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Expert Judgement And Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis
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Book Synopsis Workshop on Expert Judgement and Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis (COSYMA), June 21-24, 1999, Avifauna, Alphen A/d Rijn, the Netherlands by :
Download or read book Workshop on Expert Judgement and Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis (COSYMA), June 21-24, 1999, Avifauna, Alphen A/d Rijn, the Netherlands written by and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 135 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Expert Judgement and Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis by : L. H. J. Goossens
Download or read book Expert Judgement and Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis written by L. H. J. Goossens and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 102 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis: Main report by :
Download or read book Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis: Main report written by and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 438 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Methods for CEC/USNRC Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis of Dispersion and Deposition by :
Download or read book Methods for CEC/USNRC Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis of Dispersion and Deposition written by and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis by : Anca M. Hanea
Download or read book Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis written by Anca M. Hanea and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-02-19 with total page 503 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book pulls together many perspectives on the theory, methods and practice of drawing judgments from panels of experts in assessing risks and making decisions in complex circumstances. The book is divided into four parts: Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) current research fronts; the contributions of Roger Cooke and the Classical Model he developed; process, procedures and education; and applications. After an Introduction by the Editors, the first part presents chapters on expert elicitation of parameters of multinomial models; the advantages of using performance weighting by advancing the “random expert” hypothesis; expert elicitation for specific graphical models; modelling dependencies between experts’ assessments within a Bayesian framework; preventive maintenance optimization in a Bayesian framework; eliciting life time distributions to parametrize a Dirichlet process; and on an adversarial risk analysis approach for structured expert judgment studies. The second part includes Roger Cooke’s oration from 1995 on taking up his chair at Delft University of Technology; one of the editors reflections on the early decade of the Classical Model development and use; a current overview of the theory of the Classical Model, providing a deep and comprehensive perspective on its foundations and its application; and an interview with Roger Cooke. The third part starts with an interview with Professor Dame Anne Glover, who served as the Chief Scientific Advisor to the President of the European Commission. It then presents chapters on the characteristics of good elicitations by reviewing those advocated and applied; the design and development of a training course for SEJ; and on specific experiences with SEJ protocols with the intention of presenting the challenges and insights collected during these journeys. Finally, the fourth (and largest) part begins with some reflections from Willy Aspinall on his many experiences in applying the Classical Model in several application domains; it continues with related reflections on imperfect elicitations; and then it presents chapters with applications on medicines policy and management, supply chain cyber risk management, geo-political risks, terrorism and the risks facing businesses looking to internationalise.
Book Synopsis Methods for CEC USNRC accident consequence uncertainty analysis of dispersion and deposition by : R. M. Cooke
Download or read book Methods for CEC USNRC accident consequence uncertainty analysis of dispersion and deposition written by R. M. Cooke and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 209 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Methodology and Processing Techniques by : European Communities
Download or read book Methodology and Processing Techniques written by European Communities and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A study to perform an uncertainty analysis of the European accident consequence assessment system, Cosyma, has been carried out under contract to the European Commission. The study involved a series of analysis of the uncertainty in different sections of the system, followed by a final analysis of the uncertainty in the whole system. The overall aims of the study can be summarised as follows. 1. To formulate a state-of-the-art expert judgement methodology which is capable of finding broad acceptance. 2. To apply the methodology to estimate uncertainties associated with the predictions of the probabilistic accident consequence assessment system, Cosyma. 3. To provide an input to identifying future R & D priorities. Uncertainty analysis involves specifying probability distributions for the values of each of the parameters involved, sampling sets of values from those distributions and propagating them through the model to derive information on the uncertainty in the model prediction. Those parameters, whose uncertainties make major contributions to the overall uncertainty, can then be identified using correlation coefficients between the input values and the model outputs.
