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Fiscal Consolidation And Public Debt
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Book Synopsis The Economic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation with Debt Feedback by : Mr.Marcello M. Estevão
Download or read book The Economic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation with Debt Feedback written by Mr.Marcello M. Estevão and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-05-31 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The past several years of recession and slow recovery have raised much interest on the effect of fiscal stimulus on economic activity, even as high public debts in many countries would call for fiscal consolidation. To evaluate the delicate balance between stimulus and consolidation requires measuring the size of fiscal multipliers, which often depends on having quarterly data so that exogenous fiscal policy shocks can be identified. We estimate fiscal multipliers using a novel methodology for identifying fiscal shocks within a structural vector autoregressive approach using annual data while controling for debt feedback effects. The estimation focuses on regions with scarce quarterly data (mostly low-income countries), and uses results for advanced economies, emerging market countries, and other broad groupings for which alternative estimates are available to validate the methodology. Differently from advanced and emerging market economies, fiscal consolidation in low-income countries has only a small temporary negative effect on growth while raising medium-term output. Shifting the composition of public spending toward capital expenditure further supports long-run growth.
Book Synopsis Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Debt Crisis and Management by : Mr.Cristiano Cantore
Download or read book Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Debt Crisis and Management written by Mr.Cristiano Cantore and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-03-30 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The initial government debt-to-GDP ratio and the government’s commitment play a pivotal role in determining the welfare-optimal speed of fiscal consolidation in the management of a debt crisis. Under commitment, for low or moderate initial government debt-to-GPD ratios, the optimal consolidation is very slow. A faster pace is optimal when the economy starts from a high level of public debt implying high sovereign risk premia, unless these are suppressed via a bailout by official creditors. Under discretion, the cost of not being able to commit is reflected into a quick consolidation of government debt. Simple monetary-fiscal rules with passive fiscal policy, designed for an environment with “normal shocks”, perform reasonably well in mimicking the Ramsey-optimal response to one-off government debt shocks. When the government can issue also long-term bonds–under commitment–the optimal debt consolidation pace is slower than in the case of short-term bonds only, and entails an increase in the ratio between long and short-term bonds.
Book Synopsis Strategies for Fiscal Consolidation in the Post-Crisis World by : Mr.Mauricio Villafuerte
Download or read book Strategies for Fiscal Consolidation in the Post-Crisis World written by Mr.Mauricio Villafuerte and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-09-17 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In response to the global financial crisis, governments provided substantial support to the financial and other key sectors. Although this cushioned the adverse effects of the crisis, it is necessary now to articulate a strategy to ensure the sustainability of public finances. This paper discusses the scale and composition of fiscal adjustment that will need to occur once the recovery is securely under way. Although specific country-level circumstances will influence the composition of the adjustment and its political feasibility, in many cases restoring fiscal sustainability will require reforms to reduce spending and increase tax revenue.
Book Synopsis Budget Deficits and the Public Debt in Sweden by : Desmond Lachman
Download or read book Budget Deficits and the Public Debt in Sweden written by Desmond Lachman and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Challenge of Debt Reduction during Fiscal Consolidation by : Luc Eyraud
Download or read book The Challenge of Debt Reduction during Fiscal Consolidation written by Luc Eyraud and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-03-08 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Studies suggest that fiscal multipliers are currently high in many advanced economies. One important implication is that fiscal tightening could raise the debt ratio in the short term, as fiscal gains are partly wiped out by the decline in output. Although this effect is not long-lasting and debt eventually declines, it could be an issue if financial markets focus on the short-term behavior of the debt ratio, or if country authorities engage in repeated rounds of tightening in an effort to get the debt ratio to converge to the official target. We discuss whether these problems could be addressed by setting and monitoring debt targets in cyclically-adjusted terms.
Book Synopsis The Challenges of Fiscal Consolidation and Debt Reduction in the Caribbean by : Charles Amo Yartey
Download or read book The Challenges of Fiscal Consolidation and Debt Reduction in the Caribbean written by Charles Amo Yartey and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-07-08 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines debt dynamics in the Caribbean and discusses policy options for reducing the high debt levels. Based on empirical studies of factors underlying global large debt reduction episodes, important policy lessons are drawn for the Caribbean. The analysis shows that major debt reductions are associated with strong growth and decisive and lasting fiscal consolidation efforts. Since growth in the current environment is virtually nonexistent, significant fiscal consolidation is inevitable in the region. Better control of the public wage bill, increasing public sector efficiency and tackling transfers are the obvious targets to reduce spending. On the revenue side, there is ample room to reduce tax expenditures, eliminate distortions while broadening the tax base. Fiscal consolidation needs to be complemented by a comprehensive debt reduction strategy including tax policy reforms and structural reforms to boost competiveness.
