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Author : Great Britain. Office for Budget Responsibility
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781474100724
Total Pages : 200 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (7 download)
Download or read book Economic and Fiscal Outlook written by Great Britain. Office for Budget Responsibility and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Office for Budget Responsibility
Publisher : Stationery Office
ISBN 13 : 9780101882026
Total Pages : 204 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (82 download)
Download or read book Economic and fiscal outlook March 2014 written by Office for Budget Responsibility and published by Stationery Office. This book was released on 2014-03-19 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the final quarter of 2013, GDP growth matched the December forecast, inflation fell back to target and unemployment dropped more quickly than expected. However productivity and wage growth remained disappointing. Consumer spending, supported by a falling saving ratio, has been the biggest driver of recent growth, while the latest data suggest business investment is recovering. Housing market indicators have picked up sharply but export performance remains disappointing. Given the momentum the GDP forecast has been revised up slightly to 2.7 per cent in 2014 and 2.3 per cent in 2015. The outlook for productivity growth, which underpins income growth and the sustainability of the recovery, remains the key uncertainty. Inflation is expected to remain close to target and unemployment to continue falling though at a slower pace. Combining a narrower output gap with the slightly stronger GDP growth forecast it is now expected that the economy return to normal capacity by mid-2018. Public sector net borrowing (PSNB) - the gap between what the Government spends and raises in revenue - is expected to be £3.4 billion lower than the December forecast. Borrowing is forecast to fall by a further £12.4 billion in 2014-15 moving below £100 billion for the first time in six years. The largest drivers to the downward revisions being an upward revision to stamp duty receipts and downward revision to debt interest costs. A number of budget measures have markedly different implications for revenue. These include: the pensions withdrawals measure; voluntary NICs; the temporary annual investment allowance increase; and accelerated payments related to tax avoidance
Author : Office for Budget Responsibility
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780101885935
Total Pages : 232 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (859 download)
Download or read book Economic and Fiscal Outlook December 2014 written by Office for Budget Responsibility and published by . This book was released on 2014-12-03 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This year has seen a sharp fall in the amount of tax raised for every pound of measured economic activity. Therefore, despite strong economic growth, the budget deficit is expected to fall by only £6.3 billion this year to £91.3 billion. GDP has increased more strongly than expected leading to increased forecasts for growth in calendar years 2014 and 2015. Forecasts for global GDP and trade growth have been revised down. Inflation forecast has also been revised down due to lower-than-expected outturns and effects of lower oil and food prices. It is now expected that CPI inflation will remain below the Bank of England's 2 per cent target until 2017. Meaningful real wage growth is expected to resume in 2015 but much is reliant on the uncertain timing and strength of the return to sustained productivity growth. Public sector net borrowing is expected to fall by 0.6 per cent of GDP this year, reaching 5.0 per cent. Receipts have been revised down by £7.8 billion in 2014-15 rising to £25.3 billion by 2018-19. Public spending has been revised down £2.0 billion in 2014-15 and by £7.7 billion in 2015-16 - projecting a total public spending fall to 35.2 per cent of GDP in 2019-20. In this outlook economy and fiscal forecasts are not fully consistent largely because, after the economy forecast had been closed, the Government allocated £1.2 billion of spending from the reserve to the NHS in 2015-16 and changed its total spending assumption in a way that added around £2 billion a year to spending from 2016-17
Author : Great Britain. Office for Budget Responsibility
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781474100731
Total Pages : 200 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (7 download)
Download or read book Office for Budget Responsibility written by Great Britain. Office for Budget Responsibility and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Office for Budget Responsibility
Publisher : The Stationery Office
ISBN 13 : 9780101830324
Total Pages : 192 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (33 download)
Download or read book Economic and fiscal outlook March 2012 written by Office for Budget Responsibility and published by The Stationery Office. This book was released on 2012-03-21 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Office for Budget Responsibility was established to provide independent and authoritative analysis of the UK's public finances. Part of this role includes producing the official economic and fiscal forecasts. This report sets out forecasts for the period to 2016-17. The report also assesses whether the Government is on course to meet the medium-term fiscal objectives. The OBR assessment of the outlook and risks for the UK economy is broadly unchanged since the November 2011 report. A technical recession will be avoided with positive growth in the first quarter of 2012. GDP will grow by 0.8% in 2012, 2% in 2013, 2.7% in 2014 and 3% for 2015-16 period. Public sector net borrowing is forecast to total £126 billion, 8.3% of GDP this year which is £1.1 billion less than the November forecast. For 2016-17, the PSNB is then forecast to decline to £21 billion. The fall in PSNB in 2012-13 is much larger than the OBR's November forecast due to the Government's decision to transfer the Royal Mail's historic pension deficit. The Chancellor's decision to cut 50% additional rate income tax to 45% has an estimated direct cost to the Exchequer of £0.1 billion in 2013-14. Other forecasts by the OBR, include: the ILO unemployment rate to rise from 8.4% to 8.7% over the coming year; household disposable income growth to be weak in 2012-13, but consumption to begin to offer some support to the recovery in the second half of the year; that the situation in the euro area remains a major risk to accurate forecasting. The publication is divided into five chapters: Chapter 1: Executive summary; Chapter 2: Developments since the November 2011 forecast; Chapter 3: economic outlook; Chapter 4: Fiscal outlook; Chapter 5: Performance against the Government's fiscal targest; Annex A - Budget 2012 policy measures.
