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Forecasting Financial Markets
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Book Synopsis Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets by : Stephen Satchell
Download or read book Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets written by Stephen Satchell and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2011-02-24 with total page 428 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets, Third Edition assumes that the reader has a firm grounding in the key principles and methods of understanding volatility measurement and builds on that knowledge to detail cutting-edge modelling and forecasting techniques. It provides a survey of ways to measure risk and define the different models of volatility and return. Editors John Knight and Stephen Satchell have brought together an impressive array of contributors who present research from their area of specialization related to volatility forecasting. Readers with an understanding of volatility measures and risk management strategies will benefit from this collection of up-to-date chapters on the latest techniques in forecasting volatility. Chapters new to this third edition:* What good is a volatility model? Engle and Patton* Applications for portfolio variety Dan diBartolomeo* A comparison of the properties of realized variance for the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 equity indices Rob Cornish* Volatility modeling and forecasting in finance Xiao and Aydemir* An investigation of the relative performance of GARCH models versus simple rules in forecasting volatility Thomas A. Silvey - Leading thinkers present newest research on volatility forecasting - International authors cover a broad array of subjects related to volatility forecasting - Assumes basic knowledge of volatility, financial mathematics, and modelling
Book Synopsis Forecasting Financial Markets by : Tony Plummer
Download or read book Forecasting Financial Markets written by Tony Plummer and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Takes the mystery out of financial markets by providing a straightforward analytical framework for trading. Offers a unifying rationale for technical analysis of markets, making it more of a ``science'' than ever before. Begins with a discussion of how emotional elements permeate economic and financial behaviors and how forecasters can remain independent from such behavior. The more reliable theories of natural systems and price pulse--continuously recurring price patterns--are introduced and examined in detail. The author shows analysts how to use these techniques to forecast price movement profile, extent, and timing of reversals, putting investors on the road to trading with minimum risk and maximum success.
Book Synopsis A Practical Guide to Forecasting Financial Market Volatility by : Ser-Huang Poon
Download or read book A Practical Guide to Forecasting Financial Market Volatility written by Ser-Huang Poon and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-08-19 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial market volatility forecasting is one of today's most important areas of expertise for professionals and academics in investment, option pricing, and financial market regulation. While many books address financial market modelling, no single book is devoted primarily to the exploration of volatility forecasting and the practical use of forecasting models. A Practical Guide to Forecasting Financial Market Volatility provides practical guidance on this vital topic through an in-depth examination of a range of popular forecasting models. Details are provided on proven techniques for building volatility models, with guide-lines for actually using them in forecasting applications.
Book Synopsis Financial Risk Forecasting by : Jon Danielsson
Download or read book Financial Risk Forecasting written by Jon Danielsson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-04-20 with total page 307 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Risk Forecasting is a complete introduction to practical quantitative risk management, with a focus on market risk. Derived from the authors teaching notes and years spent training practitioners in risk management techniques, it brings together the three key disciplines of finance, statistics and modeling (programming), to provide a thorough grounding in risk management techniques. Written by renowned risk expert Jon Danielsson, the book begins with an introduction to financial markets and market prices, volatility clusters, fat tails and nonlinear dependence. It then goes on to present volatility forecasting with both univatiate and multivatiate methods, discussing the various methods used by industry, with a special focus on the GARCH family of models. The evaluation of the quality of forecasts is discussed in detail. Next, the main concepts in risk and models to forecast risk are discussed, especially volatility, value-at-risk and expected shortfall. The focus is both on risk in basic assets such as stocks and foreign exchange, but also calculations of risk in bonds and options, with analytical methods such as delta-normal VaR and duration-normal VaR and Monte Carlo simulation. The book then moves on to the evaluation of risk models with methods like backtesting, followed by a discussion on stress testing. The book concludes by focussing on the forecasting of risk in very large and uncommon events with extreme value theory and considering the underlying assumptions behind almost every risk model in practical use – that risk is exogenous – and what happens when those assumptions are violated. Every method presented brings together theoretical discussion and derivation of key equations and a discussion of issues in practical implementation. Each method is implemented in both MATLAB and R, two of the most commonly used mathematical programming languages for risk forecasting with which the reader can implement the models illustrated in the book. The book includes four appendices. The first introduces basic concepts in statistics and financial time series referred to throughout the book. The second and third introduce R and MATLAB, providing a discussion of the basic implementation of the software packages. And the final looks at the concept of maximum likelihood, especially issues in implementation and testing. The book is accompanied by a website - www.financialriskforecasting.com – which features downloadable code as used in the book.
