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Exploring The Concept Of Climate Surprises
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Book Synopsis Exploring the Concept of Climate Surprises by : M. H. Glantz
Download or read book Exploring the Concept of Climate Surprises written by M. H. Glantz and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 100 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Examines the concept of climate surprise & its implications for environmental policymaking. This report examines the literature of surprise in many aspects of human society: psychology military, medicine, humor, agriculture, etc. Draws together various ways to consider the concept of surprise & examines different taxonomies of surprise that have been proposed. Surprise is a subject concept, triggered by such factors as prior experience, belief system, & level of education. How policymakers have reacted to specific instance of climate change or climate surprise in the past is considered. Discusses techniques used in current assessment models & how climate surprise might be included in future models.
Book Synopsis Exploring the Concept of Climate Surprises. A Review of the Literature on the Concept of Surprise and how it is Related to Climate Change by :
Download or read book Exploring the Concept of Climate Surprises. A Review of the Literature on the Concept of Surprise and how it is Related to Climate Change written by and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 90 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report examines the concept of climate surprise and its implications for environmental policymaking. Although most integrated assessment models of climate change deal with average values of change, it is usually the extreme events or surprises that cause the most damage to human health and property. Current models do not help the policymaker decide how to deal with climate surprises. This report examines the literature of surprise in many aspects of human society: psychology, military, health care, humor, agriculture, etc. It draws together various ways to consider the concept of surprise and examines different taxonomies of surprise that have been proposed. In many ways, surprise is revealed to be a subjective concept, triggered by such factors as prior experience, belief system, and level of education. How policymakers have reacted to specific instances of climate change or climate surprise in the past is considered, particularly with regard to the choices they made between proactive and reactive measures. Finally, the report discusses techniques used in the current generation of assessment models and makes suggestions as to how climate surprises might be included in future models. The report concludes that some kinds of surprises are simply unpredictable, but there are several types that could in some way be anticipated and assessed, and their negative effects forestalled.
Book Synopsis Abrupt Climate Change by : National Research Council
Download or read book Abrupt Climate Change written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2002-04-23 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The climate record for the past 100,000 years clearly indicates that the climate system has undergone periodic-and often extreme-shifts, sometimes in as little as a decade or less. The causes of abrupt climate changes have not been clearly established, but the triggering of events is likely to be the result of multiple natural processes. Abrupt climate changes of the magnitude seen in the past would have far-reaching implications for human society and ecosystems, including major impacts on energy consumption and water supply demands. Could such a change happen again? Are human activities exacerbating the likelihood of abrupt climate change? What are the potential societal consequences of such a change? Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises looks at the current scientific evidence and theoretical understanding to describe what is currently known about abrupt climate change, including patterns and magnitudes, mechanisms, and probability of occurrence. It identifies critical knowledge gaps concerning the potential for future abrupt changes, including those aspects of change most important to society and economies, and outlines a research strategy to close those gaps. Based on the best and most current research available, this book surveys the history of climate change and makes a series of specific recommendations for the future.
Book Synopsis Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change by : National Research Council
Download or read book Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-12-31 with total page 281 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate is changing, forced out of the range of the past million years by levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases not seen in the Earth's atmosphere for a very, very long time. Lacking action by the world's nations, it is clear that the planet will be warmer, sea level will rise, and patterns of rainfall will change. But the future is also partly uncertain-there is considerable uncertainty about how we will arrive at that different climate. Will the changes be gradual, allowing natural systems and societal infrastructure to adjust in a timely fashion? Or will some of the changes be more abrupt, crossing some threshold or "tipping point" to change so fast that the time between when a problem is recognized and when action is required shrinks to the point where orderly adaptation is not possible? Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change is an updated look at the issue of abrupt climate change and its potential impacts. This study differs from previous treatments of abrupt changes by focusing on abrupt climate changes and also abrupt climate impacts that have the potential to severely affect the physical climate system, natural systems, or human systems, often affecting multiple interconnected areas of concern. The primary timescale of concern is years to decades. A key characteristic of these changes is that they can come faster than expected, planned, or budgeted for, forcing more reactive, rather than proactive, modes of behavior. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change summarizes the state of our knowledge about potential abrupt changes and abrupt climate impacts and categorizes changes that are already occurring, have a high probability of occurrence, or are unlikely to occur. Because of the substantial risks to society and nature posed by abrupt changes, this report recommends the development of an Abrupt Change Early Warning System that would allow for the prediction and possible mitigation of such changes before their societal impacts are severe. Identifying key vulnerabilities can help guide efforts to increase resiliency and avoid large damages from abrupt change in the climate system, or in abrupt impacts of gradual changes in the climate system, and facilitate more informed decisions on the proper balance between mitigation and adaptation. Although there is still much to learn about abrupt climate change and abrupt climate impacts, to willfully ignore the threat of abrupt change could lead to more costs, loss of life, suffering, and environmental degradation. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change makes the case that the time is here to be serious about the threat of tipping points so as to better anticipate and prepare ourselves for the inevitable surprises.
