Read Books Online and Download eBooks, EPub, PDF, Mobi, Kindle, Text Full Free.
Download Gauging The Uncertainty Of The Economic Outlook Using Historical Forecasting Errors full books in PDF, epub, and Kindle. Read online Gauging The Uncertainty Of The Economic Outlook Using Historical Forecasting Errors ebook anywhere anytime directly on your device. Fast Download speed and no annoying ads. We cannot guarantee that every ebooks is available!
Author : David Reifschneider
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (979 download)
Download or read book Gauging the Uncertainty of the Economic Outlook Using Historical Forecasting Errors written by David Reifschneider and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : David Reifschneider
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 78 pages
Book Rating : 4.E/5 ( download)
Download or read book Gauging the Uncertainty of the Economic Outlook from Historical Forecasting Errors written by David Reifschneider and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 78 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : David Reifschneider
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)
Download or read book Gaging the Uncertainty of the Economic Outlook from Historical Forecasting Errors written by David Reifschneider and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Participants in meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regularly produce individual projections of real activity and inflation that are published in summary form. These summaries indicate participants' views about the most likely course for the macro-economy but, by themselves, are not enough to gauge the full range of possible outcomes - that is, the uncertainty surrounding the outlook. To this end, FOMC participants will now provide qualitative assessments of how they view the degree of current uncertainty relative to that which prevailed on average in the past. This paper discusses a method for gaging the average magnitude of historical uncertainty using information on the predictive accuracy of a number of private and government forecasters. The results suggest that, if past performance is a reasonable guide to the accuracy of future forecasts, considerable uncertainty surrounds all macroeconomic projections, including those of FOMC participants.
Author : Sylwia Nowak
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475555520
Total Pages : 15 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)
Download or read book Forecast Errors and Uncertainty Shocks written by Sylwia Nowak and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-11-17 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Macroeconomic forecasts are persistently too optimistic. This paper finds that common factors related to general uncertainty about U.S. macrofinancial prospects and global demand drive this overoptimism. These common factors matter most for advanced economies and G- 20 countries. The results suggest that an increase in uncertainty-driven overoptimism has dampening effects on next-year real GDP growth rates. This implies that incorporating the common structure governing forecast errors across countries can help improve subsequent forecasts.
Author : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1135179778
Total Pages : 402 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (351 download)
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Author : Tobias Adrian
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484372360
Total Pages : 40 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)
Download or read book The Term Structure of Growth-at-Risk written by Tobias Adrian and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-08-02 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using panel quantile regressions for 11 advanced and 10 emerging market economies, we show that the conditional distribution of GDP growth depends on financial conditions, with growth-at-risk (GaR)—defined as growth at the lower 5th percentile—more responsive than the median or upper percentiles. In addition, the term structure of GaR features an intertemporal tradeoff: GaR is higher in the short run; but lower in the medium run when initial financial conditions are loose relative to typical levels, and the tradeoff is amplified by a credit boom. This shift in the growth distribution generally is not incorporated when solving dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with macrofinancial linkages, which suggests downside risks to GDP growth are systematically underestimated.
Author : Giles Keating
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 9780416357905
Total Pages : 238 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (579 download)
Download or read book The Production and Use of Economic Forecasts written by Giles Keating and published by Routledge. This book was released on 1985-01-01 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Michael P. Clements
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0199875510
Total Pages : 732 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (998 download)
Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Michael P. Clements and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2011-06-29 with total page 732 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Handbook provides up-to-date coverage of both new and well-established fields in the sphere of economic forecasting. The chapters are written by world experts in their respective fields, and provide authoritative yet accessible accounts of the key concepts, subject matter, and techniques in a number of diverse but related areas. It covers the ways in which the availability of ever more plentiful data and computational power have been used in forecasting, in terms of the frequency of observations, the number of variables, and the use of multiple data vintages. Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic analysis to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained; the volume provides explanations and critiques of these developments. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models, as well as models for handling data observed at mixed frequencies, high-frequency data, multiple data vintages, methods for forecasting when there are structural breaks, and how breaks might be forecast. Also covered are areas which are less commonly associated with economic forecasting, such as climate change, health economics, long-horizon growth forecasting, and political elections. Econometric forecasting has important contributions to make in these areas along with how their developments inform the mainstream.
