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Author :
Publisher : Allied Publishers
ISBN 13 : 9788177644517
Total Pages : 436 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (445 download)
Download or read book Probability Theory written by and published by Allied Publishers. This book was released on 2013 with total page 436 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Probability theory
Author : Edwin T. Jaynes
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9780792302131
Total Pages : 468 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (21 download)
Download or read book E.T. Jaynes written by Edwin T. Jaynes and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 1989-04-30 with total page 468 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first six chapters of this volume present the author's 'predictive' or information theoretic' approach to statistical mechanics, in which the basic probability distributions over microstates are obtained as distributions of maximum entropy (Le. , as distributions that are most non-committal with regard to missing information among all those satisfying the macroscopically given constraints). There is then no need to make additional assumptions of ergodicity or metric transitivity; the theory proceeds entirely by inference from macroscopic measurements and the underlying dynamical assumptions. Moreover, the method of maximizing the entropy is completely general and applies, in particular, to irreversible processes as well as to reversible ones. The next three chapters provide a broader framework - at once Bayesian and objective - for maximum entropy inference. The basic principles of inference, including the usual axioms of probability, are seen to rest on nothing more than requirements of consistency, above all, the requirement that in two problems where we have the same information we must assign the same probabilities. Thus, statistical mechanics is viewed as a branch of a general theory of inference, and the latter as an extension of the ordinary logic of consistency. Those who are familiar with the literature of statistics and statistical mechanics will recognize in both of these steps a genuine 'scientific revolution' - a complete reversal of earlier conceptions - and one of no small significance.
Author : W. T. Grandy, Jr
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521617109
Total Pages : 296 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (171 download)
Download or read book Physics and Probability written by W. T. Grandy, Jr and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2004-12-16 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The pioneering work of Edwin T. Jaynes in the field of statistical physics, quantum optics, and probability theory has had a significant and lasting effect on the study of many physical problems, ranging from fundamental theoretical questions through to practical applications such as optical image restoration. Physics and Probability is a collection of papers in these areas by some of his many colleagues and former students, based largely on lectures given at a symposium celebrating Jaynes' contributions, on the occasion of his seventieth birthday and retirement as Wayman Crow Professor of Physics at Washington University. The collection contains several authoritative overviews of current research on maximum entropy and quantum optics, where Jaynes' work has been particularly influential, as well as reports on a number of related topics. In the concluding paper, Jaynes looks back over his career, and gives encouragement and sound advice to young scientists. All those engaged in research on any of the topics discussed in these papers will find this a useful and fascinating collection, and a fitting tribute to an outstanding and innovative scientist.
Author : Aubrey Clayton
Publisher : Columbia University Press
ISBN 13 : 0231553358
Total Pages : 641 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (315 download)
Download or read book Bernoulli's Fallacy written by Aubrey Clayton and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2021-08-03 with total page 641 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is a logical flaw in the statistical methods used across experimental science. This fault is not a minor academic quibble: it underlies a reproducibility crisis now threatening entire disciplines. In an increasingly statistics-reliant society, this same deeply rooted error shapes decisions in medicine, law, and public policy with profound consequences. The foundation of the problem is a misunderstanding of probability and its role in making inferences from observations. Aubrey Clayton traces the history of how statistics went astray, beginning with the groundbreaking work of the seventeenth-century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli and winding through gambling, astronomy, and genetics. Clayton recounts the feuds among rival schools of statistics, exploring the surprisingly human problems that gave rise to the discipline and the all-too-human shortcomings that derailed it. He highlights how influential nineteenth- and twentieth-century figures developed a statistical methodology they claimed was purely objective in order to silence critics of their political agendas, including eugenics. Clayton provides a clear account of the mathematics and logic of probability, conveying complex concepts accessibly for readers interested in the statistical methods that frame our understanding of the world. He contends that we need to take a Bayesian approach—that is, to incorporate prior knowledge when reasoning with incomplete information—in order to resolve the crisis. Ranging across math, philosophy, and culture, Bernoulli’s Fallacy explains why something has gone wrong with how we use data—and how to fix it.
