Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt, and Sovereign Bond Yields

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1455202185
Total Pages : 30 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (552 download)

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Book Synopsis Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt, and Sovereign Bond Yields by : Mr.Manmohan S. Kumar

Download or read book Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt, and Sovereign Bond Yields written by Mr.Manmohan S. Kumar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-08-01 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent sharp increase in fiscal deficits and government debt in many countries raises questions regarding their impact on long-term sovereign bond yields. While economic theory suggests that this impact is likely to be adverse, empirical results have been less clear cut, have generally ignored nonlinear effects of deficits and debt through some other key determinants of yields, and have been mostly confined to advanced economies. This paper reexamines the impact of fiscal deficits and public debt on long-term interest rates during 1980 - 2008, taking into account a wide range of country-specific factors, for a panel of 31 advanced and emerging market economies. It finds that higher deficits and public debt lead to a significant increase in long-term interest rates, with the precise magnitude dependent on initial fiscal, institutional and other structural conditions, as well as spillovers from global financial markets. Taking into account these factors suggests that large fiscal deficits and public debts are likely to put substantial upward pressures on sovereign bond yields in many advanced economies over the medium term.

The Outlook for Financing Japan's Public Debt

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451962266
Total Pages : 26 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (519 download)

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Book Synopsis The Outlook for Financing Japan's Public Debt by : Kiichi Tokuoka

Download or read book The Outlook for Financing Japan's Public Debt written by Kiichi Tokuoka and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-01-01 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite the rapid rise in public debt and large fiscal deficits, Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields have remained fairly stable. Possible factors include: Japan's sizeable pool of household savings, presence of large and stable institutional investors, and strong home bias. These factors are likely to persist for some time, but going forward, the market's capacity to absorb debt is likely to diminish, as population aging reduces savings inflows and financial reforms enhance risk appetite. This could in turn strengthen the link between JGB yields and the stock of public debt. In light of these structural changes in the market, fiscal consolidation will be key for maintaining market stability.

Long-Run and Short-Run Determinants of Sovereign Bond Yields in Advanced Economies

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475529147
Total Pages : 26 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Long-Run and Short-Run Determinants of Sovereign Bond Yields in Advanced Economies by : Mr.Tigran Poghosyan

Download or read book Long-Run and Short-Run Determinants of Sovereign Bond Yields in Advanced Economies written by Mr.Tigran Poghosyan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-11-08 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze determinants of sovereign bond yields in 22 advanced economies over the 1980-2010 period using panel cointegration techniques. The application of cointegration methodology allows distinguishing between long-run (debt-to-GDP ratio, potential growth) and short-run (inflation, short-term interest rates, etc.) determinants of sovereign borrowing costs. We find that in the long-run, government bond yields increase by about 2 basis points in response to a 1 percentage point increase in government debt-to-GDP ratio and by about 45 basis points in response to a 1 percentage point increase in potential growth rate. In the short-run, sovereign bond yields deviate from the level determined by the long-run fundamentals, but about half of the deviation adjusts in one year. When considering the impact of the global financial crisis on sovereign borrowing costs in euro area countries, the estimations suggest that spreads against Germany in some European periphery countries exceeded the level determined by fundamentals in the aftermath of the crisis, while some North European countries have benefited from “safe haven” flows.

Bond Yields in Emerging Economies

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475505485
Total Pages : 25 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Bond Yields in Emerging Economies by : Laura Jaramillo

Download or read book Bond Yields in Emerging Economies written by Laura Jaramillo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-01 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While many studies have looked into the determinants of yields on externally issued sovereign bonds of emerging economies, analysis of domestically issued bonds has hitherto been limited, despite their growing relevance. This paper finds that the extent to which fiscal variables affect domestic bond yields in emerging economies depends on the level of global risk aversion. During tranquil times in global markets, fiscal variables do not seem to be a significant determinant of domestic bond yields in emerging economies. However, when market participants are on edge, they pay greater attention to country-specific fiscal fundamentals, revealing greater alertness about default risk.

Public Debt, North and South

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Author :
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 40 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Public Debt, North and South by : Helmut Reisen

Download or read book Public Debt, North and South written by Helmut Reisen and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1989 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why has government debt risen since 1984 despite rationed foreign lending and efforts at fiscal consolidation? And how can the rising debt be stopped? Possible remedies are growth -oriented fiscal adjustment, improved debt management, and voluntary debt reduction.

