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Crisis Deterrence In The Taiwan Strait
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Book Synopsis Deterrence Theory and Chinese Behavior by : Abram N. Shulsky
Download or read book Deterrence Theory and Chinese Behavior written by Abram N. Shulsky and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2000 with total page 85 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China's recent reforms have led to unprecedented economic growth; if this continues, China will be able to turn its great potential power into actual power. The result could be, in the very long term, the rise of China as a rival to the United States as the world's predominant power; in the nearer term, China could become a significant rival in the East Asian region. In this context, the issue for U.S. policy is how to handle a rising power, a problem that predominant powers have faced many times throughout history. It is the contention of this report that the future Sino-U.S. context will illustrate many of the problems of deterrence theory that have been discussed in recent decades; deterrence theory will be, in general, more difficult to apply than it was in the U.S.-Soviet Cold War context. The key may be to seek nonmilitary means of deterrence, i.e., diplomatic ways to manipulate the tension to China's disadvantage.
Book Synopsis Deterrence and Strategic Culture by : Shu Guang Zhang
Download or read book Deterrence and Strategic Culture written by Shu Guang Zhang and published by Cornell University Press. This book was released on 2019-06-30 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Does strategic thinking on the question of deterrence vary between cultures? Should practitioners assume a common understanding of deterrence regardless of national and cultural differences? Shu Guang Zhang takes on these questions by exploring Sino-American confrontations between 1949 and 1958. Zhang draws on recently declassified U.S. documents and previously inaccessible Chinese Communist Party records to demonstrate that the Chinese and the Americans had vastly different assessments of each other's intentions, interests, threats, strengths, and policies during this period.
Book Synopsis The United States, China, and Taiwan by : Robert Blackwill
Download or read book The United States, China, and Taiwan written by Robert Blackwill and published by Council on Foreign Relations Press. This book was released on 2021-02-11 with total page 102 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Taiwan "is becoming the most dangerous flash point in the world for a possible war that involves the United States, China, and probably other major powers," warn Robert D. Blackwill, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Henry A. Kissinger senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy, and Philip Zelikow, University of Virginia White Burkett Miller professor of history. In a new Council Special Report, The United States, China, and Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War, the authors argue that the United States should change and clarify its strategy to prevent war over Taiwan. "The U.S. strategic objective regarding Taiwan should be to preserve its political and economic autonomy, its dynamism as a free society, and U.S.-allied deterrence-without triggering a Chinese attack on Taiwan." "We do not think it is politically or militarily realistic to count on a U.S. military defeat of various kinds of Chinese assaults on Taiwan, uncoordinated with allies. Nor is it realistic to presume that, after such a frustrating clash, the United States would or should simply escalate to some sort of wide-scale war against China with comprehensive blockades or strikes against targets on the Chinese mainland." "If U.S. campaign plans postulate such unrealistic scenarios," the authors add, "they will likely be rejected by an American president and by the U.S. Congress." But, they observe, "the resulting U.S. paralysis would not be the result of presidential weakness or timidity. It might arise because the most powerful country in the world did not have credible options prepared for the most dangerous military crisis looming in front of it." Proposing "a realistic strategic objective for Taiwan, and the associated policy prescriptions, to sustain the political balance that has kept the peace for the last fifty years," the authors urge the Joe Biden administration to affirm that it is not trying to change Taiwan's status; work with its allies, especially Japan, to prepare new plans that could challenge Chinese military moves against Taiwan and help Taiwan defend itself, yet put the burden of widening a war on China; and visibly plan, beforehand, for the disruption and mobilization that could follow a wider war, but without assuming that such a war would or should escalate to the Chinese, Japanese, or American homelands. "The horrendous global consequences of a war between the United States and China, most likely over Taiwan, should preoccupy the Biden team, beginning with the president," the authors conclude.
Author :Douglas McCready Publisher :Strategic Studies Institute U. S. Army War College ISBN 13 : Total Pages :56 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (243 download)
Book Synopsis Crisis Deterrence in the Taiwan Strait by : Douglas McCready
Download or read book Crisis Deterrence in the Taiwan Strait written by Douglas McCready and published by Strategic Studies Institute U. S. Army War College. This book was released on 2003 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For more than 50 years, Taiwan's unresolved international status has been the cause of repeated crises in East Asia. While the parties involved could be willing to live with the status quo, the domestic political transformation of Taiwan has called the status quo into question. China, Taiwan, the United States, and Japan have national interests in how the conflict is resolved, and these interests will be difficult to reconcile. By conventional measures, China cannot gain Taiwan by force before the end of this decade. Chinese leaders believe that, b y using asymmetrical means, they will be able to overcome the military advantage of the United States and Taiwan. While the United States will be able to delay Chinese action against Taiwan, it is unlikely to be successful at long-term deterrence. Deterrence, as used against the Soviet Union during the Cold War, will not be effective with China without significant modification. The cultural divide affects not only deterrence theory, but also how China and the United States understand and communicate with each other. Crisis deterrence in the Taiwan Strait is unlikely to succeed due to conflicting national interests and several crucial mutual misperceptions.
