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Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads
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Book Synopsis Determinants of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads by : Iva Petrova
Download or read book Determinants of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads written by Iva Petrova and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-12-01 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyses the determimants of emerging market sovereign bond spreads by examining the short and long-run effects of fundamental (macroeconomic) and temporary (financial market) factors on these spreads. During the current global financial and economic crisis, sovereign bond spreads widened dramatically for both developed and emerging market economies. This deterioration has widely been attributed to rapidly growing public debts and balance sheet risks. Our results indicate that in the long run, fundamentals are significant determinants of emerging market sovereign bond spreads, while in the short run, financial volatility is a more important determinant of sperads than fundamentals indicators.
Book Synopsis Determinants of Sovereign Bond Spreads in Emerging Markets by : Mr.Balazs Csonto
Download or read book Determinants of Sovereign Bond Spreads in Emerging Markets written by Mr.Balazs Csonto and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-07-10 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze the relationship between global and country-specific factors and emerging market debt spreads from three different angles. First, we aim to disentangle the effect of global and country-specific developments, and find that while both country-specific and global developments are important in the long-run, global factors are main determinants of spreads in the short-run. Second, we investigate whether and how the strength of fundamentals is related to the sensitivity of spreads to global factors. Countries with stronger fundamentals tend to have lower sensitivity to changes in global risk aversion. Third, we decompose changes in spreads and analyze the behavior of explained and unexplained components over different periods. To do so, we break down fitted changes in spreads into the contribution of country-specific and global factors, as well as decompose changes in the residual into the correction of initial misalignment and an increase/decrease in misalignment. We find that changes in spreads follow periods of tightening/widening, which are well-explained by the model; and the dynamics of the components of the unexplained residual follow all the major developments that impact market sentiment. In particular, we find that in the periods of severe marketstress, such as during the intensive phase of the Eurozone debt crisis, global factors tend to drive changes in the spreads and the misalignment tends to increase in magnitude and its relative share in actual spreads.
Book Synopsis Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads by : Mr.Fabio Comelli
Download or read book Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads written by Mr.Fabio Comelli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-01 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We estimate sovereign bond spreads of 28 emerging economies over the period January 1998-December 2011 and test the ability of the model in generating accurate in-sample predictions for emerging economies bond spreads. The impact and significance of country-specific and global explanatory variables on bond spreads varies across regions, as well as economic periods. During crisis times, good macroeconomic fundamentals are helpful in containing bond spreads, but less than in non-crisis times, possibly reflecting the impact of extra-economic forces on bond spreads when a financial crisis occurs. For some emerging economies, in-sample predictions of the monthly changes in bond spreads obtained with rolling regression routines are significantly more accurate than forecasts obtained with a random walk. Rolling regression-based bond spread predictions appear to convey more information than those obtained with a linear prediction method. By contrast, bond spreads forecasts obtained with a linear prediction method are less accurate than those obtained with random guessing.
Book Synopsis International Sovereign Bonds by Emerging Markets and Developing Economies by : Andrea Presbitero
Download or read book International Sovereign Bonds by Emerging Markets and Developing Economies written by Andrea Presbitero and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-12-24 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What determines the ability of low-income developing countries to issue bonds in international capital and what explains the spreads on these bonds? This paper examines these questions using a dataset that includes emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) that issued sovereign bonds at least once during the period 1995-2013 as well as those that did not. We find that an EMDE is more likely to issue a bond when, in comparison with non-issuing peers, it is larger in economic size, has higher per capita GDP, and has stronger macroeconomic fundamentals and government. Spreads on sovereign bonds are lower for countries with strong external and fiscal positions, as well as robust economic growth and government effectiveness. With regard to global factors, the results show that sovereign bond spreads are reduced in periods of lower market volatility.
Book Synopsis Determinants of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads by : Iva Petrova
Download or read book Determinants of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads written by Iva Petrova and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-12-01 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyses the determimants of emerging market sovereign bond spreads by examining the short and long-run effects of fundamental (macroeconomic) and temporary (financial market) factors on these spreads. During the current global financial and economic crisis, sovereign bond spreads widened dramatically for both developed and emerging market economies. This deterioration has widely been attributed to rapidly growing public debts and balance sheet risks. Our results indicate that in the long run, fundamentals are significant determinants of emerging market sovereign bond spreads, while in the short run, financial volatility is a more important determinant of sperads than fundamentals indicators.
