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Essays In Corporate Prediction Markets
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Book Synopsis Predictocracy by : Michael Abramowicz
Download or read book Predictocracy written by Michael Abramowicz and published by Yale University Press. This book was released on 2008-10-01 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Predicting the future is serious business for virtually all public and private institutions, for they must often make important decisions based upon such predictions. This text explores how institutions might improve their predictions and arrive at better decisions by means of prediction markets.
Book Synopsis Science Fiction and the Prediction of the Future by : Gary Westfahl
Download or read book Science Fiction and the Prediction of the Future written by Gary Westfahl and published by McFarland. This book was released on 2014-01-10 with total page 271 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Science fiction has always challenged readers with depictions of the future. Can the genre actually provide glimpses of the world of tomorrow? This collection of fifteen international and interdisciplinary essays examines the genre's predictions and breaks new ground by considering the prophetic functions of science fiction films as well as SF literature. Among the texts and topics examined are classic stories by Murray Leinster, C. L. Moore, and Cordwainer Smith; 2001: A Space Odyssey and its sequels, Japanese anime and Hong Kong cinema; and electronic fiction.
Book Synopsis Understanding Strategic Interaction by : Wulf Albers
Download or read book Understanding Strategic Interaction written by Wulf Albers and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 526 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Strategic interaction occurs whenever it depends on others what one finally obtains: on markets, in firms, in politics etc. Game theorists analyse such interaction normatively, using numerous different methods. The rationalistic approach assumes perfect rationality whereas behavioral theories take into account cognitive limitations of human decision makers. In the animal kingdom one usually refers to evolutionary forces when explaining social interaction. The volume contains innovative contributions, surveys of previous work and two interviews which shed new light on these important topics of the research agenda. The contributions come from highly regarded researchers from all over the world who like to express in this way their intellectual inspiration by the Nobel-laureate Reinhard Selten.
Book Synopsis The Age of Surveillance Capitalism by : Shoshana Zuboff
Download or read book The Age of Surveillance Capitalism written by Shoshana Zuboff and published by PublicAffairs. This book was released on 2019-01-15 with total page 683 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The challenges to humanity posed by the digital future, the first detailed examination of the unprecedented form of power called "surveillance capitalism," and the quest by powerful corporations to predict and control our behavior. In this masterwork of original thinking and research, Shoshana Zuboff provides startling insights into the phenomenon that she has named surveillance capitalism. The stakes could not be higher: a global architecture of behavior modification threatens human nature in the twenty-first century just as industrial capitalism disfigured the natural world in the twentieth. Zuboff vividly brings to life the consequences as surveillance capitalism advances from Silicon Valley into every economic sector. Vast wealth and power are accumulated in ominous new "behavioral futures markets," where predictions about our behavior are bought and sold, and the production of goods and services is subordinated to a new "means of behavioral modification." The threat has shifted from a totalitarian Big Brother state to a ubiquitous digital architecture: a "Big Other" operating in the interests of surveillance capital. Here is the crucible of an unprecedented form of power marked by extreme concentrations of knowledge and free from democratic oversight. Zuboff's comprehensive and moving analysis lays bare the threats to twenty-first century society: a controlled "hive" of total connection that seduces with promises of total certainty for maximum profit -- at the expense of democracy, freedom, and our human future. With little resistance from law or society, surveillance capitalism is on the verge of dominating the social order and shaping the digital future -- if we let it.
Book Synopsis Redefining the Corporation by : James E. Post
Download or read book Redefining the Corporation written by James E. Post and published by Stanford University Press. This book was released on 2002 with total page 340 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book shows how the modern corporation must meet the expectations of diverse constiutents who contribute to its existence and success, the stakeholders: resource providers, customers, suppliers, alliance partners, and social and political actors. It argues that the corporation must be seen as an institution engaged in mobilizing resources to create wealth and benefits for all its stakeholders.
Book Synopsis Information Markets by : Robert William Hahn
Download or read book Information Markets written by Robert William Hahn and published by A E I Press. This book was released on 2006 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Information markets have proven to be so remarkably accurate at predicting a wide range of events, from presidential elections to Oscar winners, that scholars are challenged to examine the potential for using this innovative tool in other areas. This book brings together nine leading scholars to evaluate the applicability of information markets to the work of policymakers, non-profit organizations, and the private sector.
