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Foreign Exchange Intervention A Dataset Of Public Data And Proxies
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Book Synopsis Foreign Exchange Intervention: A Dataset of Public Data and Proxies by : Gustavo Adler
Download or read book Foreign Exchange Intervention: A Dataset of Public Data and Proxies written by Gustavo Adler and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-02-19 with total page 67 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Foreign exchange intervention (FXI) is a highly debated topic. Yet, comprehensive and comparable data on FXI is hard to find. This paper provides a new dataset of FXI covering a large number of countries over the period 2000-20 at monthly and quarterly frequencies. It includes publicly available data for about 40 countries and carefully constructed proxies for 122 countries. Proxies are focused on both spot and derivative transactions that alter the central bank’s foreign currency position and account for a wide range of central bank operations, including vis-à-vis residents, the first proxy to do so to our knowledge. The paper discusses the merits of the new proxy relative to coarser measures traditionally used like the change in reserves, and potential definitional differences with published data. The paper also presents stylized facts using our newly constructed FXI proxies.
Book Synopsis Patterns of Foreign Exchange Intervention under Inflation Targeting by : Gustavo Adler
Download or read book Patterns of Foreign Exchange Intervention under Inflation Targeting written by Gustavo Adler and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper documents the use of foreign exchange intervention (FXI) across countries and monetary regimes, with special attention to its use under inflation targeting (IT). We find significant differences between advanced and emerging market economies, with the former group conducting FXI limitedly and broadly symmetrically, while the use of this policy instrument in emerging market countries is pervasive and mostly asymmetric (biased towards purchasing foreign currency, even after taking into account precautionary motives). Within emerging markets, the use of FXI is common both under IT and non-IT regimes. We find no evidence of FXI being used in response to inflation developments, while there is strong evidence that FXI responds to exchange rates, indicating that IT central banks in EMDEs have dual inflation/exchange rate objectives. We also find a higher propensity to overshoot inflation targets in emerging market economies where FXI is more pervasive.
Book Synopsis SHOCKS AND CAPITAL FLOWS by : GASTON. SAHAY GELOS (RATNA.)
Download or read book SHOCKS AND CAPITAL FLOWS written by GASTON. SAHAY GELOS (RATNA.) and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023 with total page 2040 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Why Follow the Fed? Monetary Policy in Times of US Tightening by : Gonzalo Huertas
Download or read book Why Follow the Fed? Monetary Policy in Times of US Tightening written by Gonzalo Huertas and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-12-09 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I conduct interviews with 32 Central Bankers from Emerging Markets and present five unifying themes that explain their behavior when reacting to a U.S. monetary tightening. I then estimate the impulse response functions of their two main monetary tools, the policy rate and foreign exchange interventions, to an increase in the U.S. rate, using the answers from the interviews as a guide for the best econometric specification. I find that most Central Banks react to a U.S. tightening by raising domestic rates, regardless of the exchange rate regime, but their reasons for doing so vary – from controlling inflation to preventing capital outflows.
Book Synopsis Renminbi from Marketization to Internationalization by : Zhongxia Jin
Download or read book Renminbi from Marketization to Internationalization written by Zhongxia Jin and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2022-05-12 with total page 143 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study looks into the significance of a floating exchange rate regime, further development of the foreign exchange derivatives market, and concurrent internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) for a resilient, open, and growing Chinese economy. The first chapter analyzes the macroeconomic impact of foreign exchange intervention based on empirical studies on 26 economies, explaining why most countries favor a floating exchange rate regime under the existing international monetary system. The second chapter discusses the macroeconomic and microeconomic conditions that would facilitate a successful transition to a floating exchange rate. The final two chapters discuss the importance of further developing the foreign exchange derivatives market in China and explores paths toward further opening-up of the capital market and internationalization of the RMB under a floating exchange rate. Based on the authors’ decades of reflections and systematic analysis on real cases both in China and abroad, the title sheds lights on China’s exchange rate issues and research on exchange rate policy. This book will be an essential reference for scholars, students, professionals, and policymakers interested in exchange rate, currency internationalization, the financial market, especially the derivatives market, and the Chinese economy.
