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Author : Ramya Hewarathna
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781864461688
Total Pages : 21 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (616 download)
Download or read book Forecasting Inflation from the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Ramya Hewarathna and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Sylvester C. W. Eijffinger
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 48 pages
Book Rating : 4.X/5 (6 download)
Download or read book The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Inflation Forecast Targeting written by Sylvester C. W. Eijffinger and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Christopher Ragan
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)
Download or read book Deriving Agents Inflation Forecasts from the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Christopher Ragan and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, the author uses the term structure of nominal interest rates to construct estimates of agents' expectations of inflation over several medium-term forecast horizons. The Expectations Hypothesis is imposed together with the assumption that expected future real interest rates are given by current real rates. Under these maintained assumptions, it is possible to compare the nominal yields on two assets of different maturities and attribute the difference in nominal yields to differences in expected inflation over the two horizons (assuming a constant term premium). The results for the United States and Canada over the past several years suggest that there is a significant static element to agents' inflation expectations.
Author : Li-Hsueh Chen
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 248 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book Real Interest Rates, Inflation and the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Li-Hsueh Chen and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Christopher Ragan
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780662228899
Total Pages : 32 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (288 download)
Download or read book Deriving Agents' Inflation Forecasts from the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Christopher Ragan and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1135179778
Total Pages : 402 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (351 download)
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Author : S. Eijffinger
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 35 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (789 download)
Download or read book The Term Structure Od Interest Rates and Inflation Forecast Targeting written by S. Eijffinger and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Frank Browne
Publisher : [Paris, France] : OECD, Department of Economics and Statistics
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 40 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)
Download or read book The Information Content of the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Frank Browne and published by [Paris, France] : OECD, Department of Economics and Statistics. This book was released on 1989 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Maria Khait
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 52 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (88 download)
Download or read book Forecasting Future Economic Growth written by Maria Khait and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The broad literature documents the empirical regularity that slope of the term structure of interest rates is a reliable predictor of future real economic activity. Steeper slopes presage increasing growth, and downward sloping term structures presage declining growth or even recession. Some instances of slope's misleading signals were recorded in 2006 (the term structure was flat, indicating decline in economic activity when high growth continued) and 2008 (the term structure was very steep, predicting economic growth when recession continued and took a deep dive). Moreover, Breeden (2012a) showed that the term structure of interest rates has had less predictive power over the past fifty years than has been found in earlier researches over shorter periods of time. The key idea underlying this paper was to test whether the term structure of volatility and the term structure of inflation combined with the term spread could improve predictions of future economic growth compared to interest rate based forecasts with only one variable. This study finds that while the term structure spread and volatility appear to be statistically significant variables there is little evidence of improved performance compare to interest rate based forecasts with only one variable.
Author : Jeffrey A. Frankel
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 44 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)
Download or read book An Indicator of Future Inflation Extracted from the Steepness of the Interest Rate Yield Curve Along Its Entire Length written by Jeffrey A. Frankel and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is often suggested that the slope of the term structure of interest rates contains information about the expected future path of inflation. Mishkin (1990) has recently shown that the spread between the 12-month and 3-month interest rates helps to predict the difference between the 12-month and 3-month inflation rates. His approach however, lacks a theoretical foundation, other than the (rejected) hypothesis that the real interest rate is constant. This paper applies a simple existing theoretical framework, which allows the real interest rate to vary in the short run but converge to a constant in the long run, to the problem of predicting the inflation spread. It is shown that the appropriate indicator of expected inflation can make use of the entire length of the yield curve, in particular by estimating the steepness of a specific nonlinear transformation of the curve, rather than being restricted to a spread between two points. The resulting indicator, besides having a firmer theoretical foundation does a relatively good job of predicting the inflation rate over the period 1960 to 1988.
