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Author : Sanjay K. Chugh
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (931 download)
Download or read book Firm Risk and Leverage Based Business Cycles written by Sanjay K. Chugh and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Ms.Valerie Cerra
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513536990
Total Pages : 50 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)
Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Author : Tyler Cowen
Publisher : Taylor & Francis US
ISBN 13 : 9780415781299
Total Pages : 173 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (812 download)
Download or read book Risk and Business Cycles written by Tyler Cowen and published by Taylor & Francis US. This book was released on 2010 with total page 173 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk and Business Cycles examines the causes of business cycles, a perennial topic of interest within economics. The author argues the case for the revival of an important role for monetary causes in business cycle theory, which challenges the current trend towards favouring purely real theories. The work also presents a critique of the traditional Austrian theory of the trade cycle. This controversial approach will ensure that the book is of interest to all those involved with business cycles, as well as Austrian economics.
Author : Fischer Black
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470499176
Total Pages : 224 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (74 download)
Download or read book Business Cycles and Equilibrium written by Fischer Black and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2009-11-02 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An updated look at what Fischer Black's ideas on business cycles and equilibrium mean today Throughout his career, Fischer Black described a view of business fluctuations based on the idea that a well-developed economy will be continually in equilibrium. In the essays that constitute this book, which is one of only two books Black ever wrote, he explores this idea thoroughly and reaches some surprising conclusions. With the newfound popularity of quantitative finance and risk management, the work of Fischer Black has garnered much attention. Business Cycles and Equilibrium-with its theory that economic and financial markets are in a continual equilibrium-is one of his books that still rings true today, given the current economic crisis. This Updated Edition clearly presents Black's classic theory on business cycles and the concept of equilibrium, and contains a new introduction by the person who knows Black best: Perry Mehrling, author of Fischer Black and the Revolutionary Idea of Finance (Wiley). Mehrling goes inside Black's life to uncover what was occurring during the time Black wrote Business Cycles and Equilibrium, while also shedding light on what Black would make of today's financial and economic meltdown and how he would best advise to move forward. The essays within this book reach some interesting conclusions concerning the role of equilibrium in a developed economy Warns about the use and abuse of modeling Explains the risky business of risk in a straightforward and accessible style Contains chapters dedicated to "the effects of uncontrolled banking," "the trouble with econometric models," and "the effects of noise on investing" Includes commentary on Black's life and work at the time Business Cycles and Equilibrium was written as well as insight as to what Black would make of the current financial meltdown Engaging and informative, the Updated Edition of Business Cycles and Equilibrium will give you a better understanding of what is really going on during these uncertain and volatile financial times.
Author : Ronald W. Masulis
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 168 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (91 download)
Download or read book The Debt/equity Choice written by Ronald W. Masulis and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : R. Krainer
Publisher : JAI Press
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 364 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (321 download)
Download or read book Corporate Finance, Governance and Business Cycles written by R. Krainer and published by JAI Press. This book was released on 2003-01-15 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Corporate Finance, Governance, and Business Cycles describes a model of how a financial system coordinates and shapes certain stylised facts of business cycles. The model is based on a conflict of interest between more risk averse bondholders, and less risk averse stockholders whose risk aversion changes over time. The corporate governance resolution of this conflict assigns the operating decisions of the firm to stockholders and the financing decisions to bondholders. Financing decisions are then linked to operating decisions in a way that coalesces the welfare of bondholders and stockholders over the business cycle. Evidence from the nonfinancial business sector of the G-7 countries does not reject the predictions of the model.
Author : Rama Seth
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 42 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book Leverage and Cyclicality written by Rama Seth and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Iryna V. Ivaschenko
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 40 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book How Much Leverage is Too Much, Or Does Corporate Risk Determine the Severity of a Recession? written by Iryna V. Ivaschenko and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic theory suggests that vulnerable financial conditions of the corporate sector can trigger or worsen an economy-wide recession. This paper proposes a measure of corporate vulnerability, the Corporate Vulnerability Index (CVI) and analyses whether it can explain the probability and severity of recessions. The CVI is constructed as the default probability for the entire corporate sector, using the model of corporate debt by Anderson, Sundaresan, and Tychon (1996). The CVI is shown to be a significant predictor of the probability of a recession 4 to 6 quarters ahead, even controlling for other leading indicators. An increase in the CVI is also associated with an increase in the probability of a more severe and lengthy recession 3 to 6 quarters ahead.
