Good Judgment In Foreign Policy

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Good Judgment in Foreign Policy

Author : Stanley Allen Renshon
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN 13 : 9780742510074
Total Pages : 362 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (1 download)

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Book Synopsis Good Judgment in Foreign Policy by : Stanley Allen Renshon

Download or read book Good Judgment in Foreign Policy written by Stanley Allen Renshon and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2003 with total page 362 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: At the heart of political leadership lies choice. And at the heart of choice lies judgment. A leader's psychology and experience intersect with political realities to produce consequences that can make or break a leader--or a country. Nowhere is judgment more important than in the making of foreign policy. Good judgments can avoid wars, or win them. Poor judgments can start wars or lose them. This book draws together a distinguished group of contributors--psychologists, political scientists, and policymakers--to focus on and understand both good and poor judgment in foreign policy making. Case studies of key leadership decisions combine with theoretical overviews and analyses to offer a highly textured portrait of judgment in action in the all-important foreign policy arena. An up-to-the-minute case on George W. Bush and the war on terrorism applies good judgment theory to contemporary events.

Presidential Judgment

Author : Aaron Lobel
Publisher : Hollis Publishing Company
ISBN 13 : 9781884186110
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (861 download)

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Book Synopsis Presidential Judgment by : Aaron Lobel

Download or read book Presidential Judgment written by Aaron Lobel and published by Hollis Publishing Company. This book was released on 2001 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Expert Political Judgment

Author : Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400888816
Total Pages : 368 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Expert Political Judgment by : Philip E. Tetlock

Download or read book Expert Political Judgment written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-08-29 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.

Foreign Policy Analysis

Author : M. Breuning
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 0230609244
Total Pages : 207 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (36 download)

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Book Synopsis Foreign Policy Analysis by : M. Breuning

Download or read book Foreign Policy Analysis written by M. Breuning and published by Springer. This book was released on 2007-11-26 with total page 207 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book's introduction to foreign policy analysis focuses on decision makers and decision making. Each chapter is organised around puzzles and questions to which undergraduates can relate. The book emphasizes the importance of individuals in foreign policy decision making, while also placing decision makers within their context.

War and Chance

Author : Jeffrey A. Friedman
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0190938048
Total Pages : 272 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (99 download)

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Book Synopsis War and Chance by : Jeffrey A. Friedman

Download or read book War and Chance written by Jeffrey A. Friedman and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2019-04-01 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty surrounds every major decision in international politics. Yet there is almost always room for reasonable people to disagree about what that uncertainty entails. No one can reliably predict the outbreak of armed conflict, forecast economic recessions, anticipate terrorist attacks, or estimate the countless other risks that shape foreign policy choices. Many scholars and practitioners therefore believe that it is better to keep foreign policy debates focused on the facts - that it is, at best, a waste of time to debate uncertain judgments that will often prove to be wrong. In War and Chance, Jeffrey A. Friedman shows how foreign policy officials often try to avoid the challenge of assessing uncertainty, and argues that this behavior undermines high-stakes decision making. Drawing on an innovative combination of historical and experimental evidence, he explains how foreign policy analysts can assess uncertainty in a manner that is theoretically coherent, empirically meaningful, politically defensible, practically useful, and sometimes logically necessary for making sound choices. Each of these claims contradicts widespread skepticism about the value of probabilistic reasoning in international politics, and shows how placing greater emphasis on assessing uncertainty can improve nearly any foreign policy debate. A clear-eyed examination of the logic, psychology, and politics of assessing uncertainty, War and Chance provides scholars and practitioners with new foundations for understanding one of the most controversial elements of foreign policy discourse.

Model Rules of Professional Conduct

Author : American Bar Association. House of Delegates
Publisher : American Bar Association
ISBN 13 : 9781590318737
Total Pages : 216 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (187 download)

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Book Synopsis Model Rules of Professional Conduct by : American Bar Association. House of Delegates

Download or read book Model Rules of Professional Conduct written by American Bar Association. House of Delegates and published by American Bar Association. This book was released on 2007 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Model Rules of Professional Conduct provides an up-to-date resource for information on legal ethics. Federal, state and local courts in all jurisdictions look to the Rules for guidance in solving lawyer malpractice cases, disciplinary actions, disqualification issues, sanctions questions and much more. In this volume, black-letter Rules of Professional Conduct are followed by numbered Comments that explain each Rule's purpose and provide suggestions for its practical application. The Rules will help you identify proper conduct in a variety of given situations, review those instances where discretionary action is possible, and define the nature of the relationship between you and your clients, colleagues and the courts.

