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Estimates Of Canadas Potential Gdp And Output Gap
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Book Synopsis Measurement of the Output Gap by : Pierre St.-Amant
Download or read book Measurement of the Output Gap written by Pierre St.-Amant and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses some methodologies for estimating potential output and the output gap that have recently been studied at the Bank of Canada. The assumptions and econometric techniques used by the different methodologies are discussed in turn, and applications to Canadian data are presented. The first group of methods considered are those that simply use some implicit or explicit assumptions about the dynamics of real output to identify the output gap, including the Hodrick and Prescott filter for identifying the cyclical component of output. The second group consists of approaches that combine their assumptions with information from assumed or structural relationships between the output gap and other economic variables. The third class of methods uses multivariate rather than univariate dynamic relationships, often in combination with structural relationships from economic theory, to estimate output gap as a particular transitory component of real output.
Book Synopsis How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe? by : Mr.Alvar Kangur
Download or read book How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe? written by Mr.Alvar Kangur and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-09-20 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the properties of the IMF-WEO estimates of real-time output gaps for countries in the euro area as well as the determinants of their revisions over 1994-2017. The analysis shows that staff typically saw economies as operating below their potential. In real time, output gaps tend to have large and negative averages that are largely revised away in later vintages. Most of the mis-measurement in real time can be explained by the difficulty in predicting recessions and by overestimation of the economy’s potential capacity. We also find, in line with earlier literature, that real-time output gaps are not useful for predicting inflation. In addition, countries where slack (and potential growth) is overestimated to a larger extent primary fiscal balances tend to be lower and public debt ratios are higher and increase faster than projected. Previous research suggests that national authorities’ real-time output gaps suffer from a similar bias. To the extent these estimates play a role in calibrating fiscal policy, over-optimism about long-term growth could contribute to excessive deficits and debt buildup.
Book Synopsis A Simple Multivariate Filter for Estimating Potential Output by : Patrick Blagrave
Download or read book A Simple Multivariate Filter for Estimating Potential Output written by Patrick Blagrave and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-04-07 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Estimates of potential output are an important ingredient of structured forecasting and policy analysis. Using information on consensus forecasts, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by Benes and others (2010). Although the estimates in real time are more robust relative to those of naïve statistical filters, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates. The paper presents estimates for 16 countries and provides an example of how the filtered estimates at the end of the sample period can be improved with additional information.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1484382668 Total Pages :84 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (843 download)
Book Synopsis Canada by : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Download or read book Canada written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-06-13 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper describes recent economic developments, outlook, risks, and policy challenges of the Canadian economy. After almost two years, the effects of the oil price shock continue to reverberate through the Canadian economy. Growth has decelerated, but inflation expectations remain well anchored. With the slowdown in growth, the output gap has reopened. Persistently low energy prices pose an important risk to the economy. The banking system remains sound, but exposure to the oil and gas sector will require higher provisions against expected losses. The policy mix over the near-term should cushion the adverse effects of lower oil prices on the economy while safeguarding financial stability.
Book Synopsis Canada's Potential Growth by : Mr.Marcello M. Estevão
Download or read book Canada's Potential Growth written by Mr.Marcello M. Estevão and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-01-01 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study investigates the impact of the current financial crisis on Canada's potential GDP growth. Using a simple accounting framework to decompose trend GDP growth into changes in capital, labor services and total factor productivity, we find a sizeable drop in Canadian potential growth in the short term. The estimated decline of about 1 percentage point originates from a sharply decelerating capital stock accumulation (as investment has dropped steeply) and a rising long-term unemployment rate (which would raise equilibrium unemployment rates). However, over the medium term, we expect Canada's potential GDP growth to gradually rise to around 2 percent, below the pre-crisis growth rate, mostly reflecting the effects of population aging and a secular decline in average working hours.
Book Synopsis Canada by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Canada written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-12-22 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A credible framework for macroeconomic policy, strong policy response, and resilient financial system have enabled Canada to exit the global crisis on a strong footing. Executive Directors encouraged authorities to maintain their prudent and far-sighted policies while strengthening productivity and competitiveness. Directors welcomed its accommodative stance of monetary policy and ambitious fiscal consolidation plans to strengthen its long-term economic potential. They observed that Canada is well positioned to adapt its financial regulatory framework to emerging international initiatives. Further progress toward national securities regulation will be an essential enhancement in this framework.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1498321003 Total Pages :71 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis Canada by : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Download or read book Canada written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-06-24 with total page 71 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Growth has slowed to a more sustainable level and financial vulnerabilities have eased. But risks remain. Household debt is high, the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) awaits legislative approval, and ongoing trade tensions between the United States (U.S.) and its major trading partners are weighing on the global outlook.
Book Synopsis Hysteresis and Business Cycles by : Ms.Valerie Cerra
Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Book Synopsis The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment by : Mr.Abdul Abiad
Download or read book The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment written by Mr.Abdul Abiad and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-05-04 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides new evidence of the macroeconomic effects of public investment in advanced economies. Using public investment forecast errors to identify the causal effect of government investment in a sample of 17 OECD economies since 1985 and model simulations, the paper finds that increased public investment raises output, both in the short term and in the long term, crowds in private investment, and reduces unemployment. Several factors shape the macroeconomic effects of public investment. When there is economic slack and monetary accommodation, demand effects are stronger, and the public-debt-to-GDP ratio may actually decline. Public investment is also more effective in boosting output in countries with higher public investment efficiency and when it is financed by issuing debt.
