Econometric Decision Models

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Econometric Decision Models

Author : Josef Gruber
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642516750
Total Pages : 629 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (425 download)

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Book Synopsis Econometric Decision Models by : Josef Gruber

Download or read book Econometric Decision Models written by Josef Gruber and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-29 with total page 629 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume contains a refereed selection of revised papers which were originally presented at the Second International Conference on Econometric Decision Models, University of Hagen (FernUni versitat). The conference was held in Haus Nordhelle, a meeting place in the mountainous area " Sauerland" , some 50 kilometers south of Hagen, on August 29 - September 1, 1989. Some details about this conference are given in the first paper, they need not be repeated here. The 40 papers included in this volume are organized in 10 "parts", shown in the table of contents. Included are such "fashionable" topics like "optimal control", "cointegration" and "rational expec tations models". In each part, the papers have been arranged alphabetically by author, unless there were good reasons for a different arrangement. To facilitate the decision making of the readers, all papers (except a few short ones) contain an abstract, a list of keywords and a table of contents. At the end of the proceedings volume, there is a list of authors. More than ten years ago, I began to organize meetings of econometricians, mainly called "seminar" or " colloquium". One major purpose of these meetings has always been to improve international cooperation of econometric model builders (and model users) from "the East" and "the West". Unprecedented changes to the better have taken place recently ("perestroika"). For a large fraction of participants from the Soviet Union, the 1989 conference was the first conference in a Western country.

Econometric Decision Models

Author : J. Gruber
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642464645
Total Pages : 374 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (424 download)

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Book Synopsis Econometric Decision Models by : J. Gruber

Download or read book Econometric Decision Models written by J. Gruber and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 374 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Evaluation of Econometric Models

Author : Jan Kmenta
Publisher : Academic Press
ISBN 13 : 1483267342
Total Pages : 425 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (832 download)

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Book Synopsis Evaluation of Econometric Models by : Jan Kmenta

Download or read book Evaluation of Econometric Models written by Jan Kmenta and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2014-05-10 with total page 425 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Evaluation of Econometric Models presents approaches to assessing and enhancing the progress of applied economic research. This book discusses the problems and issues in evaluating econometric models, use of exploratory methods in economic analysis, and model construction and evaluation when theoretical knowledge is scarce. The data analysis by partial least squares, prediction analysis of economic models, and aggregation and disaggregation of nonlinear equations are also elaborated. This text likewise covers the comparison of econometric models by optimal control techniques, role of time series analysis in econometric model evaluation, and hypothesis testing in spectral regression. Other topics include the relevance of laboratory experiments to testing resource allocation theory and token economy and animal models for the experimental analysis of economic behavior. This publication is intended for students and researchers interested in evaluating econometric models.

Complete and Incomplete Econometric Models

Author : John Geweke
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400835240
Total Pages : 176 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Complete and Incomplete Econometric Models by : John Geweke

Download or read book Complete and Incomplete Econometric Models written by John Geweke and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2010-02-08 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Econometric models are widely used in the creation and evaluation of economic policy in the public and private sectors. But these models are useful only if they adequately account for the phenomena in question, and they can be quite misleading if they do not. In response, econometricians have developed tests and other checks for model adequacy. All of these methods, however, take as given the specification of the model to be tested. In this book, John Geweke addresses the critical earlier stage of model development, the point at which potential models are inherently incomplete. Summarizing and extending recent advances in Bayesian econometrics, Geweke shows how simple modern simulation methods can complement the creative process of model formulation. These methods, which are accessible to economics PhD students as well as to practicing applied econometricians, streamline the processes of model development and specification checking. Complete with illustrations from a wide variety of applications, this is an important contribution to econometrics that will interest economists and PhD students alike.

Econometric Modeling

Author : David F. Hendry
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400845653
Total Pages : 378 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Econometric Modeling by : David F. Hendry

Download or read book Econometric Modeling written by David F. Hendry and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2012-06-21 with total page 378 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Econometric Modeling provides a new and stimulating introduction to econometrics, focusing on modeling. The key issue confronting empirical economics is to establish sustainable relationships that are both supported by data and interpretable from economic theory. The unified likelihood-based approach of this book gives students the required statistical foundations of estimation and inference, and leads to a thorough understanding of econometric techniques. David Hendry and Bent Nielsen introduce modeling for a range of situations, including binary data sets, multiple regression, and cointegrated systems. In each setting, a statistical model is constructed to explain the observed variation in the data, with estimation and inference based on the likelihood function. Substantive issues are always addressed, showing how both statistical and economic assumptions can be tested and empirical results interpreted. Important empirical problems such as structural breaks, forecasting, and model selection are covered, and Monte Carlo simulation is explained and applied. Econometric Modeling is a self-contained introduction for advanced undergraduate or graduate students. Throughout, data illustrate and motivate the approach, and are available for computer-based teaching. Technical issues from probability theory and statistical theory are introduced only as needed. Nevertheless, the approach is rigorous, emphasizing the coherent formulation, estimation, and evaluation of econometric models relevant for empirical research.

