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Author : P. de Grauwe
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 1349172863
Total Pages : 299 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (491 download)
Download or read book Exchange Rates in Multicountry Econometric Models written by P. de Grauwe and published by Springer. This book was released on 1983-12-01 with total page 299 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Paul de Grauwe
Publisher : Palgrave Macmillan
ISBN 13 : 9780312274023
Total Pages : 287 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (74 download)
Download or read book Exchange Rates in Multicountry Econometric Models written by Paul de Grauwe and published by Palgrave Macmillan. This book was released on 1983 with total page 287 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Francis X. Diebold
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642456413
Total Pages : 153 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (424 download)
Download or read book Empirical Modeling of Exchange Rate Dynamics written by Francis X. Diebold and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 153 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Structural exchange rate modeling has proven extremely difficult during the recent post-1973 float. The disappointment climaxed with the papers of Meese and Rogoff (1983a, 1983b), who showed that a "naive" random walk model distinctly dominated received theoretical models in terms of predictive performance for the major dollar spot rates. One purpose of this monograph is to seek the reasons for this failure by exploring the temporal behavior of seven major dollar exchange rates using nonstructural time-series methods. The Meese-Rogoff finding does not mean that exchange rates evolve as random walks; rather it simply means that the random walk is a better stochastic approximation than any of their other candidate models. In this monograph, we use optimal model specification techniques, including formal unit root tests which allow for trend, and find that all of the exchange rates studied do in fact evolve as random walks or random walks with drift (to a very close approximation). This result is consistent with efficient asset markets, and provides an explanation for the Meese-Rogoff results. Far more subtle forces are at work, however, which lead to interesting econometric problems and have implications for the measurement of exchange rate volatility and moment structure. It is shown that all exchange rates display substantial conditional heteroskedasticity. A particularly reasonable parameterization of this conditional heteroskedasticity, which captures the observed clustering of prediction error variances, is developed in Chapter 2.
Author : Anthonie Knoester
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 50 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)
Download or read book Effects of Exchange Rate Changes in a Multi-country Model and the Mismatch Phenomenon written by Anthonie Knoester and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Lucio Sarno
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139435043
Total Pages : 334 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (394 download)
Download or read book The Economics of Exchange Rates written by Lucio Sarno and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2003-01-09 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the last few decades exchange rate economics has seen a number of developments, with substantial contributions to both the theory and empirics of exchange rate determination. Important developments in econometrics and the increasingly large availability of high-quality data have also been responsible for stimulating the large amount of empirical work on exchange rates in this period. Nonetheless, while our understanding of exchange rates has significantly improved, a number of challenges and open questions remain in the exchange rate debate, enhanced by events including the launch of the Euro and the large number of recent currency crises. This volume provides a selective coverage of the literature on exchange rates, focusing on developments from within the last fifteen years. Clear explanations of theories are offered, alongside an appraisal of the literature and suggestions for further research and analysis.
Author : Arif Orçun Söylemez
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1000357317
Total Pages : 83 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (3 download)
Download or read book Foreign Exchange Rates written by Arif Orçun Söylemez and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2021-02-07 with total page 83 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Predicting foreign exchange rates has presented a long-standing challenge for economists. However, the recent advances in computational techniques, statistical methods, newer datasets on emerging market currencies, etc., offer some hope. While we are still unable to beat a driftless random walk model, there has been serious progress in the field. This book provides an in-depth assessment of the use of novel statistical approaches and machine learning tools in predicting foreign exchange rate movement. First, it offers a historical account of how exchange rate regimes have evolved over time, which is critical to understanding turning points in a historical time series. It then presents an overview of the previous attempts at modeling exchange rates, and how different methods fared during this process. At the core sections of the book, the author examines the time series characteristics of exchange rates and how contemporary statistics and machine learning can be useful in improving predictive power, compared to previous methods used. Exchange rate determination is an active research area, and this book will appeal to graduate-level students of international economics, international finance, open economy macroeconomics, and management. The book is written in a clear, engaging, and straightforward way, and will greatly improve access to this much-needed knowledge in the field.