Book Synopsis Debt Reduction, Fiscal Adjustment, and Growth in Credit-Constrained Economies by : Mr.Emanuele Baldacci
Download or read book Debt Reduction, Fiscal Adjustment, and Growth in Credit-Constrained Economies written by Mr.Emanuele Baldacci and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-11-22 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses the effects of fiscal consolidations associated with public debt reduction on medium-term output growth during periods of private debt deleveraging. The analysis covers 107 countries and 79 episodes of public debt reduction driven by discretionary fiscal adjustments during 1980–2012. It shows that expenditure-based, front-loaded fiscal adjustments can dampen growth when there are credit supply restrictions. Instead, fiscal adjustments that are gradual and rely on a mix of revenue and expenditure measures can support output expansion, while reducing public debt. In this context, protecting public investment is critical for medium-term growth, as is the implementation of supply-side, productivity-enhancing reforms.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Consolidation and the Cost of Credit by : Ms.Senay Agca
Download or read book Fiscal Consolidation and the Cost of Credit written by Ms.Senay Agca and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-02-01 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine how the cost of corporate credit varies around fiscal consolidations aimed at reducing government debt. Using a new dataset on fiscal consolidations and syndicated corporate loan data, we find that loan spreads increase with fiscal consolidations, especially for small firms, domestic firms, and for firms with limited alternative financing sources. These adverse effects are mitigated substantially if consolidations are large, and can be avoided if consolidations are also accompanied with more adaptable macroeconomic policies and implemented by a stable government. These findings suggest that lenders price the short-term recessionary effects in loans but large consolidations can reduce or undo the increase in spreads, especially under favorable country conditions, by signaling credibility and creating expansionary expectations.
Book Synopsis An Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Adjustments by : Mr.C. John McDermott
Download or read book An Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Adjustments written by Mr.C. John McDermott and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1996-06-01 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study uses the fiscal expansion and consolidation experiences of the industrial countries over the period 1970 to 1995 to examine the interplay between fiscal adjustments and economic performance. A key finding is that fiscal consolidation need not trigger an economic slowdown. Fiscal consolidation that concentrates on the expenditure side, and especially on transfers and government wages, is more likely to succeed in reducing the public debt ratio than tax-based consolidation. Also, the greater the magnitude of the fiscal consolidation, the more likely it is to succeed in reducing the debt ratio.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Consolidation and Public Wages by : Juin-Jen Chang
Download or read book Fiscal Consolidation and Public Wages written by Juin-Jen Chang and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-06-10 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A New Keynesian model with government production, public compensation, and unemployment is fit to U.S. data to study the macroeconomic and fiscal effects of public wage reductions. We find that accounting for the type of government spending is crucial for its macroeconomic implications. Although reductions in public wages and government purchases of goods have similar effects on total output and the fiscal balance, the former can raise private output slightly, in contrast to the substantial contractionary effects of the latter. In addition, the baseline estimation finds that exogenous public wage reductions decrease private wages. Model counterfactuals show that sufficiently rigid nominal private wages can reverse the response of private wages, as the rigidity dampens the labor reallocation effect from the public to private sector that exerts downward pressure on private wages.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Consolidation and Public Debt by : Sakai Ando
Download or read book Fiscal Consolidation and Public Debt written by Sakai Ando and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: High public debt is urging policy makers to consider strategies to rebuild buffers and preserve debt sustainability. Using a large sample of advanced and emerging countries, we focus on fiscal consolidation, and evaluate whether -- and under which conditions -- fiscal consolidation is likely to be associated with a durable reduction in public debt to GDP ratios. Our findings indicate that, on average, fiscal consolidation has a minimal impact on debt ratios. However, consolidations implemented during economic upturns and in environments with high potential for crowding out effects are more likely to be associated with sustained reductions in debt ratios.
Book Synopsis The Composition of Fiscal Consolidation Matters by : Mr.Alejandro D. Guerson
Download or read book The Composition of Fiscal Consolidation Matters written by Mr.Alejandro D. Guerson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-10-04 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper evaluates policy alternatives to achieve permanent fiscal consolidation in Hungary, based on a general equilibrium calibration. The main finding is that the composition of the consolidation, as determined by the mix of revenue and expenditure measures, has important implications for growth, employment, investment, and other key macroeconomic variables. A reduction in current expenditures yields the smallest GDP contraction in the short term and can increase output in the long term by stimulating labor participation and private investment. On the other end of the spectrum, a consolidation of government investment and corporate taxes are the most costly, as disincentives for private investment result in protracted declines in GDP that compound over time to GDP losses that are multiple times the initial size of the consolidation.
Book Synopsis Walking Hand in Hand by : Mr.Carlo Cottarelli
Download or read book Walking Hand in Hand written by Mr.Carlo Cottarelli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-05-01 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Implementation of fiscal consolidation by advanced economies in coming years needs to take into account the short and long-run interactions between economic growth and fiscal policy. Many countries must reduce high public debt to GDP ratios that penalize longterm growth. However, fiscal adjustment is likely to hurt growth in the short run, delaying improvements in fiscal indicators, including deficits, debt, and financing costs. Revenue and expenditure policies are also critical in affecting productivity and employment growth. This paper discusses the complex relationships between fiscal policy and growth both in the short and in the long run.