Econometric Model Selection

Author : Antonio Aznar Grasa
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9401713588
Total Pages : 265 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (17 download)

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Book Synopsis Econometric Model Selection by : Antonio Aznar Grasa

Download or read book Econometric Model Selection written by Antonio Aznar Grasa and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 265 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book proposes a new methodology for the selection of one (model) from among a set of alternative econometric models. Let us recall that a model is an abstract representation of reality which brings out what is relevant to a particular economic issue. An econometric model is also an analytical characterization of the joint probability distribution of some random variables of interest, which yields some information on how the actual economy works. This information will be useful only if it is accurate and precise; that is, the information must be far from ambiguous and close to what we observe in the real world Thus, model selection should be performed on the basis of statistics which summarize the degree of accuracy and precision of each model. A model is accurate if it predicts right; it is precise if it produces tight confidence intervals. A first general approach to model selection includes those procedures based on both characteristics, precision and accuracy. A particularly interesting example of this approach is that of Hildebrand, Laing and Rosenthal (1980). See also Hendry and Richard (1982). A second general approach includes those procedures that use only one of the two dimensions to discriminate among models. In general, most of the tests we are going to examine correspond to this category.

Market Response Models

Author : Dominique M. Hanssens
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 0306475944
Total Pages : 507 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (64 download)

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Book Synopsis Market Response Models by : Dominique M. Hanssens

Download or read book Market Response Models written by Dominique M. Hanssens and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2005-12-19 with total page 507 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From 1976 to the beginning of the millennium—covering the quarter-century life span of this book and its predecessor—something remarkable has happened to market response research: it has become practice. Academics who teach in professional fields, like we do, dream of such things. Imagine the satisfaction of knowing that your work has been incorporated into the decision-making routine of brand managers, that category management relies on techniques you developed, that marketing management believes in something you struggled to establish in their minds. It’s not just us that we are talking about. This pride must be shared by all of the researchers who pioneered the simple concept that the determinants of sales could be found if someone just looked for them. Of course, economists had always studied demand. But the project of extending demand analysis would fall to marketing researchers, now called marketing scientists for good reason, who saw that in reality the marketing mix was more than price; it was advertising, sales force effort, distribution, promotion, and every other decision variable that potentially affected sales. The bibliography of this book supports the notion that the academic research in marketing led the way. The journey was difficult, sometimes halting, but ultimately market response research advanced and then insinuated itself into the fabric of modern management.

Probability Models for Economic Decisions, second edition

Author : Roger B. Myerson
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262355604
Total Pages : 569 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (623 download)

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Book Synopsis Probability Models for Economic Decisions, second edition by : Roger B. Myerson

Download or read book Probability Models for Economic Decisions, second edition written by Roger B. Myerson and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2019-12-17 with total page 569 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risk and economic decisions, using spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty. This textbook offers an introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risks and economic decisions. It takes a learn-by-doing approach, teaching the student to use spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty and to analyze the effect of such uncertainty on an economic decision. Students in applied business and economics can more easily grasp difficult analytical methods with Excel spreadsheets. The book covers the basic ideas of probability, how to simulate random variables, and how to compute conditional probabilities via Monte Carlo simulation. The first four chapters use a large collection of probability distributions to simulate a range of problems involving worker efficiency, market entry, oil exploration, repeated investment, and subjective belief elicitation. The book then covers correlation and multivariate normal random variables; conditional expectation; optimization of decision variables, with discussions of the strategic value of information, decision trees, game theory, and adverse selection; risk sharing and finance; dynamic models of growth; dynamic models of arrivals; and model risk. New material in this second edition includes two new chapters on additional dynamic models and model risk; new sections in every chapter; many new end-of-chapter exercises; and coverage of such topics as simulation model workflow, models of probabilistic electoral forecasting, and real options. The book comes equipped with Simtools, an open-source, free software used througout the book, which allows students to conduct Monte Carlo simulations seamlessly in Excel.

