Forecasting Economic Time Series Using Locally Stationary Processes

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Forecasting Economic Time Series Using Locally Stationary Processes

Author : Tina Loll
Publisher : Volkswirtschaftliche Analysen
ISBN 13 : 9783631621875
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (218 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting Economic Time Series Using Locally Stationary Processes by : Tina Loll

Download or read book Forecasting Economic Time Series Using Locally Stationary Processes written by Tina Loll and published by Volkswirtschaftliche Analysen. This book was released on 2012 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stationarity has always played an important part in forecasting theory. However, some economic time series show time-varying autocovariances. The question arises whether forecasts can be improved using models that capture such a time-varying second-order structure. One possibility is given by autoregressive models with time-varying parameters. The author focuses on the development of a forecasting procedure for these processes and compares this approach to classical forecasting methods by means of Monte Carlo simulations. An evaluation of the proposed procedure is given by its application to futures prices and the Dow Jones index. The approach turns out to be superior to the classical methods if the sample sizes are large and the forecasting horizons do not range too far into the future.

Time Series Analysis: Methods and Applications

Author :
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0444538631
Total Pages : 777 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (445 download)

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Book Synopsis Time Series Analysis: Methods and Applications by :

Download or read book Time Series Analysis: Methods and Applications written by and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2012-05-18 with total page 777 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The field of statistics not only affects all areas of scientific activity, but also many other matters such as public policy. It is branching rapidly into so many different subjects that a series of handbooks is the only way of comprehensively presenting the various aspects of statistical methodology, applications, and recent developments.The Handbook of Statistics is a series of self-contained reference books. Each volume is devoted to a particular topic in statistics, with Volume 30 dealing with time series. The series is addressed to the entire community of statisticians and scientists in various disciplines who use statistical methodology in their work. At the same time, special emphasis is placed on applications-oriented techniques, with the applied statistician in mind as the primary audience. - Comprehensively presents the various aspects of statistical methodology - Discusses a wide variety of diverse applications and recent developments - Contributors are internationally renowened experts in their respective areas

Forecasting Economic Time Series

Author : Michael Clements
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521634809
Total Pages : 402 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (348 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting Economic Time Series by : Michael Clements

Download or read book Forecasting Economic Time Series written by Michael Clements and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1998-10-08 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a formal analysis of the models, procedures, and measures of economic forecasting with a view to improving forecasting practice. David Hendry and Michael Clements base the analyses on assumptions pertinent to the economies to be forecast, viz. a non-constant, evolving economic system, and econometric models whose form and structure are unknown a priori. The authors find that conclusions which can be established formally for constant-parameter stationary processes and correctly-specified models often do not hold when unrealistic assumptions are relaxed. Despite the difficulty of proceeding formally when models are mis-specified in unknown ways for non-stationary processes that are subject to structural breaks, Hendry and Clements show that significant insights can be gleaned. For example, a formal taxonomy of forecasting errors can be developed, the role of causal information clarified, intercept corrections re-established as a method for achieving robustness against forms of structural change, and measures of forecast accuracy re-interpreted.

Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting

Author : Peter J. Brockwell
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1475725264
Total Pages : 429 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (757 download)

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Book Synopsis Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting by : Peter J. Brockwell

Download or read book Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting written by Peter J. Brockwell and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-14 with total page 429 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Some of the key mathematical results are stated without proof in order to make the underlying theory acccessible to a wider audience. The book assumes a knowledge only of basic calculus, matrix algebra, and elementary statistics. The emphasis is on methods and the analysis of data sets. The logic and tools of model-building for stationary and non-stationary time series are developed in detail and numerous exercises, many of which make use of the included computer package, provide the reader with ample opportunity to develop skills in this area. The core of the book covers stationary processes, ARMA and ARIMA processes, multivariate time series and state-space models, with an optional chapter on spectral analysis. Additional topics include harmonic regression, the Burg and Hannan-Rissanen algorithms, unit roots, regression with ARMA errors, structural models, the EM algorithm, generalized state-space models with applications to time series of count data, exponential smoothing, the Holt-Winters and ARAR forecasting algorithms, transfer function models and intervention analysis. Brief introducitons are also given to cointegration and to non-linear, continuous-time and long-memory models. The time series package included in the back of the book is a slightly modified version of the package ITSM, published separately as ITSM for Windows, by Springer-Verlag, 1994. It does not handle such large data sets as ITSM for Windows, but like the latter, runs on IBM-PC compatible computers under either DOS or Windows (version 3.1 or later). The programs are all menu-driven so that the reader can immediately apply the techniques in the book to time series data, with a minimal investment of time in the computational and algorithmic aspects of the analysis.