Author : Reuben A. Kessel
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 132 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (97 download)
Download or read book The Cyclical Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Reuben A. Kessel and published by . This book was released on 1965 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Eric Schaling
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 53 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)
Download or read book Heterogeneous Information About the Term Structure of Interest Rates, Least-Squares Learning and Optimal Interest Rate Rules for Inflation Targeting written by Eric Schaling and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we incorporate the term structure of interest rates in a standard inflation forecast targeting framework. Learning about the transmission process of monetary policy is introduced by having heterogeneous agents - i.e., the central bank and private agents - who have different information sets about the future sequence of short-term interest rates. We analyse inflation forecast targeting in two environments. One in which the central bank has perfect knowledge, in the sense that it understands and observes the process by which private sector interest rate expectations are generated, and one in which the central bank has imperfect knowledge and has to learn the private sector forecasting rule for short-term interest rates. In the case of imperfect knowledge, the central bank has to learn about private sector interest rate expectations, as the latter affect the impact of monetary policy through the expectations theory of the term structure of interest rates. Here, following Evans and Honkapohja (2001), the learning scheme we investigate is that of least-squares learning (recursive OLS) using the Kalman filter. We find that optimal monetary policy under learning is a policy that separates estimation and control. Therefore, this model suggests that the practical relevance of the breakdown of the separation principle and the need for experimentation in policy may be limited.
Author : Elias Tzavalis
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 27 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (535 download)
Download or read book Forecasting Inflation from the Term Structure written by Elias Tzavalis and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Frederic S. Mishkin
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 54 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 ( download)
Download or read book A Multi-country Study of the Information in the Term Structure about Future Inflation written by Frederic S. Mishkin and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides evidence on what the term structure (for maturities of twelve months or less) tells us about future inflation in ten OECD countries. The empirical results on the information in the term structure contrast with those that find that the level of interest rates help forecast the future level of inflation. Instead, they indicate that for the majority of the countries in the sample, the term structure does not contain a great deal of information about the future path of inflation. The results for France, the United Kingdom and Germany tell a different story, however. In these countries, the term structure contains a highly significant amount of information about future changes in inflation. The evidence in this paper suggests that central banks for most of the countries studied here should exercise some caution in using the term structure of interest rates as a guide for assessing inflationary pressures in the economy, as is currently under consideration in the U.S. central bank. Although there is significant information in the term structure about the future path of inflation for a few of the countries, this is not a result that is true in general. The empirical evidence does reveal, however, that for every country studied except the United Kingdom, there is a great deal of information in the term structure of nominal' interest rates about the term structure of real' interest rates. This finding is an extremely useful one because it suggests that for most countries researchers can examine observable data on the nominal term structure to provide them with information about the behavior of the real' term structure.
Author : Frederic S. Mishkin
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 360 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book Money, Interest Rates, and Inflation written by Frederic S. Mishkin and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 1993 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Frederick Mishkin's work has been dedicated to understanding the relationship between money, interest rates and inflation. The 15 essays in this collection - unabashedly empirical and rigorous - include much of Professor Mishkin's most highly regarded work. Money, Interst Rates and Inflation offers a coherent and informative assessment of how monetary policy affects the economy. In addition, the essays in this collection illustrate how rational expectations econometrics can be used to answer basic questions in the monetary-macroeconomics and finance areas.
Author : Eugene F. Fama
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 27 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (287 download)
Download or read book Term Structure Forecasts of Interest Rates, Inflation, and Real Returns written by Eugene F. Fama and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Mirko Abbritti
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475513313
Total Pages : 41 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)
Download or read book Global Factors in the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Mirko Abbritti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-11-05 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper introduces global factors within a FAVAR framework in an empirical affine term structure model. We apply our method to a panel of international yield curves and show that global factors account for more than 80 percent of term premia in advanced economies. In particular they tend to explain long-term dynamics in yield curves, as opposed to domestic factors which are instead more relevant to short-run movements. We uncover the key role for global curvature in shaping term premia dynamics. We show that this novel factor precedes global economic and financial instability. In particular, it coincides with immediate expectations of permanent expansionary monetary policy during the recent crisis.