Author :Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation (UnitedStates Senate), Washington, DC. Subcommittee on Science,Technology, andSpace Publisher : ISBN 13 : Total Pages :152 pages Book Rating :4.:/5 (476 download)
Book Synopsis Climate Surprises by : Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation (UnitedStates Senate), Washington, DC. Subcommittee on Science,Technology, andSpace
Download or read book Climate Surprises written by Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation (UnitedStates Senate), Washington, DC. Subcommittee on Science,Technology, andSpace and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Plants and Climate Change by : Jelte Rozema
Download or read book Plants and Climate Change written by Jelte Rozema and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-01-19 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses on how climate affects or affected the biosphere and vice versa both in the present and in the past. The chapters describe how ecosystems from the Antarctic and Arctic, and from other latitudes, respond to global climate change. The papers highlight plant responses to atmospheric CO2 increase, to global warming and to increased ultraviolet-B radiation as a result of stratospheric ozone depletion.
Book Synopsis Climate and Social Stress by : National Research Council
Download or read book Climate and Social Stress written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-02-14 with total page 253 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change can reasonably be expected to increase the frequency and intensity of a variety of potentially disruptive environmental events-slowly at first, but then more quickly. It is prudent to expect to be surprised by the way in which these events may cascade, or have far-reaching effects. During the coming decade, certain climate-related events will produce consequences that exceed the capacity of the affected societies or global systems to manage; these may have global security implications. Although focused on events outside the United States, Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis recommends a range of research and policy actions to create a whole-of-government approach to increasing understanding of complex and contingent connections between climate and security, and to inform choices about adapting to and reducing vulnerability to climate change.
Book Synopsis Sudden and Disruptive Climate Change by : Michael C. MacCracken
Download or read book Sudden and Disruptive Climate Change written by Michael C. MacCracken and published by Earthscan. This book was released on 2008 with total page 345 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: First Published in 2007. Routledge is an imprint of Taylor & Francis, an informa company.
Book Synopsis Advancing the Science of Climate Change by : National Research Council
Download or read book Advancing the Science of Climate Change written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2011-01-10 with total page 526 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for-and in many cases is already affecting-a broad range of human and natural systems. The compelling case for these conclusions is provided in Advancing the Science of Climate Change, part of a congressionally requested suite of studies known as America's Climate Choices. While noting that there is always more to learn and that the scientific process is never closed, the book shows that hypotheses about climate change are supported by multiple lines of evidence and have stood firm in the face of serious debate and careful evaluation of alternative explanations. As decision makers respond to these risks, the nation's scientific enterprise can contribute through research that improves understanding of the causes and consequences of climate change and also is useful to decision makers at the local, regional, national, and international levels. The book identifies decisions being made in 12 sectors, ranging from agriculture to transportation, to identify decisions being made in response to climate change. Advancing the Science of Climate Change calls for a single federal entity or program to coordinate a national, multidisciplinary research effort aimed at improving both understanding and responses to climate change. Seven cross-cutting research themes are identified to support this scientific enterprise. In addition, leaders of federal climate research should redouble efforts to deploy a comprehensive climate observing system, improve climate models and other analytical tools, invest in human capital, and improve linkages between research and decisions by forming partnerships with action-oriented programs.
Book Synopsis Climate Change: A Very Short Introduction by : Mark Maslin
Download or read book Climate Change: A Very Short Introduction written by Mark Maslin and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2014-10-23 with total page 217 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change is still, arguably, the most critical and controversial issue facing the world in the twenty-first century. Previously published as Global Warming: A Very Short Introduction, the new edition is now Climate Change: A Very Short introduction, reflecting an important change in the terminology of the last decade. In the third edition, Mark Maslin includes crucial updates from the last few years, including the results of the 2013 IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, the effects of ocean acidification, and the impact of changes to global population and health. Exploring all of the key topics in the debate, Maslin makes sense of the complexities climate change involves, from political and social issues to environmental and scientific. Looking at its predicated impacts, he explores all of the controversies, and also explains the various proposed solutions. ABOUT THE SERIES: The Very Short Introductions series from Oxford University Press contains hundreds of titles in almost every subject area. These pocket-sized books are the perfect way to get ahead in a new subject quickly. Our expert authors combine facts, analysis, perspective, new ideas, and enthusiasm to make interesting and challenging topics highly readable.