Author : Philipp Immenkötter
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 44 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)
Download or read book Business Cycle Dynamics and Optimal Leverage written by Philipp Immenkötter and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores theoretically and empirically the link between macroeconomic risk and corporate financing policies. In a structural trade-off model of tax benefits and default costs, I introduce EBIT growth and volatility rates that depend on the business cycle. The model shows that leverage and its benefits are larger in expansions than in recessions. A structural break of expansion and recession patterns has a pronounced effect on optimal financing policies. The use of debt increases when recessions become milder and less volatile due to a reduction in expected default costs. In an econometric analysis, I show that my model is able to replicate empirically observed leverage patterns over the business cycle. On a sample of publicly traded US firms, I document pro-cyclical leverage ratios and an increase in leverage ratios after the reduction of macroeconomic risk in the 1980s.
Author : Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484381130
Total Pages : 41 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)
Download or read book Bank Leverage and Monetary Policy's Risk-Taking Channel written by Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-06-06 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We present evidence of a risk-taking channel of monetary policy for the U.S. banking system. We use confidential data on the internal ratings of U.S. banks on loans to businesses over the period 1997 to 2011 from the Federal Reserve’s survey of terms of business lending. We find that ex-ante risk taking by banks (as measured by the risk rating of the bank’s loan portfolio) is negatively associated with increases in short-term policy interest rates. This relationship is less pronounced for banks with relatively low capital or during periods when banks’ capital erodes, such as episodes of financial and economic distress. These results contribute to the ongoing debate on the role of monetary policy in financial stability and suggest that monetary policy has a bearing on the riskiness of banks and financial stability more generally.
Author : Robert Krainer
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 35 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)
Download or read book Risk Sharing, Return Sharing, and Arbitrage written by Robert Krainer and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a theoretical framework for understanding the interaction between production-investment decisions on the one hand, and the associated financing decisions of nonfinancial enterprises over the business cycle. At the core of this theoretical framework is an agency problem between relatively more risk averse bondholders and relatively less risk averse stockholders over the future business decisions of the firm. In this paper the solution to this agency problem is an up-front contract that directs the manager of the firm to make production-investment decisions in the interest of their stockholders, and financing decisions in the interest of their bondholders. External taste shocks initiate business cycles in this model by changing the risk aversion and required yield of shareholders. The resulting changes in share prices then sends a signal to managers to change the production-investment strategy of the firm. The changes in the production-investment strategy of firms cause business cycles. The up-front contract protecting the interests of bondholders then constrains the managers to implement a matching financial strategy (e.g., a financial leverage decision and dividend payout decision) that offsets any shock induced changes in the risk of their production-investment strategy. In this way bondholders and stockholders equitably share the risk and return resulting from the business decisions put in place by their firms over the business cycle.
Author : Hyun Song Shin
Publisher : OUP Oxford
ISBN 13 : 0191613835
Total Pages : 205 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (916 download)
Download or read book Risk and Liquidity written by Hyun Song Shin and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2010-05-27 with total page 205 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents the Clarendon Lectures in Finance by one of the leading exponents of financial booms and crises. Hyun Song Shin's work has shed light on the global financial crisis and he has been a central figure in the policy debates. The paradox of the global financial crisis is that it erupted in an era when risk management was at the core of the management of the most sophisticated financial institutions. This book explains why. The severity of the crisis is explained by financial development that put marketable assets at the heart of the financial system, and the increased sophistication of financial institutions that held and traded the assets. Step by step, the lectures build an analytical framework that take the reader through the economics behind the fluctuations in the price of risk and the boom-bust dynamics that follow. The book examines the role played by market-to-market accounting rules and securitisation in amplifying the crisis, and draws lessons for financial architecture, financial regulation and monetary policy. This book will be of interest to all serious students of economics and finance who want to delve beneath the outward manifestations to grasp the underlying dynamics of the boom-bust cycle in a modern financial system - a system where banking and capital market developments have become inseparable.
Author : Teresa C. Fort
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)
Download or read book How Firms Respond to Business Cycles written by Teresa C. Fort and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There remains considerable debate in both the theoretical and empirical literature about the differences in the cyclical dynamics of firms by firm size. Some have hypothesized that small firms are more sensitive to cycles while others have posited that larger firms are more sensitive. Researchers have found evidence supportive of both hypotheses -using different cyclical indicators and focusing on different underlying shocks. This paper contributes to the debate in two ways. First, the key distinction between firm size and firm age is introduced. The evidence presented in this paper shows that young businesses (that are typically small) exhibit very different cyclical dynamics than small/older businesses. Young/small businesses are more sensitive to the cycle than older/larger businesses. Evidence about the difference in the cyclical dynamics between small/older and large/older businesses is mixed. The second contribution is to present evidence and explore explanations for the finding that young/small businesses were hit especially hard in the Great Recession. The collapse in housing prices accounts for a significant part of the large decline of young/small businesses in the Great Recession. The decline was especially pronounced in states with a large decline in housing prices. This pattern holds even after controlling, through a panel VAR, for national and local business cycle conditions.
