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Author : P. de Grauwe
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 1349172863
Total Pages : 299 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (491 download)
Download or read book Exchange Rates in Multicountry Econometric Models written by P. de Grauwe and published by Springer. This book was released on 1983-12-01 with total page 299 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Paul de Grauwe
Publisher : Palgrave Macmillan
ISBN 13 : 9780312274023
Total Pages : 287 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (74 download)
Download or read book Exchange Rates in Multicountry Econometric Models written by Paul de Grauwe and published by Palgrave Macmillan. This book was released on 1983 with total page 287 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Ronald MacDonald
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1475729979
Total Pages : 226 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (757 download)
Download or read book Exchange Rate Modelling written by Ronald MacDonald and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-04-17 with total page 226 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Are foreign exchange markets efficient? Are fundamentals important for predicting exchange rate movements? What is the signal-to-ratio of high frequency exchange rate changes? Is it possible to define a measure of the equilibrium exchange rate that is useful from an assessment perspective? The book is a selective survey of current thinking on key topics in exchange rate economics, supplemented throughout by new empirical evidence. The focus is on the use of advanced econometric tools to find answers to these and other questions which are important to practitioners, policy-makers and academic economists. In addition, the book addresses more technical econometric considerations such as the importance of the choice between single-equation and system-wide approaches to modelling the exchange rate, and the reduced form versus structural equation problems. Readers will gain both a comprehensive overview of the way macroeconomists approach exchange rate modelling, and an understanding of how advanced techniques can help them explain and predict the behavior of this crucial economic variable.
Author : Ray C. Fair
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 35 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (151 download)
Download or read book Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Determination written by Ray C. Fair and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since Meese and Rogoff's (1983) results, the view has become fairly widespread that structural models of exchange rates are not very good. There is, however, somewhat of a dichotomy in the literature between those who deal with small models, where the focus is almost exclusively on exchange rates, and those who deal with large macroeconometric models, where exchange rates make up only a small subset of the endogenous variables. Most of the emphasis has been on the first approach, and it may be that exchange rate determination within the context of large models has not been given a sufficient hearing. Exchange rate and interest rate equations are estimated and analyzed for 17 countries in this paper. This study is part of a larger project of constructing a multicountry econometric model. One of the aims of the paper is to see if the exchange rate equations that are part of my multicountry model also suffer from the Meese and Rogoff criticism. The results show that the view that structural exchange rate models are not very good may be too pessimistic.
Author : Richard T. Baillie
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521396905
Total Pages : 280 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (969 download)
Download or read book The Foreign Exchange Market written by Richard T. Baillie and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1989 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The flotation of exchange rates in the early 1970s saw a significant increase in the importance of foreign exchange markets and in the interest shown in them. Apart from the consequent institutional changes, this period also witnessed a revolution in macroeconomic analysis and finance theory based on the concept of rational expectations. This book provides an integrated approach to recent developments in the understanding of foreign exchange markets. It begins by charting the institutional background and looks at the recent history of movements in some of the major exchange rates. The theoretical sections focus on the economic and finance theory of the asset market approach, the macroeconomic models developed from this approach, and on interest rate parity theory. The empirical chapters draw on the authors' own research from a high quality set of exchange rate and interest rate data. The statistical properties of exchange rates are analysed; the relationship between spot and forward rates is examined; and the modelling and impact of new information on the forward and spot relationship is considered. The final chapter is devoted to the estimation and testing of exchange rate models.
Author : Robert Miguel W. K. Kollman
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451928521
Total Pages : 52 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (519 download)
Download or read book The Exchange Rate in a Dynamic-Optimizing Current Account Model with Nominal Rigidities written by Robert Miguel W. K. Kollman and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-01-01 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies dynamic-optimizing model of a semi-small open economy with sticky nominal prices and wages. The model exhibits exchange rate overshooting in response to money supply shocks. The predicted variability of nominal and real exchange rates is roughly consistent with that of G-7 effective exchange rates during the post-Bretton Woods era. The model predicts that a positive domestic money supply shock lowers the domestic nominal interest rate, that it raises output and that it leads to a nominal and real depreciation of the country’s currency. Increases in domestic labor productivity and in the world interest rate too are predicted to induce a nominal and real exchange rate depreciation.
