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Extreme Value Theory A Conditional Approach For Value At Risk Estimation In The Brazilian Stock Market
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Book Synopsis Extreme value theory: a conditional approach for value at risk estimation in the brazilian stock market by :
Download or read book Extreme value theory: a conditional approach for value at risk estimation in the brazilian stock market written by and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Um dos fatos estilizados mais pronunciados acerca das distribuições de retornos financeiros diz respeito à presença de caudas pesadas. Isso torna os modelos paramétricos tradicionais de cálculo de Valor em Risco (VaR) inadequados para a estimação de VaR de baixas probabilidades (1% ou menos), dado que estes se baseiam na hipótese de normalidade para as distribuições dos retornos. Tais modelos não são capazes de inferir sobre as reais possibilidades de ocorrência de retornos atípicos. Sendo assim, o objetivo do presente trabalho é investigar o desempenho de modelos baseados na Teoria dos Valores Extremos para o cálculo de VaR, comparando-os com modelostradicionais. Um modelo incondicional, proposto a caracterizar o comportamento de longo prazo da série, e um modelo condicional, sugerido por McNeil e Frey(1999), proposto a caracterizar a dependência presente na variância condicional dos retornos foram utilizados e testados em quatro séries de retornos de ações representativas do mercado brasileiro: retornos de Ibovespa, retornos deIbovespa Futuro, retornos das ações da Telesp e retornos das ações da Petrobrás. Os resultados indicam que os modelos baseados na Teoria dos Valores Extremos são mais adequados para a modelagem das caudas, e conseqüentemente para a estimação de Valor em Risco quando os níveisde probabilidade de interesse são baixos. Além disso, o modelo condicional é mais adequado em épocas de crise, pois, ao contrário do modelo incondicional, tem a capacidade de responder rapidamente a mudanças na volatilidade. Medidas alternativas de risco, como a perda média e a perda mediana também foram propostas, a fim de fornecer estimativas para as perdas no caso do VaR ser violado.
Book Synopsis Empirical Tests of Parametric and Non-parametric Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) Measures for the Brazilian Stock Market Index by : Luciano Martin Rostagno
Download or read book Empirical Tests of Parametric and Non-parametric Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) Measures for the Brazilian Stock Market Index written by Luciano Martin Rostagno and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 114 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study aims to verify empirically the accuracy of parametric and non-parametric approaches in estimating Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) measures of the Brazilian stock market index (Ibovespa). The period of analysis goes from the first day of trade of 1995 to the last day of trade of 2004, which is used for estimation and test of the risk parameters. Parametric approaches assume that daily returns follow a normal and a t-distribution. Non-parametric approaches are the historical simulation and the volatility-weighted historical simulation technique. The binomial test is applied to verify if the failure rates predicted by VaR measures given by the models are acceptable and the sample differences paired test is used to evaluate the accuracy of the CVaR measures in forecasting tail losses. The results point out that the volatility-weighted historical simulation approach gives better estimates of both measures of risk. The rates of losses exceeding volatility-weighted historical simulation VaRs (VWHS-VaRs) ranged between 4.7-6.0%, at the 95% cl, and between 0.9-1.2%, at the 99% cl. For all periods of estimation used (1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years), at the 95% cl, the sample differences paired test indicated no statistically significant differences between the VWHS-CVaR estimates and the losses beyond its VaR estimates. Risk lines for the normal and historical simulation VaR (HS-VaR) estimates presented flatness, or excessive smoothness, for large periods of estimation, and the student t VaR (T-VaR) estimates were sometimes too low or too high. For these models, short periods of estimation gave more accurate VaR estimates. For the CVaR estimates, the normal and t-distribution assumptions caused overestimation of the value of the tail losses. Finally, the HS-CVaR had similar performance of HS-VaR providing, at the 95% cl, good estimates of tail losses when short periods of estimation were used.