Author :Galina Kolev Publisher :Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies ISBN 13 :2930632291 Total Pages :108 pages Book Rating :4.9/5 (36 download)
Book Synopsis Smart Fiscal Consolidation by : Galina Kolev
Download or read book Smart Fiscal Consolidation written by Galina Kolev and published by Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies. This book was released on 2013-05-10 with total page 108 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: PDF downloadable for free from http://martenscentre.eu/publications/smart-fiscal-consolidation-strategy-achieving-sustainable-public-finances-and-growth Due to high government debt levels and the dangers of self-defeating austerity, smart fiscal consolidation measures are needed that foster economic growth. A thorough review of the relevant literature provides many useful insights. To regain credibility, a clearly communicated broad reform program (including structural reforms) is required. Targeting mainly public expenditures, rather than revenues, raises the chances of expansionary effects. The timing of consolidation should focus on adjustment in structural terms to leave room for automatic stabilisers. The main part of the study evaluates the impact of individual consolidation and fiscal reform measures on consolidation success, on economic growth (in the long and short term), and on social fairness.
Book Synopsis Consolidation Policies in Federal States by : Dietmar Braun
Download or read book Consolidation Policies in Federal States written by Dietmar Braun and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2016-12-19 with total page 321 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Global Financial Crisis has led to a renewed attention for the management of public debt and deficits of advanced and developing industrial states. To successfully deal with such problems of public finances raises particular concerns in federal states where fiscal competencies are split between two levels of government. This book offers comparative in-depth knowledge of political struggles related to fiscal consolidation policies in eleven federal states since the 1990s, including the Global Financial Crisis and its aftermath. It identifies conditions that lead to "robust" solutions that can both commit federal actors to prudent fiscal policy-making and avoid conflicts between federal actors that cause federal instability. This text will be of key interest to scholars and students of political economy and comparative politics in general and comparative federalism and EU Politics in particular.
Book Synopsis Public Debts: Nuts, Bolts and Worries by :
Download or read book Public Debts: Nuts, Bolts and Worries written by and published by CEPR. This book was released on 2011 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The importance of fiscal discipline for developed countries has long been ignored or minimized, because they seem able to borrow and to keep borrowing for decades. The crisis has shown that discipline may be slow to assert itself, but has acutely painful consequences when it does. This 13th Geneva Report on the World Economy is devoted to fiscal policy reforms in the US, Europe and Japan. It offers a common political-economy framework to diagnose the need for fiscal consolidation and proposes institutional solutions rooted in that diagnosis. It includes a detailed analysis of how we got to the current situation, as well as a look at the very long run, when demographic factors already in place will sharpen an already degraded situation. The political-economy framework presents the common pool interpretation of the deficit bias, the widespread tendency of demographic governments to spend more than they can collect in taxes. It arises because those who benefit from public spending are not the same as those who pay taxes. The former ask for more spending, the latter ask for less taxation, and governments need to please voters to be (re)elected. The policy response must address these fundamental characteristics of advanced democracies by adopting institutions and rules that lessen the common pool problem. Because electoral systems differ widely from one country to another, leading to different forms of common pool effects, no single institutional arrangement is best suited everywhere. This report links political systems to forms of institutional arrangements. At this juncture, when the sovereign debt crisis is acute in the Euro-zone, menacing in the US and potentially festering in Japan, the report argues that fiscal stabilization is easier the faster the economy is growing. It also advances suggestions on how to make debts sustainable through growth-enhancing measures."--Page 4 of cover
Book Synopsis Assessing the Impact and Phasing of Multi-year Fiscal Adjustment by : Ran Bi
Download or read book Assessing the Impact and Phasing of Multi-year Fiscal Adjustment written by Ran Bi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-08-23 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides a general framework to assess the output and debt dynamics of an economy undertaking multi-year fiscal adjustment. The framework allows country-specific assumptions about the magnitude and persistence of fiscal multipliers, hysteresis effects, and endogenous financing costs. In addition to informing macro projections, the framework can also shed light on the appropriate phasing of fiscal consolidation—in particular, on whether it should be front- or back-loaded. The framework is applied to stylized advanced and emerging economy examples. It suggests that for a highly-indebted economy undertaking large multi-year fiscal consolidation, high multipliers do not always argue against frontloaded adjustment. The case for more gradual or back-loaded adjustment is strongest when hysteresis effects are in play, but it needs to be balanced against implications for debt sustainability. Application to actual country examples tends to cast doubt on claims that very large multipliers have been operating post-crisis. It seems that the GDP forecast errors for Greece may have been due more to over-optimism on potential growth estimates than to underestimating fiscal multipliers.
