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Determinants Of Volatile Commodity Prices
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Book Synopsis Determinants of Volatile Commodity Prices by : Vijay Kumar Varadi
Download or read book Determinants of Volatile Commodity Prices written by Vijay Kumar Varadi and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent hikes and fluctuations in global commodity prices in 2007-11 have raised many issues. The present analysis is an attempted advancement to identify appropriate associations to volatile commodity prices by advancing existing analysis of S&P GSCI commodity spot price index is used as a proxy for global commodity prices for the period June-1996 to June-2011 monthly time series. In this paper, we have made an attempt to identify more determine factors for recent hike and fluctuations in global commodity prices, including, monetary policies, macro economic factors, financialization in commodity markets and impact of various other commodity prices. Empirical evidence is that there is a negative relationship existing with monetary policy, mixed evidence with macro economic indicators and positive impact of financialization of commodity markets. And various commodities such as crude oil and non-energy commodities are having significant effect on volatile commodity prices.
Author :Isabelle Piot-Lepetit Publisher :Springer Science & Business Media ISBN 13 :1441976345 Total Pages :238 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (419 download)
Book Synopsis Methods to Analyse Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility by : Isabelle Piot-Lepetit
Download or read book Methods to Analyse Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility written by Isabelle Piot-Lepetit and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-06-10 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines the issue of price volatility in agricultural commodities markets and how this phenomenon has evolved in recent years. The factors underlying the price spike of 2007-08 appear to be global and macroeconomic in nature, including the rapid growth in demand by developing countries, the international financial crisis, and exchange rate movements. Some of these factors are new, appearing as influences on price volatility only in the last decade. Although volatility has always been a feature of agricultural commodity markets, the evidence suggests that volatility has increased in certain commodity markets. A growing problem is that agricultural price shocks and volatility disrupt agricultural markets, economic incentives and incomes. With increased globalization and integration of financial and energy markets with agricultural commodity markets, the relationships between markets are expanding and becoming more complex. When a crisis such as a regional drought, food safety scare or a financial crisis hits a particular market, policy-makers often do not know the extent to which it will impact on other markets and affect producer, consumer and trader decisions. Including contributions from experts at the World Bank, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the USDA, and the European Commission, the research developed throughout the chapters of this book is based on current methodologies that can be used to analyze price volatility and provide directions for understanding this volatility and the development of new agricultural policies. The book highlights the challenges facing policy makers in dealing with the changing nature of agricultural commodities markets, and offers recommendations for anticipating price movements and managing their consequences. It will be a practical guide for both present and future policy-makers in deciding on potential price-stabilizing interventions, and will also serve as a useful resource for researchers and students in agricultural economics.
Book Synopsis What Explains the Rise in Food Price Volatility? by : Mr.Shaun K. Roache
Download or read book What Explains the Rise in Food Price Volatility? written by Mr.Shaun K. Roache and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-05-01 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The macroeconomic effects of large food price swings can be broad and far-reaching, including the balance of payments of importers and exporters, budgets, inflation, and poverty. For market participants and policymakers, managing low frequency volatility—i.e., the component of volatility that persists for longer than one harvest year—may be more challenging as uncertainty regarding its persistence is likely to be higher. This paper measures the low frequency volatility of food commodity spot prices using the spline- GARCH approach. It finds that low frequency volatility is positively correlated across different commodities, suggesting an important role for common factors. It also identifies a number of determinants of low frequency volatility, two of which—the variation in U.S. inflation and the U.S. dollar exchange rate—explain a relatively large part of the rise in volatility since the mid-1990s.
Book Synopsis Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy by : Matthias Kalkuhl
Download or read book Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy written by Matthias Kalkuhl and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-12 with total page 620 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides fresh insights into concepts, methods and new research findings on the causes of excessive food price volatility. It also discusses the implications for food security and policy responses to mitigate excessive volatility. The approaches applied by the contributors range from on-the-ground surveys, to panel econometrics and innovative high-frequency time series analysis as well as computational economics methods. It offers policy analysts and decision-makers guidance on dealing with extreme volatility.
Book Synopsis Commodity Prices and Exchange Rate Volatility by : Mr.Rabah Arezki
Download or read book Commodity Prices and Exchange Rate Volatility written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-06-01 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the relationship between South African Rand and gold price volatility using monthly data for the period 1980-2010. Our main findings is that prior to capital account liberalization the causality runs from South African Rand to gold price volatility but the causality runs the other way around for the post-liberalization period. These findings suggest that gold price volatility plays a key role in explaining both the excessive exchange rate volatility and current disproportionate share of speculative (short-run) inflows that South Africa has been coping with since the opening up of its capital account.