Book Synopsis Imperfect Knowledge Economics by : Roman Frydman
Download or read book Imperfect Knowledge Economics written by Roman Frydman and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2023-09-26 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Posing a major challenge to economic orthodoxy, Imperfect Knowledge Economics asserts that exact models of purposeful human behavior are beyond the reach of economic analysis. Roman Frydman and Michael Goldberg argue that the longstanding empirical failures of conventional economic models stem from their futile efforts to make exact predictions about the consequences of rational, self-interested behavior. Such predictions, based on mechanistic models of human behavior, disregard the importance of individual creativity and unforeseeable sociopolitical change. Scientific though these explanations may appear, they usually fail to predict how markets behave. And, the authors contend, recent behavioral models of the market are no less mechanistic than their conventional counterparts: they aim to generate exact predictions of "irrational" human behavior. Frydman and Goldberg offer a long-overdue response to the shortcomings of conventional economic models. Drawing attention to the inherent limits of economists' knowledge, they introduce a new approach to economic analysis: Imperfect Knowledge Economics (IKE). IKE rejects exact quantitative predictions of individual decisions and market outcomes in favor of mathematical models that generate only qualitative predictions of economic change. Using the foreign exchange market as a testing ground for IKE, this book sheds new light on exchange-rate and risk-premium movements, which have confounded conventional models for decades. Offering a fresh way to think about markets and representing a potential turning point in economics, Imperfect Knowledge Economics will be essential reading for economists, policymakers, and professional investors.
Book Synopsis Promoting the General Welfare by : Alan S. Gerber
Download or read book Promoting the General Welfare written by Alan S. Gerber and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Analyzes government's ability to "promote the general welfare" in the areas of health, transportation, housing, and education. Then examines two tools to improve policy design: information markets and laboratory experiments. Concludes by asking how Congress, the party system, and federalism affect government's ability to solve important social problems"--Provided by publisher.
Book Synopsis Essays in Positive Economics by : Milton Friedman
Download or read book Essays in Positive Economics written by Milton Friedman and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 1953 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper is concerned primarily with certain methodological problems that arise in constructing the "distinct positive science" that John Neville Keynes called for, in particular, the problem how to decide whether a suggested hypothesis or theory should be tentatively accepted as part of the "body of systematized knowledge concerning what is."
Book Synopsis Prediction Markets by : Stefan Luckner
Download or read book Prediction Markets written by Stefan Luckner and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-11-04 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Accurate predictions are essential in many areas such as corporate decision making, weather forecasting and technology forecasting. Prediction markets help to aggregate information and gain a better understanding of the future by leveraging the wisdom of the crowds. Trading prices in prediction markets thus reflect the traders’ aggregated expectations on the outcome of uncertain future events and can be used to predict the likelihood of these events. This book demonstrates that markets are accurate predictors. Results from several empirical studies reported in this work show the importance of designing such markets properly in order to derive valuable predictions. Therefore, the findings are valuable for designing future prediction markets.
Download or read book What's Next written by Ian Bremmer and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2012-11-06 with total page 135 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the world’s leading experts on geopolitical risk, a guide to the major global issues and policies sure to dominate headlines in the next few years. In the last four years, the world has suffered a financial market meltdown and subsequent global recession. The eurozone crisis looms, the Middle East is in turmoil, and a shifting power balance between emerging markets and developed economies is reordering the global economy as a whole. Political and economic challenges intertwine now more than ever before, as the demands of local politics and global business grow increasingly complex and begin to conflict in new ways. Facing these new challenges, what will the future hold? Ian Bremmer and Douglas Rediker, together with experts, analysts, and many of their colleagues from the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Geopolitical Risk, analyze these global issues and provide a template to understand how they will change our world in the next few years. Focusing on the most volatile, powerful, or misunderstood developments, the authors examine, among other topics: The risks to the International Monetary Fund Russia’s future The roles of emerging markets The political roots of the eurozone crisis Important trends and tensions in Asia-Pacific The rise of regionalism in the wake of fracturing international governance Most importantly, the contributors provide guidance on how to understand some of the key dynamics in the rapidly evolving global game.