GROUP 24

Author : J.P Gazeau
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 9780750309332
Total Pages : 1004 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (93 download)

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Book Synopsis GROUP 24 by : J.P Gazeau

Download or read book GROUP 24 written by J.P Gazeau and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2003-11-30 with total page 1004 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: One of the most enduring elements in theoretical physics has been group theory. GROUP 24: Physical and Mathematical Aspects of Symmetries provides an important selection of informative articles describing recent advances in the field. The applications of group theory presented in this book deal not only with the traditional fields of physics, but also include such disciplines as chemistry and biology. Awarded the Wigner Medal and the Weyl Prize, respectively, H.J. Lipkin and E. Frenkel begin the volume with their contributions. Plenary session contributions are represented by 18 longer articles, followed by nearly 200 shorter articles. The book also presents coherent states, wavelets, and applications and quantum group theory and integrable systems in two separate sections. As a record of an international meeting devoted to the physical and mathematical aspects of group theory, GROUP 24: Physical and Mathematical Aspects of Symmetries constitutes an essential reference for all researchers interested in various current developments related to the important concept of symmetry.

Time Series Analysis: Methods and Applications

Author : Tata Subba Rao
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0444538585
Total Pages : 778 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (445 download)

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Book Synopsis Time Series Analysis: Methods and Applications by : Tata Subba Rao

Download or read book Time Series Analysis: Methods and Applications written by Tata Subba Rao and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2012-06-26 with total page 778 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'Handbook of Statistics' is a series of self-contained reference books. Each volume is devoted to a particular topic in statistics, with volume 30 dealing with time series.

Statistics in Volcanology

Author : Heidy M. Mader
Publisher : Geological Society of London
ISBN 13 : 9781862392083
Total Pages : 304 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (92 download)

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Book Synopsis Statistics in Volcanology by : Heidy M. Mader

Download or read book Statistics in Volcanology written by Heidy M. Mader and published by Geological Society of London. This book was released on 2006 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistics in Volcanology is a comprehensive guide to modern statistical methods applied in volcanology written by today's leading authorities. The volume aims to show how the statistical analysis of complex volcanological data sets, including time series, and numerical models of volcanic processes can improve our ability to forecast volcanic eruptions. Specific topics include the use of expert elicitation and Bayesian methods in eruption forecasting, statistical models of temporal and spatial patterns of volcanic activity, analysis of time series in volcano seismology, probabilistic hazard assessment, and assessment of numerical models using robust statistical methods. Also provided are comprehensive overviews of volcanic phenomena, and a full glossary of both volcanological and statistical terms. Statistics in Volcanology is essential reading for advanced undergraduates, graduate students, and research scientists interested in this multidisciplinary field.

Time Series Analysis

Author : Rifaat Abdalla
Publisher : BoD – Books on Demand
ISBN 13 : 1803563052
Total Pages : 206 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (35 download)

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Book Synopsis Time Series Analysis by : Rifaat Abdalla

Download or read book Time Series Analysis written by Rifaat Abdalla and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2023-01-18 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Time series data consist of a collection of observations obtained through repeated measurements over time. When the points are plotted on a graph, one of the axes is always time. Time series analysis is a specific way of analyzing a sequence of data points. Time series data are everywhere since time is a constituent of everything that is observable. As our world becomes increasingly digitized, sensors and systems are constantly emitting a relentless stream of time series data, which has numerous applications across various industries. The editors of this book are happy to provide the specialized reader community with this book as a modest contribution to this rapidly developing domain.

