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Export Spillovers From Global Shocks For The Middle East And Central Asia
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Book Synopsis Export Spillovers from Global Shocks for the Middle East and Central Asia by : Mr.Alberto Behar
Download or read book Export Spillovers from Global Shocks for the Middle East and Central Asia written by Mr.Alberto Behar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-05-09 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper quantifies the effect of realized and potential global growth disappointments on export volumes from the Middle East, North Africa, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. Estimates of export elasticities with respect to trading partner GDP indicate non-oil export volumes are relatively responsive while service exports are less responsive. Downward revisions to global GDP growth for 2011–14 have impeded export performance, and the possibility of disappointing GDP growth in Europe and emerging markets presents further downside risks for exports. The Maghreb countries are particularly sensitive to developments in Europe, while CCA countries are more susceptible to growth in the BRICS.
Book Synopsis Export Spillovers from Global Shocks for the Middle East and Central Asia by : Mr.Alberto Behar
Download or read book Export Spillovers from Global Shocks for the Middle East and Central Asia written by Mr.Alberto Behar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-05-09 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper quantifies the effect of realized and potential global growth disappointments on export volumes from the Middle East, North Africa, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. Estimates of export elasticities with respect to trading partner GDP indicate non-oil export volumes are relatively responsive while service exports are less responsive. Downward revisions to global GDP growth for 2011–14 have impeded export performance, and the possibility of disappointing GDP growth in Europe and emerging markets presents further downside risks for exports. The Maghreb countries are particularly sensitive to developments in Europe, while CCA countries are more susceptible to growth in the BRICS.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1484348834 Total Pages :657 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (843 download)
Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, October 2013 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook, October 2013 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-10-08 with total page 657 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global growth is in low gear, and the drivers of activity are changing. These dynamics raise new policy challenges. Advanced economies are growing again but must continue financial sector repair, pursue fiscal consolidation, and spur job growth. Emerging market economies face the dual challenges of slowing growth and tighter global financial conditions. This issue of the World Economic Outlook examines the potential spillovers from these transitions and the appropriate policy responses. Chapter 3 explores how output comovements are influenced by policy and financial shocks, growth surprises, and other linkages. Chapter 4 assesses why certain emerging market economies were able to avoid the classical boom-and-bust cycle in the face of volatile capital flows during the global financial crisis.
Book Synopsis Global Shocks and the New Global and Regional Financial Architecture by : Naoyuki Yoshino
Download or read book Global Shocks and the New Global and Regional Financial Architecture written by Naoyuki Yoshino and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Asian economies continue to be subject to new shocks: US monetary policy tightening, the adoption of negative-interest-rate policies by central banks all over the world, the slowdown of the People's Republic of China, and the sharp drop in oil and other commodity prices. All these highlight the vulnerability of the region to volatile trade and capital flows even as the global and Asian regional financial architecture evolves. This volume analyzes the vulnerabilities of Asian economies to external economic and financial shocks and assesses the performance of Asian regional institutions in financial surveillance and cooperation. It also evaluates ongoing reforms of the global financial architecture, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Financial Stability Board, and reviews the experience of the "Troika" (European Commission, European Central Bank, and the IMF) in managing the European sovereign debt and banking crisis. Based on these, the book develops valuable recommendations to strengthen the Asian regional financial architecture and improve cooperation with global multilateral institutions.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1475510810 Total Pages :131 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (755 download)
Book Synopsis Regional Economic Outlook, November 2012, Middle East and Central Asia by : International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Download or read book Regional Economic Outlook, November 2012, Middle East and Central Asia written by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-11-09 with total page 131 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The outlook for the Middle East and North Africa region is mixed. Oil-importing countries are witnessing tepid growth, and the moderate recovery expected in 2013 is subject to heightened downside risks. For the Arab countries in transition, ongoing political transitions also weigh on growth. With policy buffers largely eroded, the need for action on macroeconomic stabilization and growth-oriented reforms is becoming increasingly urgent. Countries will need to put in place safety nets to protect the poor and build consensus for some difficult fiscal choices. The region’s oil exporters are expected to post solid growth in 2012, in part due to Libya’s better-than-expected postwar recovery. In the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, robust growth is supported by expansionary fiscal policies and accommodative monetary conditions. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, the outlook remains favorable, reflecting high oil prices that are benefiting oil and gas exporters, supportive commodity prices and remittance inflows benefiting oil and gas importers, and, for both groups, moderate direct exposure to Europe. The positive outlook provides an opportunity to strengthen policy buffers to prepare for any downside risks.