Book Synopsis From Value at Risk to Stress Testing by : François M. Longin
Download or read book From Value at Risk to Stress Testing written by François M. Longin and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Brazilian stock return series: volatility and value at risk by :
Download or read book Brazilian stock return series: volatility and value at risk written by and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: O objetivo principal do trabalho é o estudo dos resultados obtidos com a aplicação de diferentes modelos para estimar a volatilidade das ações brasileiras. Foram analisadas as séries de retornos diários de seis ações, num período de 1200 dias de pregão. Inicialmente, as séries foram estudadas quanto a suas propriedades estatísticas: estacionariedade, distribuição incondicional e independência. Concluiu-se que as séries são estacionárias na média, mas não houve conclusão quanto à variância, nesta análise inicial. A distribuição dos retornos não é normal, por apresentar leptocurtose. Os retornos mostraram dependência no tempo, linear e, principalmente, não linear. Modelada a dependência linear, foram aplicados dez modelos diferentes para tentar capturar a dependência não linear através da modelagem da volatilidade: os modelos foram avaliados, dentro e fora da amostra, pelos seus resíduos e pelos erros de previsão. Os resultados indicaram que os modelos menos elaborados tendem a representar pior oprocesso gerador dos dados, mas que os modelos pouco parcimoniosos são de difícil estimação e seus resultados não correspondem ao que seria esperado em função de suasofisticação. As volatilidades estimadas pelos dez modelos foram utilizadas para prever valor em risco (VaR), usando-se dois processos para determinar os quantis das distribuições dos resíduos: distribuição empírica e teoria de valores extremos. Os resultados indicaram que os modelos menos elaborados prevêem melhor o VaR. Isto se deve à nãoestacionariedade das séries na variância, que fica evidente ao longo do trabalho.
Book Synopsis Fractal Approaches for Modeling Financial Assets and Predicting Crises by : Nekrasova, Inna
Download or read book Fractal Approaches for Modeling Financial Assets and Predicting Crises written by Nekrasova, Inna and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2018-02-09 with total page 324 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In an ever-changing economy, market specialists strive to find new ways to evaluate the risks and potential reward of economic ventures. They start by assessing the importance of human reaction during the economic planning process and put together systems to measure financial markets and their longevity. Fractal Approaches for Modeling Financial Assets and Predicting Crises is a critical scholarly resource that examines the fractal structure and long-term memory of the financial markets in order to predict prices of financial assets and financial crises. Featuring coverage on a broad range of topics, such as computational process models, chaos theory, and game theory, this book is geared towards academicians, researchers, and students seeking current research on pricing and predicting financial crises.
Book Synopsis Extreme Value Methods with Applications to Finance by : Serguei Y. Novak
Download or read book Extreme Value Methods with Applications to Finance written by Serguei Y. Novak and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2011-12-20 with total page 397 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Extreme value theory (EVT) deals with extreme (rare) events, which are sometimes reported as outliers. Certain textbooks encourage readers to remove outliers-in other words, to correct reality if it does not fit the model. Recognizing that any model is only an approximation of reality, statisticians are eager to extract information about unknown di
Book Synopsis On extreme value statistics by : Chen Zhou
Download or read book On extreme value statistics written by Chen Zhou and published by Rozenberg Publishers. This book was released on 2008 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the 18th century, statisticians sometimes worked as consultants to gamblers. In order to answer questions like "If a fair coin is flipped 100 times, what is the probability of getting 60 or more heads?", Abraham de Moivre discovered the so-called "normal curve". Independently, Pierre-Simon Laplace derived the central limit theorem, where the normal distribution acts as the limit for the distribution of the sample mean. Nowadays, statisticians sometimes work as consultants for economists, to whom the normal distribution is far from a satisfactory model. For example, one may need to model large-impact financial events in order to to answer questions like "What is the probability of getting into a crisis period similar to the credit squeeze in 2007 in the coming 10 years?". At first glance, estimating the chances of events that rarely happen or even have never happened before sounds like a "mission impossible". The development of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) shows that it is in fact possible to achieve this goal. Different from the central limit theorem, Extreme Value Theory starts from the limit distribution of the sample maximum. Initiated by M. Frechet, R. Fisher and R. von Mises, the limit theory completed by B. Gnedenko, gave the fundamental assumption in EVT, the "extreme value condition". Statistically, the extreme value condition provides a semi-parametric model for the tails of distribution functions. Therefore it can be applied to evaluate the rare events. On the other hand, since the assumption is rather general and natural, the semi-parametric model can have extensive applications in numerous felds.