Book Synopsis Forecasting Financial Markets by : Tony Plummer
Download or read book Forecasting Financial Markets written by Tony Plummer and published by Kogan Page. This book was released on 2008 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Plummer provides an in-depth assessment of the phenomenon of cycles and patterns of economic and financial activity in order to make money in the world's financial markets.
Book Synopsis Forecasting Expected Returns in the Financial Markets by : Stephen Satchell
Download or read book Forecasting Expected Returns in the Financial Markets written by Stephen Satchell and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2011-04-08 with total page 299 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting returns is as important as forecasting volatility in multiple areas of finance. This topic, essential to practitioners, is also studied by academics. In this new book, Dr Stephen Satchell brings together a collection of leading thinkers and practitioners from around the world who address this complex problem using the latest quantitative techniques.*Forecasting expected returns is an essential aspect of finance and highly technical *The first collection of papers to present new and developing techniques *International authors present both academic and practitioner perspectives
Book Synopsis Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets by : William S. Mallios
Download or read book Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets written by William S. Mallios and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-03-29 with total page 207 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A guide to modeling analyses for financial and sports gambling markets, with a focus on major current events Addressing the highly competitive and risky environments of current-day financial and sports gambling markets, Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets details the dynamic process of constructing effective forecasting rules based on both graphical patterns and adaptive drift modeling (ADM) of cointegrated time series. The book uniquely identifies periods of inefficiency that these markets oscillate through and develops profitable forecasting models that capitalize on irrational behavior exhibited during these periods. Providing valuable insights based on the author's firsthand experience, this book utilizes simple, yet unique, candlestick charts to identify optimal time periods in financial markets and optimal games in sports gambling markets for which forecasting models are likely to provide profitable trading and wagering outcomes. Featuring detailed examples that utilize actual data, the book addresses various topics that promote financial and mathematical literacy, including: Higher order ARMA processes in financial markets The effects of gambling shocks in sports gambling markets Cointegrated time series with model drift Modeling volatility Throughout the book, interesting real-world applications are presented, and numerous graphical procedures illustrate favorable trading and betting opportunities, which are accompanied by mathematical developments in adaptive model forecasting and risk assessment. A related web site features updated reviews in sports and financial forecasting and various links on the topic. Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets is an excellent book for courses on financial economics and time series analysis at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. The book is also a valuable reference for researchers and practitioners working in the areas of retail markets, quant funds, hedge funds, and time series. Also, anyone with a general interest in learning about how to profit from the financial and sports gambling markets will find this book to be a valuable resource.
Book Synopsis Introduction to Financial Forecasting in Investment Analysis by : John B. Guerard, Jr.
Download or read book Introduction to Financial Forecasting in Investment Analysis written by John B. Guerard, Jr. and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-01-04 with total page 245 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting—the art and science of predicting future outcomes—has become a crucial skill in business and economic analysis. This volume introduces the reader to the tools, methods, and techniques of forecasting, specifically as they apply to financial and investing decisions. With an emphasis on "earnings per share" (eps), the author presents a data-oriented text on financial forecasting, understanding financial data, assessing firm financial strategies (such as share buybacks and R&D spending), creating efficient portfolios, and hedging stock portfolios with financial futures. The opening chapters explain how to understand economic fluctuations and how the stock market leads the general economic trend; introduce the concept of portfolio construction and how movements in the economy influence stock price movements; and introduce the reader to the forecasting process, including exponential smoothing and time series model estimations. Subsequent chapters examine the composite index of leading economic indicators (LEI); review financial statement analysis and mean-variance efficient portfolios; and assess the effectiveness of analysts’ earnings forecasts. Using data from such firms as Intel, General Electric, and Hitachi, Guerard demonstrates how forecasting tools can be applied to understand the business cycle, evaluate market risk, and demonstrate the impact of global stock selection modeling and portfolio construction.
