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Author : Karen Redman
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781737759911
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (599 download)
Download or read book Flawed Judgment written by Karen Redman and published by . This book was released on 2021-12-30 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Daniel Kahneman
Publisher : Little, Brown
ISBN 13 : 031645138X
Total Pages : 429 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (164 download)
Download or read book Noise written by Daniel Kahneman and published by Little, Brown. This book was released on 2021-05-18 with total page 429 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and the coauthor of Nudge, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones—"a tour de force” (New York Times). Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients—or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants—or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical. In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions. Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment—and what we can do about it.
Author : Meghan March
Publisher : Meghan March LLC
ISBN 13 : 1943796807
Total Pages : 333 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (437 download)
Download or read book Bad Judgment written by Meghan March and published by Meghan March LLC. This book was released on 2016-08-19 with total page 333 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A sexy enemies-to-lovers STANDALONE romance from New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and USA Today bestselling author Meghan March. He’s arrogant. She’s self-righteous. I hate him. I want her. I’ve been turning him down for two years straight. Every shut-down makes me work harder. I’m not a one-night stand kind of girl. She doesn’t realize I won’t settle for only one night. He’s a distraction I don’t need. She’ll say yes eventually because I’m not giving up. *** “My final ruling is that Bad Judgment is Meghan March’s best work yet.”—USA Today bestselling author T.M. Frazier "We absolutely couldn't get enough of this fresh storyline, the insanely combustible steam and a gripping ending you will NOT see coming!" —The Rockstars of Romance “Meghan March’s writing is so addictive. From the very first page she sucks you in, and that’s exactly what happened with Bad Judgment. It was sexy, angsty, and consuming. Another fantastic read from Meghan. PS, thanks for keeping me up late at night.” —USA Today bestselling author Meghan Quinn ___ Topics: Enemies-to-lovers, enemies-to-lovers romance, students, law school, law school romance, alpha, alpha male romance, strong female lead, strong heroine, romantic comedy, hot, hot school romance, standalone, standalone romance.
Author : Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400888816
Total Pages : 368 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)
Download or read book Expert Political Judgment written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-08-29 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
Author : Sidney Bell
Publisher : Carina Press
ISBN 13 : 1488020124
Total Pages : 287 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (88 download)
Download or read book Bad Judgment written by Sidney Bell and published by Carina Press. This book was released on 2016-09-19 with total page 287 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A man’s quest for vengeance is upended when he gets irresistibly close to the enemy’s bodyguard in this tense M/M romantic thriller. Embry Ford was a quiet, ordinary guy—until tragedy ripped his life apart. Now he’s living under the radar, desperate to hide his identity and determined to learn the truth behind what happened. Even if that means working for—and bedding—a man he loathes. As a bodyguard to a shadowy arms dealer, Brogan Smith knows distractions can kill as easily as a bullet. But when he sets his eyes on his client’s sexy assistant, he can’t get him out of his mind. Even more unnerving: the closer he gets to Embry, the more Brogan starts to suspect he might be protecting the wrong man. Embry was sure nothing but vengeance would satisfy him—until Brogan offers him something far more tempting. Now Embry must choose: punish the people who nearly destroyed him or fight for a future with the man who has become his entire world.
Author : Jim De Fee
Publisher : Xlibris Corporation
ISBN 13 : 9781413435535
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (355 download)
Download or read book Flawed Judgment written by Jim De Fee and published by Xlibris Corporation. This book was released on 2004-11 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Carl Anderson is a straight-arrow attorney whose only flaw is blind allegiance to a wealthy client charged with the shotgun murder of his socialite wife and her lover, the local District Attorney. In a daring gung-ho defense Anderson puts his own life and career on the line when he boldly accuses the presiding judge of being the real killer. In the face of overwhelming odds he devises a clever but risky psychological scheme to expose the corrupt magistrate who is slated to become Chief Justice of the State Supreme Court. If the plan fails, disbarment of Anderson or worse will certainly follow. Sex, violence, corruption...even virtue...abounds.
