Does Speculation With Agricultural Commodity Futures Cause Price Bubbles In The Event Of Negative Production Shocks

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Does speculation with agricultural commodity futures cause price bubbles in the event of negative production shocks?

Author : Tobias Thürer
Publisher : Logos Verlag Berlin GmbH
ISBN 13 : 3832538763
Total Pages : 222 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (325 download)

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Book Synopsis Does speculation with agricultural commodity futures cause price bubbles in the event of negative production shocks? by : Tobias Thürer

Download or read book Does speculation with agricultural commodity futures cause price bubbles in the event of negative production shocks? written by Tobias Thürer and published by Logos Verlag Berlin GmbH. This book was released on 2016-02-05 with total page 222 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the mid 2000s, an increasing financialization of commodity futures markets is taking place. This has fueled an ongoing discussion about the effect of financial investments on the development of commodity prices. Against this background, the trading activities of financial speculators also come to the fore. There is the concern that such speculators can cause irrational overshootings of agricultural commodity prices, e.g. in the event of global production shocks. In such an event the decrease of total supply induces a price surge menacing food security in developing countries. Yet, the question emerges whether speculation aggravates this price increase, eventually inducing a price bubble. The relevance of this concern is reinforced by the fact that due to climate change an increased frequency and severity of global agricultural production shortfalls is at stake. If speculation evokes an additional threat to food security in the event of a production shock, the political agenda should not be confined to focus solely on the adaptation to climate change. Instead, it is then also necessary to address speculative activities on agricultural commodity markets. This book scrutinises whether speculative bubbles can be identified in the event of severe global production shocks. For this, a framework for tracing the transmission of the futures price's development on the spot market is developed. Using annual data from 1979-2012 for maize it is analysed whether production shock related price bubbles occurred.

Effective corruption control

Author : Annika Engelbert
Publisher : Logos Verlag Berlin GmbH
ISBN 13 : 3832542515
Total Pages : 172 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (325 download)

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Book Synopsis Effective corruption control by : Annika Engelbert

Download or read book Effective corruption control written by Annika Engelbert and published by Logos Verlag Berlin GmbH. This book was released on 2016-05-16 with total page 172 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents the results of a three-year research project based at the Ruhr-University Bochum, financed by the Fritz Thyssen Foundation, Cologne. Corruption in public procurement is widespread and particularly damaging to development objectives, as it undermines any state's duty to maximize the social and economic welfare of its citizens. Yet, research on country-specific regulation meant to address this problem has remained scarce. This book aims to fill this gap by providing a systematic comparative analysis of supplier remedies mechanisms in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania. It elaborates on the potential of legal remedies to serve as anticorruption tools. Based on the fact that the anti-corruption effect of remedies mechanisms depends ultimately on the actual use by suppliers, three main factors are discussed: (1) the institutional setting and independence of the remedies systems; (2) their accessibility for aggrieved bidders; and (3) their efficiency, driven by bidder's cost-benefit analysis and including the aspects of procedural fees, duration, available relief and prospects of success. The assessment of the legislation is complemented by information gained from various stakeholders such as public procurement authorities, development organizations, NGOs and scientific experts. Despite many similarities of the systems due to their common historical background, the analysis identifies remarkably different regulative and institutional approaches, and discusses their more or less supportive effects on the use of supplier remedies mechanisms.

Oil Abundance and Economic Growth

Author : Elkhan Richard Sadik-Zada
Publisher : Logos Verlag Berlin GmbH
ISBN 13 : 3832543422
Total Pages : 184 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (325 download)

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Book Synopsis Oil Abundance and Economic Growth by : Elkhan Richard Sadik-Zada

Download or read book Oil Abundance and Economic Growth written by Elkhan Richard Sadik-Zada and published by Logos Verlag Berlin GmbH. This book was released on 2016-11-07 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book deals with the role of oil abundance in economic growth. The major theoretical contribution of the analysis is the transformation of the rentier state theory into the language of mathematical economics. The mathematical formalization of the rentier state theory enables a more sophisticated analytical tool for the assessment of the role of nonrenewable resource revenues in economic growth and institutional dynamics. The embedding of the elements of a rentier state into the labor surplus economy framework leads to grave consequences as reflected in the quantitative part of the survey. The augmented labor surplus economy model shows that both the political economy and the purely economic causes of the resource curse can have similar effects on the resource allocation in the affected nation. Hence, it is not possible to use econometric tools to compartmentalize the effects of the Dutch disease and those explanations based upon political economy. This is the reason why one can only estimate the total growth effects of oil revenues. Besides cross-country panel estimations, a case study of Azerbaijan provides additional insights into petroleum based economic development. These international panel and country specific estimations are partly based on the two sector model of economic growth. In the case of Azerbaijan, a vector error correction model, which is based upon the behavioral model of the equilibrium exchange rate, is applied to detect the Dutch disease tendencies.