Navigation by Judgment

Author : Dan Honig
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0190672471
Total Pages : 240 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (96 download)

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Book Synopsis Navigation by Judgment by : Dan Honig

Download or read book Navigation by Judgment written by Dan Honig and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2018-03-29 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Foreign aid organizations collectively spend hundreds of billions of dollars annually, with mixed results. Part of the problem in these endeavors lies in their execution. In Navigation by Judgment, Dan Honig argues that high-quality implementation of foreign aid programs often requires contextual information that cannot be seen by those in distant headquarters. Drawing on a novel database of over 14,000 discrete development projects across nine aid agencies and eight paired case studies of development projects, Honig shows that aid agencies will often benefit from giving field agents the authority to use their own judgments to guide aid delivery. This "navigation by judgment" is particularly valuable when environments are unpredictable and when accomplishing an aid program's goals is hard to accurately measure. Highlighting a crucial obstacle for effective global aid, Navigation by Judgment shows that the management of aid projects matters for aid effectiveness.

American Force

Author : Richard K. Betts
Publisher : Columbia University Press
ISBN 13 : 023152188X
Total Pages : 385 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (315 download)

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Book Synopsis American Force by : Richard K. Betts

Download or read book American Force written by Richard K. Betts and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2011-12-06 with total page 385 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While American national security policy has grown more interventionist since the Cold War, Washington has also hoped to shape the world on the cheap. Misled by the stunning success against Iraq in 1991, administrations of both parties have pursued ambitious aims with limited force, committing the country's military frequently yet often hesitantly, with inconsistent justification. These ventures have produced strategic confusion, unplanned entanglements, and indecisive results. This collection of essays by Richard K. Betts, a leading international politics scholar, investigates the use of American force since the end of the Cold War, suggesting guidelines for making it more selective and successful. Betts brings his extensive knowledge of twentieth century American diplomatic and military history to bear on the full range of theory and practice in national security, surveying the Cold War roots of recent initiatives and arguing that U.S. policy has always been more unilateral than liberal theorists claim. He exposes mistakes made by humanitarian interventions and peace operations; reviews the issues raised by terrorism and the use of modern nuclear, biological, and cyber weapons; evaluates the case for preventive war, which almost always proves wrong; weighs the lessons learned from campaigns in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Vietnam; assesses the rise of China and the resurgence of Russia; quells concerns about civil-military relations; exposes anomalies within recent defense budgets; and confronts the practical barriers to effective strategy. Betts ultimately argues for greater caution and restraint, while encouraging more decisive action when force is required, and he recommends a more dispassionate assessment of national security interests, even in the face of global instability and unfamiliar threats.

Risk-Taking in International Politics

Author : Rose McDermott
Publisher : University of Michigan Press
ISBN 13 : 9780472087877
Total Pages : 256 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (878 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk-Taking in International Politics by : Rose McDermott

Download or read book Risk-Taking in International Politics written by Rose McDermott and published by University of Michigan Press. This book was released on 2001 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discusses the way leaders deal with risk in making foreign policy decisions

Do Morals Matter?

Author : Joseph S. Nye
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN 13 : 0190935960
Total Pages : 273 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (99 download)

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Book Synopsis Do Morals Matter? by : Joseph S. Nye

Download or read book Do Morals Matter? written by Joseph S. Nye and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2020 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What is the role of ethics in American foreign policy? The Trump Administration has elevated this from a theoretical question to front-page news. Should ethics even play a role, or should we only focus on defending our material interests? In Do Morals Matter? Joseph S. Nye provides a concise yet penetrating analysis of how modern American presidents have-and have not-incorporated ethics into their foreign policy. Nye examines each presidency during theAmerican era post-1945 and scores them on the success they achieved in implementing an ethical foreign policy. Alongside this, he evaluates their leadership qualities, explaining which approaches work and which ones do not.

Understanding Foreign Policy Decision Making

Author : Alex Mintz
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139487221
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (394 download)

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Book Synopsis Understanding Foreign Policy Decision Making by : Alex Mintz

Download or read book Understanding Foreign Policy Decision Making written by Alex Mintz and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2010-02-22 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding Foreign Policy Decision Making presents a psychological approach to foreign policy decision making. This approach focuses on the decision process, dynamics, and outcome. The book includes a wealth of extended real-world case studies and examples that are woven into the text. The cases and examples, which are written in an accessible style, include decisions made by leaders of the United States, Israel, New Zealand, Cuba, Iceland, United Kingdom, and others. In addition to coverage of the rational model of decision making, levels of analysis of foreign policy decision making, and types of decisions, the book includes extensive material on alternatives to the rational choice model, the marketing and framing of decisions, cognitive biases, and domestic, cultural, and international influences on decision making in international affairs. Existing textbooks do not present such an approach to foreign policy decision making, international relations, American foreign policy, and comparative foreign policy.

