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Dynamic Decision Theory
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Book Synopsis Dynamic Decision Theory by : G. Haag
Download or read book Dynamic Decision Theory written by G. Haag and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 262 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Choice processes appear in all spheres of society. Hitherto ruling paradigms in the modelling of choice problems have presumed a competitive general equi librium which, however, proves insufficient for dynamic processes. This contribution aims at providing a general coherent and closed frame work for the dynamic modelling of decision processes. It was one of my main interests to build a bridge between the pure model building concepts and their practical applications. Therefore all given examples are related to empirical work. Solution algorithms for the estimation of trend parameters as well as the numerical simulation in concrete applications therefore playa central role in this contribution. Friendly relations with a number of colleagues from many universities in Europe, and the U.S. have emerged during the different applications. I wish to thank all of them. The international cooperations were mainly initiated and supported by conferences and workshops organized and financed by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (lIASA), the Istituto Ricerche Economico-Sociali Del Piemonte (I RES). the Institut National D 'Etudes De'mographiques (I NED), the Centre for Regional Science Research UmeJ. (CERUM) and the Projets de Cooperation et D'Echange avec France (Procop>' Special thanks go to the Volkswagen Stiftung for financial support of this work over the years. Thanks also go in particular to my friend and mentor Prof. W. Weidlich for his encouragement and for the many suggestions he made in fruitful discus sions and common work that have taken place over the years.
Book Synopsis The Dynamics of Rational Deliberation by : Brian Skyrms
Download or read book The Dynamics of Rational Deliberation written by Brian Skyrms and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 1990 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Brian Skyrms constructs a theory of "dynamic deliberation" and uses it to investigate rational decisionmaking in cases of strategic interaction. This illuminating book will be of great interest to all those in many disciplines who use decision theory and game theory to study human behavior and thought. Skyrms begins by discussing the Bayesian theory of individual rational decision and the classical theory of games, which at first glance seem antithetical in the criteria used for determining action. In his effort to show how methods for dealing with information feedback can be productively combined, the author skillfully leads us through the mazes of equilibrium selection, the Nash equilibria for normal and extensive forms, structural stability, causal decision theory, dynamic probability, the revision of beliefs, and, finally, good habits for decision. The author provides many clarifying illustrations and a handy appendix called "Deliberational Dynamics on Your Personal Computer." His powerful model has important implications for understanding the rational origins of convention and the social contract, the logic of nuclear deterrence, the theory of good habits, and the varied strategies of political and economic behavior.
Book Synopsis Dynamic Decision Theory by : Günter Haag
Download or read book Dynamic Decision Theory written by Günter Haag and published by Springer. This book was released on 2011-10-22 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Dynamic Economic Decision Making by : John E. Silvia
Download or read book Dynamic Economic Decision Making written by John E. Silvia and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-08-09 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive analysis of the macroeconomic and financial forces altering the economic landscape Financial decision-making requires one to anticipate how their decision will not only affect their business, but also the economic environment. Unfortunately, all too often, both private and public sector decision-makers view their decisions as one-off responses and fail to see their decisions within the context of an evolving decision-making framework. In Decision-Making in a Dynamic Economic Setting, John Silvia, Chief Economist of Wells Fargo and one of the top 5 economic forecasters according to Bloomberg News and USA Today, skillfully puts this discipline in perspective. Details realistic, decision-making approaches and applications under a broad set of economic scenarios Analyzes monetary policy and addresses the impact of financial regulations Examines business cycles and how to identify economic trends, how to deal with uncertainty and manage risk, the building blocks of growth, and strategies for innovation Decision-Making in a Dynamic Economic Setting details the real-world application of economic principles and financial strategy in making better business decisions.
Book Synopsis Dynamic Perspectives on Managerial Decision Making by : Herbert Dawid
Download or read book Dynamic Perspectives on Managerial Decision Making written by Herbert Dawid and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-09-15 with total page 518 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume collects research papers addressing topical issues in economics and management with a particular focus on dynamic models which allow to analyze and foster the decision making of firms in dynamic complex environments. The scope of the contributions ranges from daily operational challenges firms face to strategic choices in dynamic industry environments and the analysis of optimal growth paths. The volume also highlights recent methodological developments in the areas of dynamic optimization, dynamic games and meta-heuristics, which help to improve our understanding of (optimal) decision making in a fast evolving economy.