Author : Ronald MacDonald
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1475729979
Total Pages : 226 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (757 download)
Download or read book Exchange Rate Modelling written by Ronald MacDonald and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-04-17 with total page 226 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Are foreign exchange markets efficient? Are fundamentals important for predicting exchange rate movements? What is the signal-to-ratio of high frequency exchange rate changes? Is it possible to define a measure of the equilibrium exchange rate that is useful from an assessment perspective? The book is a selective survey of current thinking on key topics in exchange rate economics, supplemented throughout by new empirical evidence. The focus is on the use of advanced econometric tools to find answers to these and other questions which are important to practitioners, policy-makers and academic economists. In addition, the book addresses more technical econometric considerations such as the importance of the choice between single-equation and system-wide approaches to modelling the exchange rate, and the reduced form versus structural equation problems. Readers will gain both a comprehensive overview of the way macroeconomists approach exchange rate modelling, and an understanding of how advanced techniques can help them explain and predict the behavior of this crucial economic variable.
Author : Mr.Mark P. Taylor
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451964390
Total Pages : 61 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (519 download)
Download or read book Exchange Rate Economics written by Mr.Mark P. Taylor and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1991-06-01 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We survey the literature on the two main views of exchange rate determination that have evolved since the early 1970s: the monetary approach to the exchange rate (in flex-price, sticky-price and real interest differential formulations) and the portfolio balance approach. We then go on to discuss the extant empirical evidence on these models and conclude by discussing how the future research strategy in the area of exchange rate determination is likely to develop. We also discuss the literature on foreign exchange market efficiency, on exchange rates and ‘news’ and on international parity conditions.
Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451921012
Total Pages : 91 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (519 download)
Download or read book MULTIMOD written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1988-03-04 with total page 91 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper describes a global model consisting of several industrial and developing country blocks built to analyze alternative economic policies in a medium-term context. The model, which has been used to construct medium-term scenarios for the World Economic Outlook, consists of aggregate demand and supply relationships, with endogenous determination of interest rates, prices, and exchange rates. Financing flows to developing countries depend on expectations of their ability to service debt. Expectations of interest rates, inflation, and exchange rates are modeled in a way that is consistent with the model’s solution, and budget constraints are imposed on governments.
Author : Peter B. Clark
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781451843477
Total Pages : 42 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (434 download)
Download or read book Robustness of Equilibrium Exchange Rate Calculations to Alternative Assumptions and Methodologies written by Peter B. Clark and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores a number of methodological issues that arise in the calculation of equilibrium exchange rates, which are identified in this paper as those real effective exchange rates consistent with macroeconomic equilibrium, i.e., internal and external balance. A partial equilibrium, comparative static analysis is presented and the methodology is applied to the break-up of the Bretton Woods exchange rate system. Then the dynamic interaction between the current account and the stock of net foreign assets is examined. Finally, the analysis uses a more general equilibrium approach by relying on simulations using MULTIMOD, a multicountry econometric model. The paper demonstrates the extent to which the equilibrium exchange rate calculations depend upon alternative assumptions regarding factors that affect internal and external balance. In addition, results obtained using the comparative static and dynamic macroeconomic approaches are compared.
Author : Ronald MacDonald
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9401144117
Total Pages : 353 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (11 download)
Download or read book Equilibrium Exchange Rates written by Ronald MacDonald and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 353 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How successful is PPP, and its extension in the monetary model, as a measure of the equilibrium exchange rate? What are the determinants and dynamics of equilibrium real exchange rates? How can misalignments be measured, and what are their causes? What are the effects of specific policies upon the equilibrium exchange rate? The answers to these questions are important to academic theorists, policymakers, international bankers and investment fund managers. This volume encompasses all of the competing views of equilibrium exchange rate determination, from PPP, through other reduced form models, to the macroeconomic balance approach. This volume is essentially empirical: what do we know about exchange rates? The different econometric and theoretical approaches taken by the various authors in this volume lead to mutually consistent conclusions. This consistency gives us confidence that significant progress has been made in understanding what are the fundamental determinants of exchange rates and what are the forces operating to bring them back in line with the fundamentals.