The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy

Author : John J. Mearsheimer
Publisher : Farrar, Straus and Giroux
ISBN 13 : 9781429932820
Total Pages : 496 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (328 download)

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Book Synopsis The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy by : John J. Mearsheimer

Download or read book The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy written by John J. Mearsheimer and published by Farrar, Straus and Giroux. This book was released on 2007-09-04 with total page 496 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Israel Lobby," by John J. Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago and Stephen M. Walt of Harvard's John F. Kennedy School of Government, was one of the most controversial articles in recent memory. Originally published in the London Review of Books in March 2006, it provoked both howls of outrage and cheers of gratitude for challenging what had been a taboo issue in America: the impact of the Israel lobby on U.S. foreign policy. Now in a work of major importance, Mearsheimer and Walt deepen and expand their argument and confront recent developments in Lebanon and Iran. They describe the remarkable level of material and diplomatic support that the United States provides to Israel and argues that this support cannot be fully explained on either strategic or moral grounds. This exceptional relationship is due largely to the political influence of a loose coalition of individuals and organizations that actively work to shape U.S. foreign policy in a pro-Israel direction. Mearsheimer and Walt provocatively contend that the lobby has a far-reaching impact on America's posture throughout the Middle East—in Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, and toward the Israeli-Palestinian conflict—and the policies it has encouraged are in neither America's national interest nor Israel's long-term interest. The lobby's influence also affects America's relationship with important allies and increases dangers that all states face from global jihadist terror. Writing in The New York Review of Books, Michael Massing declared, "Not since Foreign Affairs magazine published Samuel Huntington's ‘The Clash of Civilizations?' in 1993 has an academic essay detonated with such force." The publication of The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy is certain to widen the debate and to be one of the most talked-about books in foreign policy.

U.S. Presidents and Foreign Policy Mistakes

Author : Stephen Walker
Publisher : Stanford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0804774994
Total Pages : 360 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (47 download)

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Book Synopsis U.S. Presidents and Foreign Policy Mistakes by : Stephen Walker

Download or read book U.S. Presidents and Foreign Policy Mistakes written by Stephen Walker and published by Stanford University Press. This book was released on 2011-08-15 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book, the authors offer a map for diagnosing foreign policy mistakes and a compass for steering clear of them.

Intelligence and U.S. Foreign Policy

Author : Paul R. Pillar
Publisher : Columbia University Press
ISBN 13 : 0231527802
Total Pages : 433 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (315 download)

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Book Synopsis Intelligence and U.S. Foreign Policy by : Paul R. Pillar

Download or read book Intelligence and U.S. Foreign Policy written by Paul R. Pillar and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2011-09-06 with total page 433 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A career of nearly three decades with the CIA and the National Intelligence Council showed Paul R. Pillar that intelligence reforms, especially measures enacted since 9/11, can be deeply misguided. They often miss the sources that underwrite failed policy and misperceive our ability to read outside influences. They also misconceive the intelligence-policy relationship and promote changes that weaken intelligence-gathering operations. In this book, Pillar confronts the intelligence myths Americans have come to rely on to explain national tragedies, including the belief that intelligence drives major national security decisions and can be fixed to avoid future failures. Pillar believes these assumptions waste critical resources and create harmful policies, diverting attention away from smarter reform, and they keep Americans from recognizing the limits of obtainable knowledge. Pillar revisits U.S. foreign policy during the Cold War and highlights the small role intelligence played in those decisions, and he demonstrates the negligible effect that America's most notorious intelligence failures had on U.S. policy and interests. He then reviews in detail the events of 9/11 and the 2003 invasion of Iraq, condemning the 9/11 commission and the George W. Bush administration for their portrayals of the role of intelligence. Pillar offers an original approach to better informing U.S. policy, which involves insulating intelligence management from politicization and reducing the politically appointed layer in the executive branch to combat slanted perceptions of foreign threats. Pillar concludes with principles for adapting foreign policy to inevitable uncertainties.