Download or read book Strait Rituals written by Pang Yang Huei and published by Hong Kong University Press. This book was released on 2019-03-01 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The two Taiwan Strait crises took place during a particularly tense period of the Cold War. Although each incident was relatively brief, their consequences loom large. Based on analyses of newly available documents from Beijing, Taipei, and Washington, Pang Yang Huei challenges conventional wisdom that claims Sino-US misperceptions of each other’s strategic concerns were critical in the 1950s. He underscores the fact that Washington, Taipei, and Beijing were actually aware of one another’s strategic intentions during the crises. He also demonstrates conclusively that both “crises” can be understood as a transformation from tacit communication to tacit accommodation. An important contribution of this study is a better understanding of the role of ritual, symbols, and gestures in international relations. While it is true that these two crises resulted in a stalemate, the fact that all parties were able to cultivate talks and negotiations brought relations, especially between the US and China, to a new and more stable level. Simply averting the threat of war was a major achievement. Strait Rituals is an important micro-history of a significant moment during the Cold War and a rich interpretation of the theoretical use of multiple points of view in writing history. It sets a new standard for understanding China’s place in the world. “Strait Rituals is a solidly detailed and thoroughly footnoted excursion into a critical stage of Cold War history. Dr. Pang’s exhaustive archival work sets a real standard in the amalgamation of different sources to reevaluate the Taiwan Strait crises in the 1950s, the repercussions of which can still be felt today.” —Hsiao-ting Lin, Hoover Institution, Stanford University “An excellent book for those interested in the Taiwan Strait crises in the context of the overall history of international affairs in the Asia-Pacific region. The book will prove to be of great value to those interested in the history of the region that is bound to increase in importance in the years to come.” —Akira Iriye, Harvard University “Dispassionate, balanced, rigorous in the presentation of facts, much drawn from Chinese archival sources, Pang Yang Huei’s work will be indispensable for anyone seeking to understand the issues surrounding this Cold War hangover that continues to trouble contemporary politics across the Taiwan Strait.” —Geoffrey C. Gunn, Journal of Contemporary Asia
Book Synopsis Dangerous Strait by : Nancy Bernkopf Tucker
Download or read book Dangerous Strait written by Nancy Bernkopf Tucker and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2005-03-24 with total page 287 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Today the most dangerous place on earth is arguably the Taiwan Strait, where a war between the United States and China could erupt out of miscalculation, misunderstanding, or accident. How and to what degree Taiwan pursues its own national identity will have profound ramifications in its relationship with China as well as in relations between China and the United States. Events late in 2004 demonstrated the volatility of the situation, as Taiwan's legislative elections unexpectedly preserved a slim majority for supporters of closer relations with China. Beijing, nevertheless, threatened to pass an anti-secession law, apt to revitalize pro-independence forces in Taiwan—and make war more likely. Taking change as a central theme, these essays by prominent scholars and practitioners in the arena of U.S.-Taiwan-Chinese relations combine historical context with timely analysis of an accelerating crisis. The book clarifies historical developments, examines myths about past and present policies, and assesses issues facing contemporary policymakers. Moving beyond simplistic explanations that dominate discussion about the U.S.-Taiwan-China relationship, Dangerous Strait challenges common wisdom and approaches the political, economic, and strategic aspects of the cross-Strait situation anew. The result is a collection that provides fresh and much-needed insights into a complex problem and examines the ways in which catastrophe can be avoided. The essays examine a variety of issues, including the movement for independence and its place in Taiwanese domestic politics; the underlying weaknesses of democracy in Taiwan; and the significance of China and Taiwan's economic interdependence. In the security arena, contributors provide incisive critiques of Taiwan's incomplete military modernization; strains in U.S.-Taiwan relations and their differing interpretations of China's intentions; and the misguided inclination among some U.S. policymakers to abandon Washington's traditional policy of strategic ambiguity.
Book Synopsis Deterrence in American Foreign Policy: Theory and Practice by : Alexander L. George
Download or read book Deterrence in American Foreign Policy: Theory and Practice written by Alexander L. George and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 1974 with total page 684 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Tailored Deterrence by : Barry R. Schneider
Download or read book Tailored Deterrence written by Barry R. Schneider and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 466 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis If China Attacks Taiwan by : Steve Tsang
Download or read book If China Attacks Taiwan written by Steve Tsang and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2010-04-05 with total page 313 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a new analysis of the key issues facing Chinese policy makers in their approach towards Taiwan. This is one of the most tense and potentially explosive relationships in world politics. This book explains succinctly the impetus, the methods and the consequences if China is to use force, a prospect that has become greater following the return of President Chen Shui-bian to power in Taiwan for a second term in 2004. If China Attacks Taiwan shows how in reality there can be no real winner in such an eventuality and how the consequences would be dire not just for Taiwan and China, but East Asia as a whole. Whether China will use force depends ultimately on how its policy making apparatus assess potential US intervention, whether its armed forces can subdue Taiwan and counter US military involvement, as well as on its assessment of the likely consequences. Given the extremely high probability of American involvement this volume appeals to not only scholars and students working on China, its foreign policy and the security and prosperity of East Asia, but also to policy makers and journalists interested in China’s rise and its defense policy, Taiwan’s security and development, regional stability as well as US policy toward China and the East Asia region generally. This book is essential for understanding China’s efforts to achieve a ‘peaceful rise’, which requires it to transform itself into a global power not by the actual use of force but by diplomacy backed up by rapidly expanding military power. This book is an excellent resource for all students and scholars of military and security studies, Asian (China/Taiwan) studies and international relations
Book Synopsis The Chinese Invasion Threat by : Ian Easton
Download or read book The Chinese Invasion Threat written by Ian Easton and published by . This book was released on 2019-04-11 with total page 428 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Exposing internal Chinese military documents and restricted-access studies, The Chinese Invasion Threat explores the secret world of war planning and strategy, espionage and national security. The untold story of the most dangerous flashpoint of our times.