Author : John H. Cochrane
Publisher : Now Publishers Inc
ISBN 13 : 1933019158
Total Pages : 117 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (33 download)
Download or read book Financial Markets and the Real Economy written by John H. Cochrane and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2005 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.
Author : Ruediger Bachmann
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 38 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (731 download)
Download or read book Uncertainty business cycles - really? written by Ruediger Bachmann and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: Are fluctuations in firms' profitability risk a major cause of regular business cycles? We study this question within the framework of a heterogeneous-firm dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with fixed capital adjustment costs. In such a model, surprise increases of risk lead to a wait-and-see policy for investment at the firm level and a decrease in aggregate economic activity. We calibrate the model using German firm-level data with a broader sectoral, size and ownership coverage than comparable U.S. data sets. The use of these data enables us to provide robust lower and upper bound estimates for the size of firm-level risk fluctuations. We find that time-varying firm-level risk on its own is unlikely to be a major quantitative source of regular business cycle fluctuations. When we augment a model with only aggregate productivity shocks by time-varying risk, the risk shocks dampen the high contemporaneous correlations of the productivity-shock-only model, but do not alter the other unconditional business cycle properties
Author : Cosmin L. Ilut
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 59 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (966 download)
Download or read book Learning, Confidence, and Business Cycles written by Cosmin L. Ilut and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We build a tractable heterogeneous-firm business cycle model where firms face Knightian uncertainty about their profitability and learn it through production. The cross-sectional mean of firm-level uncertainty is high in recessions because firms invest and hire less. The higher uncertainty reduces agents' confidence and further discourages economic activity. We characterize this feedback mechanism in linear, workhorse macroeconomic models and find that it endogenously generates empirically desirable cross-equation restrictions such as: amplified and hump-shaped dynamics, co-movement driven by demand shocks and countercyclical correlated wedges in the equilibrium conditions for labor, risk-free and risky assets. In a rich model estimated on US macroeconomic and financial data, the information friction changes inference and significantly reduces the empirical need for standard real and nominal rigidities. Furthermore, endogenous idiosyncratic uncertainty propagates shocks to financial conditions, disciplined by observed spreads, as key drivers of fluctuations, and magnifies the aggregate activity's response to monetary and fiscal policies.
Author : Andrea Ciani
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 1464815585
Total Pages : 178 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (648 download)
Download or read book Making It Big written by Andrea Ciani and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2020-10-08 with total page 178 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic and social progress requires a diverse ecosystem of firms that play complementary roles. Making It Big: Why Developing Countries Need More Large Firms constitutes one of the most up-to-date assessments of how large firms are created in low- and middle-income countries and their role in development. It argues that large firms advance a range of development objectives in ways that other firms do not: large firms are more likely to innovate, export, and offer training and are more likely to adopt international standards of quality, among other contributions. Their particularities are closely associated with productivity advantages and translate into improved outcomes not only for their owners but also for their workers and for smaller enterprises in their value chains. The challenge for economic development, however, is that production does not reach economic scale in low- and middle-income countries. Why are large firms scarcer in developing countries? Drawing on a rare set of data from public and private sources, as well as proprietary data from the International Finance Corporation and case studies, this book shows that large firms are often born large—or with the attributes of largeness. In other words, what is distinct about them is often in place from day one of their operations. To fill the “missing top†? of the firm-size distribution with additional large firms, governments should support the creation of such firms by opening markets to greater competition. In low-income countries, this objective can be achieved through simple policy reorientation, such as breaking oligopolies, removing unnecessary restrictions to international trade and investment, and establishing strong rules to prevent the abuse of market power. Governments should also strive to ensure that private actors have the skills, technology, intelligence, infrastructure, and finance they need to create large ventures. Additionally, they should actively work to spread the benefits from production at scale across the largest possible number of market participants. This book seeks to bring frontier thinking and evidence on the role and origins of large firms to a wide range of readers, including academics, development practitioners and policy makers.
