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Estimating Terrorism Risk
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Book Synopsis Estimating Terrorism Risk by : Henry H. Willis
Download or read book Estimating Terrorism Risk written by Henry H. Willis and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2006-01-06 with total page 93 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Department of Homeland Security is responsible for protecting the United States from terrorism. It does so partly through the Urban Areas Security Initiative, though its distribution has been criticized for not reflecting risk. This monograph offers a practical definition of terrorism risk and a method for estimating it that addresses inherent uncertainties. It also demonstrates a framework for evaluating alternative risk estimates. Finally, it makes five recommendations for improving resource allocation.
Download or read book Estimating Terrorism Risk written by and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is responsible for protecting the United States from terrorism through prevention, preparedness, and response. In part, this goal is achieved through allocation of resources to states and urban areas. The Urban Areas Security Initiative (UASI) is a DHS grant program designed to enhance security and overall preparedness by addressing unique planning, equipment, training, and exercise needs of large urban areas (DHS, 2004). Although there appears to be agreement among many stakeholders that these allocations should reflect the magnitude of risks to which different areas are exposed, no consensus has emerged on how this might be accomplished. Indeed, the UASI grant program has frequently been criticized for inadequately calculating risk and therefore for failing to distribute resources in proportion to urban areas' shares of total terrorism risk.
Book Synopsis Guiding Resource Allocations Based on Terrorism Risk by :
Download or read book Guiding Resource Allocations Based on Terrorism Risk written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Establishing tolerable levels of risk is one of the most contentious and important risk management decisions. With every regulatory or funding decision for a risk management program, society decides whether or not risk is tolerable. The Urban Area Security Initiative (UASI) is a Department of Homeland Security (DHS) grant program designed to enhance security and overall preparedness to prevent, respond to, and recover from acts of terrorism, by providing financial assistance for planning, equipment, training, and exercise needs of large urban areas. After briefly reviewing rationales for risk-based resource allocation and challenges in estimating terrorism risk, this paper compares estimates of terrorism risk in urban areas that received UASI funding in 2004 to other federal risk management decisions. This comparison suggests that UASI allocations are generally consistent with other federal risk management decisions. However, terrorism risk in several cities that received funding is below levels that are often tolerated in other risk management contexts. There are several reasons why the conclusions about terrorism risk being de minimis in specific cities should be challenged. Some of these surround the means used to estimate terrorism risk for this study. Others involve the comparison that is made to other risk management decisions. However, many of the observations reported are valid even if reported terrorism risk estimates are several orders of magnitude low. Discussion of resource allocation should be extended to address risk tolerance and include explicit comparisons, like those presented here, to other risk management decisions.
Book Synopsis Terrorism Risk Modeling for Intelligence Analysis and Infrastructure Protection by : Henry H. Willis
Download or read book Terrorism Risk Modeling for Intelligence Analysis and Infrastructure Protection written by Henry H. Willis and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2007 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Department of Homeland Security is moving increasingly to risk analysis and risk-based resource allocation, a process that is designed to manage the greatest risks instead of attempting to protect everything. The authors show how a probabilistic terrorism model can be used to assess terrorist risk across cities and within specific cities, and to assist intelligence analysis.
Book Synopsis Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis by : National Research Council
Download or read book Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-10-10 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The events of September 11, 2001 changed perceptions, rearranged national priorities, and produced significant new government entities, including the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) created in 2003. While the principal mission of DHS is to lead efforts to secure the nation against those forces that wish to do harm, the department also has responsibilities in regard to preparation for and response to other hazards and disasters, such as floods, earthquakes, and other "natural" disasters. Whether in the context of preparedness, response or recovery from terrorism, illegal entry to the country, or natural disasters, DHS is committed to processes and methods that feature risk assessment as a critical component for making better-informed decisions. Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis explores how DHS is building its capabilities in risk analysis to inform decision making. The department uses risk analysis to inform decisions ranging from high-level policy choices to fine-scale protocols that guide the minute-by-minute actions of DHS employees. Although DHS is responsible for mitigating a range of threats, natural disasters, and pandemics, its risk analysis efforts are weighted heavily toward terrorism. In addition to assessing the capability of DHS risk analysis methods to support decision-making, the book evaluates the quality of the current approach to estimating risk and discusses how to improve current risk analysis procedures. Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis recommends that DHS continue to build its integrated risk management framework. It also suggests that the department improve the way models are developed and used and follow time-tested scientific practices, among other recommendations.