Book Synopsis Escaping the Financial Dollarization Trap: The Role of Foreign Exchange Intervention by : Paul Castillo
Download or read book Escaping the Financial Dollarization Trap: The Role of Foreign Exchange Intervention written by Paul Castillo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-06-21 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial dollarization is considered a source of macroeconomic instability in many emerging economies. Dollarization constrains the ability of central banks to stimulate output during economic downturns. In contrast to the conventional monetary transmission mechanism, a monetary policy loosening in a dollarized economy leads to a currency depreciation, adverse balance sheet effects, and a contraction in investment and output growth. In this paper we evaluate the role of foreign exchange reserves in facilitating macroeconomic stabilization in a financially dollarized economy. We first show empirically that foreign exchange intervention in response to capital outflows can largely reduce the volatility of output and the real exchange rate in dollarized economies. We then develop a small open economy model with foreign currency debt and balance sheets effects. Our quantitative model shows that an active foreign exchange intervention policy is sufficient for offsetting the output volatility associated with financial dollarization. These results can explain the prevalence of low macroeconomic volatility in some dollarized economies (Christiano et al., 2021) and they highlight the role of foreign exchange reserves in reducing the welfare costs of dollarization.
Book Synopsis External Shocks, Policies, and Tail-Shifts in Real Exchange Rates by : Mr. Nicolas E Magud
Download or read book External Shocks, Policies, and Tail-Shifts in Real Exchange Rates written by Mr. Nicolas E Magud and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-06-23 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We use panel quantile regressions to study extreme (rather than average) movements in the distribution of the real effective exchange rate (REER) of small open economies. We document that global uncertainty (VIX) and global financial conditions (U.S. monetary policy) shocks have a strong impact on the distribution of the REER changes, with larger impacts in the tails of the distribution, and especially in economies with shallower FX markets, lower central bank credibility, and higher credit risk (i.e., weaker macro fundamentals). Foreign exchange intervention (FXI) partially offsets the impact of these shocks, especially in the left tail (large depreciations) and particularly in economies with weaker fundamentals but, more importantly, when FXI is used sporadically. Thus, our results highlight the importance of deepening FX markets, improving central bank credibility, and strengthening macro fundamentals against the potential dynamic trade-offs of overreliance on a policy that would exacerbate the previously mentioned frictions. While our results point to low effectiveness of capital flow management in preventing large REER movements, they seem to enable more impactful foreign exchange intervention in the immediate aftermath of shocks.
Book Synopsis An Estimated DSGE Model for Integrated Policy Analysis by : Kaili Chen
Download or read book An Estimated DSGE Model for Integrated Policy Analysis written by Kaili Chen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-06-30 with total page 65 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We estimate a New Keynesian small open economy model which allows for foreign exchange (FX) market frictions and a potential role for FX interventions for a large set of emerging market economies (EMEs) and some inflation targeting (IT) advanced economy (AE) countries serving as a control group. Next, we use the estimated model to examine the empirical support for the view that interest rate policy may not be sufficient to stabilize output and inflation following capital outflow shocks, and the extent to which FX interventions (FXI) can improve policy tradeoffs. Our results reveal significant structural differences between AEs and EMEs—in particular FX market depth—leading to different transmission of capital outflow shocks which justifies occasional use of FXI in some EMEs in certain situations. Our analysis also highlights the critical importance of accounting for the endogeneity of FXI behavior when assessing FX market depth and policy tradeoffs associated with volatile capital flows in past episodes.
Book Synopsis OECD Economic Surveys: Switzerland 2024 by : OECD
Download or read book OECD Economic Surveys: Switzerland 2024 written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2024-03-14 with total page 131 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Switzerland has proved resilient through the pandemic, geopolitical turmoil and reverberations in energy markets. Unemployment and inflation are low, and living standards are among the highest in the OECD. This is reinforced by a dynamic market-based economy, highly skilled workforce and prudent macroeconomic policies. Yet, slowing growth amid continued price pressures pose challenges. A tight monetary policy is necessary to ensure that inflation remains durably within the central bank’s target range. Although a broadly neutral fiscal stance is warranted in the short term, longer-term fiscal pressures call for structural reform to counter rising cost of ageing and to support the green transition. S
Author :International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 : Total Pages :55 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (2 download)
Book Synopsis Philippines by : International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Download or read book Philippines written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-12-15 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Philippines: Selected Issues
Book Synopsis OECD Economic Surveys: Peru 2023 by : OECD
Download or read book OECD Economic Surveys: Peru 2023 written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2023-09-27 with total page 141 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Peru's solid macroeconomic framework has driven substantial economic growth and poverty reduction in the past two decades. While the economy swiftly rebounded from the pandemic due to strong policy support, it exposed structural weaknesses such as a large informal sector and stark regional disparities in accessing public services.