Book Synopsis Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making by : M. Granger Morgan
Download or read book Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making written by M. Granger Morgan and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2009-05 with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report is one of 21 Synthesis and Assessment Products commissioned by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program as part of an effort to integrate fed. research on climate change and to facilitate a nat. understanding of the critical elements of climate change. Most of these reports are focused on specific substantive issues in climate science, impacts and related topics. In contrast, the focus of this report is methodological. This report provides a tutorial to the climate analysis and decision-making communities on current best practice in describing and analyzing uncertainty in climate-related problems. While the language is semi-technical, much of it should also be accessible to non-expert readers who are comfortable with the treatment of technical topics. Illus.
Author :United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation. Subcommittee on Science, Technology, and Space Publisher : ISBN 13 : Total Pages :0 pages Book Rating :4.:/5 (134 download)
Book Synopsis Climate Surprises by : United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation. Subcommittee on Science, Technology, and Space
Download or read book Climate Surprises written by United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation. Subcommittee on Science, Technology, and Space and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Discovery of Global Warming by : Spencer R. Weart
Download or read book The Discovery of Global Warming written by Spencer R. Weart and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 2003 with total page 241 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 2001 a panel representing virtually all the world's governments and climate scientists announced that they had reached a consensus: the world was warming at a rate without precedent during at least the last ten millennia, and that warming was caused by the buildup of greenhouse gases from human activity. The consensus itself was at least a century in the making. The story of how scientists reached their conclusion--by way of unexpected twists and turns and in the face of formidable intellectual, financial, and political obstacles--is told for the first time in The Discovery of Global Warming. Spencer R. Weart lucidly explains the emerging science, introduces us to the major players, and shows us how the Earth's irreducibly complicated climate system was mirrored by the global scientific community that studied it. Unlike familiar tales of Science Triumphant, this book portrays scientists working on bits and pieces of a topic so complex that they could never achieve full certainty--yet so important to human survival that provisional answers were essential. Weart unsparingly depicts the conflicts and mistakes, and how they sometimes led to fruitful results. His book reminds us that scientists do not work in isolation, but interact in crucial ways with the political system and with the general public. The book not only reveals the history of global warming, but also analyzes the nature of modern scientific work as it confronts the most difficult questions about the Earth's future. Table of Contents: Preface 1. How Could Climate Change? 2. Discovering a Possibility 3. A Delicate System 4. A Visible Threat 5. Public Warnings 6. The Erratic Beast 7. Breaking into Politics 8. The Discovery Confirmed Reflections Milestones Notes Further Reading Index Reviews of this book: A soberly written synthesis of science and politics. --Gilbert Taylor, Booklist Reviews of this book: Charting the evolution and confirmation of the theory [of global warming], Spencer R. Weart, director of the Center for the History of Physics of the American Institute of Physics, dissects the interwoven threads of research and reveals the political and societal subtexts that colored scientists' views and the public reception their work received. --Andrew C. Revkin, New York Times Book Review Reviews of this book: It took a century for scientists to agree that gases produced by human activity were causing the world to warm up. Now, in an engaging book that reads like a detective story, physicist Weart reports the history of global warming theory, including the internal conflicts plaguing the research community and the role government has had in promoting climate studies. --Publishers Weekly Reviews of this book: It is almost two centuries since the French mathematician Jean Baptiste Fourier discovered that the Earth was far warmer than it had any right to be, given its distance from the Sun...Spencer Weart's book about how Fourier's initially inconsequential discovery finally triggered urgent debate about the future habitability of the Earth is lucid, painstaking and commendably brief, packing everything into 200 pages. --Fred Pearce, The Independent Reviews of this book: [The Discovery of Global Warming] is a well-written, well-researched and well-balanced account of the issues involved...This is not a sermon for the faithful, or verses from Revelation for the evangelicals, but a serious summary for those who like reasoned argument. Read it--and be converted. --John Emsley, Times Literary Supplement Reviews of this book: This is a terrific book...Perhaps the finest compliment I could give this book is to report that I intend to use it instead of my own book...for my climate class. The Discovery of Global Warming is more up-to-date, better balanced historically, beautifully written and, not least important, short and to the point. I think the [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] needs to enlist a few good historians like Weart for its next assessment. --Stephen H. Schneider, Nature Reviews of this book: This short, well-written book by a science historian at the American Institute of Physics adds a serious voice to the overheated debate about global warming and would serve as a great starting point for anyone who wants to better understand the issue. --Maureen Christie, American Scientist Reviews of this book: I was very