Author : G. Erickson
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9789027727930
Total Pages : 338 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (279 download)
Download or read book Maximum-Entropy and Bayesian Methods in Science and Engineering written by G. Erickson and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 1988-08-31 with total page 338 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume has its origin in the Fifth, Sixth and Seventh Workshops on and Bayesian Methods in Applied Statistics", held at "Maximum-Entropy the University of Wyoming, August 5-8, 1985, and at Seattle University, August 5-8, 1986, and August 4-7, 1987. It was anticipated that the proceedings of these workshops would be combined, so most of the papers were not collected until after the seventh workshop. Because all of the papers in this volume are on foundations, it is believed that the con tents of this volume will be of lasting interest to the Bayesian community. The workshop was organized to bring together researchers from different fields to critically examine maximum-entropy and Bayesian methods in science and engineering as well as other disciplines. Some of the papers were chosen specifically to kindle interest in new areas that may offer new tools or insight to the reader or to stimulate work on pressing problems that appear to be ideally suited to the maximum-entropy or Bayesian method. A few papers presented at the workshops are not included in these proceedings, but a number of additional papers not presented at the workshop are included. In particular, we are delighted to make available Professor E. T. Jaynes' unpublished Stanford University Microwave Laboratory Report No. 421 "How Does the Brain Do Plausible Reasoning?" (dated August 1957). This is a beautiful, detailed tutorial on the Cox-Polya-Jaynes approach to Bayesian probability theory and the maximum-entropy principle.
Author : Julian Jaynes
Publisher : Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
ISBN 13 : 0547527543
Total Pages : 580 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (475 download)
Download or read book The Origin of Consciousness in the Breakdown of the Bicameral Mind written by Julian Jaynes and published by Houghton Mifflin Harcourt. This book was released on 2000-08-15 with total page 580 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: National Book Award Finalist: “This man’s ideas may be the most influential, not to say controversial, of the second half of the twentieth century.”—Columbus Dispatch At the heart of this classic, seminal book is Julian Jaynes's still-controversial thesis that human consciousness did not begin far back in animal evolution but instead is a learned process that came about only three thousand years ago and is still developing. The implications of this revolutionary scientific paradigm extend into virtually every aspect of our psychology, our history and culture, our religion—and indeed our future. “Don’t be put off by the academic title of Julian Jaynes’s The Origin of Consciousness in the Breakdown of the Bicameral Mind. Its prose is always lucid and often lyrical…he unfolds his case with the utmost intellectual rigor.”—The New York Times “When Julian Jaynes . . . speculates that until late in the twentieth millennium BC men had no consciousness but were automatically obeying the voices of the gods, we are astounded but compelled to follow this remarkable thesis.”—John Updike, The New Yorker “He is as startling as Freud was in The Interpretation of Dreams, and Jaynes is equally as adept at forcing a new view of known human behavior.”—American Journal of Psychiatry
Author : Will Kurt
Publisher : No Starch Press
ISBN 13 : 1593279566
Total Pages : 258 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (932 download)
Download or read book Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way written by Will Kurt and published by No Starch Press. This book was released on 2019-07-09 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fun guide to learning Bayesian statistics and probability through unusual and illustrative examples. Probability and statistics are increasingly important in a huge range of professions. But many people use data in ways they don't even understand, meaning they aren't getting the most from it. Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way will change that. This book will give you a complete understanding of Bayesian statistics through simple explanations and un-boring examples. Find out the probability of UFOs landing in your garden, how likely Han Solo is to survive a flight through an asteroid shower, how to win an argument about conspiracy theories, and whether a burglary really was a burglary, to name a few examples. By using these off-the-beaten-track examples, the author actually makes learning statistics fun. And you'll learn real skills, like how to: - How to measure your own level of uncertainty in a conclusion or belief - Calculate Bayes theorem and understand what it's useful for - Find the posterior, likelihood, and prior to check the accuracy of your conclusions - Calculate distributions to see the range of your data - Compare hypotheses and draw reliable conclusions from them Next time you find yourself with a sheaf of survey results and no idea what to do with them, turn to Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way to get the most value from your data.
Author : G. Larry Bretthorst
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 146849399X
Total Pages : 210 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (684 download)
Download or read book Bayesian Spectrum Analysis and Parameter Estimation written by G. Larry Bretthorst and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 210 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work is essentially an extensive revision of my Ph.D. dissertation, [1J. It 1S primarily a research document on the application of probability theory to the parameter estimation problem. The people who will be interested in this material are physicists, economists, and engineers who have to deal with data on a daily basis; consequently, we have included a great deal of introductory and tutorial material. Any person with the equivalent of the mathematics background required for the graduate level study of physics should be able to follow the material contained in this book, though not without eIfort. From the time the dissertation was written until now (approximately one year) our understanding of the parameter estimation problem has changed extensively. We have tried to incorporate what we have learned into this book. I am indebted to a number of people who have aided me in preparing this docu ment: Dr. C. Ray Smith, Steve Finney, Juana Sunchez, Matthew Self, and Dr. Pat Gibbons who acted as readers and editors. In addition, I must extend my deepest thanks to Dr. Joseph Ackerman for his support during the time this manuscript was being prepared.
