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Extreme Inflation And Time Varying Expected Consumption Growth
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Book Synopsis Strategic Asset Allocation by : John Y. Campbell
Download or read book Strategic Asset Allocation written by John Y. Campbell and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2002-01-03 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Academic finance has had a remarkable impact on many financial services. Yet long-term investors have received curiously little guidance from academic financial economists. Mean-variance analysis, developed almost fifty years ago, has provided a basic paradigm for portfolio choice. This approach usefully emphasizes the ability of diversification to reduce risk, but it ignores several critically important factors. Most notably, the analysis is static; it assumes that investors care only about risks to wealth one period ahead. However, many investors—-both individuals and institutions such as charitable foundations or universities—-seek to finance a stream of consumption over a long lifetime. In addition, mean-variance analysis treats financial wealth in isolation from income. Long-term investors typically receive a stream of income and use it, along with financial wealth, to support their consumption. At the theoretical level, it is well understood that the solution to a long-term portfolio choice problem can be very different from the solution to a short-term problem. Long-term investors care about intertemporal shocks to investment opportunities and labor income as well as shocks to wealth itself, and they may use financial assets to hedge their intertemporal risks. This should be important in practice because there is a great deal of empirical evidence that investment opportunities—-both interest rates and risk premia on bonds and stocks—-vary through time. Yet this insight has had little influence on investment practice because it is hard to solve for optimal portfolios in intertemporal models. This book seeks to develop the intertemporal approach into an empirical paradigm that can compete with the standard mean-variance analysis. The book shows that long-term inflation-indexed bonds are the riskless asset for long-term investors, it explains the conditions under which stocks are safer assets for long-term than for short-term investors, and it shows how labor income influences portfolio choice. These results shed new light on the rules of thumb used by financial planners. The book explains recent advances in both analytical and numerical methods, and shows how they can be used to understand the portfolio choice problems of long-term investors.
Book Synopsis Inflation Expectations by : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Book Synopsis Financial Markets and the Real Economy by : John H. Cochrane
Download or read book Financial Markets and the Real Economy written by John H. Cochrane and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2005 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.
Book Synopsis NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003 by : Mark Gertler
Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003 written by Mark Gertler and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2004 with total page 436 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The NBER Macroeconomics Annual presents pioneering work in macroeconomics by leading academic researchers to an audience of public policymakers and the academic community. Each commissioned paper is followed by comments and discussion. This year's edition provides a mix of cutting-edge research and policy analysis on such topics as productivity and information technology, the increase in wealth inequality, behavioral economics, and inflation.
Book Synopsis National Saving and Economic Performance by : B. Douglas Bernheim
Download or read book National Saving and Economic Performance written by B. Douglas Bernheim and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 1991-05 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "... Papers presented at a conference held at the Stouffer Wailea Hotel, Maui, Hawaii, January 6-7, 1989. ... part of the Research on Taxation program of the National Bureau of Economic Research." -- p. ix.
Book Synopsis The Inflation-Targeting Debate by : Ben S. Bernanke
Download or read book The Inflation-Targeting Debate written by Ben S. Bernanke and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 469 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past fifteen years, a significant number of industrialized and middle-income countries have adopted inflation targeting as a framework for monetary policymaking. As the name suggests, in such inflation-targeting regimes, the central bank is responsible for achieving a publicly announced target for the inflation rate. While the objective of controlling inflation enjoys wide support among both academic experts and policymakers, and while the countries that have followed this model have generally experienced good macroeconomic outcomes, many important questions about inflation targeting remain. In Inflation Targeting, a distinguished group of contributors explores the many underexamined dimensions of inflation targeting—its potential, its successes, and its limitations—from both a theoretical and an empirical standpoint, and for both developed and emerging economies. The volume opens with a discussion of the optimal formulation of inflation-targeting policy and continues with a debate about the desirability of such a model for the United States. The concluding chapters discuss the special problems of inflation targeting in emerging markets, including the Czech Republic, Poland, and Hungary.
Book Synopsis Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy by : Matthias Kalkuhl
Download or read book Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy written by Matthias Kalkuhl and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-12 with total page 620 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides fresh insights into concepts, methods and new research findings on the causes of excessive food price volatility. It also discusses the implications for food security and policy responses to mitigate excessive volatility. The approaches applied by the contributors range from on-the-ground surveys, to panel econometrics and innovative high-frequency time series analysis as well as computational economics methods. It offers policy analysts and decision-makers guidance on dealing with extreme volatility.
Book Synopsis Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies by : Jongrim Ha
Download or read book Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies written by Jongrim Ha and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2019-02-24 with total page 524 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.