Author : Maury Harris
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118865103
Total Pages : 403 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (188 download)
Download or read book Inside the Crystal Ball written by Maury Harris and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2014-12-12 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A practical guide to understanding economic forecasts In Inside the Crystal Ball: How to Make and Use Forecasts, UBS Chief U.S. Economist Maury Harris helps readers improve their own forecasting abilities by examining the elements and processes that characterize successful and failed forecasts. The book: Provides insights from Maury Harris, named among Bloomberg's 50 Most Influential People in Global Finance. Demonstrates "best practices" in the assembly and evaluation of forecasts. Harris walks readers through the real-life steps he and other successful forecasters take in preparing their projections. These valuable procedures can help forecast users evaluate forecasts and forecasters as inputs for making their own specific business and investment decisions. Emphasizes the critical role of judgment in improving projections derived from purely statistical methodologies. Harris explores the prerequisites for sound forecasting judgment—a good sense of history and an understanding of contemporary theoretical frameworks—in readable and illuminating detail. Addresses everyday forecasting issues, including the credibility of government statistics and analyses, fickle consumers, and volatile business spirits. Harris also offers procedural guidelines for special circumstances, such as natural disasters, terrorist threats, gyrating oil and stock prices, and international economic crises. Evaluates major contemporary forecasting issues—including the now commonplace hypothesis of sustained economic sluggishness, possible inflation outcomes in an environment of falling unemployment, and projecting interest rates when central banks implement unprecedented low interest rate and quantitative easing (QE) policies. Brings to life Harris's own experiences and those of other leading economists in his almost four-decade career as a professional economist and forecaster. Dr. Harris presents his personal recipes for long-term credibility and commercial success to anyone offering advice about the future.
Author : Holly Battelle
Publisher : DIANE Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1437936865
Total Pages : 50 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (379 download)
Download or read book CBO's Economic Forecasting Record written by Holly Battelle and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010-11 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) regularly evaluates the accuracy of its economic forecasts by comparing them with the economy¿s actual performance and with others¿ forecasts. Such evaluations help guide CBO¿s efforts to improve the quality of its forecasts and are also intended to assist Members of Congress in their use of the agency¿s estimates. Contents of this report: (1) Choice of Forecasts for the Evaluation; (2) Measuring the Quality of Forecasts: Statistical Bias; Accuracy; Alternative Measures of Forecast Quality; (3) Limitations of Forecast Evaluations: (4) The Effects of Bus. Cycles, Changes in the Trend Rate of Productivity Growth, and Oil Price Shocks; (5) Forecasting Record: 2-Year Forecasts; 5-Year Projections; (6) Historical and Forecast Data.
Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1589068068
Total Pages : 252 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (89 download)
Download or read book World Economic Outlook, April 2009 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-04-22 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This edition of the World Economic Outlook explores how a dramatic escalation of the financial crisis in September 2008 provoked an unprecedented contraction of activity and trade, despite active policy responses. It presents economic projections for 2009 and 2010, and also looks beyond the current crisis, considering factors that will shape the landscape of the global economy over the medium term, as businesses and households seek to repair the damage. The analysis also outlines the difficult policy challenges presented by the overwhelming imperative to take all steps necessary to restore financial stability and revive the global economy, and the longer-run need for national actions to be mutually supporting. The first of two analytical chapters, "What Kind of Economic Recovery?" explores the shape of the eventual recovery. The second, "The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging and Developing Economies," focuses on the role of external financial linkages and financial stress in transmitting economic shocks.
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 152 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (31 download)
Download or read book Projections 2000 written by and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : United States. Congress. House. Committee on Financial Services
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 144 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)
Download or read book Monetary policy and the state of the economy written by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Financial Services and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Michael P. Clements
Publisher : OUP USA
ISBN 13 : 0195398645
Total Pages : 732 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (953 download)
Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Michael P. Clements and published by OUP USA. This book was released on 2011-07-08 with total page 732 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic theory to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models.
Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484348834
Total Pages : 657 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)
Download or read book World Economic Outlook, October 2013 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-10-08 with total page 657 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global growth is in low gear, and the drivers of activity are changing. These dynamics raise new policy challenges. Advanced economies are growing again but must continue financial sector repair, pursue fiscal consolidation, and spur job growth. Emerging market economies face the dual challenges of slowing growth and tighter global financial conditions. This issue of the World Economic Outlook examines the potential spillovers from these transitions and the appropriate policy responses. Chapter 3 explores how output comovements are influenced by policy and financial shocks, growth surprises, and other linkages. Chapter 4 assesses why certain emerging market economies were able to avoid the classical boom-and-bust cycle in the face of volatile capital flows during the global financial crisis.
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 136 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)
Download or read book Monetary Policy and the State of the Economy, Part I, Serial No. 111-147, July 22, 2010, 111-2 Hearing, * written by and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 136 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Alexander Chudik
Publisher : Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1802620613
Total Pages : 360 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (26 download)
Download or read book Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran written by Alexander Chudik and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2022-01-18 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The collection of chapters in Volume 43 Part A of Advances in Econometrics serves as a tribute to one of the most innovative, influential, and productive econometricians of his generation, Professor M. Hashem Pesaran.