Book Synopsis Dollar Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth in Emerging Markets: Evidence from Firm Level Data by : Kodjovi M. Eklou
Download or read book Dollar Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth in Emerging Markets: Evidence from Firm Level Data written by Kodjovi M. Eklou and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-05-26 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the impact of Dollar exchange rate volatility on firm productivity in Emerging Markets economies (EMs). Using firm level data covering 16 EMs over the period 1998 -2019, the paper shows that dollar exchange rate volatility reduces firm productivity growth. Exploring channels, its finds that the results are driven by countries with low level of financial development, high dollar invoicing, high bilateral trade with the US, high collective bargaining coverage and open capital account. Exploring the role of policy, it finds that Foreign Exchange Interventions (FXI) dampen this impact on firm productivty. Further, exploiting firm level data, the paper shows that dollar exchange rate volatility operates also through the financial friction channel, reducing contemporaneous investments, especially at firms with low liquidity buffers and weak balance sheet (high leverage). The role of financial frictions is confirmed through the finding that younger firms, more likely to face financial constraints, are also found to be more vulnerable to dollar exchange rate volatility. In addition, we also find evidence of a large and persistent effect on firms with highly irreversible investment, lending support for the real option channel of uncertainty on the dollar exchange rate. These findings are robust to a battery of tests, including controlling for uncertainty, financial crises and using an instrumental variable strategy exploiting US monetary policy shocks as an exogenous source of variation in dollar exchange rate volatility.
Book Synopsis ECB Spillovers to Emerging Europe: The Past and Current Experience by : Philipp Engler
Download or read book ECB Spillovers to Emerging Europe: The Past and Current Experience written by Philipp Engler and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-08-09 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We provide new evidence on the spillover effects of ECB monetary policy shocks to emerging European economies, using a combination of empirical methods and model-based simulations and focusing on spillovers from interest rate and balance sheet policies implemented by the ECB. We consider an event study set around the ECB policy announcement in June 2022 and also use local projections to estimate regional spillovers in a panel of 16 Emerging European countries spanning 1999 to 2022. Identifying ECB monetary policy shocks as the unexplained component of changes in the three-month Euribor futures rate, we find that ECB monetary policy tightening induces more than one-for-one changes in government bond yields in Emerging Europe, as well as sizable increases in sovereign spreads, domestic currency depreciations, and significantly lower output. Model simulations using a two-country DSGE calibrated to the euro area and its Eastern European neighbors reveal that a conventional tightening, achieved through interest rate increases, provides a more favorable inflation-output trade-off compared to balance sheet tightenings. The extent of spillovers from quantitative tightening depends on the speed of balance sheet reduction, and it is larger under a fixed exchange rate regime.
Book Synopsis Navigating External Shocks in Southeast Asia's Emerging Markets by : Ms. Corinne C Delechat
Download or read book Navigating External Shocks in Southeast Asia's Emerging Markets written by Ms. Corinne C Delechat and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-09-23 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As relatively small open economies, South-East Asian emerging markets (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand or ASEAN-4) are highly susceptible to external shocks—both financial and real—that could induce large capital flows and exchange rate volatility that could lead to foreign exchange market dysfunction. With the exception of Bank Negara Malaysia, ASEAN-4 central banks mostly have flexible inflation-targeting frameworks for monetary policy implementation. Their main policy objectives include medium-term price stability, sustainable economic growth, and financial stability. Central Banks in ASEAN-4 economies have been early pilots in the operationalization of the IMF’s Integrated Policy Framework (IPF) in 2022-23, given their experience in using multiple policy tools besides the monetary policy rate, including macroprudential measures, foreign exchange intervention (FXI), and capital flow management measures, to achieve their multiple objectives. They have welcomed the IPF as a systematic, frictions-based approach to analyze the use of these multiple tools to manage trade-offs across policy objectives. This paper takes stock of the experience from these pilots, both from the perspective of country authorities and of IMF country teams. It aims at distilling key lessons, which could be used to inform broader IPF operationalization. The IPF conceptual framework and a related quantitative model were used to assess policy trade-offs in ASEAN-4 in the event of adverse external shocks. These applications reaffirmed the importance of using monetary policy to address persistent inflationary pressures stemming from real shocks and allowing the exchange rate to act as a shock absorber. However, a complementary use of FXI could improve trade-offs between price, financial, and output stability when economies are faced with large and financial shocks that result in abrupt spikes in uncovered interest rate parity premia resulting in inefficiently tight financial conditions that could hurt growth or risking to de-anchor inflation expectations. The IPF pilots also highlighted some challenges faced when operationalizing IPF principles, notably regarding the assessment of frictions and shocks that might justify the use of FXI. In particular, country teams at times lacked sufficient information to adequately assess the extent of frictions. Moreover, the time-varying nature of IPF frictions and the non-linear effects of shocks make it difficult to assess situations when benefits of a complementary use of FXI would overweigh its costs.