The Political Economy of Public Debt

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Author :
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1785363387
Total Pages : 337 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (853 download)

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Book Synopsis The Political Economy of Public Debt by : Richard M. Salsman

Download or read book The Political Economy of Public Debt written by Richard M. Salsman and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2017-02-24 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How have the most influential political economists of the past three centuries theorized about sovereign borrowing and shaped its now widespread use? That important question receives a comprehensive answer in this original work, featuring careful textual analysis and illuminating exhibits of public debt empirics since 1700. Beyond its value as a definitive, authoritative history of thought on public debt, this book rehabilitates and reintroduces a realist perspective into a contemporary debate now heavily dominated by pessimists and optimists alike.

Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 48 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service by : Silvia Ardagna

Download or read book Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service written by Silvia Ardagna and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We use a panel of 16 OECD countries over several decades to investigate the effects of government debts and deficits on long-term interest rates. In simple static specifications, a one-percentage-point increase in the primary deficit relative to GDP increases contemporaneous long-term interest rates by about 10 basis points. In a vector autoregression (VAR), the same shock leads to a cumulative increase of almost 150 basis points after 10 years. The effect of debt on interest rates is non-linear: only for countries with above-average levels of debt does an increase in debt affect the interest rate. World fiscal policy is also important: an increase in total OECD-government borrowing increases each country's interest rates. However, domestic fiscal policy continues to affect domestic interest rates even after controlling for worldwide debts and deficits.

Determinants of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1455252859
Total Pages : 28 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (552 download)

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Book Synopsis Determinants of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads by : Iva Petrova

Download or read book Determinants of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads written by Iva Petrova and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-12-01 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyses the determimants of emerging market sovereign bond spreads by examining the short and long-run effects of fundamental (macroeconomic) and temporary (financial market) factors on these spreads. During the current global financial and economic crisis, sovereign bond spreads widened dramatically for both developed and emerging market economies. This deterioration has widely been attributed to rapidly growing public debts and balance sheet risks. Our results indicate that in the long run, fundamentals are significant determinants of emerging market sovereign bond spreads, while in the short run, financial volatility is a more important determinant of sperads than fundamentals indicators.

Measurement of Fiscal Impact

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 9781557750167
Total Pages : 84 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (51 download)

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Book Synopsis Measurement of Fiscal Impact by : International Monetary Fund

Download or read book Measurement of Fiscal Impact written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1988-06-16 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper describes methodological issues pertaining to measurement of fiscal impact. The fiscal deficit is, under any circumstances, a crude tool for assessing the impact of fiscal policy on the economy. This paper also analyzes various ways in which the conventional definition of the fiscal deficit is affected by high rates of inflation. It has shown that, as the rate of inflation rises, the picture emerging from the conventional measure may, under certain circumstances, become somewhat blurred since the conventional measure may magnify the size of the fiscal adjustment that a country need. In fact, the size of the debt service that compensates bondholders for the reduction in the real value of their assets arising from inflation should be made explicit so as to indicate that part of the deficit whose impact depends mainly on portfolio decisions regarding the public's demand for government bonds, and on the potential effects of these bonds on the monetary and liquidity conditions of the economy.

International Bond Markets (Routledge Revivals)

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Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1135009406
Total Pages : 185 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (35 download)

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Book Synopsis International Bond Markets (Routledge Revivals) by : David H. Gowland

Download or read book International Bond Markets (Routledge Revivals) written by David H. Gowland and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-10-08 with total page 185 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: First published in 1990, International Bond Markets analyses how the markets in public-sector debt have developed and how they operate in a number of countries, including those with chronic budget deficits. Alongside a detailed introduction to government borrowing, chapters consider the bond markets and debt management systems of the U.S.A., Japan, France, Italy and the U.K. With governments around the world struggling to manage their huge deficits, this is a particularly relevant title to students observing the current global economic situation, and those with a general interest in public debt management and bond markets.

Government Bonds and their Investors

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475504519
Total Pages : 30 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Government Bonds and their Investors by : Mr.Jochen R. Andritzky

Download or read book Government Bonds and their Investors written by Mr.Jochen R. Andritzky and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-06-01 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper introduces a new dataset on the composition of the investor base for government securities in the G20 advanced economies and the euro area. During the last decades, investors from abroad have increased their presence in government bond markets. The financial crisis broke this trend. Domestic financial institutions allocated a larger share of government securities in their portfolios, as Japan has done since its crisis in the 1990s. Increases in the share held by institutional investors or non-residents by 10 percentage points are associated with a reduction in yields by about 25 or 40 basis points, respectively. The data show a varied lead-lag relationship between bond yields and investor holdings. Portfolio balance estimates suggest that a change in statutory or regulatory holdings of government securities to the tune of 10 percent of the outstanding stock causes expected returns to decline by 7 to 25 basis points.

