Distributional Aspects of Energy and Climate Policies

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Author :
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1783470275
Total Pages : 397 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (834 download)

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Book Synopsis Distributional Aspects of Energy and Climate Policies by : Mark A. Cohen

Download or read book Distributional Aspects of Energy and Climate Policies written by Mark A. Cohen and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2013-05-31 with total page 397 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Governments around the globe have begun to implement various actions to limit carbon emissions and so, combat climate change. This book brings together some of the leading scholars in environmental and climate economics to examine the distributional consequences of policies that are designed to reduce these carbon emissions. Whether through a carbon tax, cap-and-trade system or other mechanisms, most proposals to reduce carbon emissions include some kind of carbon pricing system Ð shifting the costs of emissions onto polluters and providing an incentive to find the least costly methods of abatement. This standard efficiency justification for pricing carbon also has important distributional consequences Ð a problem that is often ignored by economists while being a major focus of attention in the political arena. Leading scholars in environmental and climate economics take up these issues to examine such questions as: Will the costs fall on current or future generations? Will they fall on the rich, poor, middle class, or on everyone proportionally? Which countries will benefit, and which will suffer? Students and scholars interested in climate change, along with policy makers, will find this lively volume an invaluable addition to the quest for information on this globally important issue.

The Distributional Effects of Climate Policies

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Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9789078910473
Total Pages : 112 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (14 download)

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Book Synopsis The Distributional Effects of Climate Policies by : ZACHMANN. GUSTAV GEORG (FREDRIKSSON. GREGORY, CLAEYS.)

Download or read book The Distributional Effects of Climate Policies written by ZACHMANN. GUSTAV GEORG (FREDRIKSSON. GREGORY, CLAEYS.) and published by . This book was released on 2018-12-20 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Policymakers will not accept forceful decarbonisation policies if they lead to visibly increasing inequality within their societies. The distributive effects of climate policies need to be addressed. This report provides a selective review of recent academic literature and experience on the distributional effects of climate policies.

Distributional Effects of Environmental and Energy Policy

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Author :
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1351943464
Total Pages : 518 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (519 download)

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Book Synopsis Distributional Effects of Environmental and Energy Policy by : Don Fullerton

Download or read book Distributional Effects of Environmental and Energy Policy written by Don Fullerton and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-05-15 with total page 518 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many effects of environmental and energy policy are likely to disproportionately burden those with low income. First, it raises the price of fossil-fuel-intensive products that constitute a high fraction of low-income budgets (like gasoline, heating fuel and electricity). Second, the handout of pollution permits to firms provides value to those who own them. Third, low-income individuals may place more value on food and shelter than on improvements in environmental quality, so high-income individuals may get the most benefit of pollution abatement. Fourth, air quality improvements may raise the value of houses owned by landlords, rather than helping renters. These effects might all hurt the poor more than the rich. This book brings together the seminal economics literature that studies whether these fears are valid and whether anything can be done about them.

Distributional Impacts of Energy Policies in India

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Author :
Publisher : Stanford University
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 152 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Distributional Impacts of Energy Policies in India by : Narasimha Desirazu Rao

Download or read book Distributional Impacts of Energy Policies in India written by Narasimha Desirazu Rao and published by Stanford University. This book was released on 2011 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While there is much agreement in the climate policy literature that climate change mitigation should not interfere with humans' ability to enjoy a minimal standard of living, there is little scholarship on how to carve out such an "exemption" for poor subpopulations within large developing economies. Further, there is little analysis in developing countries of how the burdens of specific mitigation policies would be distributed. This dissertation begins to fill these gaps. This work consists of three studies, the first two of which are positive studies of the income distributional impacts of two energy policies that have climate mitigation benefits in Maharashtra, India: electricity pricing to recover low-carbon electric supply; and removal of the kerosene subsidy. In the first study I use an economic simulation model of the electricity sector and household welfare to assess the impacts of economy-wide electricity price increases under different political and institutional constraints. The analysis reveals that regulators can insulate low-income households from welfare losses without trading off aggregate welfare losses as long as they can raise prices to industry and high-income households. Mitigation may also have a co-benefit of reducing supply interruptions to the poor. In the second study, the kerosene subsidy is found to be progressive and material in urban areas, but regressive and less material in rural areas. One reason is that households' allocated quotas far exceed kerosene demand in rural areas, but fall short of many urban households' needs. A better targeted subsidy in urban areas alone would avoid high costs of the current subsidy, yet avoid the impoverishment of urban users from their complete removal. These results emphasize that protecting the interests of the poor in international climate change mitigation agreements requires some accountability from the institutions that implement mitigation policies within states. The third study questions the adequacy of burden-sharing proposals for climate mitigation that advocate an exemption for the poor without accounting for states' agency over the costs and outcomes of such an exemption. Participating states face moral hazards over the choice of future baselines of the poor's emissions. I show - using India for illustration - that the financial stakes for parties in how future growth is distributed in India can be up to tens of billions of dollars. Getting agreement on the terms of exemption may be easier if benefiting states adopt comparative benchmarks of accountability for the poor's emissions, but which do not infringe on particular policy choices. Furthermore, participating states should have shared duties to ensure that the poor receive the benefits of an awarded exemption.

