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Fiscal Risks
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Book Synopsis Government at Risk by : Hana Polackova Brixi
Download or read book Government at Risk written by Hana Polackova Brixi and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2002 with total page 492 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many governments have faced serious instability as a result of their contingent liabilities. But conventional public finance analysis and institutions fail to address such fiscal risks. This book aims to provide motivation and practical guidance to governments seeking to improve their management of fiscal risks. The book addresses some of the difficult analytical and institutional challenges that face reformers tooling up to manage government fiscal risks. It discusses the inadequacies of conventional practices as well as recent advances in dealing with fiscal risk.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Risks - Sources, Disclosure, and Management by : International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Download or read book Fiscal Risks - Sources, Disclosure, and Management written by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-05-31 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A number of member countries have expressed interest in advice regarding disclosure and management of fiscal risks (defined as the possibility of deviations of fiscal outcomes from what was expected at the time of the budget or other forecast). This paper analyzes the main sources of fiscal risks and—building on an overview of existing practices in a wide range of countries—provides practical suggestions in this area, including a possible Statement of Fiscal Risks and a set of Guidelines for Fiscal Risk Disclosure and Management.
Book Synopsis Analyzing and Managing Fiscal Risks - Best Practices by : International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Download or read book Analyzing and Managing Fiscal Risks - Best Practices written by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-04-05 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Comprehensive analysis and management of fiscal risks can help ensure sound fiscal public finances and macroeconomic stability. This has been underscored by the global financial crisis and the more recent collapse in commodity prices, which starkly illustrate the vulnerability of public finances to risk. Indeed, over the past quarter century, governments experienced on average an adverse fiscal shock of 6 percent of GDP once every 12 years, with some of the largest stemming from financial crises. Countries need a more complete understanding of these potential threats to their fiscal position. Existing fiscal risk disclosure and analysis practices tend to be incomplete, fragmented, and qualitative in nature. A more comprehensive and integrated assessment of the potential shocks to government finances, in the form of a fiscal stress test, can help policymakers simulate the effects of shocks to their central forecasts and their implications for government solvency, liquidity, and financing needs. Comprehensive, reliable, and timely fiscal data covering all public entities, stocks, and flows are a necessary foundation for such analysis. Countries should also enhance their capacity to mitigate and manage fiscal risks. Fiscal risk management practices are often blunt, ad hoc, and too focused on imposing limits on the creation of exposures. Countries need to expand their toolkits for fiscal risk management and adopt the use of instruments to transfer, share, or provision for risks. In doing so, countries need to weigh the possible benefits from reducing their exposure to shocks against the financial and other costs of the policies that may be needed. Finally, countries should make greater use of probabilistic forecasting methods when setting long-run objectives and medium-term targets for fiscal policy. The paper illustrates how simple probabilistic tools can be used to map the uncertainty around medium-term trajectories for public debt. In combination with fiscal stress tests, these tools can provide valuable information regarding the probabilities that a country will stay within the debt ceilings embedded in their fiscal rules. The Fund is playing an important role in supporting improvements in fiscal risk analysis and management among its members. This includes technical assistance in constructing public sector balance sheets; developing institutions and capacity to identify specific fiscal risks and to quantify their potential impact; undertaking fiscal stress tests; and integrating risks into the design of medium-term fiscal targets.
Book Synopsis Standards for Internal Control in the Federal Government by : United States Government Accountability Office
Download or read book Standards for Internal Control in the Federal Government written by United States Government Accountability Office and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2019-03-24 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Policymakers and program managers are continually seeking ways to improve accountability in achieving an entity's mission. A key factor in improving accountability in achieving an entity's mission is to implement an effective internal control system. An effective internal control system helps an entity adapt to shifting environments, evolving demands, changing risks, and new priorities. As programs change and entities strive to improve operational processes and implement new technology, management continually evaluates its internal control system so that it is effective and updated when necessary. Section 3512 (c) and (d) of Title 31 of the United States Code (commonly known as the Federal Managers' Financial Integrity Act (FMFIA)) requires the Comptroller General to issue standards for internal control in the federal government.