A Real Options Approach to Renewable and Nuclear Energy Investments in the Philippine

Author : Casper Boongaling Agaton
Publisher : Logos Verlag Berlin GmbH
ISBN 13 : 3832549382
Total Pages : 124 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (325 download)

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Book Synopsis A Real Options Approach to Renewable and Nuclear Energy Investments in the Philippine by : Casper Boongaling Agaton

Download or read book A Real Options Approach to Renewable and Nuclear Energy Investments in the Philippine written by Casper Boongaling Agaton and published by Logos Verlag Berlin GmbH. This book was released on 2019-07-10 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents the application of real options approach (ROA) to analyze investment decisions for switching energy sources from fossil fuels to alternative energy. Using the Philippines as a case, the ROA models presented here explore how uncertainties including fossil fuel prices, electricity prices, discount rates, externality, renewable energy (RE) costs, and RE investment growth affect investment decisions that focus on developing countries, particularly to fossil-importing countries. The book is a collection of academic papers published in peer-reviewed journals. The first paper analyzes investments in various RE sources including wind, solar, hydropower, and geothermal over using coal. The second paper compares investments between RE and nuclear energy considering the risk of nuclear accident. The third paper applies the proposed ROA model with the case of Palawan island and analyzes investment in RE over diesel fuel for electricity generation. The fourth paper focuses on investment drivers that make RE sources as a better option than using fossil fuels.

From the City to the Desert

Author : Raffael Beier
Publisher : Logos Verlag Berlin GmbH
ISBN 13 : 383254951X
Total Pages : 335 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (325 download)

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Book Synopsis From the City to the Desert by : Raffael Beier

Download or read book From the City to the Desert written by Raffael Beier and published by Logos Verlag Berlin GmbH. This book was released on 2019-08-23 with total page 335 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years, large-scale housing and resettlement projects have experienced a renaissance in many developing countries and are increasingly shaping new urban peripheries. One prominent example is Morocco's Villes Sans Bidonville (cities without shantytowns) programme that aims at eradicating all shantytowns in Morocco by resettling its population to apartment blocks at the urban peripheries. Analysing the specific resettlement project of Karyan Central, a 90-year-old shantytown in Casablanca, this book sheds light on both process and outcome of resettlement from the perspective of affected people. It draws on rich empirical data from a structure household survey (n=871), qualitative interviews with different stakeholder, document analysis, and non-participant observation gathered during four months of field research. The author emphasises that the VSB programme, although formally part of anti-poverty and urban inclusion policies, puts primary focus on the clearance of the shantytown. Largely based on ill-informed policy assumptions, stigmatisation, rent-seeking, and opaque implementation practices, the VSB programme interpreted adequate housing in a narrow sense. By showing how social interactions, employment patterns, and access to urban functions have changed because of resettlement, the book provides sound empirical evidence that housing means more than four walls and a roof.

Does Speculation Drive Commodity Prices? Evidence from the Market for Corn

Author : Niklas Humann
Publisher : GRIN Verlag
ISBN 13 : 3346496171
Total Pages : 46 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (464 download)

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Book Synopsis Does Speculation Drive Commodity Prices? Evidence from the Market for Corn by : Niklas Humann

Download or read book Does Speculation Drive Commodity Prices? Evidence from the Market for Corn written by Niklas Humann and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2021-09-22 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2020 in the subject Economics - Finance, grade: 1,0, University of Münster, language: English, abstract: This seminar paper reviews the literature on futures markets as well as the recent food crisis and presents an empirical investigation of the influence of (index) speculation on the corn price. My findings are in line with most of the other empirical conclusions that, rather than speculation, factors from the real and monetary economy played a role in the spike of commodity prices. For centuries, corn has been one of the most produced crops in the world, used to feed people, livestock and machines. During the last quarter of the twentieth-century, world food prices declined by more than 50 percent, thereby improving the nourishment of people all over the world. However, this extensive decline also raised calls for protectionist policies, aimed at defending the welfare of commodity producers. Starting in the early 2000s, all classes of commodities have experienced hefty price increases. The price for corn increased by more than 250 percent in roughly three years (2005-2008). The resulting food crisis devastated low-income communities around the globe, with the already large part of their income they spent on food becoming even more substantial, causing hunger and malnutrition. While a variety of explanations for this crisis have been offered, some were quick to blame excessive (index) speculation.

Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy

Author : Matthias Kalkuhl
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319282018
Total Pages : 620 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (192 download)

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Book Synopsis Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy by : Matthias Kalkuhl

Download or read book Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy written by Matthias Kalkuhl and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-12 with total page 620 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides fresh insights into concepts, methods and new research findings on the causes of excessive food price volatility. It also discusses the implications for food security and policy responses to mitigate excessive volatility. The approaches applied by the contributors range from on-the-ground surveys, to panel econometrics and innovative high-frequency time series analysis as well as computational economics methods. It offers policy analysts and decision-makers guidance on dealing with extreme volatility.

Bubbles, Food Prices, and Speculation

Author : Nicole M. Aulerich
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (844 download)

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Book Synopsis Bubbles, Food Prices, and Speculation by : Nicole M. Aulerich

Download or read book Bubbles, Food Prices, and Speculation written by Nicole M. Aulerich and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The "Masters Hypothesis" is the claim that unprecedented buying pressure from new financial index investors created a massive bubble in agricultural futures prices at various times in recent years. This paper analyzes the market impact of financial index investment in agricultural futures markets using non-public data from the Large Trader Reporting System (LTRS) maintained by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The LTRS data are superior to publicly-available data because commodity index trader (CIT) positions are available on a daily basis, positions are disaggregated by contract maturity, and positions before 2006 can be reliably estimated. Bivariate Granger causality tests use CIT positions in terms of both the change in aggregate new net flows into index investments and the rolling of existing index positions from one contract to another. The null hypothesis of no impact of aggregate CIT positions on daily returns is rejected in only 3 of the 12 markets. Point estimates of the cumulative impact of a one standard deviation increase in CIT positions on daily returns are negative and very small, averaging only about two basis points. The null hypothesis that CIT positions do not impact daily returns in a data-defined roll period is rejected in 5 of the 12 markets and estimated cumulative impacts are negative in all 12 markets; the opposite of the expected outcome if CIT rolling activity simultaneously pressures nearby prices downward and first deferred prices upward. Overall, the results add to the growing body of literature showing that buying pressure from financial index investment in recent years did not cause massive bubbles in agricultural futures prices.

The Economics of Food Price Volatility

Author : Jean-Paul Chavas
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 022612892X
Total Pages : 394 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (261 download)

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Book Synopsis The Economics of Food Price Volatility by : Jean-Paul Chavas

Download or read book The Economics of Food Price Volatility written by Jean-Paul Chavas and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2014-10-14 with total page 394 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The conference was organized by the three editors of this book and took place on August 15-16, 2012 in Seattle."--Preface.

Reauthorization of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Author : United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 528 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (319 download)

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Book Synopsis Reauthorization of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission by : United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry

Download or read book Reauthorization of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission written by United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 528 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation

Author : Samya Beidas-Strom
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498333486
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)

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Book Synopsis Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation by : Samya Beidas-Strom

Download or read book Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation written by Samya Beidas-Strom and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-12-12 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How much does speculation contribute to oil price volatility? We revisit this contentious question by estimating a sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (SVAR). First, using a simple storage model, we show that revisions to expectations regarding oil market fundamentals and the effect of mispricing in oil derivative markets can be observationally equivalent in a SVAR model of the world oil market à la Kilian and Murphy (2013), since both imply a positive co-movement of oil prices and inventories. Second, we impose additional restrictions on the set of admissible models embodying the assumption that the impact from noise trading shocks in oil derivative markets is temporary. Our additional restrictions effectively put a bound on the contribution of speculation to short-term oil price volatility (lying between 3 and 22 percent). This estimated short-run impact is smaller than that of flow demand shocks but possibly larger than that of flow supply shocks.