The Design and Implementation of US Climate Policy

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Author :
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226269140
Total Pages : 345 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (262 download)

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Book Synopsis The Design and Implementation of US Climate Policy by : Don Fullerton

Download or read book The Design and Implementation of US Climate Policy written by Don Fullerton and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2012-09-27 with total page 345 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This book contains the proceedings of an NBER conference held in Washington, DC, on May 13-14, 2010"--Page xi.

The Poverty and Distributional Impacts of Carbon Pricing: Channels and Policy Implications

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 151357339X
Total Pages : 32 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis The Poverty and Distributional Impacts of Carbon Pricing: Channels and Policy Implications by : Baoping Shang

Download or read book The Poverty and Distributional Impacts of Carbon Pricing: Channels and Policy Implications written by Baoping Shang and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-06-25 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Addressing the poverty and distributional impacts of carbon pricing reforms is critical for the success of ambitious actions in the fight against climate change. This paper uses a simple framework to systematically review the channels through which carbon pricing can potentially affect poverty and inequality. It finds that the channels differ in important ways along several dimensions. The paper also identifies several key gaps in the current literature and discusses some considerations on how policy designs could take into account the attributes of the channels in mitigating the impacts of carbon pricing reforms on households.

Distributional Impacts of environmental and energy taxes

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Author :
Publisher : Nordic Council of Ministers
ISBN 13 : 9289367199
Total Pages : 54 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (893 download)

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Book Synopsis Distributional Impacts of environmental and energy taxes by : Gravers Skygebjerg, Jan

Download or read book Distributional Impacts of environmental and energy taxes written by Gravers Skygebjerg, Jan and published by Nordic Council of Ministers. This book was released on 2020-10-29 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Available online: http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:norden:org:diva-6214 To support the green transition, the use of green taxation might increase in the coming years. Public support of such policy interventions will among other things depend on the distributional impacts of the regulation. Increased green taxation can result in unwanted distributional impacts in the economy at large because environmental taxation tends to make up a larger share of the disposable income of low-income families. This study investigates current guides and practices in the Nordic countries on how the distributional effects from environmental taxation are analyzed and incorporated into the policy design. This is combined with research findings on the distributional effects of environmental taxation and possible mitigating actions. The study indicates that the Nordic countries could benefit from better integration of mitigating strategies between agencies.

Climate Impacts on Energy Systems

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Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 0821386980
Total Pages : 224 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (213 download)

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Book Synopsis Climate Impacts on Energy Systems by : Jane O. Ebinger

Download or read book Climate Impacts on Energy Systems written by Jane O. Ebinger and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2011 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "While the energy sector is a primary target of efforts to arrest and reverse the growth of greenhouse gas emissions and lower the carbon footprint of development, it is also expected to be increasingly affected by unavoidable climate consequences from the damage already induced in the biosphere. Energy services and resources, as well as seasonal demand, will be increasingly affected by changing trends, increasing variability, greater extremes and large inter-annual variations in climate parameters in some regions. All evidence suggests that adaptation is not an optional add-on but an essential reckoning on par with other business risks. Existing energy infrastructure, new infrastructure and future planning need to consider emerging climate conditions and impacts on design, construction, operation, and maintenance. Integrated risk-based planning processes will be critical to address the climate change impacts and harmonize actions within and across sectors. Also, awareness, knowledge, and capacity impede mainstreaming of climate adaptation into the energy sector. However, the formal knowledge base is still nascent?information needs are complex and to a certain extent regionally and sector specific. This report provides an up-to-date compendium of what is known about weather variability and projected climate trends and their impacts on energy service provision and demand. It discusses emerging practices and tools for managing these impacts and integrating climate considerations into planning processes and operational practices in an environment of uncertainty. It focuses on energy sector adaptation, rather than mitigation which is not discussed in this report. This report draws largely on available scientific and peer-reviewed literature in the public domain and takes the perspective of the developing world to the extent possible."