Book Synopsis State-Owned Enterprises in Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia: Size, Costs, and Challenges by : Mr. Ernesto Ramirez Rigo
Download or read book State-Owned Enterprises in Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia: Size, Costs, and Challenges written by Mr. Ernesto Ramirez Rigo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-09-20 with total page 153 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Prior to the COVID-19 shock, the key challenge facing policymakers in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia region was how to generate strong, sustainable, job-rich, inclusive growth. Post-COVID-19, this challenge has only grown given the additional reduction in fiscal space due to the crisis and the increased need to support the recovery. The sizable state-owned enterprise (SOE) footprint in the region, together with its cost to the government, call for revisiting the SOE sector to help open fiscal space and look for growth opportunities.
Book Synopsis U.S. Monetary Policy Spillovers to Middle East and Central Asia: Shocks, Fundamentals, and Propagations by : Giovanni Ugazio
Download or read book U.S. Monetary Policy Spillovers to Middle East and Central Asia: Shocks, Fundamentals, and Propagations written by Giovanni Ugazio and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-01-19 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We empirically examine U.S. monetary policy spillovers to the Middle East and Central Asia (ME & CA) region by decomposing U.S. interest rates changes into two orthogonal shocks: the pure monetary policy shock and the information news shock. Using a sample of 16 ME & CA countries, we find that when interest rates increase, the two shocks have opposite spillovers on the region. Tightening driven by contractionary monetary policy shocks hinders growth, while tightening driven by positive information news shocks boosts growth despite higher interest rates. Countries with weaker fundamentals face more negative spillovers from contractionary monetary policy shocks but may sometimes benefit more from positive information news shocks. Moreover, high oil prices mitigate both spillovers for oil exporters while global risk appetite amplifies both spillovers. Finally, we estimate a large degree of heterogeneity in the impact of the 2022 U.S. tightening cycle on ME & CA countries, with oil exporters with stronger fundamentals withstanding well the shock and oil importers with weaker fundamentals being hit the most.
Book Synopsis Global Economic Prospects, January 2016 by : WorldBank
Download or read book Global Economic Prospects, January 2016 written by WorldBank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2016-01-21 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The January 2016 edition of Global Economic Prospects discusses current global and regional economic developments and prospects, analyzing key challenges and opportunities confronting developing countries. This volume addresses, among other topics, spillovers from large emerging markets and macroeconomic vulnerabilities during resource development. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report. Semiannually (January and June), it examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on developing countries. The report includes analysis of topical policy challenges faced by developing countries through in-depth research in the January edition and shorter analytical pieces in the June edition.
Book Synopsis Changing Patterns of Global Trade by : Nagwa Riad
Download or read book Changing Patterns of Global Trade written by Nagwa Riad and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-01-15 with total page 87 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Changing Patterns of Global Trade outlines the factors underlying important shifts in global trade that have occurred in recent decades. The emergence of global supply chains and their increasing role in trade patterns allowed emerging market economies to boost their inputs in high-technology exports and is associated with increased trade interconnectedness.The analysis points to one important trend taking place over the last decade: the emergence of China as a major systemically important trading hub, reflecting not only the size of trade but also the increase in number of its significant trading partners.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1616351292 Total Pages :118 pages Book Rating :4.6/5 (163 download)
Book Synopsis Regional Economic Outlook, October 2011, Middle East and Central Asia by : International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Download or read book Regional Economic Outlook, October 2011, Middle East and Central Asia written by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-10-26 with total page 118 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Arab Spring holds the promise of improved living standards and a more prosperous future for the peoples of the Middle East and North Africa region. At the same time, the region is witnessing uncertainty and economic pressures from domestic and external sources, which will likely be exacerbated by the recent worsening of the global economy. The main challenge in the short term will be to manage expectations while maintaining economic stability. To that end, better-targeted subsidies and transfers will help free up resources for investment in infrastructure, education, and health. Policies aimed at fostering inclusive growth will also help cement the longer-term benefits of the ongoing changes in the region. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, the economic outlook is broadly positive. Exports and remittances--key growth drivers in 2010--are continuing to grow solidly, helping the recovery gain firm momentum. At the same time, uncertainties over the robustness of the global recovery constitute a downside risk to the growth outlook. Key challenges facing the region over the medium term are to create jobs and foster high and inclusive growth.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1513514008 Total Pages :75 pages Book Rating :4.5/5 (135 download)