Economic Modeling and Inference

Author : Bent Jesper Christensen
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780691120591
Total Pages : 508 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (25 download)

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Book Synopsis Economic Modeling and Inference by : Bent Jesper Christensen

Download or read book Economic Modeling and Inference written by Bent Jesper Christensen and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2009 with total page 508 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic Modeling and Inference takes econometrics to a new level by demonstrating how to combine modern economic theory with the latest statistical inference methods to get the most out of economic data. This graduate-level textbook draws applications from both microeconomics and macroeconomics, paying special attention to financial and labor economics, with an emphasis throughout on what observations can tell us about stochastic dynamic models of rational optimizing behavior and equilibrium. Bent Jesper Christensen and Nicholas Kiefer show how parameters often thought estimable in applications are not identified even in simple dynamic programming models, and they investigate the roles of extensions, including measurement error, imperfect control, and random utility shocks for inference. When all implications of optimization and equilibrium are imposed in the empirical procedures, the resulting estimation problems are often nonstandard, with the estimators exhibiting nonregular asymptotic behavior such as short-ranked covariance, superconsistency, and non-Gaussianity. Christensen and Kiefer explore these properties in detail, covering areas including job search models of the labor market, asset pricing, option pricing, marketing, and retirement planning. Ideal for researchers and practitioners as well as students, Economic Modeling and Inference uses real-world data to illustrate how to derive the best results using a combination of theory and cutting-edge econometric techniques. Covers identification and estimation of dynamic programming models Treats sources of error--measurement error, random utility, and imperfect control Features financial applications including asset pricing, option pricing, and optimal hedging Describes labor applications including job search, equilibrium search, and retirement Illustrates the wide applicability of the approach using micro, macro, and marketing examples

Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation

Author : Kenneth Train
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 0521766559
Total Pages : 399 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (217 download)

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Book Synopsis Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation by : Kenneth Train

Download or read book Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation written by Kenneth Train and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2009-07-06 with total page 399 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes the new generation of discrete choice methods, focusing on the many advances that are made possible by simulation. Researchers use these statistical methods to examine the choices that consumers, households, firms, and other agents make. Each of the major models is covered: logit, generalized extreme value, or GEV (including nested and cross-nested logits), probit, and mixed logit, plus a variety of specifications that build on these basics. Simulation-assisted estimation procedures are investigated and compared, including maximum stimulated likelihood, method of simulated moments, and method of simulated scores. Procedures for drawing from densities are described, including variance reduction techniques such as anithetics and Halton draws. Recent advances in Bayesian procedures are explored, including the use of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and its variant Gibbs sampling. The second edition adds chapters on endogeneity and expectation-maximization (EM) algorithms. No other book incorporates all these fields, which have arisen in the past 25 years. The procedures are applicable in many fields, including energy, transportation, environmental studies, health, labor, and marketing.

Forward-Looking Decision Making

Author : Robert E. Hall
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400835267
Total Pages : 152 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Forward-Looking Decision Making by : Robert E. Hall

Download or read book Forward-Looking Decision Making written by Robert E. Hall and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2010-02-08 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Individuals and families make key decisions that impact many aspects of financial stability and determine the future of the economy. These decisions involve balancing current sacrifice against future benefits. People have to decide how much to invest in health care, exercise, their diet, and insurance. They must decide how much debt to take on, and how much to save. And they make choices about jobs that determine employment and unemployment levels. Forward-Looking Decision Making is about modeling this individual or family-based decision making using an optimizing dynamic programming model. Robert Hall first reviews ideas about dynamic programs and introduces new ideas about numerical solutions and the representation of solved models as Markov processes. He surveys recent research on the parameters of preferences--the intertemporal elasticity of substitution, the Frisch elasticity of labor supply, and the Frisch cross-elasticity. He then examines dynamic programming models applied to health spending, long-term care insurance, employment, entrepreneurial risk-taking, and consumer debt. Linking theory with data and applying them to real-world problems, Forward-Looking Decision Making uses dynamic optimization programming models to shed light on individual behaviors and their economic implications.

Theory of Decision Under Uncertainty

Author : Itzhak Gilboa
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 052151732X
Total Pages : 216 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (215 download)

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Book Synopsis Theory of Decision Under Uncertainty by : Itzhak Gilboa

Download or read book Theory of Decision Under Uncertainty written by Itzhak Gilboa and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2009-03-16 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes the classical axiomatic theories of decision under uncertainty, as well as critiques thereof and alternative theories. It focuses on the meaning of probability, discussing some definitions and surveying their scope of applicability. The behavioral definition of subjective probability serves as a way to present the classical theories, culminating in Savage's theorem. The limitations of this result as a definition of probability lead to two directions - first, similar behavioral definitions of more general theories, such as non-additive probabilities and multiple priors, and second, cognitive derivations based on case-based techniques.

Applied Economic Forecasting Using Time Series Methods

Author : Eric Ghysels
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0190622016
Total Pages : 617 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (96 download)

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Book Synopsis Applied Economic Forecasting Using Time Series Methods by : Eric Ghysels

Download or read book Applied Economic Forecasting Using Time Series Methods written by Eric Ghysels and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2018 with total page 617 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic forecasting is a key ingredient of decision making in the public and private sectors. This book provides the necessary tools to solve real-world forecasting problems using time-series methods. It targets undergraduate and graduate students as well as researchers in public and private institutions interested in applied economic forecasting.