Book Synopsis The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices by : Eduardo Borensztein
Download or read book The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices written by Eduardo Borensztein and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1994 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The “traditional structural approach” to the determination of real commodity prices has relied exclusively on demand factors as the fundamentals that explain the behavior of commodity prices. This framework, however, has been unable to explain the marked and sustained weakness in commodity prices during the 1980s and 1990s. This paper extends that framework in two important directions: First, it incorporates commodity supply in the analysis, capturing the impact on prices of the sharp increase in commodity exports of developing countries during the debt crisis of the 1980s. Second, we take a broader view of “world” demand that extends beyond the industrial countries and includes output developments in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union (FSU). The empirical results support these extensions, as both the fit of the model improves substantially and, more importantly, its ability to forecast increases markedly.
Book Synopsis Commodity Prices and Markets by : Takatoshi Ito
Download or read book Commodity Prices and Markets written by Takatoshi Ito and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2011-03 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.
Book Synopsis Volatility and Commodity Price Dynamics by : Robert S. Pindyck
Download or read book Volatility and Commodity Price Dynamics written by Robert S. Pindyck and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodity prices tend to be volatile, and volatility itself varies over time. changes in volatility can affect market variables by directly affecting the marginal value of storage, and by affecting a component of the total marginal cost of productions: the opportunity cost of exercising the option to produce the commodity now rather than waiting for more price information. I examine the role of volatility in short-run commodity market dynamics, as well as the determinants of volatility itself. Specifically, I develop a model describing the joint dynamics of inventories, spot and futures prices, and volatility, and estimate it using daily and weekly data for the petroleum complex: crude oil, heating oil, and gasoline.
Book Synopsis Commodity Price Dynamics by : Craig Pirrong
Download or read book Commodity Price Dynamics written by Craig Pirrong and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2011-10-31 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.
Book Synopsis Exploring Health and Environmental Costs of Food by : National Research Council
Download or read book Exploring Health and Environmental Costs of Food written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2012-12-28 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. food system provides many benefits, not the least of which is a safe, nutritious and consistent food supply. However, the same system also creates significant environmental, public health, and other costs that generally are not recognized and not accounted for in the retail price of food. These include greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, soil erosion, air pollution, and their environmental consequences, the transfer of antibiotic resistance from food animals to human, and other human health outcomes, including foodborne illnesses and chronic disease. Some external costs which are also known as externalities are accounted for in ways that do not involve increasing the price of food. But many are not. They are borne involuntarily by society at large. A better understanding of external costs would help decision makers at all stages of the life cycle to expand the benefits of the U.S. food system even further. The Institute of Medicine (IOM) and the National Research Council (NRC) with support from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) convened a public workshop on April 23-23, 2012, to explore the external costs of food, methodologies for quantifying those costs, and the limitations of the methodologies. The workshop was intended to be an information-gathering activity only. Given the complexity of the issues and the broad areas of expertise involved, workshop presentations and discussions represent only a small portion of the current knowledge and are by no means comprehensive. The focus was on the environmental and health impacts of food, using externalities as a basis for discussion and animal products as a case study. The intention was not to quantify costs or benefits, but rather to lay the groundwork for doing so. A major goal of the workshop was to identify information sources and methodologies required to recognize and estimate the costs and benefits of environmental and public health consequences associated with the U.S. food system. It was anticipated that the workshop would provide the basis for a follow-up consensus study of the subject and that a central task of the consensus study will be to develop a framework for a full-scale accounting of the environmental and public health effects for all food products of the U.S. food system. Exploring Health and Environmental Costs of Food: Workshop Summary provides the basis for a follow-up planning discussion involving members of the IOM Food and Nutrition Board and the NRC Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources and others to develop the scope and areas of expertise needed for a larger-scale, consensus study of the subject.
Book Synopsis Safeguarding Food Security in Volatile Global Markets by : Adam Prakash
Download or read book Safeguarding Food Security in Volatile Global Markets written by Adam Prakash and published by Bright Sparks. This book was released on 2011 with total page 620 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timely publication as world leaders deliberate the causes of the latest bouts of food price volatility and search for solutions that address the recent velocity of financial, economic, political, demographic, and climatic change. As a collection compiled from a diverse group of economists, analysts, traders, institutions and policy formulators - comprising multiple methodologies and viewpoints - the book exposes the impact of volatility on global food security, with particular focus on the world's most vulnerable.