Book Synopsis Regional Economic Outlook, October 2019, Middle East and Central Asia by : International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Download or read book Regional Economic Outlook, October 2019, Middle East and Central Asia written by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-11-06 with total page 75 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Growth in the near term remains subdued for oil exporters in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) region, amid volatile oil prices, precarious global growth, elevated fiscal vulnerabilities, and heightened geopolitical tensions. In addition, declining productivity is dampening medium-term growth prospects. To reduce dependence on oil prices and pave the way for more sustainable growth, fiscal consolidation needs to resume, underpinned by improved medium-term fiscal frameworks. In parallel, structural reforms and further financial sector development would boost foreign direct investment (FDI) and domestic private investment and foster diversification, thus contributing to improved productivity and potential growth.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 : Total Pages :12 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (2 download)
Book Synopsis Regional Economic Outlook Update: Middle East and Central Asia, January 2024 by : International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Download or read book Regional Economic Outlook Update: Middle East and Central Asia, January 2024 written by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-01-31 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The conflict in Gaza and Israel is yet another shock to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. It is causing immense human suffering and exacerbating an already challenging environment for neighboring economies and beyond. This Update covers economies in the MENA region and does not discuss developments in Israel. It discusses the updated outlook for the region, risks, and policy recommendations.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 : Total Pages :74 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (2 download)
Book Synopsis Gulf Cooperation Council: Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries by : International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Download or read book Gulf Cooperation Council: Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries written by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-12-14 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The GCC region’s non-hydrocarbon growth momentum remains strong, driven by higher domestic demand, increased gross capital inflows, and reform implementation. Oil production – which depends on OPEC+ decisions – will be subdued in the near term. Inflation is contained and current account surpluses are high. Fiscal balances remain healthy, supported by fiscal reforms and high oil prices. The primary non-oil deficits are expected to decrease to 24 percent of GDP by 2028, with higher non-oil revenue reflecting sustained fiscal and structural reforms and contained expenditures. High global uncertainty is weighing on the outlook.
Book Synopsis Global Waves of Debt by : M. Ayhan Kose
Download or read book Global Waves of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1498382525 Total Pages :60 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis Algeria by : International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Download or read book Algeria written by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-12-11 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic activity in Algeria has picked up in 2014, with real GDP growth projected to reach 4 percent following 2.8 percent growth in 2013. The hydrocarbon sector is expected to expand for the first time in eight years, while nonhydrocarbon growth remains supportive. Inflation has decelerated sharply to 2.1 percent, thanks in part to tighter monetary policy. The fiscal deficit is expected to widen to more than 7 percent owing to lower hydrocarbon revenue, a sharp increase in capital expenditure, and continued high current spending. Fiscal savings are expected to decline for the second consecutive year.
Book Synopsis Subsidy Reform in the Middle East and North Africa by : Mr.Carlo A. Sdralevich
Download or read book Subsidy Reform in the Middle East and North Africa written by Mr.Carlo A. Sdralevich and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-07-09 with total page 130 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries price subsidies are common, especially on food and fuels. However, these are neither well targeted nor cost effective as a social protection tool, often benefiting mainly the better off instead of the poor and vulnerable. This paper explores the challenges of replacing generalized price subsidies with more equitable social safety net instruments, including the short-term inflationary effects, and describes the features of successful subsidy reforms.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :148434961X Total Pages :84 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (843 download)
Book Synopsis Islamic Republic of Mauritania by : International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Download or read book Islamic Republic of Mauritania written by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-02-12 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: KEY ISSUES Context. Mauritania’s economy has benefited from macroeconomic stability and high growth in the context of contained inflation, responsible macro-policies, high iron ore prices and scaled-up public investment. However, economic growth has not translated into broadly improved living standards and is being hit by a sharp decline in iron ore prices. Outlook and Risks. Although the outlook remains favorable, it hinges heavily on stabilizing iron ore prices and expanding mining capacity. Downside risks to the outlook dominate because iron ore prices may decline further in response to excess supply in the global market. Key Policy Recommendations. With high risk of debt distress and deteriorating terms of trade, Mauritania’s fiscal policy needs to remain focused on consolidation to support fiscal sustainability. Over the medium term, a fiscal framework with a full-fledged fiscal rule will help prevent the boom–bust cycles that ensue from volatility in natural resource revenue, and with strengthened governance in managing mining wealth. The central bank should take advantage of the low-inflation environment to strengthen monetary policy formulation, gradually liberalize the foreign exchange market, and introduce liquidity support and banking resolution frameworks. The implementation of the recent FSAP recommendations should be pursued to enhance the stability of the financial sector stability. Economic diversification and inclusive growth are the foremost medium-term challenges. The authorities should accelerate structural reforms needed to raise Mauritania’s potential growth, create jobs, and improve living standards for all Mauritanians. Article VIII. A comprehensive analysis of the foreign exchange market identified exchange restrictions and multiple currency practices (MCPs) subject to Fund approval under Article VIII. Effective November 20, 2013, the exchange rate regime is classified as “stabilized” arrangement.