Policy measures to compensate for increasing costs of energy

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Publisher : Nordic Council of Ministers
ISBN 13 : 9289378174
Total Pages : 70 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (893 download)

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Book Synopsis Policy measures to compensate for increasing costs of energy by : Erik Gråd

Download or read book Policy measures to compensate for increasing costs of energy written by Erik Gråd and published by Nordic Council of Ministers. This book was released on with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Available online: https://pub.norden.org/temanord2024-517/ The Nordic region's climate change goals are challenged by significant energy price hikes from 2021 to 2023. Nordic governments implemented various price compensation measures, but their impact on social-, climate-, and environmental goals remains uncertain. The impact evaluation presented in this report highlights that the Nordic measures were characterised by diverse designs, rapid yet problematic implementation, and limited redistribution to low-income households. Several measures discouraged effective resource allocation and emission reduction. To reduce the risk of conflict between compensation measures and climate change policy it is important that measures are understood as temporary. Measures that utilise flat rate or regressive patterns for transfer of funds, and that decouple funds from current consumption, should have been more effective that most of the measures utilised.

Distributional Impacts of Energy Policies in India

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Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (747 download)

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Book Synopsis Distributional Impacts of Energy Policies in India by : Narasimha Desirazu Rao

Download or read book Distributional Impacts of Energy Policies in India written by Narasimha Desirazu Rao and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While there is much agreement in the climate policy literature that climate change mitigation should not interfere with humans' ability to enjoy a minimal standard of living, there is little scholarship on how to carve out such an "exemption" for poor subpopulations within large developing economies. Further, there is little analysis in developing countries of how the burdens of specific mitigation policies would be distributed. This dissertation begins to fill these gaps. This work consists of three studies, the first two of which are positive studies of the income distributional impacts of two energy policies that have climate mitigation benefits in Maharashtra, India: electricity pricing to recover low-carbon electric supply; and removal of the kerosene subsidy. In the first study I use an economic simulation model of the electricity sector and household welfare to assess the impacts of economy-wide electricity price increases under different political and institutional constraints. The analysis reveals that regulators can insulate low-income households from welfare losses without trading off aggregate welfare losses as long as they can raise prices to industry and high-income households. Mitigation may also have a co-benefit of reducing supply interruptions to the poor. In the second study, the kerosene subsidy is found to be progressive and material in urban areas, but regressive and less material in rural areas. One reason is that households' allocated quotas far exceed kerosene demand in rural areas, but fall short of many urban households' needs. A better targeted subsidy in urban areas alone would avoid high costs of the current subsidy, yet avoid the impoverishment of urban users from their complete removal. These results emphasize that protecting the interests of the poor in international climate change mitigation agreements requires some accountability from the institutions that implement mitigation policies within states. The third study questions the adequacy of burden-sharing proposals for climate mitigation that advocate an exemption for the poor without accounting for states' agency over the costs and outcomes of such an exemption. Participating states face moral hazards over the choice of future baselines of the poor's emissions. I show - using India for illustration - that the financial stakes for parties in how future growth is distributed in India can be up to tens of billions of dollars. Getting agreement on the terms of exemption may be easier if benefiting states adopt comparative benchmarks of accountability for the poor's emissions, but which do not infringe on particular policy choices. Furthermore, participating states should have shared duties to ensure that the poor receive the benefits of an awarded exemption.

Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy

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Author :
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 022682828X
Total Pages : 281 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (268 download)

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Book Synopsis Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy by : Matthew J. Kotchen

Download or read book Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy written by Matthew J. Kotchen and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2023-02-20 with total page 281 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rigorous, careful, and nonpartisan research with a high policy impact on environmental and energy economics. Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy focuses on the effective and efficient management of environmental and energy challenges. Research papers offer new evidence on the intended and unintended consequences, the market and nonmarket effects, and the incentive and distributional impacts of policy initiatives and market developments. This volume presents six new papers on environmental and energy economics and policy. Gilbert Metcalf examines the distributional impacts of substituting a vehicle miles-traveled tax for the existing federal excise tax in the United States. David Weisbach, Samuel Kortum, Michael Wang, and Yujia Yao consider solutions to the leakage problem of climate policy with differential tax policies on the supply and demand for fossil fuels and on domestic production and consumption. Danae Hernandez-Cortes, Kyle Meng, and Paige Weber quantify and decompose recent trends in air pollution disparities in the US electricity sector. Severin Borenstein and Ryan Kellogg provide a comparative analysis of different incentive-based mechanisms to reduce emissions in the electricity sector on a path to zero emissions. Sarah Anderson, Andrew Plantinga, and Matthew Wibbenmeyer document distributional differences in the allocation of US wildfire prevention projects. Finally, Mark Curtis and Ioana Marinescu provide new evidence on the quality and quantity of emerging “green” jobs in the United States.