Author : Brian J. McVeigh
Publisher : Andrews UK Limited
ISBN 13 : 1788360435
Total Pages : 215 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (883 download)
Download or read book The Psychology of the Bible written by Brian J. McVeigh and published by Andrews UK Limited. This book was released on 2020-09-17 with total page 215 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fire and brimstone, bellowing prophets, and a good dose of old-fashioned sermonizing — these are the images the Bible brings to mind. But this assortment of sacred writings, in particular the Old Testament, is more than a collection of colorful allegories or miracles-and-morals mythology. Though written in the first millennium BCE, these holy writings are a nostalgic recounting of a lost 'super-religious' mentality that characterized the Bronze Age. The Psychology of the Bible explores how the Old Testament provides perspective into the tumultuous transition from an earlier mentality to a new paradigm of interiorized psychology and introspective religiosity that came to characterize the first millennium BCE. By examining the Old Testament's historical background and theopolitical context, utilizing linguistic analysis, and applying systems and communication theory, this book interprets biblical passages through a new lens. It analyzes divine voices, visions, and appearances of heavenly messengers — angel and prophets — as neurocultural phenomena and explains why they were so common. This book also answers why definitions of God changed so radically, illuminates the divinatory role of idols and other oracular aids (e.g. the Ark of the Covenant), provides a framework for appreciating why ‘wisdom literature' became so significant, and clarifies the linkages among music, poetry, and inspiration.
Author : John Skilling
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9401578605
Total Pages : 521 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (15 download)
Download or read book Maximum Entropy and Bayesian Methods written by John Skilling and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-29 with total page 521 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cambridge, England, 1988
Author : R.D. Rosenkrantz
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9400965818
Total Pages : 457 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (9 download)
Download or read book E. T. Jaynes: Papers on Probability, Statistics and Statistical Physics written by R.D. Rosenkrantz and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 457 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first six chapters of this volume present the author's 'predictive' or information theoretic' approach to statistical mechanics, in which the basic probability distributions over microstates are obtained as distributions of maximum entropy (Le. , as distributions that are most non-committal with regard to missing information among all those satisfying the macroscopically given constraints). There is then no need to make additional assumptions of ergodicity or metric transitivity; the theory proceeds entirely by inference from macroscopic measurements and the underlying dynamical assumptions. Moreover, the method of maximizing the entropy is completely general and applies, in particular, to irreversible processes as well as to reversible ones. The next three chapters provide a broader framework - at once Bayesian and objective - for maximum entropy inference. The basic principles of inference, including the usual axioms of probability, are seen to rest on nothing more than requirements of consistency, above all, the requirement that in two problems where we have the same information we must assign the same probabilities. Thus, statistical mechanics is viewed as a branch of a general theory of inference, and the latter as an extension of the ordinary logic of consistency. Those who are familiar with the literature of statistics and statistical mechanics will recognize in both of these steps a genuine 'scientific revolution' - a complete reversal of earlier conceptions - and one of no small significance.
Author : Michael Strevens
Publisher : Harvard University Press
ISBN 13 : 0674076028
Total Pages : 260 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (74 download)
Download or read book Tychomancy written by Michael Strevens and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 2013-06-03 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tychomancy—meaning “the divination of chances”—presents a set of rules for inferring the physical probabilities of outcomes from the causal or dynamic properties of the systems that produce them. Probabilities revealed by the rules are wide-ranging: they include the probability of getting a 5 on a die roll, the probability distributions found in statistical physics, and the probabilities that underlie many prima facie judgments about fitness in evolutionary biology. Michael Strevens makes three claims about the rules. First, they are reliable. Second, they are known, though not fully consciously, to all human beings: they constitute a key part of the physical intuition that allows us to navigate around the world safely in the absence of formal scientific knowledge. Third, they have played a crucial but unrecognized role in several major scientific innovations. A large part of Tychomancy is devoted to this historical role for probability inference rules. Strevens first analyzes James Clerk Maxwell’s extraordinary, apparently a priori, deduction of the molecular velocity distribution in gases, which launched statistical physics. Maxwell did not derive his distribution from logic alone, Strevens proposes, but rather from probabilistic knowledge common to all human beings, even infants as young as six months old. Strevens then turns to Darwin’s theory of natural selection, the statistics of measurement, and the creation of models of complex systems, contending in each case that these elements of science could not have emerged when or how they did without the ability to “eyeball” the values of physical probabilities.
Author : Sharon Bertsch McGrayne
Publisher : Yale University Press
ISBN 13 : 0300175094
Total Pages : 336 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (1 download)
Download or read book The Theory That Would Not Die written by Sharon Bertsch McGrayne and published by Yale University Press. This book was released on 2011-05-17 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This account of how a once reviled theory, Baye’s rule, came to underpin modern life is both approachable and engrossing" (Sunday Times). A New York Times Book Review Editors’ Choice Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the generations-long human drama surrounding it. McGrayne traces the rule’s discovery by an 18th century amateur mathematician through its development by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years—while practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information, such as Alan Turing's work breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II. McGrayne also explains how the advent of computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA de-coding to Homeland Security. Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, The Theory That Would Not Die is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest controversies of all time.
