Persistent losses require more buffers and crisis-avoidance policies, affecting tradeoffs in prudential, macroeconomic, and reserve management policies. The frequency and depth of crises are key determinants of long-term growth and drive a new stylized model of economic development.
Book Synopsis Puzzles of Economic Growth by : Leszek Balcerowicz
Download or read book Puzzles of Economic Growth written by Leszek Balcerowicz and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2014-12-03 with total page 355 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: By comparing countries like Venezuela and Chile, China and India, Dominican Republic and Haiti, and others, the book tries to answer the questions of which institutions and policies are crucial for stable long term economic growth.
Book Synopsis The Economics of Creative Destruction by : Ufuk Akcigit
Download or read book The Economics of Creative Destruction written by Ufuk Akcigit and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 2023-08-22 with total page 785 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A stellar cast of economists examines the roles of creative destruction in addressing today’s most important political and social questions. Inequality is rising, growth is stagnant while rents accumulate, the environment is suffering, and the COVID-19 pandemic exposed every crack in the systems of global capitalism. How can we restart growth? Can our societies be made fairer? Editors Ufuk Akcigit and John Van Reenen assemble a world-leading group of social scientists and theorists to consider these questions and, in particular, how ideas about the economics of creative destruction may help solve the problems we face. Most closely associated with Joseph Schumpeter, formalized by Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt in the 1990s, the idea of innovation as creative destruction has become foundational in economics, reaching into almost every corner of the discipline—both theoretically and empirically. Now, at a time of rapid and disorienting change, is an opportune moment to pull the disparate strands of research together to assess what has been learned and continue an intellectual project that can aid economic decision-making in the decades to come. The cutting-edge work in The Economics of Creative Destruction focuses on innovation and growth. Contributors offer illuminating insights into monopoly and inequality, the nature of the social safety net, climate change, and the ups and downs of regulation. Collectively, they suggest that governance has a role to play in capitalism, maximizing its benefits and minimizing its risks.
Book Synopsis Falling Long-Term Growth Prospects by : M. Ayhan Kose
Download or read book Falling Long-Term Growth Prospects written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2024-03-06 with total page 703 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A structural growth slowdown is under way across the world: at current trends, the global rate of potential growth is expected to fall to a three-decade low over the remainder of the 2020s. Nearly all the forces that have powered growth and prosperity since the early 1990s have weakened. In addition, a series of shocks has affected the global economy over the past three years. A persistent and broad-based decline in long-term growth prospects imperils the ability of emerging market and developing economies to combat poverty, tackle climate change, and meet other key development objectives. The challenges presented by this potential inability call for an ambitious policy response at the national and global levels. This book presents the first detailed analysis of the growth slowdown and a rich menu of policy options to deliver better growth outcomes. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This book presents a sobering analysis of the secular growth slowdown based on the most comprehensive database of potential growth estimates available to date. With nearly all the forces that have driven growth and prosperity in recent decades now weakened, the book argues that a prolonged period of weakness is under way, with serious implications for emerging market and developing economies. The authors call for bold policy actions at both the national and global levels to lift growth prospects. The book is essential reading for policy makers, economists, and anyone concerned about the future of the global economy. Beatrice Weder di Mauro Professor of International Economics, Geneva Graduate Institute, and President of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) Economic policy making is becoming increasingly complicated in the 2020s. In addition to tackling traditional trade-offs in aggregate demand management and improving efficiency on the supply side, policy makers need to address new priorities and challenges, from addressing climate change and its impacts to improving income distribution, all in the context of lower growth rates, waning productivity growth, and flattening of the globalization process that has brought unprecedented prosperity across the globe and lifted more than a billion people out of poverty. In Falling Long-Term Growth Prospects, the authors do a phenomenal job of assessing these trends at the global and regional levels, identifying and unpacking salient twenty-first-century policy challenges, and providing thoughtful and evidence-based policy prescriptions for leaders in advanced, emerging market, and developing economies. Importantly, the book underscores that these challenges tend to be global and, hence, global cooperation at all levels is necessary to achieve optimal results. Alas, we seem to be going in the opposite direction; this book offers a road map to put us back on the path to creating a more integrated, prosperous, and equitable global community. Michael G. Plummer Director, SAIS Europe and ENI Professor of International Economics, The Johns Hopkins University
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1616353899 Total Pages :251 pages Book Rating :4.6/5 (163 download)
Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, October 2012 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook, October 2012 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-10-08 with total page 251 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The October 2012 World Economic Outlook (WEO) assesses the prospects for the global recovery in light of such risks as the ongoing euro area crisis and the "fiscal cliff" facing U.S. policymakers. Reducing the risks to the medium-term outlook implies reducing public debt in the major advanced economies, and Chapter 3 explores 100 years of history of dealing with public debt overhangs. In emerging market and developing economies, activity has been slowed by policy tightening in response to capacity constraints, weaker demand from advanced economies, and country-specific factors, but policy improvements have raised these economies' resilience to shocks, an issue explored in depth in Chapter 4.
Book Synopsis Globalization and the New Normal by : Ms.Alina Carare
Download or read book Globalization and the New Normal written by Ms.Alina Carare and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-04-06 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study expands the empirical specification of Cerra and Saxena (2008), and allows short-term output growth regimes to be determined by globalization. Relying on a non-linear dynamic panel representation, it reconciles the earlier results in the literature regarding the two opposite narratives of the effects of globalization on output growth. Countries experience higher growth, on average, the more open and integrated they are into the world. However, once they reach a certain globalization threshold (endogenously estimated), countries may also experience a new normal, persistently lower short-term output growth following a financial crisis. The benefits, as well as vulnerabilities, accrue earlier in the globalization process for low- and middle-income countries. To solely reap the globalization benefits on growth, sound policies should be in place to mitigate the negative effects stemming from increased vulnerabilities brought by globalization.