Book Synopsis Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises by : Mr.Markus Eberhardt
Download or read book Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises written by Mr.Markus Eberhardt and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-06 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop an empirical model to predict banking crises in a sample of 60 low-income countries (LICs) over the 1981-2015 period. Given the recent emergence of financial sector stress associated with low commodity prices in several LICs, we assign price movements in primary commodities a key role in our model. Accounting for changes in commodity prices significantly increases the predictive power of the model. The commodity price effect is economically substantial and robust to the inclusion of a wide array of potential drivers of banking crises. We confirm that net capital inflows increase the likelihood of a crisis; however, in contrast to recent findings for advanced and emerging economies, credit growth and capital flow surges play no significant role in predicting banking crises in LICs.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1475507038 Total Pages :299 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (755 download)
Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, April 2012 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook, April 2012 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-04-17 with total page 299 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The April 2012 issue of the World Economic Outlook assesses the prospects for the global economy, which has gradually strengthened after a major setback during 2011. The threat of a sharp global slowdown eased with improved activity in the United States and better policies in the euro area. Weak recovery will likely resume in the major advanced economies, and activity will remain relatively solid in most emerging and developing economies. However, recent improvements are very fragile. Policymakers must calibrate policies to support growth in the near term and must implement fundamental changes to achieve healthy growth in the medium term. Chapter 3 examines how policies directed at real estate markets can accelerate the improvement of household balance sheets and thus support otherwise anemic consumption. Chapter 4 examines how swings in commodity prices affect commodity-exporting economies, many of which have experienced a decade of good growth. With commodity prices unlikely to continue growing at the recent elevated pace, however, these economies may have to adapt their fiscal and other policies to lower potential output growth in the future.
Book Synopsis Asset Prices and Monetary Policy by : John Y. Campbell
Download or read book Asset Prices and Monetary Policy written by John Y. Campbell and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-11-15 with total page 444 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic growth, low inflation, and financial stability are among the most important goals of policy makers, and central banks such as the Federal Reserve are key institutions for achieving these goals. In Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, leading scholars and practitioners probe the interaction of central banks, asset markets, and the general economy to forge a new understanding of the challenges facing policy makers as they manage an increasingly complex economic system. The contributors examine how central bankers determine their policy prescriptions with reference to the fluctuating housing market, the balance of debt and credit, changing beliefs of investors, the level of commodity prices, and other factors. At a time when the public has never been more involved in stocks, retirement funds, and real estate investment, this insightful book will be useful to all those concerned with the current state of the economy.
Book Synopsis Agricultural Marketing by : James Vercammen
Download or read book Agricultural Marketing written by James Vercammen and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2012-01-11 with total page 241 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The price of food has become very volatile in recent years for a variety of reasons, including a strengthened connection between the prices of agricultural commodities and other commodities such as oil and metals, more volatile production due to more frequent droughts and floods, and a rising demand for biofuels. Understanding the determinants of agricultural commodity prices and the connections between prices has become a high priority for academics and applied economists who are interested in agricultural marketing and trade, policy analysis and international rural development. This book builds on the various theories of commodity price relationships in competitive markets over space, time and form. It also builds on the various theories of commodity price relationships in markets that are non-competitive because processing firms exploit market power, private information distorts commodity bidding, and bargaining is required to establish prices when the marketing transaction involves a single seller and buyer. Each chapter features a spreadsheet model to analyze a particular real-world case study or plausible scenario, and issues considered include: the reasons for commodity price differences across regions the connection between the release of information and the rapid adjustment in a network of commodity prices the specific linkage between energy and food prices bidding strategies by large exporters who compete in import tenders The simulation results that are obtained from the spreadsheet models reveal many important features of commodity prices. The models are also well suited for additional "what if" analysis such as examining how the pattern of trade in agricultural commodities may change if shipping becomes more expensive because of substantial increase in the world price of oil. Model building and the analysis of the simulation results is a highly effective way to develop critical thinking skills and to view agricultural commodity prices in a rigorous and unique way. This is an ideal resource for economics students looking to gain develop skills in the areas of Agricultural Marketing, Commodity Price Analysis, Models of Commodity Markets, Quantitative Methods and Commodity Futures Markets.
Book Synopsis The Myth of Comoving Commodity Prices by : Mr.Paul Cashin
Download or read book The Myth of Comoving Commodity Prices written by Mr.Paul Cashin and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-12-01 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is a common perception that the prices of unrelated commodities move together. This paper re-examines this notion, using a measure of comovement of economic time series called concordance. Concordance measures the proportion of time that the prices of two commodities are concurrently in the same boom period or same slump period. Using data on the prices of several unrelated commodities, the paper finds no evidence of comovement in commodity prices. The results carry an important policy implication, as the study provides no support for earlier claims of irrational trading behavior by participants in world commodity markets.
Book Synopsis Currencies, Commodities and Consumption by : Kenneth W. Clements
Download or read book Currencies, Commodities and Consumption written by Kenneth W. Clements and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013-01-31 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discusses economic issues associated with exchange rates, commodity prices, the economic size of countries and alternatives to PPP exchange rates.