Management of the Public Debt

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 42 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Management of the Public Debt by : United States. Congress. House. Committee on Ways and Means

Download or read book Management of the Public Debt written by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Ways and Means and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Public Debt in a Democratic Society

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Publisher : Washington, D.C. : American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 88 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Public Debt in a Democratic Society by : James M. Buchanan

Download or read book Public Debt in a Democratic Society written by James M. Buchanan and published by Washington, D.C. : American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research. This book was released on 1967 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Public Debt Problem

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Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 1137313021
Total Pages : 216 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (373 download)

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Book Synopsis The Public Debt Problem by : P. Lemieux

Download or read book The Public Debt Problem written by P. Lemieux and published by Springer. This book was released on 2013-01-06 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The European public debt problem was in the making long before the 2007-2009 recession, as budget deficits had become endemic. A similar crisis is now developing in America, where the same fundamental causes have been at work. The Public Debt Problem analyzes the situation of public debts in America and reviews official forecasts for the federal government. The author carefully explains the main concepts (budget deficit, public debt, etc.) and analytical tools (discounting, government accounting, Treasury securities, bonds, yields, etc.) necessary to understand the issues.

The Debt Burden and Its Consequences for Monetary Policy

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Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 1349260770
Total Pages : 307 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (492 download)

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Book Synopsis The Debt Burden and Its Consequences for Monetary Policy by : Guillermo Calvo

Download or read book The Debt Burden and Its Consequences for Monetary Policy written by Guillermo Calvo and published by Springer. This book was released on 1998-02-12 with total page 307 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In all countries debt and deficits of the public sector are at the heart of economic policy debate. Debt and deficits pose major problems, all the more pressing in Europe because of the Maastricht criteria for entry into European Monetary Union. And in the developing world debt has been associated with major financial crises. This volume, arising from an International Economic Association conference at the Bundesbank, sees academics and policy makers debate the key issues and their implications in theory and practice.

The Economic Consequences of Government Deficits

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9400966849
Total Pages : 243 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (9 download)

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Book Synopsis The Economic Consequences of Government Deficits by : L.H. Meyer

Download or read book The Economic Consequences of Government Deficits written by L.H. Meyer and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 243 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: On October 29 and 30, 1982, the Center for the Study of American Business and the Institute for Banking and Financial Markets at Washington "The Economic Consequences of University cosponsored a conference on Government Deficits. " This was the sixth annual Economic Policy Con ference sponsored by the Center, and the first it has cosponsored with the Institute. This book contains the papers and comments delivered at that conference. Recent and prospective large federal deficits have prompted a thorough reconsideration of the political sources and economic consequences of government deficits. The papers in Part I focus on the implications of deficits for monetary growth and inflation, and the papers in Part II consider the effect of deficits on interest rates and capital formation. The papers in Part III deal with the political sources and remedies for the explosive growth in government spending and increased reliance on deficits. The papers in Part I by Alan S. Blinder, Professor of Economics at Princeton University, and Preston J. Miller, Assistant Vice President and Research Advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, discuss the relation between monetary growth and deficits and present evidence on the of deficits on inflation and output. A deficit is said to be monetized effects vii viii THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF GOVERNMENT DEFICITS when the Federal Reserve purchases bonds to aid the Treasury in financing the deficit.

Government Deficit and Fiscal Reform in Japan

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1475735286
Total Pages : 172 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (757 download)

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Book Synopsis Government Deficit and Fiscal Reform in Japan by : Toshihiro Ihori

Download or read book Government Deficit and Fiscal Reform in Japan written by Toshihiro Ihori and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 172 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Government Deficit And Fiscal Reform In Japan presents a theoretical-based comprehensive analysis of economic consequences of government deficits and fiscal reform in Japan. Particular emphasis is directed at developing tools that can be applied to theoretically and empirically clarify essential economic concerns in Japan such as generational incidence of fiscal reform and a growing dependence on government bonds for covering financial deficits. This book evaluates the recent movement of Japanese fiscal reform and government deficit. The authors first summarize fiscal policy in 1990's. Then, they move on to investigate the macroeconomic impact of government dept and the sustainability problem, and then discuss benefits and costs of public investment. The political aspect of fiscal reconstruction movements in Japan is also examined. Finally, the authors investigate the behavior of central government's control on local governments' debt issuance and its effect on the real activities of local governments. This book points out that the long-run structural fiscal reform is more important than the short-run Keynesian fiscal policy in Japan.