Book Synopsis Assessment and Management of Environmental Risks by : Igor Linkov
Download or read book Assessment and Management of Environmental Risks written by Igor Linkov and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 451 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Managing environmental contamination requires decision makers to weigh eXlstmg risks against the potential effects of implementing environmental policies - considering both the benefits and disruptions that may result from different actions. The NATO Advanced Research Workshop in Lisbon was an important step in the development and application of cost efficient methods of risk assessment especiaIly within the constraints of a budget. The goal of the workshop was to evaluate the potential for risk assessment to serve as a unified and unifying technique in addressing a wide range of environmental problems. Papers presented in this book discuss issues ranging from specific and local studies (specific site, ecosystem, pollutant) to global decision and management frameworks (watersheds, regions, integration of multiple poIlutants and stressors); they develop a range of approaches starting from specific methods to widely applied public policies (Figure 1). The papers show that the use of risk assessment can provide the scientific basis for environmentaIly sound and cost-efficient policies, strategies, and solutions to our environmental chaIlenges. The organization of the Proceedings reflects sessions and discussions during the workshop. The papers in the introductory Chapter summarize the positions of Drs. Glenn Suter (EPA) and Jim Wilson (Resources for the Future) regarding whether the use of often-expensive risk assessments in developing countries can be justified, given evolving regulatory institutions and limited resources.
Book Synopsis Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis by :
Download or read book Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis written by and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 102 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the risks presented by nuclear installations based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) began a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of the joint effort was to develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the input variables of the codes. Expert elicitation was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for the selected consequence parameters. The study was formulated jointly and was limited to the current code models and to physical quantities that could be measured in experiments. Experts developed their distributions independently. To validate the distributions generated for the wet deposition input variables, samples were taken from these distributions and propagated through the wet deposition code model. Resulting distributions closely replicated the aggregated elicited wet deposition distributions. To validate the distributions generated for the dispersion code input variables, samples from the distributions and propagated through the Gaussian plume model (GPM) implemented in the MACCS and COSYMA codes. Project teams from the NRC and CEC cooperated successfully to develop and implement a unified process for the elaboration of uncertainty distributions on consequence code input parameters. Formal expert judgment elicitation proved valuable for synthesizing the best available information. Distributions on measurable atmospheric dispersion and deposition parameters were successfully elicited from experts involved in the many phenomenological areas of consequence analysis. This volume is the first of a three-volume document describing the project.
Book Synopsis Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis: Dispersion and Deposition Uncertainty Assessment, Appendices A and B. by :
Download or read book Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis: Dispersion and Deposition Uncertainty Assessment, Appendices A and B. written by and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, completed in 1990, estimate the risks presented by nuclear installations based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) began a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The objective was to develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the input variables of the codes. Expert elicitation, developed independently, was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for the selected consequence parameters. The study was formulated jointly and was limited to the current code models and to physical quantities that could be measured in experiments. To validate the distributions generated for the wet deposition input variables, samples were taken from these distributions and propagated through the wet deposition code model along with the Gaussian plume model (GPM) implemented in the MACCS and COSYMA codes. Resulting distributions closely replicated the aggregated elicited wet deposition distributions. Project teams from the NRC and CEC cooperated successfully to develop and implement a unified process for the elaboration of uncertainty distributions on consequence code input parameters. Formal expert judgment elicitation proved valuable for synthesizing the best available information. Distributions on measurable atmospheric dispersion and deposition parameters were successfully elicited from experts involved in the many phenomenological areas of consequence analysis. This volume is the second of a three-volume document describing the project and contains two appendices describing the rationales for the dispersion and deposition data along with short biographies of the 16 experts who participated in the project.
Book Synopsis Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis -- Late Health Effects Uncertain Assessment. Volume 2: Appendices by :
Download or read book Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis -- Late Health Effects Uncertain Assessment. Volume 2: Appendices written by and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA late health effects models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the expert panel on late health effects, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.
