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Fiscal Multipliers In The Eccu
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Book Synopsis Fiscal Multipliers in the ECCU by : Mr.Jesus Gonzalez-Garcia
Download or read book Fiscal Multipliers in the ECCU written by Mr.Jesus Gonzalez-Garcia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-05-22 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The multipliers of taxes, and government consumption and investment expenditure for the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) are estimated using vector autoregression models with panel data. The impact and long-run multipliers are below unity, suggesting that a great extent of the intended impulse ends up expanding imported demand. The long-run multipliers of taxes and consumption expenditure are non-different from zero statistically, while public investment has a long-run multiplier of 0.6. The results suggest that countercyclical policies to stimulate growth should focus on public investment.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Multipliers by : Nicoletta Batini
Download or read book Fiscal Multipliers written by Nicoletta Batini and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-10-02 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fiscal multipliers are important tools for macroeconomic projections and policy design. In many countries, little is known about the size of multipliers, as data availability limits the scope for empirical research. This note provides general guidance on the definition, measurement, and use of fiscal multipliers. It reviews the literature related to their size, persistence and determinants. For countries where no reliable estimate is available, the note proposes a simple method to come up with reasonable values. Finally, the note presents options to incorporate multipliers in macroeconomic forecasts.
Book Synopsis Can Government Demand Stimulate Private Investment? Evidence from U.S. Federal Procurement by : Shafik Hebous
Download or read book Can Government Demand Stimulate Private Investment? Evidence from U.S. Federal Procurement written by Shafik Hebous and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-03-10 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the effects of federal purchases on firms’ investment using a novel panel dataset that combines federal procurement contracts in the United States with key financial firm-level information. We find that 1 dollar of federal spending increases firms’ capital investment by 7 to 11 cents. The average effect masks heterogeneity: Effects are stronger for firms that face financing constraints and they are close to 0 for unconstrained firms. In line with the financial accelerator model, our findings indicate that the effect of government purchases works through easing firms’ access to external borrowing. Furthermore, industry-level analysis suggests that that the increase in investment at the firm level translates into an industry-wide effect without crowding-out capital investment of other firms in the same industry.
Book Synopsis A Simple Method to Compute Fiscal Multipliers by : Nicoletta Batini
Download or read book A Simple Method to Compute Fiscal Multipliers written by Nicoletta Batini and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-06-09 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fiscal multipliers are important tools for macroeconomic projections and policy design. In many countries, little is known about the size of multipliers, as data availability limits the scope for empirical research. For these countries, we propose a simple method—dubbed the “bucket approach”—to come up with reasonable multiplier estimates. The approach bunches countries into groups (or “buckets”) with similar multiplier values, based on their characteristics. It also takes into account the effect of some temporary factors, such as the state of the business cycle.
Book Synopsis Estimating Fiscal Multipliers Under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes: The Case of Bolivia by : Tannous Kass-Hanna
Download or read book Estimating Fiscal Multipliers Under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes: The Case of Bolivia written by Tannous Kass-Hanna and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-11-17 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Empirical (employing the Blanchard-Perotti framework) and modeling (using a country-specific DSGE model) approaches are used to estimate fiscal multipliers by policy instrument for Bolivia, to evaluate possible adjustments in a fiscal consolidation strategy. Multipliers are also estimated using alternative assumptions about the accompanying exchange rate regime and capital mobility, highlighting the importance of the policy mix in determining the impact of fiscal adjustments. The study exploits the DSGE modeling structure to assess this interaction of fiscal and monetary policy in a lower middle-income country under different exchange rate regimes. It finds that expenditure multipliers fall into the range of 1/3 to 2/3, with public investment multipliers slightly higher than government consumption multipliers over longer horizons, and multipliers generally higher under a peg than inflation targeting. Tax multipliers are shown to be about half of expenditure multipliers.
Book Synopsis Is the Public Investment Multiplier Higher in Developing Countries? An Empirical Exploration by : Mr.Alejandro Izquierdo
Download or read book Is the Public Investment Multiplier Higher in Developing Countries? An Empirical Exploration written by Mr.Alejandro Izquierdo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-12-20 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the last decade, empirical studies analyzing macroeconomic conditions that may affect the size of government spending multipliers have flourished. Yet, in spite of their obvious public policy importance, little is known about public investment multipliers. In particular, the clear theoretical implication that public investment multipliers should be higher (lower) the lower (higher) is the initial stock of public capital has not, to the best of our knowledge, been tested. This paper tackles this empirical challenge and finds robust evidence in favor of the above hypothesis: countries with a low initial stock of public capital (as a proportion of GDP) have significantly higher public investment multipliers than countries with a high initial stock of public capital. This key finding seems robust to the sample (European countries, U.S. states, and Argentine provinces) and to the identification method (Blanchard-Perotti, forecast errors, and instrumental variables). Our results thus suggest that public investment in developing countries would carry high returns.