Book Synopsis Stock Market Modeling and Forecasting by : Xiaolian Zheng
Download or read book Stock Market Modeling and Forecasting written by Xiaolian Zheng and published by Springer. This book was released on 2013-04-05 with total page 166 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stock Market Modeling and Forecasting translates experience in system adaptation gained in an engineering context to the modeling of financial markets with a view to improving the capture and understanding of market dynamics. The modeling process is considered as identifying a dynamic system in which a real stock market is treated as an unknown plant and the identification model proposed is tuned by feedback of the matching error. Like a physical system, a financial market exhibits fast and slow dynamics corresponding to external (such as company value and profitability) and internal forces (such as investor sentiment and commodity prices) respectively. The framework presented here, consisting of an internal model and an adaptive filter, is successful at considering both fast and slow market dynamics. A double selection method is efficacious in identifying input factors influential in market movements, revealing them to be both frequency- and market-dependent. The authors present work on both developed and developing markets in the shape of the US, Hong Kong, Chinese and Singaporean stock markets. Results from all these sources demonstrate the efficiency of the model framework in identifying significant influences and the quality of its predictive ability; promising results are also obtained by applying the model framework to the forecasting of major market-turning periods. Having shown that system-theoretic ideas can form the core of a novel and effective basis for stock market analysis, the book is completed by an indication of possible and likely future expansions of the research in this area.
Book Synopsis Artificial Intelligence in Financial Markets by : Christian L. Dunis
Download or read book Artificial Intelligence in Financial Markets written by Christian L. Dunis and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-11-21 with total page 349 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As technology advancement has increased, so to have computational applications for forecasting, modelling and trading financial markets and information, and practitioners are finding ever more complex solutions to financial challenges. Neural networking is a highly effective, trainable algorithmic approach which emulates certain aspects of human brain functions, and is used extensively in financial forecasting allowing for quick investment decision making. This book presents the most cutting-edge artificial intelligence (AI)/neural networking applications for markets, assets and other areas of finance. Split into four sections, the book first explores time series analysis for forecasting and trading across a range of assets, including derivatives, exchange traded funds, debt and equity instruments. This section will focus on pattern recognition, market timing models, forecasting and trading of financial time series. Section II provides insights into macro and microeconomics and how AI techniques could be used to better understand and predict economic variables. Section III focuses on corporate finance and credit analysis providing an insight into corporate structures and credit, and establishing a relationship between financial statement analysis and the influence of various financial scenarios. Section IV focuses on portfolio management, exploring applications for portfolio theory, asset allocation and optimization. This book also provides some of the latest research in the field of artificial intelligence and finance, and provides in-depth analysis and highly applicable tools and techniques for practitioners and researchers in this field.
Book Synopsis McWhirter Theory of Stock Market Forecasting by : Louise McWhirter
Download or read book McWhirter Theory of Stock Market Forecasting written by Louise McWhirter and published by American Federation of Astr. This book was released on 2008-11 with total page 210 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Included in this volume are Louise McWhirter's theories and numerous, fully-explained and detailed examples for: Forecasting business cycles and stock market trends, forecasting trends of individual stocks, and forecasting monthly and daily trends on the New York stock exchange.
Book Synopsis Trend Forecasting with Intermarket Analysis by : Louis B. Mendelsohn
Download or read book Trend Forecasting with Intermarket Analysis written by Louis B. Mendelsohn and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-10-15 with total page 171 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this groundbreaking new edition, Mendelsohn gives you the weapon to conquer the limitations of traditional technical trading-intermarket analysis. To compete in today's rapidly changing economy, you need a method that can identify reoccurring patterns within individual financial markets and between related global markets. You need tools that lead, not lag. Step by step, Mendelsohn shows how combining technical, fundamental, and intermarket analysis into one powerful framework can give you an early edge to accurately forecasting trends. Inside, you'll discover: Precise trading strategies that can be used by both day traders and position traders. The limitations of traditional technical analysis methods-and how to overcome them. How neural network computational modeling can create leading, not lagging, moving averages for more accurate forecasting. Innovative, quantitative trend forecasting indicators at the cutting edge of market analysis. PLUS-an introduction to VantagePoint Software, which makes Mendelsohn's "new economy" trading methods work simply-and effectively. This software applies the pattern recognition capabilities of advanced neural networks to analyze intermarket data on literally hundreds of global financial markets each day.