Book Synopsis Assessing the Benefits of U.S. Customs and Border Protection Regulatory Actions to Reduce Terrorism Risks by : Victoria A. Greenfield
Download or read book Assessing the Benefits of U.S. Customs and Border Protection Regulatory Actions to Reduce Terrorism Risks written by Victoria A. Greenfield and published by RAND Corporation. This book was released on 2012-04-04 with total page 102 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This document distills and synthesizes the proceedings of a workshop in which experts in the field of regulatory analysis and terrorism risk examined alternative approaches for estimating the benefits of regulations designed to reduce the risks of terrorist attacks in the United States. The workshop gave rise to several recommendations for improving the modeling and data collection that support the benefit-cost analysis of terrorism security regulations.
Book Synopsis Using Probabilistic Terrorism Risk Modeling for Regulatory Benefit-Cost Analysis. Application to the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative Implemented in the Land Environment by :
Download or read book Using Probabilistic Terrorism Risk Modeling for Regulatory Benefit-Cost Analysis. Application to the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative Implemented in the Land Environment written by and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004 requires that the Secretary of Homeland Security develop a plan for reliably evaluating the identity and citizenship of people entering the U.S. In response, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection "CBP" and U.S. Department of State are proposing a regulation specifying documentation requirements for people entering the U.S. via land borders from countries in the Western Hemisphere, referred to as the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative "WHTI-L". The White House Office of Management and Budget directs agencies to use benefit-cost analyses to evaluate proposed regulations during the regulatory review process. However, data and methods for estimating the benefits of terrorism security regulations like the WHTI-L are inadequate to support benefit-cost analysis. This report introduces a framework for using probabilistic terrorism risk modeling in a break-even analysis of a regulatory action, demonstrates an application of the framework on the regulatory analysis of WHTI-L, and discusses how this type of analysis can be further integrated into the regulatory review process.
Book Synopsis Estimating Terrorism Risk by : Henry H. Willis
Download or read book Estimating Terrorism Risk written by Henry H. Willis and published by RAND Corporation. This book was released on 2006-01-06 with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Department of Homeland Security is responsible for protecting the United States from terrorism. It does so partly through the Urban Areas Security Initiative, though its distribution has been criticized for not reflecting risk. This monograph offers a practical definition of terrorism risk and a method for estimating it that addresses inherent uncertainties. It also demonstrates a framework for evaluating alternative risk estimates. Finally, it makes five recommendations for improving resource allocation.
Book Synopsis Distribution of Losses from Large Terrorist Attacks Under the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act by : Stephen J. Carroll
Download or read book Distribution of Losses from Large Terrorist Attacks Under the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act written by Stephen J. Carroll and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2005 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The pending expiration of the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA) of 2002 is the impetus for this assessment of how TRIA redistributes terrorism losses. The authors find that the role of taxpayers is expected to be minimal in all but very rare cases and that, even with TRIA in place, a high fraction of losses would go uninsured in each of the attack scenarios examined.
Book Synopsis Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment by : National Research Council
Download or read book Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2009-01-03 with total page 172 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The mission of Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment: A Call for Change, the book published in December 2008, is to independently and scientifically review the methodology that led to the 2006 Department of Homeland Security report, Bioterrorism Risk Assessment (BTRA) and provide a foundation for future updates. This book identifies a number of fundamental concerns with the BTRA of 2006, ranging from mathematical and statistical mistakes that have corrupted results, to unnecessarily complicated probability models and models with fidelity far exceeding existing data, to more basic questions about how terrorist behavior should be modeled. Rather than merely criticizing what was done in the BTRA of 2006, this new NRC book consults outside experts and collects a number of proposed alternatives that could improve DHS's ability to assess potential terrorist behavior as a key element of risk-informed decision making, and it explains these alternatives in the specific context of the BTRA and the bioterrorism threat.