Download or read book Decision Theory written by John Bather and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2000-07-26 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision Theory An Introduction to Dynamic Programming and Sequential Decisions John Bather University of Sussex, UK Mathematical induction, and its use in solving optimization problems, is a topic of great interest with many applications. It enables us to study multistage decision problems by proceeding backwards in time, using a method called dynamic programming. All the techniques needed to solve the various problems are explained, and the author's fluent style will leave the reader with an avid interest in the subject. * Tailored to the needs of students of optimization and decision theory * Written in a lucid style with numerous examples and applications * Coverage of deterministic models: maximizing utilities, directed networks, shortest paths, critical path analysis, scheduling and convexity * Coverage of stochastic models: stochastic dynamic programming, optimal stopping problems and other special topics * Coverage of advanced topics: Markov decision processes, minimizing expected costs, policy improvements and problems with unknown statistical parameters * Contains exercises at the end of each chapter, with hints in an appendix Aimed primarily at students of mathematics and statistics, the lucid text will also appeal to engineering and science students and those working in the areas of optimization and operations research.
Book Synopsis The Dynamic Decision Maker by : Michael J. Driver
Download or read book The Dynamic Decision Maker written by Michael J. Driver and published by iUniverse. This book was released on 1998 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The insights offered in this book are intended to guarantee the reader a more successful career. It is written especially for managers and executives whose jobs require managing people successfully, but it is also written for anyone who must make decisions that involve other people. The authors discuss the decision styles and habits that people form and how to change decision-making habits where necessary. The models and techniques for decision making presented here have been used throughout the world in all kinds of businesses and government agencies. Decision style concepts can benefit anyone, from a new management trainee or MBA student to the CEO of a large firm.
Book Synopsis Forward-Looking Decision Making by : Robert E. Hall
Download or read book Forward-Looking Decision Making written by Robert E. Hall and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2010-02-08 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Individuals and families make key decisions that impact many aspects of financial stability and determine the future of the economy. These decisions involve balancing current sacrifice against future benefits. People have to decide how much to invest in health care, exercise, their diet, and insurance. They must decide how much debt to take on, and how much to save. And they make choices about jobs that determine employment and unemployment levels. Forward-Looking Decision Making is about modeling this individual or family-based decision making using an optimizing dynamic programming model. Robert Hall first reviews ideas about dynamic programs and introduces new ideas about numerical solutions and the representation of solved models as Markov processes. He surveys recent research on the parameters of preferences--the intertemporal elasticity of substitution, the Frisch elasticity of labor supply, and the Frisch cross-elasticity. He then examines dynamic programming models applied to health spending, long-term care insurance, employment, entrepreneurial risk-taking, and consumer debt. Linking theory with data and applying them to real-world problems, Forward-Looking Decision Making uses dynamic optimization programming models to shed light on individual behaviors and their economic implications.
Book Synopsis Dynamic Decision Theory and Probabilistic Information Processing by : Ward Edwards
Download or read book Dynamic Decision Theory and Probabilistic Information Processing written by Ward Edwards and published by . This book was released on 1962 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Rationality and Dynamic Choice by : Edward F. McClennen
Download or read book Rationality and Dynamic Choice written by Edward F. McClennen and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1990-05-25 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this major contribution to the theory of rational choice the author sets out the foundations of rational choice, and then sketches a dynamic choice framework in which principles of ordering and independence follow from a number of apparently plausible conditions. However there is potential conflict among these conditions, and when they are weakened to avoid it, the usual foundations of rational choice no longer prevail. The thrust of the argument is to suggest that the theory of rational choice is less determinate than many suppose.
Book Synopsis Practical Modelling of Dynamic Decision Making by : Rick Evertsz
Download or read book Practical Modelling of Dynamic Decision Making written by Rick Evertsz and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-03-23 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents TDF (Tactics Development Framework), a practical methodology for eliciting and engineering models of expert decision-making in dynamic domains. The authors apply the BDI (Beliefs, Desires, Intentions) paradigm to the elicitation and modelling of dynamic decision making expertise, including team behaviour, and map it to a diagrammatic representation that is intuitive to domain experts. The book will be of value to researchers and practitioners engaged in dynamic decision making.