The Hell of Good Intentions

Author : Stephen M. Walt
Publisher : Macmillan + ORM
ISBN 13 : 0374712468
Total Pages : 238 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (747 download)

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Book Synopsis The Hell of Good Intentions by : Stephen M. Walt

Download or read book The Hell of Good Intentions written by Stephen M. Walt and published by Macmillan + ORM. This book was released on 2018-10-16 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the New York Times–bestselling author Stephen M. Walt, The Hell of Good Intentions dissects the faults and foibles of recent American foreign policy—explaining why it has been plagued by disasters like the “forever wars” in Iraq and Afghanistan and outlining what can be done to fix it. In 1992, the United States stood at the pinnacle of world power and Americans were confident that a new era of peace and prosperity was at hand. Twenty-five years later, those hopes have been dashed. Relations with Russia and China have soured, the European Union is wobbling, nationalism and populism are on the rise, and the United States is stuck in costly and pointless wars that have squandered trillions of dollars and undermined its influence around the world. The root of this dismal record, Walt argues, is the American foreign policy establishment’s stubborn commitment to a strategy of “liberal hegemony.” Since the end of the Cold War, Republicans and Democrats alike have tried to use U.S. power to spread democracy, open markets, and other liberal values into every nook and cranny of the planet. This strategy was doomed to fail, but its proponents in the foreign policy elite were never held accountable and kept repeating the same mistakes. Donald Trump won the presidency promising to end the misguided policies of the foreign policy “Blob” and to pursue a wiser approach. But his erratic and impulsive style of governing, combined with a deeply flawed understanding of world politics, are making a bad situation worse. The best alternative, Walt argues, is a return to the realist strategy of “offshore balancing,” which eschews regime change, nation-building, and other forms of global social engineering. The American people would surely welcome a more restrained foreign policy, one that allowed greater attention to problems here at home. This long-overdue shift will require abandoning the futile quest for liberal hegemony and building a foreign policy establishment with a more realistic view of American power. Clear-eyed, candid, and elegantly written, Stephen M. Walt’s The Hell of Good Intentions offers both a compelling diagnosis of America’s recent foreign policy follies and a proven formula for renewed success.

Identity, Culture, and Chinese Foreign Policy

Author : Kangkyu Lee
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1000261433
Total Pages : 182 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Identity, Culture, and Chinese Foreign Policy by : Kangkyu Lee

Download or read book Identity, Culture, and Chinese Foreign Policy written by Kangkyu Lee and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2020-11-29 with total page 182 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book assesses the role of identity and Chinese face culture in Chinese foreign policy by analyzing China’s political and economic retaliation against South Korea’s deployment of the THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) system on its soil. By examining the history and military action of China, Japan, and North and South Korea, the book argues that China’s divergent responses were caused by different expectations according to whether states had a perceived identity as a friend or a rival. The author demonstrates that Chinese face culture shapes China’s reaction to others through three dynamics of seeking, saving, and losing face. This book shows how identity and culture have worked in the relationship between China and neighboring countries through three case studies exploring North Korea’s Taepodong-2 missile launch and first nuclear test in 2006, South Korea’s decision to allow the United States to deploy the THAAD around 2016, and Japan’s decision to deploy two U.S. X-band radars in 2005 and 2014. A timely analysis of the importance of identity and culture in international relations, the book will be of interest to scholars of Chinese foreign policy, Sino-South Korean relations, Sino-North Korean relations, Sino-Japanese relations, Korean Politics, Asian Politics, and International Relations.

The Commander-in-Chief Test

Author : Jeffrey A. Friedman
Publisher : Cornell University Press
ISBN 13 : 1501772953
Total Pages : 158 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (17 download)

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Book Synopsis The Commander-in-Chief Test by : Jeffrey A. Friedman

Download or read book The Commander-in-Chief Test written by Jeffrey A. Friedman and published by Cornell University Press. This book was released on 2023-12-15 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In The Commander-in-Chief Test, Jeffrey A. Friedman offers a fresh explanation for why Americans are often frustrated by the cost and scope of US foreign policy—and how we can fix that for the future. Americans frequently criticize US foreign policy for being overly costly and excessively militaristic. With its rising defense budgets and open-ended "forever wars," US foreign policy often appears disconnected from public opinion, reflecting the views of elites and special interests rather than the attitudes of ordinary citizens. The Commander-in-Chief Test argues that this conventional wisdom underestimates the role public opinion plays in shaping foreign policy. Voters may prefer to elect leaders who share their policy views, but they prioritize selecting presidents who seem to have the right personal attributes to be an effective commander in chief. Leaders then use hawkish foreign policies as tools for showing that they are tough enough to defend America's interests on the international stage. This link between leaders' policy positions and their personal images steers US foreign policy in directions that are more hawkish than what voters actually want. Combining polling data with survey experiments and original archival research on cases from the Vietnam War through the occupations of Iraq and Afghanistan, Friedman demonstrates that public opinion plays a surprisingly extensive—and often problematic—role in shaping US international behavior. With the commander-in-chief test, a perennial point of debate in national elections, Friedman's insights offer important lessons on how the politics of image-making impacts foreign policy and how the public should choose its president.