Book Synopsis Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Assessment Using COSYMA by : European Communities
Download or read book Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Assessment Using COSYMA written by European Communities and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A study to perform an uncertainty analysis of the European accident consequence assessment system, Cosyma, has been carried out under contract to the European Commission. The study involved a series of analysis of the uncertainty in different sections of the system, followed by a final analysis of the uncertainty in the whole system. The overall aims of the study can be summarised as: - to formulate a state-of-the-art expert judgment methodology which is capable of finding broad acceptance; - to apply the methodology to estimate uncertainties associated with the predictions of the probabilistic accident consequence system, Cosyma; - to provide an input to identifying future research and development priorities. Uncertainties analysis involves specifying probability distributions for the values of each of the parameters involved, sampling sets of values from those distributions and propagating them through the model to derive information on the uncertainty in the model prediction. Those parameters whose uncertainties make major contributions to the overall uncertainty can then be identified using correlation coefficients between the input values and the model outputs.
Book Synopsis Supplement zu denen ... volum. der Cellischen Landes- und Policey-Ordnung ... by :
Download or read book Supplement zu denen ... volum. der Cellischen Landes- und Policey-Ordnung ... written by and published by . This book was released on with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Safety and Reliability by : S. Lydersen
Download or read book Safety and Reliability written by S. Lydersen and published by Taylor & Francis US. This book was released on 1998-03 with total page 768 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Examining the effect of age, environment, design and maintenance, these papers discuss how legislation and regulation in the management of systems deals with the topic of safety and reliability.
Book Synopsis Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis by :
Download or read book Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis written by and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 93 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, completed in 1990, estimate the risks presented by nuclear installations based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) began a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The objective was to develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the input variables of the codes. Expert elicitation, developed independently, was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for the selected consequence parameters. The study was formulated jointly and was limited to the current code models and to physical quantities that could be measured in experiments. To validate the distributions generated for the wet deposition input variables, samples were taken from these distributions and propagated through the wet deposition code model along with the Gaussian plume model (GPM) implemented in the MACCS and COSYMA codes. Resulting distributions closely replicated the aggregated elicited wet deposition distributions. Project teams from the NRC and CEC cooperated successfully to develop and implement a unified process for the elaboration of uncertainty distributions on consequence code input parameters. Formal expert judgment elicitation proved valuable for synthesizing the best available information. Distributions on measurable atmospheric dispersion and deposition parameters were successfully elicited from experts involved in the many phenomenological areas of consequence analysis. This volume is the third of a three-volume document describing the project and contains descriptions of the probability assessment principles; the expert identification and selection process; the weighting methods used; the inverse modeling methods; case structures; and summaries of the consequence codes.
Book Synopsis The Argumentative Turn in Policy Analysis by : Sven Ove Hansson
Download or read book The Argumentative Turn in Policy Analysis written by Sven Ove Hansson and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-05-26 with total page 354 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes argumentative tools and strategies that can be used to guide policy decisions under conditions of great uncertainty. Contributing authors explore methods from philosophical analysis and in particular argumentation analysis, showing how it can be used to systematize discussions about policy issues involving great uncertainty. The first part of the work explores how to deal in a systematic way with decision-making when there may be plural perspectives on the decision problem, along with unknown consequences of what we do. Readers will see how argumentation tools can be used for prioritizing among uncertain dangers, for determining how decisions should be framed, for choosing a suitable time frame for a decision, and for systematically choosing among different decision options. Case studies are presented in the second part of the book, showing argumentation in practice in the areas of climate geoengineering, water governance, synthetic biology, nuclear waste, and financial markets. In one example, argumentation analysis is applied to proposals to solve the climate problem with various technological manipulations of the natural climate system, such as massive dispersion of reflective aerosols into the stratosphere. Even after a thorough investigation of such a proposal, doubt remains as to whether all the potential risks have been identified. In such discussions, conventional risk analysis does not have much to contribute since it presupposes that the risks have been identified, whereas the argumentative approach to uncertainty management can be used to systematize discussions.
Book Synopsis Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis -- Early Health Effects Uncertainty Assessment. Volume 1 by :
Download or read book Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis -- Early Health Effects Uncertainty Assessment. Volume 1 written by and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA early health effects models.