Author : Michel Balinski
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262545713
Total Pages : 431 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (625 download)
Download or read book Majority Judgment written by Michel Balinski and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2022-06-07 with total page 431 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An account of a new theory and method of voting, judging and ranking, majority judgment, shown to be superior to all other known methods. In Majority Judgment, Michel Balinski and Rida Laraki argue that the traditional theory of social choice offers no acceptable solution to the problems of how to elect, to judge, or to rank. They find that the traditional model—transforming the "preference lists" of individuals into a "preference list" of society—is fundamentally flawed in both theory and practice. Balinski and Laraki propose a more realistic model. It leads to an entirely new theory and method—majority judgment—proven superior to all known methods. It is at once meaningful, resists strategic manipulation, elicits honesty, and is not subject to the classical paradoxes encountered in practice, notably Condorcet's and Arrow's. They offer theoretical, practical, and experimental evidence—from national elections to figure skating competitions—to support their arguments. Drawing on insights from wine, sports, music, and other competitions, Balinski and Laraki argue that the question should not be how to transform many individual rankings into a single collective ranking, but rather, after defining a common language of grades to measure merit, how to transform the many individual evaluations of each competitor into a single collective evaluation of all competitors. The crux of the matter is a new model in which the traditional paradigm—to compare—is replaced by a new paradigm—to evaluate.
Author : Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher : Crown
ISBN 13 : 080413670X
Total Pages : 331 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (41 download)
Download or read book Superforecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Crown. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Author : Thomas H. Davenport
Publisher : Harvard Business Review Press
ISBN 13 : 142215811X
Total Pages : 280 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (221 download)
Download or read book Judgment Calls written by Thomas H. Davenport and published by Harvard Business Review Press. This book was released on 2012-04-03 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Your guide to making better decisions Despite the dizzying amount of data at our disposal today—and an increasing reliance on analytics to make the majority of our decisions—many of our most critical choices still come down to human judgment. This fact is fundamental to organizations whose leaders must often make crucial decisions: to do this they need the best available insights. In Judgment Calls, authors Tom Davenport and Brook Manville share twelve stories of organizations that have successfully tapped their data assets, diverse perspectives, and deep knowledge to build an organizational decision-making capability—a competence they say can make the difference between success and failure. This book introduces a model that taps the collective judgment of an organization so that the right decisions are made, and the entire organization profits. Through the stories in Judgment Calls, the authors—both of them seasoned management thinkers and advisers—make the case for the wisdom of organizations and suggest ways to use it to best advantage. Each chapter tells a unique story of one dilemma and its ultimate resolution, bringing into high relief one key to the power of collective judgment. Individually, these stories inspire and instruct; together, they form a model for building an organizational capacity for broadly based, knowledge-intensive decision making. You’ve read The Wisdom of Crowds and Competing on Analytics. Now read Judgment Calls. You, and your organization, will make better decisions.
Author : Eric J. Johnson
Publisher : Simon and Schuster
ISBN 13 : 0861541197
Total Pages : 400 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (615 download)
Download or read book The Elements of Choice written by Eric J. Johnson and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2022-02-10 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ‘Indispensable’ Daniel Kahneman How do you get people to agree to donate their organs? What’s the trick to reading a wine list? What’s the perfect number of potential matches a dating site should offer? Every time we make a choice, our minds go through an elaborate process most of us never even notice. We’re influenced by subtle aspects of the way the choice is presented that often make the difference between a good decision and a bad one. To overcome the common faults in our decision-making and enable better choices in any situation involves conscious and intentional decision design. Transcending the familiar concepts of nudges and defaults, The Elements of Choice offers a comprehensive, systematic guide to creating effective choice architectures, the environments in which we make decisions. The designers of decisions need to consider all the elements involved in presenting a choice: how many options to offer, how to present those options, how to account for our natural cognitive shortcuts, and much more. These levers are unappreciated, yet they impact our reasoning every day. This book doesn’t simply analyse the mental fallacies that trip us up. It goes further to show us what good decision-making looks like – that it can be both moral and effective.
Author : Daniel Kahneman
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521284141
Total Pages : 574 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (841 download)
Download or read book Judgment Under Uncertainty written by Daniel Kahneman and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1982-04-30 with total page 574 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Thirty-five chapters describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments, but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas rather than describing single experimental studies.