Author : Judea Pearl
Publisher : Basic Books
ISBN 13 : 0465097618
Total Pages : 432 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (65 download)
Download or read book The Book of Why written by Judea Pearl and published by Basic Books. This book was released on 2018-05-15 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Turing Award-winning computer scientist and statistician shows how understanding causality has revolutionized science and will revolutionize artificial intelligence "Correlation is not causation." This mantra, chanted by scientists for more than a century, has led to a virtual prohibition on causal talk. Today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, instigated by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and established causality -- the study of cause and effect -- on a firm scientific basis. His work explains how we can know easy things, like whether it was rain or a sprinkler that made a sidewalk wet; and how to answer hard questions, like whether a drug cured an illness. Pearl's work enables us to know not just whether one thing causes another: it lets us explore the world that is and the worlds that could have been. It shows us the essence of human thought and key to artificial intelligence. Anyone who wants to understand either needs The Book of Why.
Author : Iain McGilchrist
Publisher : Yale University Press
ISBN 13 : 0300245920
Total Pages : 615 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (2 download)
Download or read book The Master and His Emissary written by Iain McGilchrist and published by Yale University Press. This book was released on 2019-03-26 with total page 615 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A new edition of the bestselling classic – published with a special introduction to mark its 10th anniversary This pioneering account sets out to understand the structure of the human brain – the place where mind meets matter. Until recently, the left hemisphere of our brain has been seen as the ‘rational’ side, the superior partner to the right. But is this distinction true? Drawing on a vast body of experimental research, Iain McGilchrist argues while our left brain makes for a wonderful servant, it is a very poor master. As he shows, it is the right side which is the more reliable and insightful. Without it, our world would be mechanistic – stripped of depth, colour and value.
Author : Phil Gregory
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 113944428X
Total Pages : 498 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (394 download)
Download or read book Bayesian Logical Data Analysis for the Physical Sciences written by Phil Gregory and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2005-04-14 with total page 498 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian inference provides a simple and unified approach to data analysis, allowing experimenters to assign probabilities to competing hypotheses of interest, on the basis of the current state of knowledge. By incorporating relevant prior information, it can sometimes improve model parameter estimates by many orders of magnitude. This book provides a clear exposition of the underlying concepts with many worked examples and problem sets. It also discusses implementation, including an introduction to Markov chain Monte-Carlo integration and linear and nonlinear model fitting. Particularly extensive coverage of spectral analysis (detecting and measuring periodic signals) includes a self-contained introduction to Fourier and discrete Fourier methods. There is a chapter devoted to Bayesian inference with Poisson sampling, and three chapters on frequentist methods help to bridge the gap between the frequentist and Bayesian approaches. Supporting Mathematica® notebooks with solutions to selected problems, additional worked examples, and a Mathematica tutorial are available at www.cambridge.org/9780521150125.
Author : Heinz-Peter Breuer
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN 13 : 9780198520634
Total Pages : 648 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (26 download)
Download or read book The Theory of Open Quantum Systems written by Heinz-Peter Breuer and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2002 with total page 648 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book treats the central physical concepts and mathematical techniques used to investigate the dynamics of open quantum systems. To provide a self-contained presentation the text begins with a survey of classical probability theory and with an introduction into the foundations of quantum mechanics with particular emphasis on its statistical interpretation. The fundamentals of density matrix theory, quantum Markov processes and dynamical semigroups are developed. The most important master equations used in quantum optics and in the theory of quantum Brownian motion are applied to the study of many examples. Special attention is paid to the theory of environment induced decoherence, its role in the dynamical description of the measurement process and to the experimental observation of decohering Schrodinger cat states. The book includes the modern formulation of open quantum systems in terms of stochastic processes in Hilbert space. Stochastic wave function methods and Monte Carlo algorithms are designed and applied to important examples from quantum optics and atomic physics, such as Levy statistics in the laser cooling of atoms, and the damped Jaynes-Cummings model. The basic features of the non-Markovian quantum behaviour of open systems are examined on the basis of projection operator techniques. In addition, the book expounds the relativistic theory of quantum measurements and discusses several examples from a unified perspective, e.g. non-local measurements and quantum teleportation. Influence functional and super-operator techniques are employed to study the density matrix theory in quantum electrodynamics and applications to the destruction of quantum coherence are presented. The text addresses graduate students and lecturers in physics and applied mathematics, as well as researchers with interests in fundamental questions in quantum mechanics and its applications. Many analytical methods and computer simulation techniques are developed and illustrated with the help of numerous specific examples. Only a basic understanding of quantum mechanics and of elementary concepts of probability theory is assumed.