Book Synopsis A Trader's Guide to Financial Astrology by : Larry Pasavento
Download or read book A Trader's Guide to Financial Astrology written by Larry Pasavento and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-01-06 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Look to the stars for a whole new approach to market cycle forecasting A Trader's Guide to Financial Astrology is the definitive guide to trading market cycles based on astrological data. Written by a highly-respected technical analyst, this book makes the connection between the movements of planets and the volatility of the market. Readers can draw upon one hundred years of historical data as they learn how to spot correlations from the past, and refer to planetary and lunar data for the next five years as they shape their own strategy. The book covers the principles of astrological forecasting as applied to the financial markets, explaining what to watch for and how to interpret planetary and lunar activity, plus expert insight on everyday practical application. A study by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta determined that the U.S. stock markets tend to be negatively affected by geomagnetic storms, and the Royal Bank of Scotland demonstrated that a trading system based on the phases of the moon would have outperformed the market. A Trader's Guide to Financial Astrology shows traders how to tap into the planetary forces that influence market activity. Readers will: Learn how planetary and lunar movements relate to the financial markets Draw upon 100 years of historic correlations and five years of forecast data Forecast long-term and short-term activity based on planetary relationships and lunar movement Enter the markets at key turning points, using price patterns and other tools When integrated with technical trading patterns, astrology can be an effective way of shifting perspective and approaching the market differently. For traders who have always wanted to know what to do when Mercury is in retrograde or the moon is new, A Trader's Guide to Financial Astrology provides information and insight from a leading market educator.
Book Synopsis Cash Flow Forecasting by : Andrew Fight
Download or read book Cash Flow Forecasting written by Andrew Fight and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2005-10-12 with total page 263 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Budgets are like road maps -- they provide a direction for a corporates financial management. Balance sheets and statements of revenues also provide insights into how well a company is following that direction. But cash flow and cash flow forecasts are what guide the day-to-day itinerary for an organization. Budgets and cash flow are dynamic -- adjustments and changes can and should occur. If you understand what you are looking at, you can use cash flow to create better budgets and thus more accurate cash flow forecasting.Cash Flow Forecasting outlines the techniques required to undertake a detailed analysis of the cash flow dynamics of the business from both a historical and forward looking perspective. Cash Flow Forecasting explains how to: * Determine appropriate cash flow figures from pro forma financial statements * Interpret detailed cash flow forecasts and understand the difference between profit and cash flow * Conserve or generate cash in the short term * Evaluate different methods of project evaluation * Recognize the limitations of accounting information in valuing companies*Inspired by basic entry level training courses that have been developed by major international banks worldwide* Will enable students and those already in the finance profession to gain an understanding of the basic information and principles of cash flow forecasting* Includes questions with answers, study topics, practical "real world" examples and extensive bibliography
Book Synopsis Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits by : R. Schabacker
Download or read book Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits written by R. Schabacker and published by Harriman House Limited. This book was released on 2021-02-15 with total page 472 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Richard W. Schabacker's great work, Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits, is a worthy addition to any technical analyst's personal library or any market library. His "pioneering research" represents one of the finest works ever produced on technical analysis, and this book remains an example of the highest order of analytical quality and incisive trading wisdom. Originally devised as a practical course for investors, it is as alive, vital and instructional today as the day it was written. It paved the way for Robert Edwards and John Magee's best-selling Technical Analysis of Stock Trends - a debt which is acknowledged in their foreword: 'Part One is based in large part on the pioneer researches and writings of the late Richard Schabacker.'Schabacker presents technical analysis as a totally organized subject and comprehensively lays out the various important patterns, formations, trends, support and resistance areas, and associated supporting technical detail. He presents factors that can be confidently relied on, and gives equal attention to the blemishes and weaknesses that can upset the best of analytical forecasts: Factors which investors would do well to absorb and apply when undertaking the fascinating game of price, time and volume analysis.
Book Synopsis Neural Network Time Series by : E. Michael Azoff
Download or read book Neural Network Time Series written by E. Michael Azoff and published by . This book was released on 1994-09-27 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Comprehensively specified benchmarks are provided (including weight values), drawn from time series examples in chaos theory and financial futures. The book covers data preprocessing, random walk theory, trading systems and risk analysis. It also provides a literature review, a tutorial on backpropagation, and a chapter on further reading and software.
Book Synopsis Financial Forecasting for Business and Economics by : Eduard Jan Bomhoff
Download or read book Financial Forecasting for Business and Economics written by Eduard Jan Bomhoff and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 242 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This text summarizes the important new thinking on financial market forecasting and on the statistical modeling of non-stationary series in a clear and readable manner. The emphasis throughout is on real-life examples using data from a wide variety of countries and sources.