Book Synopsis The Anatomy of Monetary Policy Transmission in an Emerging Market by : Kodjovi M. Eklou
Download or read book The Anatomy of Monetary Policy Transmission in an Emerging Market written by Kodjovi M. Eklou and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-07-07 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Monetary policy transmission in EMs has been found to be weak historically due to under-developed financial markets and heavy central bank intervention in FX markets that undermine the exchange rate channel. Against this background, this paper investigates the transmission of monetary policy, including the role of external factors, in Malaysia and highlight findings that could be relevant for other EMs. We find an important role for the credit and the exchange rate channels. Further, we also find a complementary role for policy tools including Foreign Exchange Intervention (FXI) and liquidity tools such as Statutory Reserve Requirement in shaping the transmission of monetary policy. We then explore the spillover effects of external global factors including global monetary policy and global commodity prices on monetary policy transmission in a small open economy such as Malaysia. The results show that while global commodity prices do not impair monetary policy transmission, global monetary policy tightening could complement domestic efforts to achieve price stability by inducing a global disinflation. Finally, monetary policy transmission is delayed and weakened in high inflationary environment, with the implication that more aggressive and preemptive policy actions may be needed in such cases.
Book Synopsis Central and Eastern European Economies and the War in Ukraine by : László Mátyás
Download or read book Central and Eastern European Economies and the War in Ukraine written by László Mátyás and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2024 with total page 389 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Zusammenfassung: This book takes stock of and analyses the direct and indirect effects of the war in Ukraine, the policy response to the shock across countries, as well as the potential medium-term economic and social implications and policy challenges. The last decade most Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies have been on a convergence path towards the EU average according to the main economic indicators. In 2022, however, the terrible war in Ukraine had major spillovers to the rest of the world, with the CEE economies being among the most exposed. The millions of refugees, the disruptions to energy supply, trade and supply chains, the surge in inflation, the tightening of global financial conditions, and elevated uncertainty created a radically new economic and social environment in these countries. The volume covers the economic effects of these challenges, the policy options available, and also those related to the eventual reconstruction of Ukraine, including the potential role of the CEE countries. Based on data and evidence-supported policy analysis, each chapter studies the impact of the shock on a particular area of the economy and makes general and country-specific policy recommendations. This makes this book a must-read for students, scholars, and researchers of economics and neighboring disciplines, as well as policy-makers interested in a better understading of the direct and indirect effects of the war in Ukraine on the CEE countries. The book is a sequel to the volume Emerging European Economies after the Pandemic, (Springer Nature, January 2022). Chapter "Economic Growth & Resilience" is available open access under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License via link.springer.com.
Book Synopsis Macroprudential Policy Effects by : Nina Biljanovska
Download or read book Macroprudential Policy Effects written by Nina Biljanovska and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-03-31 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global financial crisis (GFC) underscored the need for additional policy tools to safeguard financial stability and ultimately macroeconomic stability. Systemic financial vulnerabilities had developed under a seemingly tranquil macroeconomic surface of low inflation and small output gaps. This challenged the precrisis view that achieving these traditional policy targets was a sufficient condition for macroeconomic stability. Thus, new tools had to be deployed to target specific financial vulnerabilities and to build buffers to cushion adverse aggregate shocks, while allowing traditional policy levers, including monetary and microprudential policies to focus on their traditional roles. Macroprudential policy measures emerged as the solution to this gap. Some of these measures had been used before the GFC (mostly in emerging markets). But it was only after the crisis that they were more widely adopted, and the toolkit expanded. This spurred a growing body of empirical research on the effects and potential shortfalls of these measures, with a further deepening of this knowledge gaining importance as policymakers confront increased financial stability risks in the post-pandemic world. Recognizing that there still is much to learn, this paper takes stock of our expanding understanding about the effects (and side effects) of macroprudential measures by focusing on these questions: What have we learned about the effects of macroprudential policy in containing the buildup of vulnerabilities? What do we know about the effects on economic activity and resilience? How do policy effects vary with conditions and over time? How important are leakages and circumvention? How do the effects on credit depend on other policies?
