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Factor Forecasting Using International Targeted Predictors The Case Of German Gdp
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Book Synopsis Factor Forecasting Using International Targeted Predictors: the Case of German GDP by : Christian Schumacher
Download or read book Factor Forecasting Using International Targeted Predictors: the Case of German GDP written by Christian Schumacher and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Forecasting German GDP Using Alternative Factor Models Based on Large Datasets by : Christian Schumacher
Download or read book Forecasting German GDP Using Alternative Factor Models Based on Large Datasets written by Christian Schumacher and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses the forecasting performance of alternative factor models based on a large panel of quarterly time series for the german economy. One model extracts factors by static principals components analysis, the other is based on dynamic principal components obtained using frequency domain methods. The third model is based on subspace algorithm for state space models. Out-of-sample forecasts show that the prediction errors of the factor models are generally smaller than the errors of simple autoregressive benchmark models. Among the factors models, either the dynamic principal component model or the subspace factor model rank highest in terms of forecast accuracy in most cases. However, neither of the dynamic factor models can provide better forecasts than the static model over all forecast horizons and different specifications of the simulation design. Therefore, the application of the dynamic factor models seems to provide only small forecasting improvements over the static factor model for forecasting German GDP.
Book Synopsis Dynamic Factor Models by : Siem Jan Koopman
Download or read book Dynamic Factor Models written by Siem Jan Koopman and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2016-01-08 with total page 685 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume explores dynamic factor model specification, asymptotic and finite-sample behavior of parameter estimators, identification, frequentist and Bayesian estimation of the corresponding state space models, and applications.
Book Synopsis Economic Forecasts by : Ralf Brüggemann
Download or read book Economic Forecasts written by Ralf Brüggemann and published by Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG. This book was released on 2016-11-21 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasts guide decisions in all areas of economics and finance. Economic policy makers base their decisions on business cycle forecasts, investment decisions of firms are based on demand forecasts, and portfolio managers try to outperform the market based on financial market forecasts. Forecasts extract relevant information from the past and help to reduce the inherent uncertainty of the future. The topic of this special issue of the Journal of Economics and Statistics is the theory and practise of forecasting and forecast evaluation and an overview of the state of the art of forecasting.
Book Synopsis Analytics in Smart Tourism Design by : Zheng Xiang
Download or read book Analytics in Smart Tourism Design written by Zheng Xiang and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-10-12 with total page 309 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents cutting edge research on the development of analytics in travel and tourism. It introduces new conceptual frameworks and measurement tools, as well as applications and case studies for destination marketing and management. It is divided into five parts: Part one on travel demand analytics focuses on conceptualizing and implementing travel demand modeling using big data. It illustrates new ways to identify, generate and utilize large quantities of data in tourism demand forecasting and modeling. Part two focuses on analytics in travel and everyday life, presenting recent developments in wearable computers and physiological measurement devices, and the implications for our understanding of on-the-go travelers and tourism design. Part three embraces tourism geoanalytics, correlating social media and geo-based data with tourism statistics. Part four discusses web-based and social media analytics and presents the latest developments in utilizing user-generated content on the Internet to understand a number of managerial problems. The final part is a collection of case studies using web-based and social media analytics, with examples from the Sochi Olympics on Twitter, leveraging online reviews in the hotel industry, and evaluating destination communications and market intelligence with online hotel reviews. The chapters in this section collectively describe a range of different approaches to understanding market dynamics in tourism and hospitality.
Book Synopsis Machine Learning and Data Sciences for Financial Markets by : Agostino Capponi
Download or read book Machine Learning and Data Sciences for Financial Markets written by Agostino Capponi and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2023-04-30 with total page 742 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Leveraging the research efforts of more than sixty experts in the area, this book reviews cutting-edge practices in machine learning for financial markets. Instead of seeing machine learning as a new field, the authors explore the connection between knowledge developed by quantitative finance over the past forty years and techniques generated by the current revolution driven by data sciences and artificial intelligence. The text is structured around three main areas: 'Interactions with investors and asset owners,' which covers robo-advisors and price formation; 'Risk intermediation,' which discusses derivative hedging, portfolio construction, and machine learning for dynamic optimization; and 'Connections with the real economy,' which explores nowcasting, alternative data, and ethics of algorithms. Accessible to a wide audience, this invaluable resource will allow practitioners to include machine learning driven techniques in their day-to-day quantitative practices, while students will build intuition and come to appreciate the technical tools and motivation for the theory.