Author : Lucio Sarno
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521485845
Total Pages : 334 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (858 download)
Download or read book The Economics of Exchange Rates written by Lucio Sarno and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2002 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the last few decades exchange rate economics has seen a number of developments, with substantial contributions to both the theory and empirics of exchange rate determination. Important developments in econometrics and the increasingly large availability of high-quality data have also been responsible for stimulating the large amount of empirical work on exchange rates in this period. Nonetheless, while our understanding of exchange rates has significantly improved, a number of challenges and open questions remain in the exchange rate debate, enhanced by events including the launch of the Euro and the large number of recent currency crises. This volume provides a selective coverage of the literature on exchange rates, focusing on developments from within the last fifteen years. Clear explanations of theories are offered, alongside an appraisal of the literature and suggestions for further research and analysis.
Author : Richard T. Baillie
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521396905
Total Pages : 280 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (969 download)
Download or read book The Foreign Exchange Market written by Richard T. Baillie and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1989 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The flotation of exchange rates in the early 1970s saw a significant increase in the importance of foreign exchange markets and in the interest shown in them. Apart from the consequent institutional changes, this period also witnessed a revolution in macroeconomic analysis and finance theory based on the concept of rational expectations. This book provides an integrated approach to recent developments in the understanding of foreign exchange markets. It begins by charting the institutional background and looks at the recent history of movements in some of the major exchange rates. The theoretical sections focus on the economic and finance theory of the asset market approach, the macroeconomic models developed from this approach, and on interest rate parity theory. The empirical chapters draw on the authors' own research from a high quality set of exchange rate and interest rate data. The statistical properties of exchange rates are analysed; the relationship between spot and forward rates is examined; and the modelling and impact of new information on the forward and spot relationship is considered. The final chapter is devoted to the estimation and testing of exchange rate models.
Author : Mr.Bennett T. McCallum
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451846010
Total Pages : 24 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)
Download or read book Specification of Policy Rules and Performance Measures in Multicountry Simulation Studies written by Mr.Bennett T. McCallum and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1992-06-01 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Much recent analysis of international monetary and fiscal policy issues, such as the choice of an exchange-rate regime or the design of a policy coordination scheme, has been conducted by stochastic simulations with multicountry econometric models. In these studies, it has become standard practice to consider alternative policy rules of a particular form that calls for departures of a policy instrument, from some “baseline” reference path, that are proportional to deviations of a specified target variable from its own baseline path. The present paper argues, however, that this standard rule form is seriously defective for evaluating such issues because the implied rules (1) often fail to be operational and (2) have associated performance measures that can be misleading in important cases. An example is presented that concerns the international “assignment problem” of optimally pairing instruments with policy objectives.
Author : Peter Isard
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521466004
Total Pages : 298 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (66 download)
Download or read book Exchange Rate Economics written by Peter Isard and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1995-09-28 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes and evaluates the literature on exchange rate economics. It provides a wide-ranging survey, with background on the history of international monetary regimes and the institutional characteristics of foreign exchange markets, an overview of the development of conceptual and empirical models of exchange rate behavior, and perspectives on the key issues that policymakers confront in deciding whether, and how, to try to stabilize exchange rates. The treatment of most topics is reasonably compact, with extensive references to the literature for those desiring to pursue individual topics further. The level of exposition is relatively easy to comprehend; the historical and institutional material (part I) and the discussion of policy issues (part III) contain no equations or technical notation, while the chapters on models of exchange rate behavior (part II) are written at a level intelligible to first-year graduate students or advanced undergraduates. The book will enlighten both students and policymakers, and should also serve as a valuable reference for many research economists.
Author : Menzie David Chinn
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451962169
Total Pages : 33 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (519 download)
Download or read book Real Exchange Rate Levels, Productivity and Demand Shocks written by Menzie David Chinn and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-05-01 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate the long-run relationship between the real exchange rate, traded and nontraded productivity levels, and government spending for 14 OECD countries, using recently developed panel cointegration tests. The results indicate that under certain assumptions it is easier to detect cointegration in panel data than in the available time series; moreover, the rate of reversion to long-run equilibrium is estimated with greater precision. Using the model augmented by oil prices, we find that in 1991 (the last year productivity data are available) there is less overvaluation of the U.S. dollar than that implied by a naive version of purchasing power parity.
Author : Eric J. Pentecost
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 248 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)
Download or read book Exchange Rate Dynamics written by Eric J. Pentecost and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 1993 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work examines the development of the determinants of the exchange rate system since the mid-1970s. It scrutinises the main theoretical models of exchange rate determination and assesses their empirical validity drawn from recent econometric results (based on cointegration methodology).