Book Synopsis How to Assess Fiscal Risks from State-Owned Enterprises by : Ms. Anja Baum
Download or read book How to Assess Fiscal Risks from State-Owned Enterprises written by Ms. Anja Baum and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-08-19 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The size and operation of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) can imply significant risks for governments. SOEs are present in virtually every country in the world and are major players in domestic economies and in global markets. In some countries, they number in the thousands and are owned by national or subnational governments. SOEs are among the largest corporations in some advanced economies and comprise a third or more of the largest firms in several emerging markets. Many operate with systematic losses and carry significant liabilities. If SOEs face adverse shocks and financial distress they can impact the government budget or balance sheet through numerous transmission channels. This How to Note describes a newly developed SOE risk assessment tool to help country authorities and IMF country teams. The analysis can provide inputs for annual budgets and medium-term fiscal planning. This includes providing estimates of possible transfers to and from SOEs to the budget and possible financing needs. The note outlines the main steps and elements of the template to assess fiscal risks for governments from individual SOEs. The first step is to collect financial information on SOEs and their relation to the government budget, and to provide a benchmark against other SOEs in similar sectors. A second step is to do a forward-looking analysis based on baseline forecasts and stress scenarios, to identify and analyze possible risks and their impact on government accounts.
Book Synopsis How to Manage Fiscal Risks from Subnational Governments by : Sandeep Saxena
Download or read book How to Manage Fiscal Risks from Subnational Governments written by Sandeep Saxena and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-09 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Subnational governments can create sizable fiscal risks for central governments. In addition to impacting service delivery at the grassroots level, unsustainable subnational finances can be a continuous drain on central resources. The need for stronger public financial management systems and capacities to analyze and manage risks at the subnational government level cannot be overemphasized. Central governments need to develop sound institutional mechanisms to systematically monitor the health of subnational finances to be able to proactively manage associated risks. This How to Note provides a framework for central governments that seek to assess and manage fiscal risks stemming from weak subnational finances. It analyzes the sources of subnational finance vulnerabilities and argues that central governments would benefit from putting in place the following: (1) a stronger regulatory framework, (2) improved fiscal reporting, and (3) enhanced central oversight. The lessons distilled from the international experience are particularly useful for developing economies where the management of risks can be improved.
Book Synopsis Georgia: Technical Assistance Report-Updating the Balance Sheet and Quantifying Fiscal Risks From Climate Change by : International Monetary
Download or read book Georgia: Technical Assistance Report-Updating the Balance Sheet and Quantifying Fiscal Risks From Climate Change written by International Monetary and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-05-27 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Georgian Ministry of Finance (MoF) has continued to progress its analysis and reporting of fiscal risks, with its annual Fiscal Risk Statement (FRS) becoming the leading example in the region. In addition to detailed discussions of risks from SOEs and the balance sheet, amongst other, the December 2020 FRS included for the first time a qualitative discussion on the fiscal risks from climate change. Looking ahead, the government has committed to strengthening that further with the inclusion of quantitative estimates in the 2022 version of the FRS. This report provides the tools and analytical approaches to support that, as well as an update to the public sector balance (PSBS) sheet to identify the impact of the pandemic.
Book Synopsis Managing Fiscal Risks from National Airlines in Pacific Island Countries by : Vybhavi Balasundharam
Download or read book Managing Fiscal Risks from National Airlines in Pacific Island Countries written by Vybhavi Balasundharam and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-07-09 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Pacific island countries (PICs) rely on national airlines for connectivity, trade, and tourism. These airlines are being struck hard by COVID-19. Losses will weigh on public sector balance sheets and pose risks to economic recovery. With a backdrop of tight fiscal space and increasing government debt, losses in airlines are adding to fiscal risks in some PICs. This paper discusses tools to evaluate and manage the fiscal risks from national airlines in the Pacific. We present a snapshot of the current state of Public Financial Management (PFM) practices in PICs and detail the best practices. This exercise would illustrate the areas in which PICs have scope to improve their risk management with regard to national airlines. We then discuss the use of diagnostic tools and capacity development to enhance monitoring and risk management. Greater transparency and accountability in the airlines, combined with rigorous oversight, would be the first step towards improved financial management of national airlines.
