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Author : Olan Henry
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780734025234
Total Pages : 25 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (252 download)
Download or read book Do Stock Market Returns Predict Changes to Output? written by Olan Henry and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : David G. McMillan
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 45 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)
Download or read book Does the Stock Market Predict Macro-Variables? written by David G. McMillan and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Movements in the stock market should reflect expectations regarding future economic conditions and lead the macroeconomy. However, evidence for stock returns providing such predictive power is mixed. We argue this arises as stock returns are noisy and consider the predictive ability of derived expected returns, as well as, the price-earnings ratio, VIX and the stock/bond return correlation. Results reveal that expected stock returns and the stock/bond return correlation exhibit predictive power for output and consumption growth and inflation at monthly and quarterly frequencies. The VIX has predictive power at the monthly frequency for consumption growth and inflation, while the price-earnings ratio predicts the shape of the future term structure. Results reveal that higher current expected returns are consistent with to higher future output and consumption growth, while greater risk results in lower future economic activity. The results are robust to considerations of structural breaks and alternative variables. Further, expected returns provides a noticeably more accurate recession prediction than realised returns. Thus, while stock returns are a weak predictor, expected returns and alternative proxies for stock market risk do reveal predictive power. Such information provides a leading role indicator for the macroeconomy and reveals links between financial markets and the economy.
Author : Georgios P. Kouretas
Publisher : Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN 13 : 178350756X
Total Pages : 285 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (835 download)
Download or read book Macroeconomic Analysis and International Finance written by Georgios P. Kouretas and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2014-02-20 with total page 285 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Banking sector transformation, economic growth and inequality and exchange rate arrangements are critical issues whose importance has been highlighted during the recent financial crisis. This volume contains new research on the relationships between economic growth, inequality and the financial sector.
Author : Rajendra Akerkar
Publisher : Jones & Bartlett Publishers
ISBN 13 : 1449662706
Total Pages : 375 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (496 download)
Download or read book Knowledge-Based Systems written by Rajendra Akerkar and published by Jones & Bartlett Publishers. This book was released on 2009-08-25 with total page 375 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A knowledge-based system (KBS) is a system that uses artificial intelligence techniques in problem-solving processes to support human decision-making, learning, and action. Ideal for advanced-undergraduate and graduate students, as well as business professionals, this text is designed to help users develop an appreciation of KBS and their architecture and understand a broad variety of knowledge-based techniques for decision support and planning. It assumes basic computer science skills and a math background that includes set theory, relations, elementary probability, and introductory concepts of artificial intelligence. Each of the 12 chapters is designed to be modular, providing instructors with the flexibility to model the book to their own course needs. Exercises are incorporated throughout the text to highlight certain aspects of the material presented and to simulate thought and discussion. A comprehensive text and resource, Knowledge-Based Systems provides access to the most current information in KBS and new artificial intelligences, as well as neural networks, fuzzy logic, genetic algorithms, and soft systems.
Author : Fischer S. Black
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262514095
Total Pages : 361 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (625 download)
Download or read book Exploring General Equilibrium written by Fischer S. Black and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2010-05-21 with total page 361 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An incisive, unconventional assessment of general equilibrium theory; with a previously unpublished paper. Fischer Black is known for his brilliance as well as his sometimes controversial opinions. Highly respected for his scholarly writings in finance, he now moves into different territory with this incisive, unconventional assessment of general equilibrium theory and what that theory reveals about business cycles, growth, and labor economics. The general equilibrium approach, Black asserts, can be used to explain most of the economy's behavior. It can explain business cycles and growth without using sticky prices, irrationality, economies of scale, or imperfect competition. It can explain the volatility of consumption, output, sales, investment, and inventories with axiomatic utility and constant-returns-to-scale production. It can explain temporary layoffs, job changes with and without intervening unemployment, and the behavior of vacancies. It can explain lower wages in part-time jobs, wages that increase rapidly with time on the job, and the forces that cause migration from poor to rich countries. Although the general equilibrium approach can't be tested in conventional ways, it can be used to generate examples that explain stylized facts—generalized observations from the real world—that have preoccupied macroeconomists for the last decade. Black contrasts his interpretation of these facts with conventional interpretations. Finally, he reviews a substantial body of literature on these topics.