Book Synopsis Banks, Government Bonds, and Default by : Nicola Gennaioli
Download or read book Banks, Government Bonds, and Default written by Nicola Gennaioli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-07-08 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze holdings of public bonds by over 20,000 banks in 191 countries, and the role of these bonds in 20 sovereign defaults over 1998-2012. Banks hold many public bonds (on average 9% of their assets), particularly in less financially-developed countries. During sovereign defaults, banks increase their exposure to public bonds, especially large banks and when expected bond returns are high. At the bank level, bondholdings correlate negatively with subsequent lending during sovereign defaults. This correlation is mostly due to bonds acquired in pre-default years. These findings shed light on alternative theories of the sovereign default-banking crisis nexus.
Book Synopsis Policy Responses to Capital Flows in Emerging Markets by : Mahmood Pradhan
Download or read book Policy Responses to Capital Flows in Emerging Markets written by Mahmood Pradhan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-04-20 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy issues. This Web-only series replaced Staff Position Notes in January 2011.
Book Synopsis Tracking Global Demand for Emerging Market Sovereign Debt by : Mr.Serkan Arslanalp
Download or read book Tracking Global Demand for Emerging Market Sovereign Debt written by Mr.Serkan Arslanalp and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-03-05 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes an approach to track US$1 trillion of emerging market government debt held by foreign investors in local and hard currency, based on a similar approach that was used for advanced economies (Arslanalp and Tsuda, 2012). The estimates are constructed on a quarterly basis from 2004 to mid-2013 and are available along with the paper in an online dataset. We estimate that about half a trillion dollars of foreign flows went into emerging market government debt during 2010–12, mostly coming from foreign asset managers. Foreign central bank holdings have risen as well, but remain concentrated in a few countries: Brazil, China, Indonesia, Poland, Malaysia, Mexico, and South Africa. We also find that foreign investor flows to emerging markets were less differentiated during 2010–12 against the background of near-zero interest rates in advanced economies. The paper extends some of the indicators proposed in our earlier paper to show how the investor base data can be used to assess countries’ sensitivity to external funding shocks and to track foreign investors’ exposures to different markets within a global benchmark portfolio.
Book Synopsis The Effects of Data Transparency Policy Reforms on Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads by : Sangyup Choi
Download or read book The Effects of Data Transparency Policy Reforms on Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads written by Sangyup Choi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-03-28 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We find that data transparency policy reforms, reflected in subscriptions to the IMF’s Data Standards Initiatives (SDDS and GDDS), reduce the spreads of emerging market sovereign bonds. To overcome endogeneity issues regarding a country’s decision to adopt such reforms, we first show that the reform decision is largely independent of its macroeconomic development. By using an event study, we find that subscriptions to the SDDS or GDDS leads to a 15 percent reduction in the spreads one year following such reforms. This finding is robust to various sensitivity tests, including careful consideration of the interdependence among the structural reforms.
Book Synopsis Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies by : Sebastian Edwards
Download or read book Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies written by Sebastian Edwards and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 366 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 1990s witnessed several acute currency crises among developing nations that invariably spread to other nearby at-risk countries. These episodes—in Mexico, Thailand, South Korea, Russia, and Brazil—were all exacerbated by speculative foreign investments and high-volume movements of capital in and out of those countries. Insufficient domestic controls and a sluggish international response further undermined these economies, as well as the credibility of external oversight agencies like the International Monetary Fund. This timely volume examines the correlation between volatile capital mobility, currency instability, and the threat of regional contagion, focusing particular attention on the emergent economies of Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe. Together these studies offer a new understanding of the empirical relationship between capital flows, international trade, and economic performance, and also afford key insights into realms of major policy concern.