Book Synopsis Monitoring and Managing Fiscal Risks in the East African Community by : Mr.Paolo Mauro
Download or read book Monitoring and Managing Fiscal Risks in the East African Community written by Mr.Paolo Mauro and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-08-13 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper takes stock of the main fiscal risks facing the EAC partner countries. These include macroeconomic shocks, and specific risks, such as the financial performance of the public enterprises, large infrastructure projects, PPPs, and pension funds. In addition, weaknesses in the institutional framework are reviewed. This analysis highlights some of the largest risks and begins to give a sense of the potential magnitudes involved.
Book Synopsis Managing Fiscal Risks in the Middle East and North Africa by : Racheeda Boukezia
Download or read book Managing Fiscal Risks in the Middle East and North Africa written by Racheeda Boukezia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-06-11 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Countries in the Middle East and North Africa are exposed to significant fiscal risks. This paper analyzes the sources of these fiscal risks in 17 low- and middle-income countries in the Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan region, excluding high-income Gulf countries (MENAPEG), and discusses avenues for reform to strengthen fiscal risk management. The materialization of fiscal risks in MENAPEG has been driven by macroeconomic shocks, contingent liabilities, and tail-risk events. The region has a track record of volatile economic growth and sharp exchange rate movements. High dependence on hydrocarbon revenue among MENAPEG oil and gas exporters and pervasive universal subsidies generate considerable budgetary exposure to swings in commodity prices. Substantial government involvement in the economy and large state ownership of firms and banks exposes several MENAPEG countries to contingent liabilities from state-owned enterprises and the financial sector. Lastly, the region’s history of social unrest and conflicts together with tail-risk events such as the recent COVID-19 pandemic, and natural disasters and climate change, have been important sources of fiscal risks. Many of the factors historically associated with the materialization of fiscal risks in MENAPEG countries are likely to remain sources of vulnerability in the future, raising the need for robust fiscal risk management frameworks. Policy reform can strengthen fiscal risk management in MENAPEG. This paper describes precedents where progress is made and provides a broad analytical framework for policymakers to build upon to fully embrace fiscal risk management in all its dimensions. Going forward, it is crucial for national authorities to enhance their capacity to identify, quantify, and assess risk factors and their budget’s exposure to them. This should be followed by thorough fiscal risk analysis to inform policy decisions to mitigate risks. Where risks cannot be mitigated or are judged to be acceptable, countries should consider adopting appropriate medium-term fiscal frameworks to build buffers to deal with them.
Book Synopsis Financial Management of Flood Risk by : OECD
Download or read book Financial Management of Flood Risk written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2016-07-29 with total page 138 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Disasters present a broad range of human, social, financial, economic and environmental impacts, with potentially long-lasting effects. This report applies the lessons from the OECD’s analysis of disaster risk financing practices and its risk guidance to the specific case of floods.
Book Synopsis Public-Private Partnerships, Government Guarantees, and Fiscal Risk by : Mr.Barry Anderson
Download or read book Public-Private Partnerships, Government Guarantees, and Fiscal Risk written by Mr.Barry Anderson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-04-28 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Public-private partnerships (PPPs) refer to arrangements under which the private sector supplies infrastructure assets and infrastructure-based services that traditionally have been provided by the government. PPPs are used for a wide range of economic and social infrastructure projects, but they are used mainly to build and operate roads, bridges and tunnels, light rail networks, airports and air traffic control systems, prisons, water and sanitation plants, hospitals, schools, and public buildings. PPPs offer benefits similar to those offered by privatization, which is the sale of government-owned enterprises or assets. By the late 1990s, when privatization was losing much of its earlier momentum, PPPs began to be widely seen as a means of obtaining private sector capital and management expertise for infrastructure investment. After a modest start, a wave of PPPs is now beginning to sweep the world. This Special Issue paper provides an overview of some of the issues raised by PPPs, with a particular focus on their fiscal consequences. It also looks at government guarantees, which are used fairly widely to shield the private sector from risk and are a common feature of PPPs. And it examines the consequences of PPPs and guarantees for debt sustainability. The paper concludes with a list of measures that can maximize the benefits and minimize the fiscal risks associated with the use of PPPs. Various appendices augment the discussion by examining country experiences with PPPs, summarizing the statistical reporting framework used to discuss fiscal accounting and reporting, explaining accounting for risk transfer, examining how guarantees are modeled and estimated in Chile, and summarizing international accounting and reporting standards for contingent liabilities.