Author : Dongbin Lee
Publisher : BoD – Books on Demand
ISBN 13 : 9535127144
Total Pages : 366 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (351 download)
Download or read book Nonlinear Systems written by Dongbin Lee and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2016-10-19 with total page 366 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book consists mainly of two parts: Chapter 1 - Chapter 7 and Chapter 8 - Chapter 14. Chapter 1 and Chapter 2 treat design techniques based on linearization of nonlinear systems. An analysis of nonlinear system over quantum mechanics is discussed in Chapter 3. Chapter 4 to Chapter 7 are estimation methods using Kalman filtering while solving nonlinear control systems using iterative approach. Optimal approaches are discussed in Chapter 8 with retarded control of nonlinear system in singular situation, and Chapter 9 extends optimal theory to H-infinity control for a nonlinear control system.Chapters 10 and 11 present the control of nonlinear dynamic systems, twin-rotor helicopter and 3D crane system, which are both underactuated, cascaded dynamic systems. Chapter 12 applies controls to antisynchronization/synchronization in the chaotic models based on Lyapunov exponent theorem, and Chapter 13 discusses developed stability analytic approaches in terms of Lyapunov stability. The analysis of economic activities, especially the relationship between stock return and economic growth, is presented in Chapter 14.
Author : Wesley R. Gray
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 111907150X
Total Pages : 230 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (19 download)
Download or read book DIY Financial Advisor written by Wesley R. Gray and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-08-31 with total page 230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: DIY Financial Advisor: A Simple Solution to Build and Protect Your Wealth DIY Financial Advisor is a synopsis of our research findings developed while serving as a consultant and asset manager for family offices. By way of background, a family office is a company, or group of people, who manage the wealth a family has gained over generations. The term 'family office' has an element of cachet, and even mystique, because it is usually associated with the mega-wealthy. However, practically speaking, virtually any family that manages its investments—independent of the size of the investment pool—could be considered a family office. The difference is mainly semantic. DIY Financial Advisor outlines a step-by-step process through which investors can take control of their hard-earned wealth and manage their own family office. Our research indicates that what matters in investing are minimizing psychology traps and managing fees and taxes. These simple concepts apply to all families, not just the ultra-wealthy. But can—or should—we be managing our own wealth? Our natural inclination is to succumb to the challenge of portfolio management and let an 'expert' deal with the problem. For a variety of reasons we discuss in this book, we should resist the gut reaction to hire experts. We suggest that investors maintain direct control, or at least a thorough understanding, of how their hard-earned wealth is managed. Our book is meant to be an educational journey that slowly builds confidence in one's own ability to manage a portfolio. We end our book with a potential solution that could be applicable to a wide-variety of investors, from the ultra-high net worth to middle class individuals, all of whom are focused on similar goals of preserving and growing their capital over time. DIY Financial Advisor is a unique resource. This book is the only comprehensive guide to implementing simple quantitative models that can beat the experts. And it comes at the perfect time, as the investment industry is undergoing a significant shift due in part to the use of automated investment strategies that do not require a financial advisor's involvement. DIY Financial Advisor is an essential text that guides you in making your money work for you—not for someone else!
Author : John H. Cochrane
Publisher : Now Publishers Inc
ISBN 13 : 1933019158
Total Pages : 117 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (33 download)
Download or read book Financial Markets and the Real Economy written by John H. Cochrane and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2005 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.
Author : Paul De Grauwe
Publisher : CEPS
ISBN 13 : 929079819X
Total Pages : 22 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (97 download)
Download or read book Stock Prices and Monetary Policy written by Paul De Grauwe and published by CEPS. This book was released on 2008 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The question of whether central banks should target stock prices so as to prevent bubbles and crashes from occurring has been hotly debated. This paper analyses this question using a behavioural macroeconomic model. This model generates bubbles and crashes. It analyses how 'leaning against the wind' strategies, which aim to reduce the volatility of stock prices, can help in reducing volatility of output and inflation. We find that such policies can be effective in reducing macroeconomic volatility, thereby improving the trade-off between output and inflation variability. The strength of this result, however, depends on the degree of credibility of the inflation-targeting regime. In the absence of such credibility, policies aiming at stabilising stock prices do not stabilise output and inflation.