Book Synopsis Prediction Markets by : Leighton Vaughan Williams
Download or read book Prediction Markets written by Leighton Vaughan Williams and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2011-06-16 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How does one effectively aggregate disparate pieces of information that are spread among many different individuals? In other words, how does one best access the ‘wisdom of the crowd’? Prediction markets, which are essentially speculative markets created for the purpose of aggregating information and making predictions, offer the answer to this question. The effective use of these markets has the potential not only to help forecast future events on a national and international level, but also to assist companies, for example, in providing improved estimates of the potential market size for a new product idea or the launch date of new products and services. The markets have already been used to forecast uncertain outcomes ranging from influenza to the spread of infectious diseases, to the demand for hospital services, to the box office success of movies, climate change, vote shares and election outcomes, to the probability of meeting project deadlines. The insights gained also have many potentially valuable applications for public policy more generally. These markets offer substantial promise as a tool of information aggregation as well as forecasting, whether alone or as a supplement to other mechanisms like opinion surveys, group deliberations, panels of experts and focus groups. Moreover, they can be applied at a macroeconomic and microeconomic level to yield information that is valuable for government and commercial policy-makers and which can be used for a number of social purposes. This volume of original readings, contributed by many of the leading experts in the field, marks a significant addition to the base of knowledge about this fascinating subject area. The book should be of interest to anyone looking at monetary economics, economic forecasting and microeconomics.
Book Synopsis Nonlinear Dynamics and Evolutionary Economics by : Richard Hollis Day
Download or read book Nonlinear Dynamics and Evolutionary Economics written by Richard Hollis Day and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 1993 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Advances in physics, computers, and mathematics have made it possible to illustrate an astonishing array of potential behavior that can occur when nonlinear interactions are present. As Prigogine explains from a physicist's perspective, the fundamental role of instability and bounded rationality provide more precise understanding for evolution and changes. This volume considers these developments from various fields in the context of economic science. The work starts with a general non-mathematical discussion, introducing the major themes--nonlinearity, dynamical systems, and evolution in economic processes. The work continues with nonlinear analysis of macroeconomic growth and fluctuations. It describes analyses of economic adaptation, learning, and self-organization. The volume also scrutinizes a specific market--equities using nonlinear analysis, controlled experiments, and statistical inference when nonlinearity plays an essential role in data generation. The volume closes with an historical reflection by Richard Goodwin and a roundtable discussion on basic issues and new challenges in nonlinear economic dynamics.
Book Synopsis Ownership and Asymmetric Information Problems in the Corporate Loan Market by : Lewis Gaul
Download or read book Ownership and Asymmetric Information Problems in the Corporate Loan Market written by Lewis Gaul and published by CreateSpace. This book was released on 2015-01-01 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In credit markets, asymmetric information problems arise when borrowers have private information about their creditworthiness that is not observable by lenders. If these informational asymmetries do not negatively affect lenders' profitability, then they are irrelevant to lenders.
Book Synopsis How Will Capitalism End? by : Wolfgang Streeck
Download or read book How Will Capitalism End? written by Wolfgang Streeck and published by Verso Books. This book was released on 2016-11-01 with total page 348 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The provocative political thinker asks if it will be with a bang or a whimper In How Will Capitalism End? the acclaimed analyst of contemporary politics and economics Wolfgang Streeck argues that capitalism is now in a critical condition. Growth is giving way to secular stagnation; inequality is leading to instability; and confidence in the capitalist money economy has all but evaporated. Capitalism’s shotgun marriage with democracy since 1945 is breaking up as the regulatory institutions restraining its advance have collapsed, and after the final victory of capitalism over its enemies no political agency capable of rebuilding them is in sight. The capitalist system is stricken with at least five worsening disorders for which no cure is at hand: declining growth, oligarchy, starvation of the public sphere, corruption and international anarchy. In this arresting book Wolfgang Streeck asks whether we are witnessing a long and painful period of cumulative decay: of intensifying frictions, of fragility and uncertainty, and of a steady succession of “normal accidents.”
Book Synopsis Corporate Bankruptcy Prediction by : Błażej Prusak
Download or read book Corporate Bankruptcy Prediction written by Błażej Prusak and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2020-06-16 with total page 202 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bankruptcy prediction is one of the most important research areas in corporate finance. Bankruptcies are an indispensable element of the functioning of the market economy, and at the same time generate significant losses for stakeholders. Hence, this book was established to collect the results of research on the latest trends in predicting the bankruptcy of enterprises. It suggests models developed for different countries using both traditional and more advanced methods. Problems connected with predicting bankruptcy during periods of prosperity and recession, the selection of appropriate explanatory variables, as well as the dynamization of models are presented. The reliability of financial data and the validity of the audit are also referenced. Thus, I hope that this book will inspire you to undertake new research in the field of forecasting the risk of bankruptcy.
Book Synopsis Expert Political Judgment by : Philip E. Tetlock
Download or read book Expert Political Judgment written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-08-29 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