Book Synopsis Pooling Fiscal Risk in the ECCU: Quantifying Savings of a Regional Fund for Stabilization and Investment by : Mr. Alejandro D Guerson
Download or read book Pooling Fiscal Risk in the ECCU: Quantifying Savings of a Regional Fund for Stabilization and Investment written by Mr. Alejandro D Guerson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-07-16 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper quantifies the savings obtained from risk pooling with a Regional Stabilization Fund (RSF) for the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union. A Monte Carlo experiment is used to estimate the size of a RSF conditional on probabilities of depletion under specific saving-withdrawal rules. Results indicate that regional risk pooling requires about half of the saving amount relative to the sum of individual-country savings. In addition to reducing the amount of saving requirements for stabilization, the RSF can improve welfare by realocating government consumption savings during booms towards public investment during recessions, resulting in an increase of public investment in the range of 0.5-1.5 percent of GDP per year depending on the country, with positive growth dividends. Moreover, the RSF also reduces the dispersion of public debt outcomes in light of the cross-country cyclical synchronicity of output and revenue, thereby strengthening the stability of the regional currency board.
Book Synopsis The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Latin America by : Mr.Yan Carriere-Swallow
Download or read book The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Latin America written by Mr.Yan Carriere-Swallow and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-06-13 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We estimate the short-term effects of fiscal consolidation on economic activity in 14 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. We examine contemporaneous policy documents to identify changes in fiscal policy motivated by a desire to reduce the budget deficit and not by responding to prospective economic conditions. Based on this narrative dataset, our estimates suggest that fiscal consolidation has contractionary effects on GDP, consistent with a multiplier of 0.9. We find these effects to be close to those in OECD countries based on a similarly constructed dataset (Devries and others, 2011). We also find similar estimation results for the two groups of economies for the effect of fiscal consolidation on the external current account balance, providing support for the twin deficits hypothesis.
Book Synopsis The Direct Employment Impact of Public Investment by : Marian Moszoro
Download or read book The Direct Employment Impact of Public Investment written by Marian Moszoro and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-05-06 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We evaluate the direct employment effect of the public investment in key infrastructure—electricity, roads, schools and hospitals, and water and sanitation. Using rich firm-level panel data from 41 countries over 19 years, we estimate that US$1 million of public spending in infrastructure create 3–7 jobs in advanced economies, 10–17 jobs in emerging market economies, and 16–30 jobs in low-income developing countries. As a comparison, US$1 million public spending on R&D yields 5–11 jobs in R&D in OECD countries. Green investment and investment with a larger R&D component deliver higher employment effect. Overall, we estimate that one percent of global GDP in public investment can create more than seven million jobs worldwide through its direct employment effects alone.
Book Synopsis Grenada by : International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
Download or read book Grenada written by International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-01-28 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses Ex Post Assessment of Longer-Term Program Engagement on Grenada. Grenada’s engagement with the IMF played an important role in supporting the small island economy after it was buffeted by major adverse shocks. IMF support catalyzed substantial donor aid in the wake of unprecedented damage from two hurricanes and provided additional resources when the global crisis hit. Key reforms were also advanced, including the implementation of a value-added tax and strengthening of the nonbank regulatory framework. Executive Directors have agreed that a new program should support urgently needed fiscal consolidation, promote faster and more inclusive growth, and focus on a few macro-critical reforms.
Book Synopsis The Eastern Caribbean Economic and Currency Union by : Mr.Alfred Schipke
Download or read book The Eastern Caribbean Economic and Currency Union written by Mr.Alfred Schipke and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-04-10 with total page 546 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Eastern Caribbean Economic and Currency Union (OECS/ECCU) is one of four currency unions in the world. As in other parts of the world in the aftermath of the global economic and financial crisis, the region is at a crossroads, facing the major challenges of creating jobs, making growth more inclusive, reforming the banking system, and managing volatility, while grappling with high public debt and persistent low economic growth. Policymakers have the critical task of implementing strong reforms to strengthen the monetary union while also laying the foundation for accelerating growth. This Handbook provides a comprehensive analysis of the key issues in the OECS/ECCU, including its organization and economic and financial sector linkages, and provides policy recommendations to foster economic growth.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1484362624 Total Pages :86 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (843 download)
Book Synopsis St. Lucia by : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Download or read book St. Lucia written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-06-20 with total page 86 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that the GDP growth in St. Lucia reached 3 percent in 2017, sustained by robust activity in several sectors. Favorable external conditions, coupled with hotel expansions and the addition of new flights, generated a strong recovery in tourism, with stay-over arrivals rising by 11 percent, the fastest growth in the Caribbean. Backed by strong tourism inflows, the current account balance strengthened. Unemployment declined from 21.3 percent in 2016 to 20.2 percent in 2017, but youth unemployment remains high at 38.5 percent and labor force participation has fallen. The short-term outlook is favorable, but prospects beyond that are sobering. GDP growth is expected to remain buoyant in the near term.