Author : Joan Wallach Scott
Publisher : Columbia University Press
ISBN 13 : 0231551908
Total Pages : 80 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (315 download)
Download or read book On the Judgment of History written by Joan Wallach Scott and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2020-09-22 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the face of conflict and despair, we often console ourselves by saying that history will be the judge. Today’s oppressors may escape being held responsible for their crimes, but the future will condemn them. Those who stand up for progressive values are on the right side of history. As ideas once condemned to the dustbin of history—white supremacy, hypernationalism, even fascism—return to the world, threatening democratic institutions and values, can we still hold out hope that history will render its verdict? Joan Wallach Scott critically examines the belief that history will redeem us, revealing the implicit politics of appeals to the judgment of history. She argues that the notion of a linear, ever-improving direction of history hides the persistence of power structures and hinders the pursuit of alternative futures. This vision of necessary progress perpetuates the assumption that the nation-state is the culmination of history and the ultimate source for rectifying injustice. Scott considers the Nuremberg Tribunal and South Africa’s Truth and Reconciliation Commission, which claimed to carry out history’s judgment on Nazism and apartheid, and contrasts them with the movement for reparations for slavery in the United States. Advocates for reparations call into question a national history that has long ignored enslavement and its racist legacies. Only by this kind of critical questioning of the place of the nation-state as the final source of history’s judgment, this book shows, can we open up room for radically different conceptions of justice.
Author : Noel M. Tichy
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 1101216549
Total Pages : 412 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (12 download)
Download or read book Judgment written by Noel M. Tichy and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2007-11-08 with total page 412 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “With good judgment, little else matters. Without it, nothing else matters.” Whether we’re talking about United States presidents, CEOs, Major League coaches, or wartime generals, leaders are remembered for their best and worst judgment calls. In the face of ambiguity, uncertainty, and conflicting demands, the quality of a leader’s judgment determines the fate of the entire organization. That’s why judgment is the essence of leadership. Yet despite its importance, judgment has always been a fairly murky concept. The leadership literature has been conspicuously quiet on what, exactly, defines it. Does judgment differ from common sense or gut instinct? Is it a product of luck? Of smarts? Or is there a process for making consistently good calls? Noel Tichy and Warren Bennis have each spent decades studying and teaching leadership and advising top CEOs such as Jack Welch and Howard Schultz. Now, in their first collaboration, they offer a powerful framework for making tough calls when the stakes are high and the right path is far from obvious. They show how to recognize the critical moment before a judgment call, when swift and decisive action is essential, and also how to execute a decision after the call. Tichy and Bennis bring their three-dimensional model to life with interviews with world-class leaders who have thrived or suffered because of their judgment calls. These stories include: • Jeff Immelt, CEO of General Electric, whose judgment to grow through research and development transformed GE into the world’s premier technology growth company. • Joel Klein, chancellor of the New York City Department of Education, who made tough calls about teachers, students, and parents while turning around a troubled school system. • Jim McNerney, CEO of Boeing, whose strategic judgment helped him reinvigorate his company and restore a culture of trust and respect. • The late general Wayne Downing, who found an unexpected opportunity in the midst of crisis when he led the Special Operations raid to capture Manuel Noriega. • A. G. Lafley, CEO of Procter & Gamble, who bet $57 billion to purchase Gillette and reinvent his company. • Brad Anderson, CEO of Best Buy, who made the call to commit totally to a customer-centric strategy and led his people to execute it. Whether you’re running a small department or a global corporation, Judgment will give you a framework for evaluating any situation, making the call, and correcting if necessary during the execution phase. It will show you how to handle the overlapping domains of people, strategy, and crisis management. And it will help you teach your entire team to make the right call more often. No organization can afford to neglect this crucial discipline—and no previous book has ever brought it into such clear focus.