Author : Office for Budget Responsibility
Publisher : The Stationery Office
ISBN 13 : 9780101857321
Total Pages : 194 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (573 download)
Download or read book Economic and Fiscal Outlook March 2013 written by Office for Budget Responsibility and published by The Stationery Office. This book was released on 2013-03-20 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report sets out forecasts for the period to 2017-18 and assesses whether the Government is on course to meet its medium-term fiscal objectives. The economy grew slightly more strongly in 2012 than expected but also shrank more than expected in the final quarter, and entered 2013 with reduced momentum. This leads the OBR to revise growth forecasts to 0.6 per cent in 2013 and 1.8 per cent in 2014. Thereafter the forecasts are unchanged rising to 2.8 percent by 2017. The pace of recovery is constrained by slow growth in productivity and real incomes, continued problems in the financial system, the fiscal consolidation and the outlook for the global economy. Public sector net borrowing (PSNB) is expected to be broadly flat this and next, then will resume its fall in 2014-15. Underlying deficits in PSNB are forecast to be very close to £120 billion in 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14. Tax receipts are £5.1 billion lower but central government departments are expected to underspend by almost £11 billion this year. The Government has a more than 50 per cent chance of meetings its fiscal mandate. Other forecasts by the OBR include: the ILO unemployment rate to peak at 8.0 per cent in 2014 before falling back to 6.9 per cent in 2017. Real wage growth is expected to be negative in 2013, only marginally positive in 2014 before picking up to 2 per cent in 2016. The publication contains: Chapter 1: Executive summary; Chapter 2: Developments since the December 2012 forecast; Chapter 3: Economic outlook; Chapter 4: Fiscal outlook; Chapter 5: Performance against the Government's fiscal targets; Annex A - Budget 2013 policy measures.
Author : Office for Budget Responsibility
Publisher : The Stationery Office
ISBN 13 : 9780101797924
Total Pages : 164 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (979 download)
Download or read book Economic and fiscal outlook written by Office for Budget Responsibility and published by The Stationery Office. This book was released on 2010-11-29 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Office for Budget Responsibility was established to provide independent and authoritative analysis of the UK's public finances. Part of this role includes producing the official economic and fiscal forecasts. This report sets out forecasts for the period to 2015-16. The report also assesses whether the Government is on course to meet the medium-term fiscal objectives and presents preliminary observations on the long-run sustainability of the public finances. Since the June forecast, the UK economy has recovered more strongly than initially expected. The GDP growth was greater than expected in both the 2nd and 3rd quarters, but that unemployment levels have risen to levels that the June forecast did not anticipate until the middle of 2012. In general the world economy has also grown more strongly. CPI inflation has remained slightly higher than expected in June, whilst public finances have performed as forecast. The interest rates on UK debt are lower than in June. The OBR forecasts that the economy will continue to recover from the recession, but at a slower pace than the recoveries of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. The publication is divided into 5 chapters with two annexes.
Author : Office for Budget Responsibility
Publisher : The Stationery Office
ISBN 13 : 9780101803625
Total Pages : 180 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (36 download)
Download or read book Economic and fiscal outlook March 2011 written by Office for Budget Responsibility and published by The Stationery Office. This book was released on 2011-03-23 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Office for Budget Responsibility was established to provide independent and authoritative analysis of the UK's public finances. Part of this role includes producing the official economic and fiscal forecasts. This report sets out forecasts for the period to 2015-16. The report also assesses whether the Government is on course to meet the medium-term fiscal objectives and presents preliminary observations on the long-run sustainability of the public finances. Since the November 2010 outlook, the key economic developments have been an unexpected fall in UK GDP in the final quarter of 2010, a rise in world oil prices, and higher-than-expected UK inflation. The labour market has performed as expected, with unemployment rising. The OBR endorse all but one of the costings for the tax and spending measures set out in Budget 2011 (HC 836, ISBN 9780102971033) as reasonable central estimates, though there are significant uncertainties around a number of them. The central forecast for economic growth in 2011 is revised down from 2.1 to 1.7 per cent. On the fiscal outlook, OBR forecast that public sector net borrowing will decline steadily as share of national income, but more slowly than forecast in November. The Government set itself two medium-term fiscal targets: to balance the cyclically-adjusted current budget by the end of a rolling five-year period; and to see public sector debt falling in 2015-16. Examining performance against these targets, the OBR believe there is a greater than 50 per cent probability of meeting both targets under current policy.
