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Author : Sarah Male
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 270 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (221 download)
Download or read book Effects of Inflation on the Housing Market Under Rational Expectations written by Sarah Male and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1135179778
Total Pages : 402 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (351 download)
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Author : Mr.Garry J. Schinasi
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451925557
Total Pages : 50 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (519 download)
Download or read book Real Estate Price Inflation, Monetary Policy, and Expectations in the United States and Japan written by Mr.Garry J. Schinasi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1994-01-01 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During the mid- to late 1980s, inflationary pressures were highly concentrated in asset markets in many industrial countries. This paper discusses why this may have occurred and then develops a forward-looking supply and demand model of the real estate market in which equilibrium prices depend on price expectations, monetary conditions, income, returns to alternative assets, and construction costs. In this model, the current equilibrium price is determined by expectations formed in different time periods by consumers and producers. The model and its more generalized dynamic specifications are estimated by maximum-likelihood methods. The empirical results do not reject the view that the relationship between real estate values and monetary policy was altered in 1980s.
Author : Leo Grebler
Publisher : Free Press
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 280 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)
Download or read book The Inflation of House Prices, Its Extent, Causes, and Consequences written by Leo Grebler and published by Free Press. This book was released on 1979 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Thomas J. Sargent
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400847648
Total Pages : 390 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)
Download or read book Rational Expectations and Inflation written by Thomas J. Sargent and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2013-05-05 with total page 390 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A fully expanded edition of the Nobel Prize–winning economist's classic book This collection of essays uses the lens of rational expectations theory to examine how governments anticipate and plan for inflation, and provides insight into the pioneering research for which Thomas Sargent was awarded the 2011 Nobel Prize in economics. Rational expectations theory is based on the simple premise that people will use all the information available to them in making economic decisions, yet applying the theory to macroeconomics and econometrics is technically demanding. Here, Sargent engages with practical problems in economics in a less formal, noneconometric way, demonstrating how rational expectations can satisfactorily interpret a range of historical and contemporary events. He focuses on periods of actual or threatened depreciation in the value of a nation's currency. Drawing on historical attempts to counter inflation, from the French Revolution and the aftermath of World War I to the economic policies of Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan, Sargent finds that there is no purely monetary cure for inflation; rather, monetary and fiscal policies must be coordinated. This fully expanded edition of Rational Expectations and Inflation includes Sargent's 2011 Nobel lecture, "United States Then, Europe Now." It also features new articles on the macroeconomics of the French Revolution and government budget deficits.
Author : Dean H. Gatzlaff
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)
Download or read book Excess Returns, Inflation and the Efficiency of the Housing Market written by Dean H. Gatzlaff and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the influence that unexpected inflation has on the reported time pattern in housing returns. Two alternative models of expected inflation are used to study its effect: a rational expectations model and an adaptive expectations model. Findings indicate that both estimates of unexpected inflation are positively correlated with excess returns to housing. If inflation expectations are assumed to have been adaptive during the 1970's and early 1980's, serial correlation in the excess returns is shown to be greatly diminished when adjusted to control for the return component associated with unexpected inflation. However, substantial inertia in the pattern of the adjusted return series remains. Under this scenario, profitable trading strategies are found to be available only to buyers who need to purchase additional housing services, and are not constrained by the time of purchase.
Author : Klaus Adam
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 77 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)
Download or read book Subjective Housing Price Expectations, Falling Natural Rates and the Optimal Inflation Target written by Klaus Adam and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 77 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: U.S. households' housing price expectations deviate systematically from rational expectations: (i) expectations are updated on average too sluggishly; (ii) following housing price changes, expectations initially underreact but subsequently overreact; (iii) households are overly optimistic (pessimistic) about capital gains when the price-to-rent ratio is high (low). We show that weak forms of capital gain extrapolation allow to simultaneously replicate the behavior of housing prices and these deviations from rational expectations as an equilibrium outcome. Embedding capital gain extrapolation into a sticky price model featuring a lower-bound constraint on nominal interest rates, we show that lower natural rates of interest increase the volatility of housing prices and thereby the volatility of the natural rate of interest. This exacerbates the relevance of the lower bound constraint and causes the optimal inflation target to increase strongly as the natural rate falls.
Author : Steven M. Sheffrin
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521479394
Total Pages : 204 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (793 download)
Download or read book Rational Expectations written by Steven M. Sheffrin and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1996-06-13 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book develops the idea of rational expectations and surveys its use in economics today.
Author : Thomas Sowell
Publisher : Basic Books (AZ)
ISBN 13 : 0465018807
Total Pages : 194 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (65 download)
Download or read book The Housing Boom and Bust written by Thomas Sowell and published by Basic Books (AZ). This book was released on 2009-05-12 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explains how we got into the current economic disaster that developed out of the economics and politics of the housing boom and bust. The "creative" financing of home mortgages and "creative" marketing of financial securities based on these mortgages to countries around the world, are part of the story of how a financial house of cards was built up--and then collapsed.
