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Does Aggregation Bias Explain The Ppp Puzzle
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Book Synopsis Does "aggregation Bias" Explain the PPP Puzzle? by : Shiu-Sheng Chen
Download or read book Does "aggregation Bias" Explain the PPP Puzzle? written by Shiu-Sheng Chen and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Recently, Imbs et. al. (2002) have claimed that much of the purchasing power parity puzzle can be explained by 'aggregation bias'. This paper re-examines aggregation bias. First, it clarifies the meaning of aggregation bias and its applicability to the PPP puzzle. Second, the size of the 'bias' is shown to be much smaller than the simulations in Imbs et. al. (2002) suggest, if we rule out explosive roots in the simulations. Third, we show that the presence of non-persistent measurement error especially in the Imbs et. al. (2002) data can make price series appear less persistent than they really are. Finally, it is now standard to recognize that small-sample bias plagues estimates of speeds of convergence of PPP. After correcting small sample bias by methods proposed by Kilian (1998) and by So and Shin (1999), the half-life estimates indicate that heterogeneity and aggregation bias do not help to solve the PPP puzzle"--NBER website
Book Synopsis 'Aggregation Bias' Does Explain the PPP Puzzle by : Jean Imbs
Download or read book 'Aggregation Bias' Does Explain the PPP Puzzle written by Jean Imbs and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This article summarizes our views on the role of an "aggregation bias" in explaining the PPP (i.e. purchasing power parity) Puzzle, in response to the several papers recently written in reaction to our initial contribution. We discuss in particular the criticisms of Imbs, Mumtaz, Ravn and Rey (2002) presented in Chen and Engel (2005). We show that their contentions are based on: (i) analytical counter-examples which are not empirically relevant; (ii) simulation results minimizing the extent of "aggregation bias"; (iii) unfounded claims on the impact of measurement errors on our results; and (iv) problematic implementation of small-sample bias corrections. We conclude, as in our original paper, that "aggregation bias" goes a long way towards explaining the PPP puzzle"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.
Book Synopsis PPP Strikes Back by : Mr. Haroon Mumtaz
Download or read book PPP Strikes Back written by Mr. Haroon Mumtaz and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-04-01 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We show the importance of a dynamic aggregation bias in accounting for the PPP puzzle. We prove that established time-series and panel methods substantially exaggerate the persistence of real exchange rates because of heterogeneity in the dynamics of disaggregated relative prices. When heterogeneity is properly taken into account, estimates of the real exchange rate half-life fall dramatically, to little more than one year, or significantly below Rogoff''s "consensus view" of three to five years. We show that corrected estimates are consistent with plausible nominal rigidities, thus, arguably, solving the PPP puzzle.
Book Synopsis Purchasing Power Parity and Real Exchange Rates by : Mark P. Taylor
Download or read book Purchasing Power Parity and Real Exchange Rates written by Mark P. Taylor and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-09-13 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The term Purchasing Power Parity may date from the early twentieth century, when it was coined by the Swedish economist Gustav Cassel, but the underlying concept had been enjoying varying degrees of success since its development in sixteenth century Spain. Even towards the end of the twentieth century, and especially since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates, PPP and the stability of real exchange rates continued to be the subject of academic debate. This volume brings together essays covering aspects of current thinking on Purchasing Power Parity, from the various ways in which to test for its existence, to its appearance in different economies around the world, to examinations of the explanations given when PPP does not appear to hold This book was published as a special issue of Applied Financial Economics. The academic editor of this journal is Mark P. Taylor.
Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Economics by : Ronald MacDonald
Download or read book Exchange Rate Economics written by Ronald MacDonald and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2005 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ''In summary, the book is valuable as a textbook both at the advanced undergraduate level and at the graduate level. It is also very useful for the economist who wants to be brought up-to-date on theoretical and empirical research on exchange rate behaviour.'' ""Journal of International Economics""
Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Economics by : Ronald MacDonald
Download or read book Exchange Rate Economics written by Ronald MacDonald and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2007-03-12 with total page 465 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: First published in 2007. Exchange Rate Economics: Theories and Evidence is the second edition of Floating Exchange Rates: Theories and Evidence, and builds on the successful content and structure of the previous edition, but has been comprehensively updated and expanded to include additional literature on the determination of both fixed and floating exchange rates. Core topics covered include: • the purchasing power parity hypothesis and the PPP puzzle; • the monetary and portfolio-balance approaches to exchange rates; • the new open economy macroeconomics approach to exchange rates; and • the determination of exchange rates in target zone models and speculative attack models. Exchange Rate Economics: Theories and Evidence also includes extensive discussion of recent econometric work on exchange rates with a particular focus on equilibrium exchange rates and measuring exchange rate misalignment, as well as discussion on the non-fundamentals-based approaches to exchange rate behaviour, such as the market microstructure approach. The book will appeal to academics and postgraduate students with an interest in all aspects of international finance and will also be of interest to practitioners concerned with issues relating to equilibrium exchange rates and the forecastability of currencies in terms of macroeconomic fundamentals.
Book Synopsis Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Dynamics by : P. Karadeloglou
Download or read book Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Dynamics written by P. Karadeloglou and published by Springer. This book was released on 2008-02-13 with total page 255 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book looks at the PPP persistence puzzle, and econometric aspects of exchange rate dynamics and their implications. It also explores the importance of exchange rate dynamics in the pass-through effects (PTE) and the econometric aspects of the exchange rates dynamics linked to structural shocks on different economies.
Book Synopsis The Equity Home Bias Puzzle by : Ian Cooper
Download or read book The Equity Home Bias Puzzle written by Ian Cooper and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 133 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Home bias - the empirical phenomenon that investors assign anomalously high weights to their own domestic assets - has puzzled academics for decades: financial theory predicts that an internationally well diversified portfolio of stocks and short-term bonds can reduce risk significantly without affecting expected return. Although the globalization of international equity markets has increased international investments, equity portfolios remain severely home biased today, and no single explanation seems to solve the puzzle completely. In this paper, we first provide a thorough description of the equity home bias phenomenon by defining, discussing, and applying the competing measures and presenting some estimates of the costs of under-diversification. Second, we evaluate the explanations for the equity home bias proposed in the literature such as information asymmetries, behavioral aspects, barriers to foreign investment, and governance issues, and conclude that each explanation on its own falls short, suggesting that the equity home bias probably reflects a combination of factors. Lastly, we review the implications of international under-diversification for portfolio formation and the cost of capital of companies.
Book Synopsis Currencies, Commodities and Consumption by : Kenneth W. Clements
Download or read book Currencies, Commodities and Consumption written by Kenneth W. Clements and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013-01-31 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discusses economic issues associated with exchange rates, commodity prices, the economic size of countries and alternatives to PPP exchange rates.
Book Synopsis Forecasting and Hedging in the Foreign Exchange Markets by : Christian Ullrich
Download or read book Forecasting and Hedging in the Foreign Exchange Markets written by Christian Ullrich and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-05-30 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Historical and recent developments at international ?nancial markets show that it is easy to loose money, while it is dif?cult to predict future developments and op- mize decision-making towards maximizing returns and minimizing risk. One of the reasons of our inability to make reliable predictions and to make optimal decisions is the growing complexity of the global economy. This is especially true for the f- eign exchange market (FX market) which is considered as one of the largest and most liquid ?nancial markets. Its grade of ef?ciencyand its complexityis one of the starting points of this volume. From the high complexity of the FX market, Christian Ullrich deduces the - cessity to use tools from machine learning and arti?cial intelligence, e.g., support vector machines, and to combine such methods with sophisticated ?nancial mod- ing techniques. The suitability of this combination of ideas is demonstrated by an empirical study and by simulation. I am pleased to introduce this book to its - dience, hoping that it will provide the reader with interesting ideas to support the understanding of FX markets and to help to improve risk management in dif?cult times. Moreover, I hope that its publication will stimulate further research to contribute to the solution of the many open questions in this area.