Modelling Non-Stationary Economic Time Series

Author : S. Burke
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 0230005780
Total Pages : 253 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (3 download)

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Book Synopsis Modelling Non-Stationary Economic Time Series by : S. Burke

Download or read book Modelling Non-Stationary Economic Time Series written by S. Burke and published by Springer. This book was released on 2005-06-14 with total page 253 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Co-integration, equilibrium and equilibrium correction are key concepts in modern applications of econometrics to real world problems. This book provides direction and guidance to the now vast literature facing students and graduate economists. Econometric theory is linked to practical issues such as how to identify equilibrium relationships, how to deal with structural breaks associated with regime changes and what to do when variables are of different orders of integration.

Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications

Author : Luc Bauwens
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118272056
Total Pages : 566 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (182 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications by : Luc Bauwens

Download or read book Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications written by Luc Bauwens and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-03-22 with total page 566 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A complete guide to the theory and practice of volatility models in financial engineering Volatility has become a hot topic in this era of instant communications, spawning a great deal of research in empirical finance and time series econometrics. Providing an overview of the most recent advances, Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications explores key concepts and topics essential for modeling the volatility of financial time series, both univariate and multivariate, parametric and non-parametric, high-frequency and low-frequency. Featuring contributions from international experts in the field, the book features numerous examples and applications from real-world projects and cutting-edge research, showing step by step how to use various methods accurately and efficiently when assessing volatility rates. Following a comprehensive introduction to the topic, readers are provided with three distinct sections that unify the statistical and practical aspects of volatility: Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity and Stochastic Volatility presents ARCH and stochastic volatility models, with a focus on recent research topics including mean, volatility, and skewness spillovers in equity markets Other Models and Methods presents alternative approaches, such as multiplicative error models, nonparametric and semi-parametric models, and copula-based models of (co)volatilities Realized Volatility explores issues of the measurement of volatility by realized variances and covariances, guiding readers on how to successfully model and forecast these measures Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications is an essential reference for academics and practitioners in finance, business, and econometrics who work with volatility models in their everyday work. The book also serves as a supplement for courses on risk management and volatility at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.

Introduction to Modern Time Series Analysis

Author : Gebhard Kirchgässner
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9783540687351
Total Pages : 288 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (873 download)

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Book Synopsis Introduction to Modern Time Series Analysis by : Gebhard Kirchgässner

Download or read book Introduction to Modern Time Series Analysis written by Gebhard Kirchgässner and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-08-27 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents modern developments in time series econometrics that are applied to macroeconomic and financial time series. It contains the most important approaches to analyze time series which may be stationary or nonstationary.

Time Series Econometrics

Author : Pierre Perron
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9789813237896
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (378 download)

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Book Synopsis Time Series Econometrics by : Pierre Perron

Download or read book Time Series Econometrics written by Pierre Perron and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Part I. Unit roots and trend breaks -- Part II. Structural change

Handbook of Economic Forecasting

Author : G. Elliott
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0080460674
Total Pages : 1071 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (84 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of Economic Forecasting by : G. Elliott

Download or read book Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by G. Elliott and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2006-05-30 with total page 1071 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Research on forecasting methods has made important progress over recent years and these developments are brought together in the Handbook of Economic Forecasting. The handbook covers developments in how forecasts are constructed based on multivariate time-series models, dynamic factor models, nonlinear models and combination methods. The handbook also includes chapters on forecast evaluation, including evaluation of point forecasts and probability forecasts and contains chapters on survey forecasts and volatility forecasts. Areas of applications of forecasts covered in the handbook include economics, finance and marketing.*Addresses economic forecasting methodology, forecasting models, forecasting with different data structures, and the applications of forecasting methods *Insights within this volume can be applied to economics, finance and marketing disciplines

Unobserved Components and Time Series Econometrics

Author : Siem Jan Koopman
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0199683662
Total Pages : 389 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (996 download)

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Book Synopsis Unobserved Components and Time Series Econometrics by : Siem Jan Koopman

Download or read book Unobserved Components and Time Series Econometrics written by Siem Jan Koopman and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2015 with total page 389 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Presents original and up-to-date studies in unobserved components (UC) time series models from both theoretical and methodological perspectives.