Book Synopsis Factor-Midas for Now- and Forecasting with Ragged-edge Data by : Massimiliano Marcellino
Download or read book Factor-Midas for Now- and Forecasting with Ragged-edge Data written by Massimiliano Marcellino and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Monthly Report of the Deutsche Bundesbank by : Deutsche Bundesbank
Download or read book Monthly Report of the Deutsche Bundesbank written by Deutsche Bundesbank and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 480 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Short-Term Forecasting for Empirical Economists by : Maximo Camacho
Download or read book Short-Term Forecasting for Empirical Economists written by Maximo Camacho and published by . This book was released on 2013-11-01 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Short-term Forecasting for Empirical Economists seeks to close the gap between research and applied short-term forecasting. The authors review some of the key theoretical results and empirical findings in the recent literature on short-term forecasting, and translate these findings into economically meaningful techniques to facilitate their widespread application to compute short-term forecasts in economics, and to monitor the ongoing business cycle developments in real time.
Book Synopsis Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter by : Andrew C. Harvey
Download or read book Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter written by Andrew C. Harvey and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1990 with total page 574 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A synthesis of concepts and materials, that ordinarily appear separately in time series and econometrics literature, presents a comprehensive review of theoretical and applied concepts in modeling economic and social time series.
Book Synopsis Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods by : James Durbin
Download or read book Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods written by James Durbin and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2012-05-03 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This new edition updates Durbin & Koopman's important text on the state space approach to time series analysis. The distinguishing feature of state space time series models is that observations are regarded as made up of distinct components such as trend, seasonal, regression elements and disturbance terms, each of which is modelled separately. The techniques that emerge from this approach are very flexible and are capable of handling a much wider range of problems than the main analytical system currently in use for time series analysis, the Box-Jenkins ARIMA system. Additions to this second edition include the filtering of nonlinear and non-Gaussian series. Part I of the book obtains the mean and variance of the state, of a variable intended to measure the effect of an interaction and of regression coefficients, in terms of the observations. Part II extends the treatment to nonlinear and non-normal models. For these, analytical solutions are not available so methods are based on simulation.
Book Synopsis Dynamic Factor Models by : Jörg Breitung
Download or read book Dynamic Factor Models written by Jörg Breitung and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Factor Forecasting Using International Targeted Predictors by : Christian Schumacher
Download or read book Factor Forecasting Using International Targeted Predictors written by Christian Schumacher and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper considers factor forecasting with national versus factor forecasting withinternational data. We forecast German GDP based on a large set of about 500 time series, consisting of German data as well as data from Euro-area and G7 countries. For factor estimation, we consider standard principal components as well as variable preselection prior to factor estimation using targeted predictors following Bai and Ng [Forecasting economic time series using targeted predictors, Journal of Econometrics 146 (2008), 304-317]. The results are as follows: Forecasting without data preselection favours the use of German data only, and no additional information content can be extracted from international data. However, when using targeted predictors for variable selection, international data generally improves the forecastability of German GDP.
Book Synopsis Global Trends 2040 by : National Intelligence Council
Download or read book Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2021-03 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Book Synopsis The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting by : Michael P. Clements
Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Michael P. Clements and published by OUP USA. This book was released on 2011-07-08 with total page 732 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic theory to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models.
Book Synopsis Powering the Digital Economy: Opportunities and Risks of Artificial Intelligence in Finance by : El Bachir Boukherouaa
Download or read book Powering the Digital Economy: Opportunities and Risks of Artificial Intelligence in Finance written by El Bachir Boukherouaa and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-10-22 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses the impact of the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in the financial sector. It highlights the benefits these technologies bring in terms of financial deepening and efficiency, while raising concerns about its potential in widening the digital divide between advanced and developing economies. The paper advances the discussion on the impact of this technology by distilling and categorizing the unique risks that it could pose to the integrity and stability of the financial system, policy challenges, and potential regulatory approaches. The evolving nature of this technology and its application in finance means that the full extent of its strengths and weaknesses is yet to be fully understood. Given the risk of unexpected pitfalls, countries will need to strengthen prudential oversight.
Book Synopsis Commodity Prices and Markets by : Takatoshi Ito
Download or read book Commodity Prices and Markets written by Takatoshi Ito and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2011-03 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.