Book Synopsis Refining Value-at-Risk Estimates by : Marius Galabe Sampid
Download or read book Refining Value-at-Risk Estimates written by Marius Galabe Sampid and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Estimation of Value at Risk Using Methods from Extreme Value Theory by :
Download or read book Estimation of Value at Risk Using Methods from Extreme Value Theory written by and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 126 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Extreme Value Theory and Applications by : J. Galambos
Download or read book Extreme Value Theory and Applications written by J. Galambos and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-12-01 with total page 526 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It appears that we live in an age of disasters: the mighty Missis sippi and Missouri flood millions of acres, earthquakes hit Tokyo and California, airplanes crash due to mechanical failure and the seemingly ever increasing wind speeds make the storms more and more frightening. While all these may seem to be unexpected phenomena to the man on the street, they are actually happening according to well defined rules of science known as extreme value theory. We know that records must be broken in the future, so if a flood design is based on the worst case of the past then we are not really prepared against floods. Materials will fail due to fatigue, so if the body of an aircraft looks fine to the naked eye, it might still suddenly fail if the aircraft has been in operation over an extended period of time. Our theory has by now penetrated the so cial sciences, the medical profession, economics and even astronomy. We believe that our field has come of age. In or~er to fully utilize the great progress in the theory of extremes and its ever increasing acceptance in practice, an international conference was organized in which equal weight was given to theory and practice. This book is Volume I of the Proceedings of this conference. In selecting the papers for Volume lour guide was to have authoritative works with a large variety of coverage of both theory and practice.
Book Synopsis Estimation of Extreme Value-at-Risk by : Yanping Yi
Download or read book Estimation of Extreme Value-at-Risk written by Yanping Yi and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 10 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We proposed a method to estimate extreme conditional quantiles by combining quantile GARCH model of Xiao and Koenker (2009) and extreme value theory (EVT) approach. We first estimate the latent volatility process using the information of intermediate quantiles. We then apply EVT to the tail observations to obtain a sound estimate of the likelihood of experiencing an extreme event. Quantile autoregression and EVT together improve efficiency in estimation of extreme quantiles, by borrowing information from neighbor quantiles. Monte Carlo simulation indicates that, the proposed method is promising to provide more accurate estimates for VaR of a financial portfolio, where non-Gaussian tail is present.
Book Synopsis Extreme Value Theory Based Measurement of Value at Risk by : Shuhrat Mirzalimov
Download or read book Extreme Value Theory Based Measurement of Value at Risk written by Shuhrat Mirzalimov and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 140 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Stock Price Analysis Under Extreme Value Theory by : Paul Louangrath
Download or read book Stock Price Analysis Under Extreme Value Theory written by Paul Louangrath and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The objective of this paper is to provide a practical tool for stock price evaluation and forecasting under Extreme Value Theory (EVT). Three existing models are reviewed; these models include: Mordern Portfolio Theory, Black-Scholes, and Jarrow-Rudd models. It was found that these models may not be effective tools where option contract is not part of the investment regime. The data used in this research consist of the daily close price from a period of 30 days from 100 companies in the SET100 index. From the sample distribution F(X), extreme values were identified. A tail index E was calculated to verify the distribution for each security was identified. Using EVT, the threshold value was estimated and used as a tool for risk assessment for each stock. It was found that Thailand's SET100 consists of two groups of stocks according to price distribution. The majority of the stocks are Weibull distributed and the remaining stocks are Fréchet distributed. Using Fisher-Tippett-Gnedenko's Generalized Extreme Value to calculate price volatility, the Weibull group shows the mean value of H = 0.57 , and the Fréchet group shows H = 0.05 . The findings may be used as a tool for risk assessment in stock investment. This finding rejects the general assertion that most financial data are fat-tailed distribution. The finding of this paper implies that investors face two categories of stocks: low and high price volatility. The idea of sector diversity becomes secondary. Empirical evidence shows that stocks from different sectors may have the same distribution and stocks of the same sector may have different distributions. Therefore, price volatility index is a better indicator for risk management.