Book Synopsis Terrorism and the Electric Power Delivery System by : National Research Council
Download or read book Terrorism and the Electric Power Delivery System written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2012-11-25 with total page 165 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The electric power delivery system that carries electricity from large central generators to customers could be severely damaged by a small number of well-informed attackers. The system is inherently vulnerable because transmission lines may span hundreds of miles, and many key facilities are unguarded. This vulnerability is exacerbated by the fact that the power grid, most of which was originally designed to meet the needs of individual vertically integrated utilities, is being used to move power between regions to support the needs of competitive markets for power generation. Primarily because of ambiguities introduced as a result of recent restricting the of the industry and cost pressures from consumers and regulators, investment to strengthen and upgrade the grid has lagged, with the result that many parts of the bulk high-voltage system are heavily stressed. Electric systems are not designed to withstand or quickly recover from damage inflicted simultaneously on multiple components. Such an attack could be carried out by knowledgeable attackers with little risk of detection or interdiction. Further well-planned and coordinated attacks by terrorists could leave the electric power system in a large region of the country at least partially disabled for a very long time. Although there are many examples of terrorist and military attacks on power systems elsewhere in the world, at the time of this study international terrorists have shown limited interest in attacking the U.S. power grid. However, that should not be a basis for complacency. Because all parts of the economy, as well as human health and welfare, depend on electricity, the results could be devastating. Terrorism and the Electric Power Delivery System focuses on measures that could make the power delivery system less vulnerable to attacks, restore power faster after an attack, and make critical services less vulnerable while the delivery of conventional electric power has been disrupted.
Book Synopsis Improving Homeland Security Decisions by : Ali E. Abbas
Download or read book Improving Homeland Security Decisions written by Ali E. Abbas and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-11-02 with total page 787 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Are we safer from terrorism today and is our homeland security money well spent? This book offers answers and more.
Book Synopsis Reducing Terrorism Risk at Shopping Centers by : Tom LaTourrette
Download or read book Reducing Terrorism Risk at Shopping Centers written by Tom LaTourrette and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2006 with total page 130 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Terrorist threat at shopping centers is a prominent concern, with over 60 terrorist attacks against shopping centers in 21 countries since 1998. Shopping center operators are starting to explore and implement increased security efforts specifically designed to combat terrorism. This report offers qualitative and quantitative modeling approaches to help these operators evaluate security options for effectiveness at reducing terrorism risk.
Book Synopsis Risk Analysis and Security Countermeasure Selection by : CPP/PSP/CSC, Thomas L. Norman
Download or read book Risk Analysis and Security Countermeasure Selection written by CPP/PSP/CSC, Thomas L. Norman and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2009-12-18 with total page 412 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: When properly conducted, risk analysis enlightens, informs, and illuminates, helping management organize their thinking into properly prioritized, cost-effective action. Poor analysis, on the other hand, usually results in vague programs with no clear direction and no metrics for measurement. Although there is plenty of information on risk analysis
Book Synopsis Applied Risk Analysis for Guiding Homeland Security Policy and Decisions by : Samrat Chatterjee
Download or read book Applied Risk Analysis for Guiding Homeland Security Policy and Decisions written by Samrat Chatterjee and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2021-02-24 with total page 528 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Presents various challenges faced by security policy makers and risk analysts, and mathematical approaches that inform homeland security policy development and decision support Compiled by a group of highly qualified editors, this book provides a clear connection between risk science and homeland security policy making and includes top-notch contributions that uniquely highlight the role of risk analysis for informing homeland security policy decisions. Featuring discussions on various challenges faced in homeland security risk analysis, the book seamlessly divides the subject of risk analysis for homeland security into manageable chapters, which are organized by the concept of risk-informed decisions, methodology for applying risk analysis, and relevant examples and case studies. Applied Risk Analysis for