Book Synopsis Goal-Directed Decision Making by : Richard W. Morris
Download or read book Goal-Directed Decision Making written by Richard W. Morris and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2018-08-23 with total page 484 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Goal-Directed Decision Making: Computations and Neural Circuits examines the role of goal-directed choice. It begins with an examination of the computations performed by associated circuits, but then moves on to in-depth examinations on how goal-directed learning interacts with other forms of choice and response selection. This is the only book that embraces the multidisciplinary nature of this area of decision-making, integrating our knowledge of goal-directed decision-making from basic, computational, clinical, and ethology research into a single resource that is invaluable for neuroscientists, psychologists and computer scientists alike. The book presents discussions on the broader field of decision-making and how it has expanded to incorporate ideas related to flexible behaviors, such as cognitive control, economic choice, and Bayesian inference, as well as the influences that motivation, context and cues have on behavior and decision-making. Details the neural circuits functionally involved in goal-directed decision-making and the computations these circuits perform Discusses changes in goal-directed decision-making spurred by development and disorders, and within real-world applications, including social contexts and addiction Synthesizes neuroscience, psychology and computer science research to offer a unique perspective on the central and emerging issues in goal-directed decision-making
Book Synopsis Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty by : Vincent A. W. J. Marchau
Download or read book Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty written by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-04 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.
Book Synopsis Efficiency versus Sustainability in Dynamic Decision Making by : Bodo Glaser
Download or read book Efficiency versus Sustainability in Dynamic Decision Making written by Bodo Glaser and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To all who taught me, and to all who will. Over the past fifteen years the notions of efficiency and sustainability have, more than any others, influenced the academic and public discussion concerning the intertemporal allocation of resources, especially as regards the economics of growth and environment. This treatise formally develops and counterposes these notions by means of the construct of a trajectorial objective, which is here developed, along with its implications, as a natural advance upon the classical scalar objective. In the course of this study it becomes clear that efficiency and sustainability are by no means identical, given that efficiency, on the one hand, is the concept for avoiding wasteful behavior, and sustainability, on the other, is the concept for ensuring that certain critical aspiration levels, which usually reflect the wish for survival, are maintained. Nonetheless, contrary to what may be assumed, these two concepts do not generally yield mutually exclusive solutions; in fact, they can be combined to complement each other in the quest for unimprovable long-term solutions which sustain given and necessary aspiration levels. This treatise develops and analyzes dynamic decision models (DDM) with one trajectorial objective according to the methodology of multi criteria decision making (MCDM). Moreover, introducing the method of distance maximization crucially augments MCDM and proves to be invaluable for DDMs in the case of a nonexistent utopia trajectory as well as in the case of sustainability as objective.
Book Synopsis Introduction to Formal Philosophy by : Sven Ove Hansson
Download or read book Introduction to Formal Philosophy written by Sven Ove Hansson and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-10-24 with total page 733 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Undergraduate Textbook introduces key methods and examines the major areas of philosophy in which formal methods play pivotal roles. Coverage begins with a thorough introduction to formalization and to the advantages and pitfalls of formal methods in philosophy. The ensuing chapters show how to use formal methods in a wide range of areas. Throughout, the contributors clarify the relationships and interdependencies between formal and informal notions and constructions. Their main focus is to show how formal treatments of philosophical problems may help us understand them better. Formal methods can be used to solve problems but also to express new philosophical problems that would never have seen the light of day without the expressive power of the formal apparatus. Formal philosophy merges work in different areas of philosophy as well as logic, mathematics, computer science, linguistics, physics, psychology, biology, economics, political theory, and sociology. This title offers an accessible introduction to this new interdisciplinary research area to a wide academic audience.
Download or read book Decision Theory written by Bather and published by Halsted Press. This book was released on 2001-05 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Decision Making Under Uncertainty by : Mykel J. Kochenderfer
Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Mykel J. Kochenderfer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.