Book Synopsis Innocent Bystanders? Monetary Policy and Inequality in the U.S. by : Mr.Olivier Coibion
Download or read book Innocent Bystanders? Monetary Policy and Inequality in the U.S. written by Mr.Olivier Coibion and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-01 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the effects and historical contribution of monetary policy shocks to consumption and income inequality in the United States since 1980. Contractionary monetary policy actions systematically increase inequality in labor earnings, total income, consumption and total expenditures. Furthermore, monetary shocks can account for a significant component of the historical cyclical variation in income and consumption inequality. Using detailed micro-level data on income and consumption, we document the different channels via which monetary policy shocks affect inequality, as well as how these channels depend on the nature of the change in monetary policy.
Download or read book Volatility written by Robert A. Jarrow and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 472 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Written by a number of authors, this text is aimed at market practitioners and applies the latest stochastic volatility research findings to the analysis of stock prices. It includes commentary and analysis based on real-life situations.
Book Synopsis Classical Time-Varying FAVAR Models - Estimation, Forecasting and Structural Analysis by : Sandra Eickmeier
Download or read book Classical Time-Varying FAVAR Models - Estimation, Forecasting and Structural Analysis written by Sandra Eickmeier and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose a classical approach to estimate factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) models with time variation in the factor loadings, in the factor dynamics, and in the variance-covariance matrix of innovations. When the time-varying FAVAR is estimated using a large quarterly dataset of US variables from 1972 to 2007, the results indicate some changes in the factor dynamics, and more marked variation in the factors' shock volatility and their loading parameters. Forecasts from the time-varying FAVAR are more accurate than those from a constant parameter FAVAR for most variables and horizons when computed insample, for some variables in pseudo real time, mostly financial indicators. Finally, we use the time-varying FAVAR to assess how monetary transmission to the economy has changed. We find substantial time variation in the volatility of monetary policy shocks, and we observe that the reaction of GDP, the GDP deflator, inflation expectations and long-term interest rates to an equally-sized monetary policy shock has decreased since the early-1980s.
Author :United States. Congress. Senate. Advisory Commission to Study the Consumer Price Index Publisher : ISBN 13 : Total Pages :212 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (91 download)
Book Synopsis Toward a More Accurate Measure of the Cost of Living by : United States. Congress. Senate. Advisory Commission to Study the Consumer Price Index
Download or read book Toward a More Accurate Measure of the Cost of Living written by United States. Congress. Senate. Advisory Commission to Study the Consumer Price Index and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Economic Policy and the Great Stagflation by : Alan S. Blinder
Download or read book Economic Policy and the Great Stagflation written by Alan S. Blinder and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-09-11 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic Policy and the Great Stagflation discusses the national economic policy and economics as a policy-oriented science. This book summarizes what economists do and do not know about the inflation and recession that affected the U.S. economy during the years of the Great Stagflation in the mid-1970s. The topics discussed include the basic concepts of stagflation, turbulent economic history of 1971-1976, anatomy of the great recession and inflation, and legacy of the Great Stagflation. The relation of wage-price controls, fiscal policy, and monetary policy to the Great Stagflation is also elaborated. This publication is beneficial to economists and students researching on the history of the Great Stagflation and policy errors of the 1970s.
Book Synopsis Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy by : Carl Chiarella
Download or read book Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy written by Carl Chiarella and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-06-02 with total page 513 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This important new book from a group of Keynesian, but nonetheless technically-oriented economists explores one of the dominant paradigms in financial economics: the ‘intertemporal general equilibrium approach’.
Book Synopsis Economic Events, Ideas, and Policies by : George L. Perry
Download or read book Economic Events, Ideas, and Policies written by George L. Perry and published by Brookings Inst Press. This book was released on 2000 with total page 365 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume examines how the application of economic analysis has affected U.S. policymaking since the 1960s.
Book Synopsis Global Trends 2040 by : National Intelligence Council
Download or read book Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2021-03 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Book Synopsis Handbook of the Economics of Finance SET:Volumes 2A & 2B by : George M. Constantinides
Download or read book Handbook of the Economics of Finance SET:Volumes 2A & 2B written by George M. Constantinides and published by Newnes. This book was released on 2013-01-21 with total page 1732 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This two-volume set of 23 articles authoritatively describes recent scholarship in corporate finance and asset pricing. Volume 1 concentrates on corporate finance, encompassing topics such as financial innovation and securitization, dynamic security design, and family firms. Volume 2 focuses on asset pricing with articles on market liquidity, credit derivatives, and asset pricing theory, among others. Both volumes present scholarship about the 2008 financial crisis in contexts that highlight both continuity and divergence in research. For those who seek insightful perspectives and important details, they demonstrate how corporate finance studies have interpreted recent events and incorporated their lessons. - Covers core and newly-developing fields - Explains how the 2008 financial crises affected theoretical and empirical research - Exposes readers to a wide range of subjects described and analyzed by the best scholars