Author : Jonathan Baron
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN 13 : 0195111087
Total Pages : 238 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (951 download)
Download or read book Judgment Misguided written by Jonathan Baron and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 1998 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: People often follow intuitive principles of decision making, ranging from group loyalty to the belief that nature is benign. But instead of using these principles as rules of thumb, we often treat them as absolutes and ignore the consequences of following them blindly. In Judgment Misguided, Jonathan Baron explores our well-meant and deeply felt personal intuitions about what is right and wrong, and how they affect the public domain. Baron argues that when these intuitions are valued in their own right, rather than as a means to another end, they often prevent us from achieving the results we want. Focusing on cases where our intuitive principles take over public decision making, the book examines some of our most common intuitions and the ways they can be misused. According to Baron, we can avoid these problems by paying more attention to the effects of our decisions. Written in a accessible style, the book is filled with compelling case studies, such as abortion, nuclear power, immigration, and the decline of the Atlantic fishery, among others, which illustrate a range of intuitions and how they impede the public's best interests. Judgment Misguided will be important reading for those involved in public decision making, and researchers and students in psychology and the social sciences, as well as everyone looking for insight into the decisions that affect us all.
Author : Daniel Kahneman
Publisher : Farrar, Straus and Giroux
ISBN 13 : 1429969350
Total Pages : 511 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (299 download)
Download or read book Thinking, Fast and Slow written by Daniel Kahneman and published by Farrar, Straus and Giroux. This book was released on 2011-10-25 with total page 511 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Major New York Times bestseller Winner of the National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award in 2012 Selected by the New York Times Book Review as one of the ten best books of 2011 A Globe and Mail Best Books of the Year 2011 Title One of The Economist's 2011 Books of the Year One of The Wall Street Journal's Best Nonfiction Books of the Year 2011 2013 Presidential Medal of Freedom Recipient Kahneman's work with Amos Tversky is the subject of Michael Lewis's The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds In his mega bestseller, Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman, the renowned psychologist and winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, takes us on a groundbreaking tour of the mind and explains the two systems that drive the way we think. System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. The impact of overconfidence on corporate strategies, the difficulties of predicting what will make us happy in the future, the profound effect of cognitive biases on everything from playing the stock market to planning our next vacation—each of these can be understood only by knowing how the two systems shape our judgments and decisions. Engaging the reader in a lively conversation about how we think, Kahneman reveals where we can and cannot trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking. He offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and our personal lives—and how we can use different techniques to guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble. Winner of the National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award and the Los Angeles Times Book Prize and selected by The New York Times Book Review as one of the ten best books of 2011, Thinking, Fast and Slow is destined to be a classic.
Author : Kayes, Anna B.
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1839104104
Total Pages : 256 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (391 download)
Download or read book Judgment and Leadership written by Kayes, Anna B. and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2021-10-12 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Judgment and Leadership presents original thinking and addresses age-old concerns regarding the relationship between judgment and leadership. These two concepts are inseparable. Judgment guides every action that a leader takes and underlies every thought, emotion, or justification that leaders form. This volume extends the study of judgment and leadership across disciplinary and conceptual boundaries.
Author : Joseph Finder
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 1101985836
Total Pages : 530 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (19 download)
Download or read book Judgment written by Joseph Finder and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2019-07-30 with total page 530 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: **The Instant NEW YORK TIMES Bestseller** New York Times bestselling author Joseph Finder returns with an explosive new thriller about a female judge and the one personal misstep that could lead to her—and her family's—downfall. It was nothing more than a one-night stand. Juliana Brody, a judge in the Superior Court of Massachusetts, is rumored to be in consideration for the federal circuit, maybe someday the highest court in the land. At a conference in a Chicago hotel, she meets a gentle, vulnerable man and has an unforgettable night with him—something she’d never done before. They part with an explicit understanding that this must never happen again. But back home in Boston, Juliana realizes that this was no random encounter. The man from Chicago proves to have an integral role in a case she's presiding over--a sex-discrimination case that's received national attention. Juliana discovers that she's been entrapped, her night of infidelity captured on video. Strings are being pulled in high places, a terrifying unfolding conspiracy that will turn her life upside down. But soon it becomes clear that personal humiliation, even the possible destruction of her career, are the least of her concerns, as her own life and the lives of her family are put in mortal jeopardy. In the end, turning the tables on her adversaries will require her to be as ruthless as they are.