Book Synopsis First-Time International Bond Issuance—New Opportunities and Emerging Risks by : Ms.Anastasia Guscina
Download or read book First-Time International Bond Issuance—New Opportunities and Emerging Risks written by Ms.Anastasia Guscina and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-07-18 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: International bond issuance by debut issuers has risen in recent years. The uptick was a result of both demand and supply factors. The search for yield and demand for portfolio diversification have resulted in demand-driven easy financing conditions. At the same time, rising financing needs for many debut issuers, coupled with reduced access to concessional financing, relatively undeveloped domestic markets, and a favorable interest rate environment have made international bonds an attractive financing alternative for many countries. As bonds issued in the international markets are typically denominated in hard currencies, have large volumes and a bullet structure, exposure to exchange rate and refinancing risk has increased. Therefore, risk-mitigating policy actions are needed to prepare for redemption, support debt sustainability, and secure adequate debt management capacity.
Book Synopsis German Bond Yields and Debt Supply: Is There a “Bund Premium”? by : Anne-Charlotte Paret
Download or read book German Bond Yields and Debt Supply: Is There a “Bund Premium”? written by Anne-Charlotte Paret and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-11-01 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Are Bunds special? This paper estimates the “Bund premium” as the difference in convenience yields between other sovereign safe assets and German government bonds adjusted for sovereign credit risk, liquidity and swap market frictions. A higher premium suggests less substitutability of sovereign bonds. We document a rise in the “Bund premium” in the post-crisis period. We show that there is a negative relationship of the premium with the relative supply of German sovereign bonds, which is more pronounced for higher maturities and when risk aversion proxied by bond market volatility is high. Going forward, we expect German government debt supply to remain scarce, with important implications for the ECB’s monetary policy strategy.
Author :International Monetary Fund Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1513573926 Total Pages :157 pages Book Rating :4.5/5 (135 download)
Book Synopsis Guidance Note For Developing Government Local Currency Bond Markets by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Guidance Note For Developing Government Local Currency Bond Markets written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-03-12 with total page 157 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This guidance note was prepared by International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Group staff under a project undertaken with the support of grants from the Financial Sector Reform and Strengthening Initiative, (FIRST).The aim of the project was to deliver a report that provides emerging market and developing economies with guidance and a roadmap in developing their local currency bond markets (LCBMs). This note will also inform technical assistance missions in advising authorities on the formulation of policies to deepen LCBMs.
Book Synopsis Exploring the Role of Foreign Investors in Russia's Local Currency Government Bond (OFZ) Market by : Yinqiu Lu
Download or read book Exploring the Role of Foreign Investors in Russia's Local Currency Government Bond (OFZ) Market written by Yinqiu Lu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-02-10 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Local currency government bonds (OFZ bonds) are an important fixed-income instrument in Russia’s financial markets. In this paper, based on granular data, we explore the development of the OFZ bond market with a focus on foreign investors. As this fixed-income market has experienced a liberalization of the domestic trading and settlement infrastructure, and weathered several episodes of market stresses since the 2008–09 global financial crisis, the role of foreign investors can be observed along with these events. What we have found is that foreign investors had influenced the market before they became an important player and since then they have contributed to the development of the market while not necessarily destabilizing it in episodes of shocks.
Book Synopsis Emerging Markets Instability by : Graciela Laura Kaminsky
Download or read book Emerging Markets Instability written by Graciela Laura Kaminsky and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2001 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Changes in sovereign ratings affect country risk and stock returns. And these changes are transmitted across countries, with neighbor-country effects being more significant.
Book Synopsis Issuing International Sovereign Bonds by : Mr.Mauro Mecagni
Download or read book Issuing International Sovereign Bonds written by Mr.Mauro Mecagni and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-06-04 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This African Department Paper examines the rise in international sovereign bonds issued by African frontier economies and recommends policies for potential first-time issuers.
Book Synopsis Managing the Sovereign-Bank Nexus by : Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia
Download or read book Managing the Sovereign-Bank Nexus written by Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-09-07 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews empirical and theoretical work on the links between banks and their governments (the bank-sovereign nexus). How significant is this nexus? What do we know about it? To what extent is it a source of concern? What is the role of policy intervention? The paper concludes with a review of recent policy proposals.