Book Synopsis Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2018 by : World Bank
Download or read book Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2018 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2018-12-10 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The World Bank Group has two overarching goals: End extreme poverty by 2030 and promote shared prosperity by boosting the incomes of the bottom 40 percent of the population in each economy. As this year’s Poverty and Shared Prosperity report documents, the world continues to make progress toward these goals. In 2015, approximately one-tenth of the world’s population lived in extreme poverty, and the incomes of the bottom 40 percent rose in 77 percent of economies studied. But success cannot be taken for granted. Poverty remains high in Sub- Saharan Africa, as well as in fragile and conflict-affected states. At the same time, most of the world’s poor now live in middle-income countries, which tend to have higher national poverty lines. This year’s report tracks poverty comparisons at two higher poverty thresholds—$3.20 and $5.50 per day—which are typical of standards in lower- and upper-middle-income countries. In addition, the report introduces a societal poverty line based on each economy’s median income or consumption. Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2018: Piecing Together the Poverty Puzzle also recognizes that poverty is not only about income and consumption—and it introduces a multidimensional poverty measure that adds other factors, such as access to education, electricity, drinking water, and sanitation. It also explores how inequality within households could affect the global profile of the poor. All these additional pieces enrich our understanding of the poverty puzzle, bringing us closer to solving it. For more information, please visit worldbank.org/PSP
Book Synopsis Exchange-Rate Dynamics by : Martin D. D. Evans
Download or read book Exchange-Rate Dynamics written by Martin D. D. Evans and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-03-14 with total page 561 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive and in-depth look at exchange-rate dynamics Variations in the foreign exchange market influence all aspects of the world economy, and understanding these dynamics is one of the great challenges of international economics. This book provides a new, comprehensive, and in-depth examination of the standard theories and latest research in exchange-rate economics. Covering a vast swath of theoretical and empirical work, the book explores established theories of exchange-rate determination using macroeconomic fundamentals, and presents unique microbased approaches that combine the insights of microstructure models with the macroeconomic forces driving currency trading. Macroeconomic models have long assumed that agents—households, firms, financial institutions, and central banks—all have the same information about the structure of the economy and therefore hold the same expectations and uncertainties regarding foreign currency returns. Microbased models, however, look at how heterogeneous information influences the trading decisions of agents and becomes embedded in exchange rates. Replicating key features of actual currency markets, these microbased models generate a rich array of empirical predictions concerning trading patterns and exchange-rate dynamics that are strongly supported by data. The models also show how changing macroeconomic conditions exert an influence on short-term exchange-rate dynamics via their impact on currency trading. Designed for graduate courses in international macroeconomics, international finance, and finance, and as a go-to reference for researchers in international economics, Exchange-Rate Dynamics guides readers through a range of literature on exchange-rate determination, offering fresh insights for further reading and research. Comprehensive and in-depth examination of the latest research in exchange-rate economics Outlines theoretical and empirical research across the spectrum of modeling approaches Presents new results on the importance of currency trading in exchange-rate determination Provides new perspectives on long-standing puzzles in exchange-rate economics End-of-chapter questions cement key ideas
Download or read book PPP Strikes Back written by Mr.Jean Imbs and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-04-01 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We show the importance of a dynamic aggregation bias in accounting for the PPP puzzle. We prove that established time-series and panel methods substantially exaggerate the persistence of real exchange rates because of heterogeneity in the dynamics of disaggregated relative prices. When heterogeneity is properly taken into account, estimates of the real exchange rate half-life fall dramatically, to little more than one year, or significantly below Rogoff's "consensus view" of three to five years. We show that corrected estimates are consistent with plausible nominal rigidities, thus, arguably, solving the PPP puzzle.