Book Synopsis Okun's Law, Development, and Demographics: Differences in the Cyclical Sensitivities of Unemployment Across Economy and Worker Groups by : Zidong An
Download or read book Okun's Law, Development, and Demographics: Differences in the Cyclical Sensitivities of Unemployment Across Economy and Worker Groups written by Zidong An and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-11-12 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The negative and stable relationship between an economy’s aggregate demand conditions and overall unemployment is well-documented. We show that there is a large degree of heterogeneity in the cyclical sensitivities of unemployment across worker and economy groups. First, unemployment is more than twice as sensitive to aggregate demand in advanced as in emerging market and developing economies. Second, youth’s unemployment is twice as sensitive as that of adults’. Third, women’s unemployment is significantly less sensitive to demand than men’s in advanced economies. These findings point to the highly unequal impacts of the business cycle across worker and economy groups.
Author :Fraser Institute (Vancouver, B.C.) Publisher :The Fraser Institute ISBN 13 :0889751692 Total Pages :122 pages Book Rating :4.8/5 (897 download)
Book Synopsis The Underground Economy by : Fraser Institute (Vancouver, B.C.)
Download or read book The Underground Economy written by Fraser Institute (Vancouver, B.C.) and published by The Fraser Institute. This book was released on 1997 with total page 122 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the back cover: The papers in this ground breaking book constitute a unique collection of information about the underground economy and how it is manifested in a variety of countries. Section One attempts to measure Canada's underground economic activity and provides a specific estimate of the impact that tax changes have on its size. It also looks at the problems of tax evasion and tax avoidance. Section Two deals with the size of the underground substance economy, the legal aspects of tlhe underground economy in the United States, and an asseeement of the economic activities of the Mafia. Section Three analyzes the underground economy abroad, specifically in the United States, Britain, Mexico, Peru, Chile, Russia and China. The fourth section returns to Canada and examines some policy implications of the underground economy. A survey detailed in Section One shows that a majority of Canadians believe that they do not receive enough benefits for the taxation they pay. Section Four offers a solution to the problem of tax evasion and underground economic activity; the adoption of user fees and user taxes.
Book Synopsis The Harper Factor by : Jennifer Ditchburn
Download or read book The Harper Factor written by Jennifer Ditchburn and published by McGill-Queen's Press - MQUP. This book was released on 2016-10-19 with total page 305 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Political legacy is a concept that is often tossed around casually, hastily defined by commentators long before a prime minister leaves office. In the case of the polarizing Stephen Harper, clear-eyed analysis of his tenure is hard to come by. The Harper Factor offers a refreshingly balanced look at the Conservative decade under his leadership. What impact did Harper have on the nation’s finances, on law and order, and on immigration? Did he accomplish what he promised to do in areas such as energy and intergovernmental affairs? How did he change the conduct of politics, the workings of the media, and Parliament? A diverse group of contributors, including veteran economists David Dodge and Richard Dion, immigration advocate Senator Ratna Omidvar, Stephen Harper’s former policy director Paul Wilson, award-winning journalists such as Susan Delacourt, and vice-provost of Aboriginal Initiatives at Lakehead University Cynthia Wesley-Esquimaux, make reasoned cases for how Harper succeeded and how he fell short in different policy domains between 2006 and 2015. Stephen Harper’s record is decidedly more nuanced than both his admirers and detractors will concede. The Harper Factor provides an authoritative reference for Canadians on the twenty-second prime minister’s imprint on public policy while in office, and his political legacy for generations to come.
Book Synopsis Global Economic Prospects, June 2021 by : World Bank
Download or read book Global Economic Prospects, June 2021 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-08-03 with total page 339 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.
Book Synopsis When and How to Adjust Beyond the Business Cycle? A Guide to Structural Fiscal Balances by : Fabian Bornhorst
Download or read book When and How to Adjust Beyond the Business Cycle? A Guide to Structural Fiscal Balances written by Fabian Bornhorst and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-04-11 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Technical Notes and Manuals are produced by IMF departments to expand the dissemination of their technical assistance advice. These papers present general advice and guidance, drawn in part from unpublished technical assistance reports, to a broader audience. This new series was launched in August 2009.
Book Synopsis Estimation and Use of the Potential GDP for Monetary Policy for the SEACEN Countries by : Vincent Lim
Download or read book Estimation and Use of the Potential GDP for Monetary Policy for the SEACEN Countries written by Vincent Lim and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis OECD Economic Surveys: Canada 2010 by : OECD
Download or read book OECD Economic Surveys: Canada 2010 written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2010-09-10 with total page 161 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2010 edition of OECD's periodic review of Canada's economy includes chapters covering policies to sustain the recovery, fiscal consolidation strategies, and health care reform.
Book Synopsis Macroeconomics for Professionals by : Leslie Lipschitz
Download or read book Macroeconomics for Professionals written by Leslie Lipschitz and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2019-01-23 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding macroeconomic developments and policies in the twenty-first century is daunting: policy-makers face the combined challenges of supporting economic activity and employment, keeping inflation low and risks of financial crises at bay, and navigating the ever-tighter linkages of globalization. Many professionals face demands to evaluate the implications of developments and policies for their business, financial, or public policy decisions. Macroeconomics for Professionals provides a concise, rigorous, yet intuitive framework for assessing a country's macroeconomic outlook and policies. Drawing on years of experience at the International Monetary Fund, Leslie Lipschitz and Susan Schadler have created an operating manual for professional applied economists and all those required to evaluate economic analysis.