pleasantly surprised to find that Spencer Weart's account provides much valuable and interesting material about how the discipline developed--not just from the perspective of climate science but also within the context of the field's relation to other scientific disciplines, the media, political trends, and even 20th-century history (particularly the Cold War). In addition, Weart has done a valuable service by recording for posterity background information on some of the key discoveries and historical figures who contributed to our present understanding of the global warming problem. --Thomas J. Crowley, Science Reviews of this book: Weart has done us all a service by bringing the discovery of global warming into a short, compendious and persuasive book for a general readership. He is especially strong on the early days and the scientific background. --Crispin Tickell, Times Higher Education Supplement A Capricious Beast Ever since the days when he had trudged around fossil lake basins in Nevada for his doctoral thesis, Wally Broecker had been interested in sudden climate shifts. The reported sudden jumps of CO2 in Greenland ice cores stimulated him to put this interest into conjunction with his oceanographic interests. The result was a surprising and important calculation. The key was what Broecker later described as a "great conveyor belt'"of seawater carrying heat northward. . . . The energy carried to the neighborhood of Iceland was "staggering," Broecker realized, nearly a third as much as the Sun sheds upon the entire North Atlantic. If something were to shut down the conveyor, climate would change across much of the Northern Hemisphere' There was reason to believe a shutdown could happen swiftly. In many regions the consequences for climate would be spectacular. Broecker was foremost in taking this disagreeable news to the public. In 1987 he wrote that we had been treating the greenhouse effect as a 'cocktail hour curiosity,' but now 'we must view it as a threat to human beings and wildlife.' The climate system was a capricious beast, he said, and we were poking it with a sharp stick. I found the book enjoyable, thoughtful, and an excellent introduction to the history of what may be one of the most important subjects of the next one hundred years. --Clark Miller, University of Wisconsin The Discovery of Global Warming raises important scientific issues and topics and includes essential detail. Readers should be able to follow the discussion and emerge at the end with a good understanding of how scientists have developed a consensus on global warming, what it is, and what issues now face human society. --Thomas R. Dunlap, Texas A&M University
Author :United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation. Subcommittee on Science, Technology, and Space Publisher : ISBN 13 : Total Pages :160 pages Book Rating :4.:/5 (51 download)
Book Synopsis Climate Surprises by : United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation. Subcommittee on Science, Technology, and Space
Download or read book Climate Surprises written by United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation. Subcommittee on Science, Technology, and Space and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Abrupt Climate Change written by and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 4 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Climate written by Igor Linkov and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-08-26 with total page 591 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rising sea levels and altered weather patterns are expected to significantly alter coastal and inland environments for humans, infrastructure and ecosystems. Potential land-use changes and population increases, coupled with uncertain predictions for sea level rise and storm frequency/intensity represent a significant planning challenge. While efforts to mitigate climate change continue, plans must be made to adapt to the risks that climate change poses to humans, infrastructure, and ecosystems alike. This book addresses integrated environmental assessment and management as part of the nexus of climate change adaptation. Risk analysis has emerged as a useful approach to guide assessment, communication and management of security risks. However, with respect to climate change, an integrated, multi-criteria, multi-hazard, risk-informed decision framework is desirable for evaluating adaptation strategies. The papers in Part 1 summarize societal and political needs for climate change adaptation. Part 2 includes papers summarizing the state of the art in climate change adaptation. Three further parts cover: the process of change in coastal regions, in inland regions, and, finally, the potential challenges to homeland security for national governments. Each of these parts reviews achievements, identifies gaps in current knowledge, and suggests research priorities.
Book Synopsis Don't Sell Your Coat by : Harold Ambler
Download or read book Don't Sell Your Coat written by Harold Ambler and published by . This book was released on 2011-12 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Not very long ago, scientists, politicians, and journalists were seemingly unanimous: Global warming had already damaged nature, and things were only going to get worse. Snow was rapidly becoming a thing of the past; summers were becoming hotter; storms were becoming more violent; droughts and floods were becoming more intense. This was a nightmare. In the end, though, little of this was true. And the whole idea of climate change was based on a lie: that weather and climate used to be nice. They weren't. As for our own time, snow cover is increasing; summertime heating is negligible; hurricanes are diminishing; droughts and floods both used to be worse. The real nightmare is the politics suffusing modern climate science and the effects this is having on every resident of planet Earth. Don't Sell Your Coat, besides bearing a suggestion for its readers, brings to the public the scientific argument that global cooling is as likely a scenario for the next few decades as any of the nightmares of Al Gore. It also allows non-scientists to enter the debate about climate change armed with facts and to have a sense of humor while they do so.