Book Synopsis Mastering the Risky Business of Public-Private Partnerships in Infrastructure by : Manal Fouad
Download or read book Mastering the Risky Business of Public-Private Partnerships in Infrastructure written by Manal Fouad and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-05-10 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Investment in infrastructure can be a driving force of the economic recovery in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of shrinking fiscal space. Public-private partnerships (PPP) bring a promise of efficiency when carefully designed and managed, to avoid creating unnecessary fiscal risks. But fiscal illusions prevent an understanding the sources of fiscal risks, which arise in all infrastructure projects, and that in PPPs present specific characteristics that need to be addressed. PPP contracts are also affected by implicit fiscal risks when they are poorly designed, particularly when a government signs a PPP contract for a project with no financial sustainability. This paper reviews the advantages and inconveniences of PPPs, discusses the fiscal illusions affecting them, identifies a diversity of fiscal risks, and presents the essentials of PPP fiscal risk management.
Book Synopsis Public-Private Partnerships in the Caribbean Region by : Mr.Maximilien Queyranne
Download or read book Public-Private Partnerships in the Caribbean Region written by Mr.Maximilien Queyranne and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-05-08 with total page 103 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To provide policymakers in the Caribbean with a governance framework for improving infrastructure through Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs), while limiting their fiscal costs and risks for the government. And to showcase Canada support to FAD technical assistance in the region and FAD collaboration with CARTAC and the Caribbean Development Bank
Download or read book Leveraged written by Moritz Schularick and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2022-12-13 with total page 318 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An authoritative guide to the new economics of our crisis-filled century. Published in collaboration with the Institute for New Economic Thinking. The 2008 financial crisis was a seismic event that laid bare how financial institutions’ instabilities can have devastating effects on societies and economies. COVID-19 brought similar financial devastation at the beginning of 2020 and once more massive interventions by central banks were needed to heed off the collapse of the financial system. All of which begs the question: why is our financial system so fragile and vulnerable that it needs government support so often? For a generation of economists who have risen to prominence since 2008, these events have defined not only how they view financial instability, but financial markets more broadly. Leveraged brings together these voices to take stock of what we have learned about the costs and causes of financial fragility and to offer a new canonical framework for understanding it. Their message: the origins of financial instability in modern economies run deeper than the technical debates around banking regulation, countercyclical capital buffers, or living wills for financial institutions. Leveraged offers a fundamentally new picture of how financial institutions and societies coexist, for better or worse. The essays here mark a new starting point for research in financial economics. As we muddle through the effects of a second financial crisis in this young century, Leveraged provides a road map and a research agenda for the future.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Transparency Handbook (2018) by : International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Download or read book Fiscal Transparency Handbook (2018) written by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-04-16 with total page 182 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The IMF’s Fiscal Transparency Code is the international standard for disclosure of information about public finances and is the centerpiece of the global architecture on fiscal transparency. The Fiscal Transparency Handbook (2018) provides detailed guidance on the implementation of the new Fiscal Transparency Code, which was approved by the IMF Board in 2014. It explains why each principle of the Code is important and describes current trends in implementation of the principles, noting relevant international standards as well. Selected country examples are also provided.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Risk Sharing in China: Is It Significant and How to Further Improve It? by : Mr. Fei Han
Download or read book Fiscal Risk Sharing in China: Is It Significant and How to Further Improve It? written by Mr. Fei Han and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-09-20 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The COVID-19 pandemic has weakened the fiscal positions of local governments in China, while the recent stress in the Chinese property market has further compounded this issue, calling for stronger fiscal risk sharing among provinces. This paper examines the existing central to local governmental transfer system and its effect on interprovincial risk sharing and redistribution in China. We show that the fiscal transfers have played an important role in risk sharing although their main purpose is still redistribution. We also propose an alternative transfer mechanism with the size of transfers to each province linked to the shocks that the province is facing to enhance the fiscal risk-sharing effect. Using counterfactual simulations, we show that such an alternative mechanism can significantly enhance risk sharing among all provinces against idiosyncratic shocks while maintaining a comparable level of redistribution effect. Intergovernmental reforms and other structural measures could also be considered to further improve policy efficiency and effectiveness.