Author : Great Britain: Parliament: House of Commons: Treasury Committee
Publisher : The Stationery Office
ISBN 13 : 0215071999
Total Pages : 126 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (15 download)
Download or read book HC 1189 - Budget 2014 written by Great Britain: Parliament: House of Commons: Treasury Committee and published by The Stationery Office. This book was released on 2014-05-09 with total page 126 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this report the Treasury Committee makes recommendations on pensions, savings, HMRC debt recovery powers and housing. The greater flexibility and choice provided by the proposed pension reforms is welcomed. The 'guidance guarantee' is an important part of making sure that consumers benefit from increased choice. It should be measured against a set of recommended principles to ensure its effectiveness. The pensions reforms are also likely to lead to financial innovation. Following the financial crisis, and the mis-selling scandals, the reputation of the industry is under scrutiny. With regard to savings - double taxation has long been a deterrent to some forms of saving. With the enhanced flexibility for those saving there may now be scope in the long term for bringing the tax treatment of savings and pensions together to create a 'single savings' vehicle. The proposal to grant the power to HMRC to take money directly from people's bank accounts is extremely concerning. Exceptional powers such as this require prior independent oversight. With regard to housing, the Help to Buy scheme, at least in the short-to-medium term, could raise house prices. There is also the risk that withdrawal of Help to Buy may have a distorting effect on the housing market. The need to address these difficulties places a particular responsibility on the FPC, as well as the Government, for detecting and addressing the financial stability risks arising from the housing market. There are also reservations about any extension of retrospection in the tax system. Retrospection should be considered only in wholly exceptional circumstances
Author : Office for Budget Responsibility
Publisher : Stationery Office
ISBN 13 : 9780101874823
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (748 download)
Download or read book Economic and fiscal outlook December 2013 written by Office for Budget Responsibility and published by Stationery Office. This book was released on 2013-12-05 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Office for Budget Responsibility reports that the UK economy has picked up more strongly in 2013 than expected in its March forecast. Private consumption and housing investment have grown whilst business investment and net trade continue to disappoint. The forecast for GDP growth in 2013 is revised up to 1.4 per cent, but this is not expected to be maintained in 2014 as productivity and real earnings growth remain weak. The positive growth is judged to be cyclical, reducing the amount of spare capacity in the economy, rather than indicating stronger underlying growth potential. Productivity-driven growth in real earnings is necessary to sustain the recovery and the outlook for productivity growth is the key uncertainty. Nevertheless, the forecast for growth in 2014 is now 2.4 per cent. Public sector net borrowing (PSNB) - the gap between what the Government spends and raises in revenue - is forecast to be £111.2 billion this year, £8.6 billion lower than the March forecast and £3.8 billion lower than in 2012-13. Underlying PSNB is estimated to have fallen by a third between 2009-10 and 2012-13, the pace of reduction slowing in 2012-13. The employment forecast is now expected to reach 31.2 million in 2018, with unemployment falling steadily over the coming years, reaching 7 per cent in mid-2015 and 6 per cent by the end of 2017. CPI inflation is forecast to fall back to the Bank of England's 2 per cent target during 2016 whilst house price inflation is revised upwards, expected to be above 5 per cent in 2014 and 7 per cent in 2015.
Author : Great Britain. Parliament. House of Commons. Treasury Committee
Publisher : The Stationery Office
ISBN 13 : 0215081536
Total Pages : 88 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (15 download)
Download or read book HC 870 - Autumn Statement 2014 written by Great Britain. Parliament. House of Commons. Treasury Committee and published by The Stationery Office. This book was released on 2015 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Treasury has again been unable to provide all the information needed by deadlines agreed with the OBR. The Government may, as the Chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility suggested, have decided that for political reasons this was a "price worth paying." This would set an undesirable precedent. The work of the Office for Budget Responsibility depends on the Treasury meeting the agreed deadlines. The Committee welcomes the OBR's innovation of providing uncertainty ratings for policy costings. The Committee recommends in future that the OBR publish a breakdown of the uncertainty rating assessment against the three criteria for all announced measures at Autumn Statements and Budgets. The Committee also welcomes the Government's continued publication of the distributional analysis of the Government's policy changes and recommends that the next Government continue with this important aid to transparency. The current inflation target set by the Government is symmetrical, and is 2 per cent at all times. Several witnesses alluded to the risks of very low inflation and subsequent deflation, including the Chancellor. The Chancellor has publicly welcomed the current level of inflation. This is not likely to help anchor inflationary expectations. The Governor of the Bank of England is required to write to explain to the Chancellor why inflation has fallen below 1 per cent. It is important to avoid mixed messages on inflation targeting. The Bank of England should undertake research on the effect of net migration, and the potential for future net migration, on the supply of labour and wage growth as part of the work on meeting the MPC's remit. The Treasury should ensure that discussions within Government on immigration policy fully consider the requirements of the economy.