Download or read book Extreme Value Theory written by and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Financial Risk Forecasting by : Jon Danielsson
Download or read book Financial Risk Forecasting written by Jon Danielsson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-04-20 with total page 307 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Risk Forecasting is a complete introduction to practical quantitative risk management, with a focus on market risk. Derived from the authors teaching notes and years spent training practitioners in risk management techniques, it brings together the three key disciplines of finance, statistics and modeling (programming), to provide a thorough grounding in risk management techniques. Written by renowned risk expert Jon Danielsson, the book begins with an introduction to financial markets and market prices, volatility clusters, fat tails and nonlinear dependence. It then goes on to present volatility forecasting with both univatiate and multivatiate methods, discussing the various methods used by industry, with a special focus on the GARCH family of models. The evaluation of the quality of forecasts is discussed in detail. Next, the main concepts in risk and models to forecast risk are discussed, especially volatility, value-at-risk and expected shortfall. The focus is both on risk in basic assets such as stocks and foreign exchange, but also calculations of risk in bonds and options, with analytical methods such as delta-normal VaR and duration-normal VaR and Monte Carlo simulation. The book then moves on to the evaluation of risk models with methods like backtesting, followed by a discussion on stress testing. The book concludes by focussing on the forecasting of risk in very large and uncommon events with extreme value theory and considering the underlying assumptions behind almost every risk model in practical use – that risk is exogenous – and what happens when those assumptions are violated. Every method presented brings together theoretical discussion and derivation of key equations and a discussion of issues in practical implementation. Each method is implemented in both MATLAB and R, two of the most commonly used mathematical programming languages for risk forecasting with which the reader can implement the models illustrated in the book. The book includes four appendices. The first introduces basic concepts in statistics and financial time series referred to throughout the book. The second and third introduce R and MATLAB, providing a discussion of the basic implementation of the software packages. And the final looks at the concept of maximum likelihood, especially issues in implementation and testing. The book is accompanied by a website - www.financialriskforecasting.com – which features downloadable code as used in the book.
Book Synopsis Dynamic Extreme Value Theory (DEVT) by : Tsun Ip Leung
Download or read book Dynamic Extreme Value Theory (DEVT) written by Tsun Ip Leung and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis by : Mr.Andreas A. Jobst
Download or read book Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis written by Mr.Andreas A. Jobst and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-02-27 with total page 93 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent global financial crisis has forced a re-examination of risk transmission in the financial sector and how it affects financial stability. Current macroprudential policy and surveillance (MPS) efforts are aimed establishing a regulatory framework that helps mitigate the risk from systemic linkages with a view towards enhancing the resilience of the financial sector. This paper presents a forward-looking framework ("Systemic CCA") to measure systemic solvency risk based on market-implied expected losses of financial institutions with practical applications for the financial sector risk management and the system-wide capital assessment in top-down stress testing. The suggested approach uses advanced contingent claims analysis (CCA) to generate aggregate estimates of the joint default risk of multiple institutions as a conditional tail expectation using multivariate extreme value theory (EVT). In addition, the framework also helps quantify the individual contributions to systemic risk and contingent liabilities of the financial sector during times of stress.