Book Synopsis Financial Mathematics, Volatility and Covariance Modelling by : Julien Chevallier
Download or read book Financial Mathematics, Volatility and Covariance Modelling written by Julien Chevallier and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-06-28 with total page 381 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides an up-to-date series of advanced chapters on applied financial econometric techniques pertaining the various fields of commodities finance, mathematics & stochastics, international macroeconomics and financial econometrics. Financial Mathematics, Volatility and Covariance Modelling: Volume 2 provides a key repository on the current state of knowledge, the latest debates and recent literature on financial mathematics, volatility and covariance modelling. The first section is devoted to mathematical finance, stochastic modelling and control optimization. Chapters explore the recent financial crisis, the increase of uncertainty and volatility, and propose an alternative approach to deal with these issues. The second section covers financial volatility and covariance modelling and explores proposals for dealing with recent developments in financial econometrics This book will be useful to students and researchers in applied econometrics; academics and students seeking convenient access to an unfamiliar area. It will also be of great interest established researchers seeking a single repository on the current state of knowledge, current debates and relevant literature.
Book Synopsis Mexico by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Mexico written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-03-16 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues paper analyzes the global crisis and potential growth in Mexico. The paper uses two methodologies to assess to what extent the global crisis is likely to weigh on Mexico’s growth potential. The first approach is sectoral, examining the historical relationship between financial stress and growth in manufacturing industries. The second approach uses a growth-accounting framework to take a closer look at likely developments in the factors that drive potential growth. The paper also examines spending patterns and risks of expenditures volatility from unanticipated shocks in macroeconomic variables under two alternative fiscal rules.
Book Synopsis Economic Aspects of Genocides, Other Mass Atrocities, and Their Prevention by : Charles H. Anderton
Download or read book Economic Aspects of Genocides, Other Mass Atrocities, and Their Prevention written by Charles H. Anderton and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2016 with total page 729 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This edited collection by 41 accomplished scholars examines economic aspects of genocides, other mass atrocities, and their prevention. Chapters include numerous case studies (e.g., California's Yana people, Australia's Aborigines peoples, Stalin's killing of Ukrainians, Belarus, the Holocaust, Rwanda, DR Congo, Indonesia, Pakistan, Colombia, Mexico's drug wars, and the targeting of suspects during the Vietnam war), probing literature reviews, and completely novel work based on extraordinary country-specific datasets. Also included are chapters on the demographic, gendered, and economic class nature of genocide.
Book Synopsis The UK Economy in the Long Expansion and its Aftermath by : Jagjit Chadha
Download or read book The UK Economy in the Long Expansion and its Aftermath written by Jagjit Chadha and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2016-07-28 with total page 465 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An analysis of the policy-making lessons that can be learned from the period of economic expansion that preceded the financial crisis.
Book Synopsis The Economics of Belonging by : Martin Sandbu
Download or read book The Economics of Belonging written by Martin Sandbu and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2022-05-17 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A radical new approach to economic policy that addresses the symptoms and causes of inequality in Western society today Fueled by populism and the frustrations of the disenfranchised, the past few years have witnessed the widespread rejection of the economic and political order that Western countries built up after 1945. Political debates have turned into violent clashes between those who want to “take their country back” and those viewed as defending an elitist, broken, and unpatriotic social contract. There seems to be an increasing polarization of values. The Economics of Belonging argues that we should step back and take a fresh look at the root causes of our current challenges. In this original, engaging book, Martin Sandbu argues that economics remains at the heart of our widening inequality and it is only by focusing on the right policies that we can address it. He proposes a detailed, radical plan for creating a just economy where everyone can belong. Sandbu demonstrates that the rising numbers of the left behind are not due to globalization gone too far. Rather, technological change and flawed but avoidable domestic policies have eroded the foundations of an economy in which everyone can participate—and would have done so even with a much less globalized economy. Sandbu contends that we have to double down on economic openness while pursuing dramatic reforms involving productivity, regional development, support for small- and medium-sized businesses, and increased worker representation. He discusses how a more active macroeconomic policy, education for all, universal basic income, and better taxation of capital could work together for society’s benefit. Offering real answers, not invective, for facing our most serious political issues, The Economics of Belonging shows how a better economic system can work for all.
Book Synopsis Global Economic Prospects, January 2020 by : World Bank Group
Download or read book Global Economic Prospects, January 2020 written by World Bank Group and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2020-01-27 with total page 561 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global growth is projected to be slightly faster in 2020 than the post-crisis low registered last year. While growth could be stronger if reduced trade tensions lead to a sustained reduction in uncertainty, the balance of risks to the outlook is to the downside. Growth in emerging market and developing economies is also expected to remain subdued, continuing a decade of disappointing outcomes. A steep and widespread productivity growth slowdown has been underway in these economies since the global financial crisis, despite the largest, fastest, and most broad-based accumulation of debt since the 1970s. In addition, many emerging market and developing economies, including low-income countries, face the challenge of phasing out price controls that impose heavy fiscal cost and dampen investment. These circumstances add urgency to the need to implement measures to rebuild macroeconomic policy space and to undertake reforms to rekindle productivity growth. These efforts need to be supplemented by policies to promote inclusive and sustainable long-term growth and accelerate poverty alleviation. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing countries, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). The January edition includes in-depth analyses of topical policy challenges faced by these economies, whereas the June edition contains shorter analytical pieces.