Time Series Techniques for Economists

Author : Terence C. Mills
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521405744
Total Pages : 392 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (57 download)

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Book Synopsis Time Series Techniques for Economists by : Terence C. Mills

Download or read book Time Series Techniques for Economists written by Terence C. Mills and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1990 with total page 392 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The application of time series techniques in economics has become increasingly important, both for forecasting purposes and in the empirical analysis of time series in general. In this book, Terence Mills not only brings together recent research at the frontiers of the subject, but also analyses the areas of most importance to applied economics. It is an up-to-date text which extends the basic techniques of analysis to cover the development of methods that can be used to analyse a wide range of economic problems. The book analyses three basic areas of time series analysis: univariate models, multivariate models, and non-linear models. In each case the basic theory is outlined and then extended to cover recent developments. Particular emphasis is placed on applications of the theory to important areas of applied economics and on the computer software and programs needed to implement the techniques. This book clearly distinguishes itself from its competitors by emphasising the techniques of time series modelling rather than technical aspects such as estimation, and by the breadth of the models considered. It features many detailed real-world examples using a wide range of actual time series. It will be useful to econometricians and specialists in forecasting and finance and accessible to most practitioners in economics and the allied professions.

Statistical Analysis and Forecasting of Economic Structural Change

Author : Peter Hackl
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 366202571X
Total Pages : 495 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (62 download)

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Book Synopsis Statistical Analysis and Forecasting of Economic Structural Change by : Peter Hackl

Download or read book Statistical Analysis and Forecasting of Economic Structural Change written by Peter Hackl and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 495 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 1984, the University of Bonn (FRG) and the International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA) in Laxenburg (Austria), created a joint research group to analyze the relationship between economic growth and structural change. The research team was to examine the commodity composition as well as the size and direction of commodity and credit flows among countries and regions. Krelle (1988) reports on the results of this "Bonn-IIASA" research project. At the same time, an informal IIASA Working Group was initiated to deal with prob lems of the statistical analysis of economic data in the context of structural change: What tools do we have to identify nonconstancy of model parameters? What type of models are particularly applicable to nonconstant structure? How is forecasting affected by the presence of nonconstant structure? What problems should be anticipated in applying these tools and models? Some 50 experts, mainly statisticians or econometricians from about 15 countries, came together in Lodz, Poland (May 1985); Berlin, GDR (June 1986); and Sulejov, Poland (September 1986) to present and discuss their findings. This volume contains a selected set of those conference contributions as well as several specially invited chapters.

Financial Mathematics, Volatility and Covariance Modelling

Author : Julien Chevallier
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1351669087
Total Pages : 372 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (516 download)

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Book Synopsis Financial Mathematics, Volatility and Covariance Modelling by : Julien Chevallier

Download or read book Financial Mathematics, Volatility and Covariance Modelling written by Julien Chevallier and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-06-28 with total page 372 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides an up-to-date series of advanced chapters on applied financial econometric techniques pertaining the various fields of commodities finance, mathematics & stochastics, international macroeconomics and financial econometrics. Financial Mathematics, Volatility and Covariance Modelling: Volume 2 provides a key repository on the current state of knowledge, the latest debates and recent literature on financial mathematics, volatility and covariance modelling. The first section is devoted to mathematical finance, stochastic modelling and control optimization. Chapters explore the recent financial crisis, the increase of uncertainty and volatility, and propose an alternative approach to deal with these issues. The second section covers financial volatility and covariance modelling and explores proposals for dealing with recent developments in financial econometrics This book will be useful to students and researchers in applied econometrics; academics and students seeking convenient access to an unfamiliar area. It will also be of great interest established researchers seeking a single repository on the current state of knowledge, current debates and relevant literature.