Author : Bhanupong Nidhiprabha
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1317238133
Total Pages : 262 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (172 download)
Download or read book Macroeconomic Policy for Emerging Markets written by Bhanupong Nidhiprabha and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-09-21 with total page 262 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Macroeconomic policies matter for sustainable long-term growth. With global fluctuations, deviation from a stable growth path can be minimized by countercyclical macro policies, if properly implemented. This book examines Thailand’s 55 years of experience in macroeconomic management and provides valuable lessons for other emerging economies at various stages of development on what could have been done to avoid economic instability. It also examines how short-term complications can develop into perennial problems obstructing the process of economic development. The book provides an alternative approach to the study of economic growth through the inclusion of both economic history and institutional context, appealing to academics and economists who focus on economic growth, economic development, international macroeconomics, public policy study, business cycles, and the open-market economy.
Author : François M. Longin
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 44 pages
Book Rating : 4.X/5 (6 download)
Download or read book Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets written by François M. Longin and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Raul Rojas
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642610684
Total Pages : 511 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (426 download)
Download or read book Neural Networks written by Raul Rojas and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-29 with total page 511 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Neural networks are a computing paradigm that is finding increasing attention among computer scientists. In this book, theoretical laws and models previously scattered in the literature are brought together into a general theory of artificial neural nets. Always with a view to biology and starting with the simplest nets, it is shown how the properties of models change when more general computing elements and net topologies are introduced. Each chapter contains examples, numerous illustrations, and a bibliography. The book is aimed at readers who seek an overview of the field or who wish to deepen their knowledge. It is suitable as a basis for university courses in neurocomputing.
Author : Vladimir Vapnik
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1475732643
Total Pages : 324 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (757 download)
Download or read book The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory written by Vladimir Vapnik and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-29 with total page 324 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The aim of this book is to discuss the fundamental ideas which lie behind the statistical theory of learning and generalization. It considers learning as a general problem of function estimation based on empirical data. Omitting proofs and technical details, the author concentrates on discussing the main results of learning theory and their connections to fundamental problems in statistics. This second edition contains three new chapters devoted to further development of the learning theory and SVM techniques. Written in a readable and concise style, the book is intended for statisticians, mathematicians, physicists, and computer scientists.
Author : Wayne Ferson
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262039370
Total Pages : 497 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (62 download)
Download or read book Empirical Asset Pricing written by Wayne Ferson and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2019-03-12 with total page 497 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to the theory and methods of empirical asset pricing, integrating classical foundations with recent developments. This book offers a comprehensive advanced introduction to asset pricing, the study of models for the prices and returns of various securities. The focus is empirical, emphasizing how the models relate to the data. The book offers a uniquely integrated treatment, combining classical foundations with more recent developments in the literature and relating some of the material to applications in investment management. It covers the theory of empirical asset pricing, the main empirical methods, and a range of applied topics. The book introduces the theory of empirical asset pricing through three main paradigms: mean variance analysis, stochastic discount factors, and beta pricing models. It describes empirical methods, beginning with the generalized method of moments (GMM) and viewing other methods as special cases of GMM; offers a comprehensive review of fund performance evaluation; and presents selected applied topics, including a substantial chapter on predictability in asset markets that covers predicting the level of returns, volatility and higher moments, and predicting cross-sectional differences in returns. Other chapters cover production-based asset pricing, long-run risk models, the Campbell-Shiller approximation, the debate on covariance versus characteristics, and the relation of volatility to the cross-section of stock returns. An extensive reference section captures the current state of the field. The book is intended for use by graduate students in finance and economics; it can also serve as a reference for professionals.
Author : Jacques Lussier
Publisher : CFA Institute Research Foundation
ISBN 13 : 1944960090
Total Pages : 40 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (449 download)
Download or read book Portfolio Structuring and the Value of Forecasting written by Jacques Lussier and published by CFA Institute Research Foundation. This book was released on 2016-10-10 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Andrew Smithers
Publisher : McGraw Hill Professional
ISBN 13 : 9780071387835
Total Pages : 374 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (878 download)
Download or read book Valuing Wall Street written by Andrew Smithers and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2002 with total page 374 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Valuing Wall Street is a book on investments.
Author : John Fox
Publisher : SAGE Publications
ISBN 13 : 141297514X
Total Pages : 473 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (129 download)
Download or read book An R Companion to Applied Regression written by John Fox and published by SAGE Publications. This book was released on 2011 with total page 473 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book aims to provide a broad introduction to the R statistical environment in the context of applied regression analysis, which is typically studied by social scientists and others in a second course in applied statistics.