Distributional Effects of Environmental and Energy Policy

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Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 19 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis Distributional Effects of Environmental and Energy Policy by : Don Fullerton

Download or read book Distributional Effects of Environmental and Energy Policy written by Don Fullerton and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This chapter reviews literature on the distributional effects of environmental and energy policy. In particular, many effects of such policy are likely regressive. First, it raises the price of fossil-fuel-intensive products, expenditures on which are a high fraction of low-income budgets. Second, if abatement technologies are capital-intensive, then any mandate to abate pollution may induce firms to use more capital. If demand for capital is raised relative to labor, then a lower relative wage may also hurt low-income households. Third, pollution permits handed out to firms bestow scarcity rents on well-off individuals who own those firms. Fourth, low-income individuals may place more value on food and shelter than on incremental improvements in environmental quality. If high-income individuals get the most benefit of pollution abatement, then this effect is regressive as well. Fifth, low-income renters miss out on house price capitalization of air quality benefits. Well-off landlords may reap those gains. Sixth, transition effects could well hurt the unemployed who are already at some disadvantage. These six effects might all hurt the poor more than the rich. This paper discusses whether these fears are valid, and whether anything can be done about them.

Advancing the Science of Climate Change

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Author :
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309145880
Total Pages : 526 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Advancing the Science of Climate Change by : National Research Council

Download or read book Advancing the Science of Climate Change written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2011-01-10 with total page 526 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for-and in many cases is already affecting-a broad range of human and natural systems. The compelling case for these conclusions is provided in Advancing the Science of Climate Change, part of a congressionally requested suite of studies known as America's Climate Choices. While noting that there is always more to learn and that the scientific process is never closed, the book shows that hypotheses about climate change are supported by multiple lines of evidence and have stood firm in the face of serious debate and careful evaluation of alternative explanations. As decision makers respond to these risks, the nation's scientific enterprise can contribute through research that improves understanding of the causes and consequences of climate change and also is useful to decision makers at the local, regional, national, and international levels. The book identifies decisions being made in 12 sectors, ranging from agriculture to transportation, to identify decisions being made in response to climate change. Advancing the Science of Climate Change calls for a single federal entity or program to coordinate a national, multidisciplinary research effort aimed at improving both understanding and responses to climate change. Seven cross-cutting research themes are identified to support this scientific enterprise. In addition, leaders of federal climate research should redouble efforts to deploy a comprehensive climate observing system, improve climate models and other analytical tools, invest in human capital, and improve linkages between research and decisions by forming partnerships with action-oriented programs.

Within Reach

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Author :
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 1464819548
Total Pages : 315 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (648 download)

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Book Synopsis Within Reach by : Stephane Hallegatte

Download or read book Within Reach written by Stephane Hallegatte and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2023-01-16 with total page 315 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change presents a unique challenge in that policy makers need to balance the speed and scale required to achieve global objectives within the time required to ensure political acceptability and social sustainability. Within Reach: Navigating the Political Economy of Decarbonization identifies the key political economy barriers and explores the options to address them through four key recommendations: * Climate governance: strategically adapt the institutional architecture and embed climate objectives into a positive development narrative. Strategic governance institutions that reflect societal goals--such as climate change framework laws, longterm strategies, or just transition frameworks--can alter the political economy, set clear objectives, facilitate coordination across actors, and help monitor progress and hold decision-makers accountable. * Policy sequencing: balance short-term feasibility and long-term ambition. Because the political economy and institutional context are dynamic and can be influenced by policies, policy makers can select their priorities, not only to make policy implementation feasible but also to actively build capacity and change the political economy and institutional context, building momentum toward the long-term objective and transformation. * Policy design: focus on people and manage the distributional effects of climate policies. Climate policies have heterogenous impacts across households, sectors, and locations. Active labor policies, reskilling programs, compensations and transfers, place-based policies, and green industrial policies can be used to protect vulnerable populations, facilitate a just transition, and make policies more acceptable and sustainable. * Policy process: use public engagement and communication to improve design and legitimacy. Civic engagement can improve a policy's design, enhance legitimacy, foster compromise, and help identify unintended consequences early. Effective communication can make reforms more accessible to the public and increase support. This book shows how appropriate governance frameworks, strong institutional capacity, well-designed policies with adequate compensation measures, and early engagement with all stakeholders are essential strategic elements to building consensus and momentum for transformative policies. By deploying these tools, policy makers can navigate the urgency in climate action and its political economy challenges to achieve their long-term climate goals and secure a livable planet.