Author : Arif Orçun Söylemez
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1000357317
Total Pages : 83 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (3 download)
Download or read book Foreign Exchange Rates written by Arif Orçun Söylemez and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2021-02-07 with total page 83 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Predicting foreign exchange rates has presented a long-standing challenge for economists. However, the recent advances in computational techniques, statistical methods, newer datasets on emerging market currencies, etc., offer some hope. While we are still unable to beat a driftless random walk model, there has been serious progress in the field. This book provides an in-depth assessment of the use of novel statistical approaches and machine learning tools in predicting foreign exchange rate movement. First, it offers a historical account of how exchange rate regimes have evolved over time, which is critical to understanding turning points in a historical time series. It then presents an overview of the previous attempts at modeling exchange rates, and how different methods fared during this process. At the core sections of the book, the author examines the time series characteristics of exchange rates and how contemporary statistics and machine learning can be useful in improving predictive power, compared to previous methods used. Exchange rate determination is an active research area, and this book will appeal to graduate-level students of international economics, international finance, open economy macroeconomics, and management. The book is written in a clear, engaging, and straightforward way, and will greatly improve access to this much-needed knowledge in the field.
Author : Paul de Grauwe
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 287 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (848 download)
Download or read book Exchange Rates in Multicountry Econometrics Models written by Paul de Grauwe and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 287 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Javier Gardeazabal
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642488587
Total Pages : 206 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (424 download)
Download or read book The Monetary Model of Exchange Rates and Cointegration written by Javier Gardeazabal and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These notes draw from the Theory of Cointegration in order to test the monetary model of exchange rate determination. Previous evidence shows that the monetary model does not capture the short run dynamics of the exchange rate, specially when assessed in terms of forecasting accuracy. Even though the monetary equations of exchange rate determination may be bad indicators of how exchange rates are determined in the short run, they couldstill describe long run equilibrium relationships between the exchange rate and its fundamentals. Stationary deviations from those long run relationships are allowed in the short run. This book also addresses severalissues on Cointegration. Chapter 6 studies the small sample distribution of the likelihood ratio test statistics (on the dimension and restrictions on the cointegrating space) under deviations from normality. This monograph also focuses on the issue of optimal prediction in partially nonstationary multivariate time series models. In particular, it caries out an exchange rate prediction exercise.
Author : Ray C. Fair
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 78 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (11 download)
Download or read book A Multicountry Econometric Model (Revised) written by Ray C. Fair and published by . This book was released on 1979 with total page 78 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A multi-country econometric model is presented in this paper. The theoretical basis of the model is discussed in Fair (l979a), and the present paper is an empirical extension of this work. The model is quarterly and contains estimated equations for 44 countries. Most of the equations have been estimated by two stage least squares. The basic estimation period is 19581-19801 (89 observations). For equations that are relevant only when exchange rates are flexible, the basic estimation period is 1972II-19801 (32 observations). The trade matrix contains data for 64 countries. The U.S. part of the model is the model described in Fair (1976, 1980b). The model differs from previous models in a number of ways.(1) Linkages among countries with respect to exchange rates, interest rates, and prices appear to be more important in the model than they are in previous models. (2) There is no natural distinction in the model between stock-market and flow-market determination of the exchange rate.(3) The number of countries is larger than usual, and the data are all quarterly. (4) I alone have estimated small models for each country and then linked them together, rather than, as Project LINK has done, take models developed by others and link them together. The advantage of this approach is that the person constructing the individual models knows from the beginning that they are to be linked together, and this may lead to better specification of the linkages. The paper contains (1) a review of the theoretical basis of the model, (2) a description of the econometric model, including presentation and discussion of all the estimated equations, (3) a comparison of the predictive accuracy of the model to that of a fourth order autoregressive model, and (4) a brief discussion of the properties of the model. A much more detailed examination of the properties of the model is presented in Fair (1981).
Author : Sandrine Lardic
Publisher : Applied Econometrics Associati
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 154 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)
Download or read book Recent Developments on Exchange Rates written by Sandrine Lardic and published by Applied Econometrics Associati. This book was released on 2004-01-29 with total page 154 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This collection examines recent developments in exchange rate analysis. In the first part, two exchange rate models are proposed: a model which combines heterogeneous agents and transaction costs, and a dynamic general-equilibrium two-country sticky-price model. The second part of the book deals with econometric aspects of the exchange rate dynamics linked to regime-switching and structural breaks. In the third part of the book, an analysis of speculative attacks and monetary policy is presented.