Econometric Models For Industrial Organization

Author : Matthew Shum
Publisher : World Scientific
ISBN 13 : 981310967X
Total Pages : 154 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (131 download)

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Book Synopsis Econometric Models For Industrial Organization by : Matthew Shum

Download or read book Econometric Models For Industrial Organization written by Matthew Shum and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2016-12-14 with total page 154 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic Models for Industrial Organization focuses on the specification and estimation of econometric models for research in industrial organization. In recent decades, empirical work in industrial organization has moved towards dynamic and equilibrium models, involving econometric methods which have features distinct from those used in other areas of applied economics. These lecture notes, aimed for a first or second-year PhD course, motivate and explain these econometric methods, starting from simple models and building to models with the complexity observed in typical research papers. The covered topics include discrete-choice demand analysis, models of dynamic behavior and dynamic games, multiple equilibria in entry games and partial identification, and auction models.

Estimation of Dynamic Econometric Models with Errors in Variables

Author : Jaime Terceiro Lomba
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642488102
Total Pages : 126 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (424 download)

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Book Synopsis Estimation of Dynamic Econometric Models with Errors in Variables by : Jaime Terceiro Lomba

Download or read book Estimation of Dynamic Econometric Models with Errors in Variables written by Jaime Terceiro Lomba and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 126 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A new procedure for the maximum-likelihood estimation of dynamic econometric models with errors in both endogenous and exogenous variables is presented in this monograph. A complete analytical development of the expressions used in problems of estimation and verification of models in state-space form is presented. The results are useful in relation not only to the problem of errors in variables but also to any other possible econometric application of state-space formulations.

Decision Economics: Minds, Machines, and their Society

Author : Edgardo Bucciarelli
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 9783030755829
Total Pages : 272 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (558 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Economics: Minds, Machines, and their Society by : Edgardo Bucciarelli

Download or read book Decision Economics: Minds, Machines, and their Society written by Edgardo Bucciarelli and published by Springer. This book was released on 2021-08-17 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is the result of a multi-year research project led and sponsored by the University of Chieti-Pescara, National Chengchi University, University of Salamanca, and Osaka University. It is the fifth volume to emerge from that international project, held under the aegis of the United Nations Academic Impact in 2020. All the essays in this volume were (virtually) discussed at the University of L’Aquila―as the venue of the 2nd International Conference on Decision Economics, a three-day global gathering of approximately one hundred scholars and practitioners—and were subjected to thorough peer review by leading experts in the field. The essays reflect the extent, diversity, and richness of several research areas, both normative and descriptive, and are an invaluable resource for graduate-level and PhD students, academics, researchers, policymakers and other professionals, especially in the social and cognitive sciences. Given its interdisciplinary scope, the book subsequently delivers new approaches on how to contribute to the future of economics, providing alternative explanations for various socio-economic issues such as computable humanities; cognitive, behavioural, and experimental perspectives in economics; data analysis and machine learning as well as research areas at the intersection of computer science, artificial intelligence, mathematics, and statistics; agent-based modelling and the related. The editors are grateful to the scientific committee for its continuous support throughout the research project as well as to the many participants for their insightful comments and always probing questions. In any case, the collaboration involved in the project extends far beyond the group of authors published in this volume and is reflected in the quality of the essays published over the years.

Developments of Control Theory for Economic Analysis

Author : Carlo Carraro
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9400934955
Total Pages : 355 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (9 download)

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Book Synopsis Developments of Control Theory for Economic Analysis by : Carlo Carraro

Download or read book Developments of Control Theory for Economic Analysis written by Carlo Carraro and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 355 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Giovanni Castellani Rector of the University of Venice This book contains the Proceedings of the Conference on "Economic Policy and Control Theory" which was held at the University of Venice (Italy) on 27 January-l February 1985. The goal of the Conference was to survey the main developments of control theory in economics, by emphasizing particularly new achievements in the analysis of dynamic economic models by con trol methods. The development of control theory is strictly related to the development of science and technology in the last forty years. Control theory was indeed applied mainly in engineering, and only in the sixties economists started using control methods for analys ing economic problems, even if some preliminary economic applica tions of calculus of variations, from which control theory was then developed, date back to the twenties. Applications of control theory in economics also had to solve new, complicated, problems, like those encountered in optimal growth models, or like the determination of the appropriate inter temporal social welfare function, of the policy horizon and the relative final state of the system, of the appropriate discount factor. Furthermore, the uncertainty characterizing economic models had to be taken into account, thus giving rise to the development of stochastic control theory in economics.