Author : Jim Clayton
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)
Download or read book Rational Expectations, Market Fundamentals and Housing Price Volatility written by Jim Clayton and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper derives a forward-looking rational expectations house price model and empirically tests its ability to explain short-run fluctuations in real house prices. A novel approach to proxying the imputed rents of owner-occupied housing, as a function of observable housing market fundamentals, is derived and combined with a housing market arbitrage relation to derive a present value model for real house prices. Tests of the rational expectations, nonlinear cross-equation restrictions reject the joint null hypothesis of rational expectations and the asset-based housing price model for quarterly, single-detached house prices in the city of Vancouver, British Columbia, over the 1979-1991 sample period. The model fails to fully capture observed house price dynamics in two real estate booms but tracks real house prices well in less volatile times, suggesting that prices may temporarily deviate from fundamental values in real estate price cycles.
Author : Thomas J. Sargent
Publisher : New York : Harper & Row
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 234 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (321 download)
Download or read book Rational Expectations and Inflation written by Thomas J. Sargent and published by New York : Harper & Row. This book was released on 1986 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Klaus Adam
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 63 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)
Download or read book Leaning Against Housing Prices as Robustly Optimal Monetary Policy written by Klaus Adam and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 63 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analytically characterize optimal monetary policy for a New Keynesian model with a housing sector. If one supposes that the private sector has rational expectations about future housing prices and inflation, optimal monetary policy can be characterized without making reference to housing price developments: commitment to a "target criterion" that refers only to inflation and the output gap is optimal, as in the standard model without a housing sector. But when a policymaker seeks to choose a policy that is robust to potential departures of private sector expectations from model-consistent ones, then the optimal target criterion must also depend on housing prices. In the empirically realistic case where housing is subsidized and where monopoly power causes output to fall short of its optimal level, the robustly optimal target criterion requires the central bank to "lean against" housing prices: following unexpected housing price increases, policy should adopt a stance that is projected to undershoot its normal targets for inflation and the output gap, and similarly aim to overshoot those targets in the case of unexpected declines in housing prices. The robustly optimal target criterion does not require that policy distinguish between "fundamental" and "non-fundamental" movements in housing prices.
Author : Oriol Aspachs-Bracons
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1455211842
Total Pages : 54 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (552 download)
Download or read book The Effects of Housing Prices and Monetary Policy in a Currency Union written by Oriol Aspachs-Bracons and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-01-01 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent boom-and-bust cycle in housing prices has refreshed the debate on the drivers of housing cycles as well as the appropriate policy response. We analyze the case of Spain, where housing prices have soared since it joined the EMU. We present evidence based on a VAR model, and we calibrate a New Keynesian model of a currency area with durable goods to explain it. We find that labor market rigidities provide stronger amplification effects to all type of shocks than financial frictions do. Finally, we show that when the central bank reacts to house prices, the non-durable sector suffers an important contraction. As a result, the boom-and-bust cycle would not have been avoided if Spain had remained outside the EMU during the 1996-2007 period.
Author : Pascal Towbin
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513596233
Total Pages : 35 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)
Download or read book Price Expectations and the U.S. Housing Boom written by Pascal Towbin and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-07-30 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Between 1996 and 2006 the U.S. has experienced an unprecedented boom in house prices. As it has proven to be difficult to explain the large price increase by observable fundamentals, many observers have emphasized the role of speculation, i.e. expectations about future price developments. The argument is, however, often indirect: speculation is treated as a deviation from a benchmark. The present paper aims to identify house price expectation shocks directly. To that purpose, we estimate a VAR model for the U.S. and use sign restrictions to identify house price expectation, housing supply, housing demand, and mortgage rate shocks. House price expectation shocks are the most important driver of the boom and account for about 30 percent of the real house price increase. We also construct a model-based measure of exogenous changes in price expectations and show that this measure leads a survey-based measure of changes in house price expectations. Our main identification scheme leaves open whether expectation shifts are realistic or unrealistic. In extensions, we provide evidence that price expectation shifts during the boom were primarily unrealistic and were only marginally affected by realistic expectations about future fundamentals.
Author : Michael D. Bordo
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226066959
Total Pages : 545 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (26 download)
Download or read book The Great Inflation written by Michael D. Bordo and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2013-06-28 with total page 545 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.
Author : Sherman J. Maisel
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 20 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (42 download)
Download or read book Housing and the Fight Against Inflation written by Sherman J. Maisel and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Rebecca L. H. Chiu
Publisher : Taylor & Francis
ISBN 13 : 0429796161
Total Pages : 427 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (297 download)
Download or read book International Housing Market Experience and Implications for China written by Rebecca L. H. Chiu and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2019-03-18 with total page 427 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent rapid housing market expansion in China is presenting new challenges for policy makers, planners, business people, and citizens. Now that housing in middle-income China is driven by consumer choices and is no longer dominated by state policy decisions, housing policy issues in Chinese cities are becoming increasingly similar to those encountered in other global housing markets. With soaring prices and imbalances in housing supply favoring high income groups and housing demand driven by rising inequality in household incomes, many middle and lower-income households face worsening choices in terms of the quality and location of their housing as well as greater financial difficulties, which together can have negative implications for standards of public health. This book examines the impact of these changes on the general population, as well as on aspiring homeowners and developers. The contributors look at the effect on the widening of wealth gaps, slower economic growth, and threats to political and social stability. Though focusing on China, the editors also present discussions of specific policy design challenges encountered in Australia, Japan, Korea, the Netherlands, the Nordic countries, Singapore, Taiwan, the UK, and the US. This book would be of interest to housing policy makers, as well as academics who are studying the social and political effects of the Chinese housing market.