Book Synopsis NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000 by : Ben Bernanke
Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000 written by Ben Bernanke and published by Mit Press. This book was released on 2001-02-19 with total page 418 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The NBER Macroeconomics Annual presents, extends, and applies pioneering work in macroeconomics and stimulates work by macroeconomists on important policy issues. Each paper in the Annual is followed by comments and discussion.
Book Synopsis Estimating Trade Elasticities by : Jaime Marquez
Download or read book Estimating Trade Elasticities written by Jaime Marquez and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-14 with total page 147 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: One cannot exaggerate the importance of estimating how international trade responds to changes in income and prices. But there is a tension between whether one should use models that fit the data but that contradict certain aspects of the underlying theory or models that fit the theory but contradict certain aspects of the data. The essays in Estimating Trade Elasticities book offer one practical approach to deal with this tension. The analysis starts with the practical implications of optimising behaviour for estimation and it follows with a re-examination of the puzzling income elasticity for US imports that three decades of studies have not resolved. The analysis then turns to the study of the role of income and prices in determining the expansion in Asian trade, a study largely neglected in fifty years of research. With the new estimates of trade elasticities, the book examines how they assist in restoring the consistency between elasticity estimates and the world trade identity.
Download or read book Making It Big written by Andrea Ciani and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2020-10-08 with total page 178 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic and social progress requires a diverse ecosystem of firms that play complementary roles. Making It Big: Why Developing Countries Need More Large Firms constitutes one of the most up-to-date assessments of how large firms are created in low- and middle-income countries and their role in development. It argues that large firms advance a range of development objectives in ways that other firms do not: large firms are more likely to innovate, export, and offer training and are more likely to adopt international standards of quality, among other contributions. Their particularities are closely associated with productivity advantages and translate into improved outcomes not only for their owners but also for their workers and for smaller enterprises in their value chains. The challenge for economic development, however, is that production does not reach economic scale in low- and middle-income countries. Why are large firms scarcer in developing countries? Drawing on a rare set of data from public and private sources, as well as proprietary data from the International Finance Corporation and case studies, this book shows that large firms are often born large—or with the attributes of largeness. In other words, what is distinct about them is often in place from day one of their operations. To fill the “missing top†? of the firm-size distribution with additional large firms, governments should support the creation of such firms by opening markets to greater competition. In low-income countries, this objective can be achieved through simple policy reorientation, such as breaking oligopolies, removing unnecessary restrictions to international trade and investment, and establishing strong rules to prevent the abuse of market power. Governments should also strive to ensure that private actors have the skills, technology, intelligence, infrastructure, and finance they need to create large ventures. Additionally, they should actively work to spread the benefits from production at scale across the largest possible number of market participants. This book seeks to bring frontier thinking and evidence on the role and origins of large firms to a wide range of readers, including academics, development practitioners and policy makers.
Book Synopsis Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing-power-parity Puzzle? by : Alan M. Taylor
Download or read book Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing-power-parity Puzzle? written by Alan M. Taylor and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The PPP puzzle is based on empirical evidence that international price differences for individual goods (LOOP) or baskets of goods (PPP) appear highly persistent or even non-stationary. The present consensus is these price differences have a half-life that is of the order of five years at best, and infinity at worst. This seems unreasonable in a world where transportation and transaction costs appear so low as to encourage arbitrage and the convergence of price gaps over much shorter horizons, typically days or weeks. However, current empirics rely on a particular choice of methodology, involving (i) relatively low-frequency monthly, quarterly, or annual data, and (ii) a linear model specification. In fact, these methodological choices are not innocent, and they can be shown to bias analysis to-wards findings of slow convergence and a random walk. Intuitively, if we suspect that the actual adjustment horizon is of the order of days then monthly and annual data cannot be expected to reveal it. If we suspect arbitrage costs are high enough to produce a substantial band of inaction' then a linear model will fail to support convergence if the process spends considerable time random-walking in that band. Thus, when testing for PPP or LOOP, model specification and data sampling should not proceed without consideration of the actual institutional context and logistical framework of markets.