Confronting the Climate Challenge

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Author :
Publisher : Columbia University Press
ISBN 13 : 0231545932
Total Pages : 354 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (315 download)

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Book Synopsis Confronting the Climate Challenge by : Lawrence Goulder

Download or read book Confronting the Climate Challenge written by Lawrence Goulder and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2017-12-26 with total page 354 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Without significant reductions of greenhouse gas emissions, climate change will cause substantial damage to the environment and the economy. The scope of the threat demands a close look at the policies capable of reducing the harm. Confronting the Climate Challenge presents a unique framework for evaluating the impacts of a range of U.S. climate-policy options, both for the economy overall and for particular household groups, industries, and regions. Lawrence Goulder and Marc Hafstead focus on four alternative approaches for reducing carbon dioxide emissions: a revenue-neutral carbon tax, a cap-and-trade program, a clean energy standard, and an increase in the federal gasoline tax. They demonstrate that these policies—if designed correctly—not only can achieve emissions reductions at low cost but also can avoid placing undesirable burdens on low-income household groups or especially vulnerable industries. Goulder and Hafstead apply a multiperiod, economy-wide general equilibrium model that is distinct in its attention to investment dynamics and to interactions between climate policy and the tax system. Exploiting the unique features of the model, they contrast the shorter- and longer-term policy impacts and focus on alternative ways of feeding back—or “recycling”—policy-generated revenues to the private sector. Their work shows how careful policy design, including the judicious use of policy-generated revenues, can achieve desired reductions in carbon dioxide emissions at low cost, avoid uneven impacts across household income groups, and prevent losses of profit in the most vulnerable U.S. industries. The urgency of the climate problem demands comprehensive action, and Confronting the Climate Challenge offers important insights that can help elevate policy discussions and spur needed efforts on the climate front.

Distributional and Climate Implications of Policy Responses to the Energy Crisis

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Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)

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Book Synopsis Distributional and Climate Implications of Policy Responses to the Energy Crisis by : Thiemo Fetzer

Download or read book Distributional and Climate Implications of Policy Responses to the Energy Crisis written by Thiemo Fetzer and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Which households are most affected by energy price shocks and what can we learn about the incidence of carbon taxes? How large are the energy, financial, and environmental benefits of improved energy efficiency in the residential building stock? How do energy price setting policies affect incentives to invest in energy efficiency? We use granular property-level data representing more than 50% of the English and Welsh building stock to answer these questions and estimate the impact of recent energy price shocks on energy bills under different energy efficiency investments scenarios. We find that the energy price shock hits better-off regions more than poorer ones, in absolute terms. On aggregate, 30% of energy consumption, totalling GBP 10-20 billion, could be saved if buildings were upgraded to higher energy efficiency standards. Energy savings appear largely concentrated in the wealthiest parts of England and Wales. However, current policies, such as the UK’s energy price cap, weaken incentives for households to invest in energy efficiency upgrades and benefit wealthier households the most. Alternative, more targeted policies are cheaper, easily implementable, and could better align incentives.

Shock Waves

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Author :
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 1464806748
Total Pages : 227 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (648 download)

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Book Synopsis Shock Waves by : Stephane Hallegatte

Download or read book Shock Waves written by Stephane Hallegatte and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2015-11-23 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ending poverty and stabilizing climate change will be two unprecedented global achievements and two major steps toward sustainable development. But the two objectives cannot be considered in isolation: they need to be jointly tackled through an integrated strategy. This report brings together those two objectives and explores how they can more easily be achieved if considered together. It examines the potential impact of climate change and climate policies on poverty reduction. It also provides guidance on how to create a “win-win†? situation so that climate change policies contribute to poverty reduction and poverty-reduction policies contribute to climate change mitigation and resilience building. The key finding of the report is that climate change represents a significant obstacle to the sustained eradication of poverty, but future impacts on poverty are determined by policy choices: rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development can prevent most short-term impacts whereas immediate pro-poor, emissions-reduction policies can drastically limit long-term ones.