Author : Guy V. G. Stevens
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 612 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (31 download)
Download or read book The U.S. Economy in an Interdependent World written by Guy V. G. Stevens and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 612 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Martin D. D. Evans
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400838843
Total Pages : 561 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)
Download or read book Exchange-Rate Dynamics written by Martin D. D. Evans and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-03-14 with total page 561 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive and in-depth look at exchange-rate dynamics Variations in the foreign exchange market influence all aspects of the world economy, and understanding these dynamics is one of the great challenges of international economics. This book provides a new, comprehensive, and in-depth examination of the standard theories and latest research in exchange-rate economics. Covering a vast swath of theoretical and empirical work, the book explores established theories of exchange-rate determination using macroeconomic fundamentals, and presents unique microbased approaches that combine the insights of microstructure models with the macroeconomic forces driving currency trading. Macroeconomic models have long assumed that agents—households, firms, financial institutions, and central banks—all have the same information about the structure of the economy and therefore hold the same expectations and uncertainties regarding foreign currency returns. Microbased models, however, look at how heterogeneous information influences the trading decisions of agents and becomes embedded in exchange rates. Replicating key features of actual currency markets, these microbased models generate a rich array of empirical predictions concerning trading patterns and exchange-rate dynamics that are strongly supported by data. The models also show how changing macroeconomic conditions exert an influence on short-term exchange-rate dynamics via their impact on currency trading. Designed for graduate courses in international macroeconomics, international finance, and finance, and as a go-to reference for researchers in international economics, Exchange-Rate Dynamics guides readers through a range of literature on exchange-rate determination, offering fresh insights for further reading and research. Comprehensive and in-depth examination of the latest research in exchange-rate economics Outlines theoretical and empirical research across the spectrum of modeling approaches Presents new results on the importance of currency trading in exchange-rate determination Provides new perspectives on long-standing puzzles in exchange-rate economics End-of-chapter questions cement key ideas
Author : Yin-Wong Cheung
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 64 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties written by Yin-Wong Cheung and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Previous assessments of nominal exchange rate determination have focused upon a narrow set of models typically of the 1970's vintage. The canonical papers in this literature are by Meese and Rogoff (1983, 1988), who examined monetary and portfolio balance models. Succeeding works by Mark (1995) and Chinn and Meese (1995) focused on similar models. In this paper we re-assess exchange rate prediction using a wider set of models that have been proposed in the last decade: interest rate parity, productivity based models, and behavioral equilibrium exchange rate' models. The performance of these models is compared against a benchmark model the Dornbusch-Frankel sticky price monetary model. The models are estimated in error correction and first-difference specifications. Rather than estimating the cointegrating vector over the entire sample and treating it as part of the ex ante information set as is commonly done in the literature, we recursively update the cointegrating vector, thereby generating true ex ante forecasts. We examine model performance at various forecast horizons (1 quarter, 4 quarters, 20 quarters) using differing metrics (mean squared error, direction of change), as well as the consistency' test of Cheung and Chinn (1998). No model consistently outperforms a random walk, by a mean squared error measure; however, along a direction-of-change dimension, certain structural models do outperform a random walk with statistical significance. Moreover, one finds that these forecasts are cointegrated with the actual values of exchange rates, although in a large number of cases, the elasticity of the forecasts with respect to the actual values is different from unity. Overall, model/specification/currency combinations that work well in one period will not necessarily work well in another period.
Author : Guy V. Stevens
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 70 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)
Download or read book Modeling Bilateral Exchange Rates in a Multi-country Model written by Guy V. Stevens and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Jean-Olivier Hairault
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1134426135
Total Pages : 320 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (344 download)
Download or read book Exchange Rate Dynamics written by Jean-Olivier Hairault and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2004 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book builds upon the seminal work by Obsfeld and Rogoff, Foundations of International Macroeconomics and provides a coherent and modern framework for thinking about exchange rate dynamics.
Author : Richard J. Herring
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521311205
Total Pages : 254 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (112 download)
Download or read book Managing Foreign Exchange Risk written by Richard J. Herring and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1986-04-30 with total page 254 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A collection of essays about foreign exchange risk and how to cope with it.