Guiding Homeland Security Policy and Decisions offers an enlightening overview of risk analysis methods for homeland security. For instance, it presents readers with an exploration of radiological and nuclear risk assessment, along with analysis of uncertainties in radiological and nuclear pathways. It covers the advances in risk analysis for border security, as well as for cyber security. Other topics covered include: strengthening points of entry; systems modeling for rapid containment and casualty mitigation; and disaster preparedness and critical infrastructure resilience. Highlights how risk analysis helps in the decision-making process for homeland security policy Presents specific examples that detail how various risk analysis methods provide decision support for homeland security policy makers and risk analysts Describes numerous case studies from academic, government, and industrial perspectives that apply risk analysis methods for addressing challenges within the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Offers detailed information regarding each of the five DHS missions: prevent terrorism and enhance security; secure and manage our borders; enforce and administer our immigration laws; safeguard and secure cyberspace; and strengthen national preparedness and resilience Discusses the various approaches and challenges faced in homeland risk analysis and identifies improvements and methodological advances that influenced DHS to adopt an increasingly risk-informed basis for decision-making Written by top educators and professionals who clearly illustrate the link between risk science and homeland security policy making Applied Risk Analysis for Guiding Homeland Security Policy and Decisions is an excellent textbook and/or supplement for upper-undergraduate and graduate-level courses related to homeland security risk analysis. It will also be an extremely beneficial resource and reference for homeland security policy analysts, risk analysts, and policymakers from private and public sectors, as well as researchers, academics, and practitioners who utilize security risk analysis methods.
Author :Committee on R&D Needs for Improving Civilian Medical Response to Chemical and Biological Terrorism Incidents Publisher :National Academies Press ISBN 13 :0309523141 Total Pages :303 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (95 download)
Book Synopsis Chemical and Biological Terrorism by : Committee on R&D Needs for Improving Civilian Medical Response to Chemical and Biological Terrorism Incidents
Download or read book Chemical and Biological Terrorism written by Committee on R&D Needs for Improving Civilian Medical Response to Chemical and Biological Terrorism Incidents and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1999-02-26 with total page 303 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The threat of domestic terrorism today looms larger than ever. Bombings at the World Trade Center and Oklahoma City's Federal Building, as well as nerve gas attacks in Japan, have made it tragically obvious that American civilians must be ready for terrorist attacks. What do we need to know to help emergency and medical personnel prepare for these attacks? Chemical and Biological Terrorism identifies the R&D efforts needed to implement recommendations in key areas: pre-incident intelligence, detection and identification of chemical and biological agents, protective clothing and equipment, early recognition that a population has been covertly exposed to a pathogen, mass casualty decontamination and triage, use of vaccines and pharmaceuticals, and the psychological effects of terror. Specific objectives for computer software development are also identified. The book addresses the differences between a biological and chemical attack, the distinct challenges to the military and civilian medical communities, and other broader issues. This book will be of critical interest to anyone involved in civilian preparedness for terrorist attack: planners, administrators, responders, medical professionals, public health and emergency personnel, and technology designers and engineers.
Book Synopsis Risk Terrain Modeling by : Joel M. Caplan
Download or read book Risk Terrain Modeling written by Joel M. Caplan and published by Univ of California Press. This book was released on 2016-06-28 with total page 171 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Imagine using an evidence-based risk management model that enables researchers and practitioners alike to analyze the spatial dynamics of crime, allocate resources, and implement custom crime and risk reduction strategies that are transparent, measurable, and effective. Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM) diagnoses the spatial attractors of criminal behavior and makes accurate forecasts of where crime will occur at the microlevel. RTM informs decisions about how the combined factors that contribute to criminal behavior can be targeted, connections to crime can be monitored, spatial vulnerabilities can be assessed, and actions can be taken to reduce worst effects. As a diagnostic method, RTM offers a statistically valid way to identify vulnerable places. To learn more, visit http://www.riskterrainmodeling.com and begin using RTM with the many free tutorials and resources.