Commodity Price Dynamics

Author : Craig Pirrong
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139501976
Total Pages : 238 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (395 download)

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Book Synopsis Commodity Price Dynamics by : Craig Pirrong

Download or read book Commodity Price Dynamics written by Craig Pirrong and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2011-10-31 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.

Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications

Author : Mr.Stijn Claessens
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475561008
Total Pages : 66 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications by : Mr.Stijn Claessens

Download or read book Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications written by Mr.Stijn Claessens and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-30 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.

Hearing to Review Derivatives Legislation

Author : United States. Congress. House. Committee on Agriculture
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 300 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Hearing to Review Derivatives Legislation by : United States. Congress. House. Committee on Agriculture

Download or read book Hearing to Review Derivatives Legislation written by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Agriculture and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report

Author : Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission
Publisher : Cosimo, Inc.
ISBN 13 : 1616405414
Total Pages : 692 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (164 download)

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Book Synopsis The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report by : Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission

Download or read book The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report written by Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2011-05-01 with total page 692 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report, published by the U.S. Government and the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission in early 2011, is the official government report on the United States financial collapse and the review of major financial institutions that bankrupted and failed, or would have without help from the government. The commission and the report were implemented after Congress passed an act in 2009 to review and prevent fraudulent activity. The report details, among other things, the periods before, during, and after the crisis, what led up to it, and analyses of subprime mortgage lending, credit expansion and banking policies, the collapse of companies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the federal bailouts of Lehman and AIG. It also discusses the aftermath of the fallout and our current state. This report should be of interest to anyone concerned about the financial situation in the U.S. and around the world.THE FINANCIAL CRISIS INQUIRY COMMISSION is an independent, bi-partisan, government-appointed panel of 10 people that was created to "examine the causes, domestic and global, of the current financial and economic crisis in the United States." It was established as part of the Fraud Enforcement and Recovery Act of 2009. The commission consisted of private citizens with expertise in economics and finance, banking, housing, market regulation, and consumer protection. They examined and reported on "the collapse of major financial institutions that failed or would have failed if not for exceptional assistance from the government."News Dissector DANNY SCHECHTER is a journalist, blogger and filmmaker. He has been reporting on economic crises since the 1980's when he was with ABC News. His film In Debt We Trust warned of the economic meltdown in 2006. He has since written three books on the subject including Plunder: Investigating Our Economic Calamity (Cosimo Books, 2008), and The Crime Of Our Time: Why Wall Street Is Not Too Big to Jail (Disinfo Books, 2011), a companion to his latest film Plunder The Crime Of Our Time. He can be reached online at www.newsdissector.com.

Safeguarding Food Security in Volatile Global Markets

Author : Adam Prakash
Publisher : Bright Sparks
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 620 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (31 download)

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Book Synopsis Safeguarding Food Security in Volatile Global Markets by : Adam Prakash

Download or read book Safeguarding Food Security in Volatile Global Markets written by Adam Prakash and published by Bright Sparks. This book was released on 2011 with total page 620 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timely publication as world leaders deliberate the causes of the latest bouts of food price volatility and search for solutions that address the recent velocity of financial, economic, political, demographic, and climatic change. As a collection compiled from a diverse group of economists, analysts, traders, institutions and policy formulators - comprising multiple methodologies and viewpoints - the book exposes the impact of volatility on global food security, with particular focus on the world's most vulnerable.

The Rice Crisis

Author : David Dawe
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1136530398
Total Pages : 394 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (365 download)

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Book Synopsis The Rice Crisis by : David Dawe

Download or read book The Rice Crisis written by David Dawe and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2012-07-26 with total page 394 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent escalation of world food prices – particularly for cereals - prompted mass public indignation and demonstrations in many countries, from the price of tortilla flour in Mexico to that of rice in the Philippines and pasta in Italy. The crisis has important implications for future government trade and food security policies, as countries re-evaluate their reliance on potentially more volatile world markets to augment domestic supplies of staple foods. This book examines how government policies caused and responded to soaring world prices in the particular case of rice, which is the world's most important source of calories for the poor. Comparable case studies of policy reactions in different countries, principally across Asia, but also including the USA, provide the understanding necessary to evaluate the impact of trade policy on the food security of poor farmers and consumers. They also provide important insights into the concerns of developing countries that are relevant for future international trade negotiations in key agricultural commodities. As a result, more appropriate policies can be put in place to ensure more stable food supplies in the future. Published with the Food and Agriculture (FAO) Organization of the United Nations