Book Synopsis Financial Conditions and Growth at Risk in the ECCU by : Mr.Takuji Komatsuzaki
Download or read book Financial Conditions and Growth at Risk in the ECCU written by Mr.Takuji Komatsuzaki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-11-15 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the growth determinants in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU), using the Growth at Risk (GaR) framework with a focus on financial variables. We find that excessive bank credit growth is associated with lower future real GDP growth in the medium term especially on the low quantiles of growth distribution. Moreover, worsening of both global financial conditions and external conditions are associated with lower future growth in the short term, especially at the high quantiles of growth distribution. Country-specific results are broadly in line with ECCU-wide results, with some variation potentially due to the strong Citizenship-By-Investment program inflows and lack of credit union data. The establishment of a macroprudential framework in the ECCU would need to pay close attention to credit growth not only of banks but also credit unions and continue to monitor global and external conditions.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Policy Multipliers in Small States by : Ali Alichi
Download or read book Fiscal Policy Multipliers in Small States written by Ali Alichi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-03-26 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Government debt in many small states has risen beyond sustainable levels and some governments are considering fiscal consolidation. This paper estimates fiscal policy multipliers for small states using two distinct models: an empirical forecast error model with data from 23 small states across the world; and a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model calibrated to a hypothetical small state’s economy. The results suggest that fiscal policy using government current primary spending is ineffective, but using government investment is very potent in small states in affecting the level of their GDP over the medium term. These results are robust to different model specifications and characteristics of small states. Inability to affect GDP using current primary spending could be frustrating for policymakers when an expansionary policy is needed, but encouraging at the current juncture when many governments are considering fiscal consolidation. For the short term, however, multipliers for government current primary spending are larger and affected by imports as share of GDP, level of government debt, and position of the economy in the business cycle, among other factors.
Book Synopsis Asia and Pacific Small States Monitor, August 2014 by : Ms.Shari Boyce
Download or read book Asia and Pacific Small States Monitor, August 2014 written by Ms.Shari Boyce and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-08-01 with total page 14 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This issue of the Asia & Pacific Small States Monitor focuses on the challenges facing Asia and Pacific small states associated with natural disasters and climate change. Most tourism-oriented economies experienced a robust increase in arrivals, partly reflecting country-specific factors. Among commodity exporters (Bhutan, Solomon Islands, and Timor-Leste) and other Asia and Pacific small states, growth remains uneven: robust activity in Bhutan was driven mainly by hydropower-related construction activities; Solomon Islands experienced a continuing decline of logging stocks and a short-term disruption of gold production; and Timor-Leste’s ongoing depletion of oil reserves has led to a tighter budget constraint and lower government spending in the non-oil sector.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1513530585 Total Pages :54 pages Book Rating :4.5/5 (135 download)
Book Synopsis St. Kitts and Nevis by : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Download or read book St. Kitts and Nevis written by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-10-29 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses St. Kitts and Nevis’ Ex Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access Under the 2011 Stand-by Arrangement. The program focused on (1) an ambitious fiscal consolidation, (2) a comprehensive debt restructuring, and (3) a further strengthening of the financial sector. These goals aimed to address the key issues behind the debt crisis, and the potential financial sector outcomes of the restructuring. The program had many successes. The debt reduction was one of the largest in recent times, the headline fiscal and current account balances improved substantially, important tax and public financial management reforms were enacted, and sovereign risk was removed from the banks. Robust growth also resumed.
Book Synopsis How Big (Small?) are Fiscal Multipliers? by : Ethan Ilzetzki
Download or read book How Big (Small?) are Fiscal Multipliers? written by Ethan Ilzetzki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-03-01 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We contribute to the intense debate on the real effects of fiscal stimuli by showing that the impact of government expenditure shocks depends crucially on key country characteristics, such as the level of development, exchange rate regime, openness to trade, and public indebtedness. Based on a novel quarterly dataset of government expenditure in 44 countries, we find that (i) the output effect of an increase in government consumption is larger in industrial than in developing countries, (ii) the fisscal multiplier is relatively large in economies operating under predetermined exchange rate but zero in economies operating under flexible exchange rates; (iii) fiscal multipliers in open economies are lower than in closed economies and (iv) fiscal multipliers in high-debt countries are also zero.