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 1046 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (111 download)
Download or read book OECD Economic Outlook written by and published by . This book was released on 1974 with total page 1046 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Michael Burton
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 1137482850
Total Pages : 220 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (374 download)
Download or read book The Politics of Austerity written by Michael Burton and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-10-12 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book considers the relationship between public spending and public deficit and the varying successes and difficulties governments have had in recent years to balance the two. As the fiscal crash of 2007/8 turned into the Great Recession and tax revenues tumbled, public finances across the UK, the USA and Europe plunged into deficit. Controversial attempts by governments to balance their budgets, commonly described as austerity by critics, had mixed success, politically and economically. Michael Burton outlines how politicians tackled the worst economic downturn in over half a century, drawing on previous examples of deficit-reduction to see how governments managed public finances in recessions and where austerity worked and where it failed. This two-part book, which for the first time provides an historical context to austerity, analyses firstly deficit-reduction in the UK in the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s and 2010-2016, and then looks at case studies in Europe, the USA, Canada and Asia Pacific. The author concludes that with the ageing population placing greater pressure through health and pensions on the public finances of the developed world, politicians and their electorates will have to learn to live long-term with austerity.
Author : Anthony Seldon
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1107080614
Total Pages : 645 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (7 download)
Download or read book The Coalition Effect, 2010–2015 written by Anthony Seldon and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2015-03-26 with total page 645 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The essential verdict on Britain's first coalition government since the Second World War delivered by an unrivalled team of experts.
Author : Office for Budget Responsibility
Publisher : The Stationery Office
ISBN 13 : 9780101848121
Total Pages : 200 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (481 download)
Download or read book Economic and Fiscal Outlook December 2012 written by Office for Budget Responsibility and published by The Stationery Office. This book was released on 2012-12-05 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report sets out forecasts for the period to 2017-18 and also assesses whether the Government is on course to meet its medium-term fiscal objectives. The economy has performed less strongly than forecast in March 2012 (Cm. 8303, ISBN 9780101830324) and GDP is forecast to fall by 0.1% in 2012 and then to grow by 1.2% in 2013, 2.0% in 2014, 2.7% in 2016 and 2.8% in 2017. Public sector net borrowing (PSNB) is forecast at £108 billion or 6.9% of GDP this year (excluding the transfer of the Royal Mail's historic pension deficit into the public sector). PSNB is then forecast to decline to £31 billion or 1.6% of GDP by 20017-18. Public sector net debt (PSND) is now expected to peak at 79.9% of GDP in 2015-16 meaning the Government will miss its supplementary target of PSND falling as a share of GDP between 2014-15 and 2015-16. Other developments since the March 2012 forecasts include: the unemployment rate has fallen to 7.8%, and the overall level of employment rose to 29.6 million in the three months to September. Around half the increase since 2011 has been driven by a rise in self-employment and part-time employees, though total hours worked per week have also risen. The situation in the euro area continues to weigh on confidence and trade. Inflation is also likely to be higher in the short term, reducing the growth of real household disposable income and consumption. The Government has a greater than 50% chance of hitting its fiscal mandate.
Author : John Hills
Publisher : Policy Press
ISBN 13 : 144733647X
Total Pages : 352 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (473 download)
Download or read book Good Times, Bad Times written by John Hills and published by Policy Press. This book was released on 2017-02-22 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Two-thirds of UK government spending now goes to the welfare state, and where that money is spent--healthcare, education, pensions, benefits--is at the heart of major political and public debate. Much of that debate is dominated by the myth that the population is divided into those who benefit from the welfare state and those who pay into it. But this groundbreaking book--fully revised in this second edition with current data, discussion of key policy changes, and a new preface reflecting on the changed UK political context following the 2015 election and 2016 Brexit vote--uses extensive research and survey evidence to challenge that view. It shows that our complex and ever-changing lives mean that all of us rely on the welfare state throughout our lifetimes, not just a small welfare-dependent minority. Using everyday life stories and engaging graphics, top UK social policy expert John Hills clearly demonstrates how the facts are far removed from the popular misconceptions.
Author : M. Beech
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 1137461373
Total Pages : 296 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (374 download)
Download or read book The Conservative-Liberal Coalition written by M. Beech and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-04-08 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers a unique full term analysis of the Cameron-Clegg Government. From austerity to gay marriage, the Scottish referendum to combating IS, it brings together expert academic voices to provide rigorous yet readable insights on the key areas of government politics and the debates which will shape the 2015 general election.