Book Synopsis The Military Lens by : Christopher P. Twomey
Download or read book The Military Lens written by Christopher P. Twomey and published by Cornell University Press. This book was released on 2011-07-15 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In The Military Lens, Christopher P. Twomey shows how differing military doctrines have led to misperceptions between the United States and China over foreign policy—and the potential dangers these might pose in future relations. Because of their different strategic situations, histories, and military cultures, nations may have radically disparate definitions of effective military doctrine, strategy, and capabilities. Twomey argues that when such doctrines—or "theories of victory"—differ across states, misperceptions about a rival's capabilities and intentions and false optimism about one's own are more likely to occur. In turn, these can impede international diplomacy and statecraft by making it more difficult to communicate and agree on assessments of the balance of power. When states engage in strategic coercion—either to deter or to compel action—such problems can lead to escalation and war. Twomey assesses a wide array of sources in both the United States and China on military doctrine, strategic culture, misperception, and deterrence theory to build case studies of attempts at strategic coercion during Sino-American conflicts in Korea and the Taiwan Strait in the early years of the Cold War, as well as an examination of similar issues in the Arab-Israeli conflict. After demonstrating how these factors have contributed to past conflicts, Twomey amply documents the persistence of hazardous miscommunication in contemporary Sino-American relations. His unique analytic perspective on military capability suggests that policymakers need to carefully consider the military doctrine of the nations they are trying to influence.
Download or read book Dire Strait? written by David A. Shlapak and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2000 with total page 87 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Among the hottest flashpoints in the world today, the Taiwan Strait cannot be ignored by U.S. policymakers and diplomats. China regularly rattles its saber to intimidate Taiwan and influence U.S. policy but has thus far stopped short of overt military action. This report analyzes the steps Taiwan should take to bolster the odds in its favor should a conflict with the mainland occur and describes how the United States can most effectively contribute in both peace and crisis. The authors conclude that the United States and Taiwan can take a number of fairly simple and relatively inexpensive measures - including hardening air bases and other facilities and upgrading the air defense command and control system - that would significantly enhance Taiwan's ability to defend itself against a large-scale Chinese attack.
Book Synopsis China’s Evolving Approach to “Integrated Strategic Deterrence” by : Michael S. Chase
Download or read book China’s Evolving Approach to “Integrated Strategic Deterrence” written by Michael S. Chase and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2016-04-07 with total page 79 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Drawing on Chinese military writings, this report finds that China’s strategic-deterrence concepts are evolving in response to Beijing’s changing assessment of its external security environment and a growing emphasis on protecting its emerging interests in space and cyberspace. China also is rapidly closing what was once a substantial gap between the People’s Liberation Army’s strategic weapons capabilities and its strategic-deterrence concepts.
Book Synopsis China and Taiwan by : Steven M. Goldstein
Download or read book China and Taiwan written by Steven M. Goldstein and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-11-12 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Relations between Taiwan and the Peoples Republic of China have oscillated between outright hostility and wary detente ever since the Archipelago seceded from the Communist mainland over six decades ago. While the mainland has long coveted the island, Taiwan has resisted - aided by the United States which continues to play a decisive role in cross-strait relations today. In this comprehensive analysis, noted China specialist Steven Goldstein shows that although relations between Taiwan and its larger neighbor have softened, underlying tensions remain unresolved. These embers of conflict could burst into flames at any point, engulfing the whole region and potentially dragging the United States into a dangerous confrontation with the PRC Guiding readers expertly through the historical background to the complexities of this fragile peace, Goldstein discusses the shifting economic, political and security terrain, and examines the pivotal role played by the United States in providing weapons and diplomatic support to Taiwan whilst managing a complex relationship with an increasingly powerful China. Drawing on a wealth of newly declassified material, this compelling and insightful book is an invaluable guide to one of the worlds riskiest, long-running conflicts.
Book Synopsis The Paradox of Power by : David C. Gompert
Download or read book The Paradox of Power written by David C. Gompert and published by Government Printing Office. This book was released on 2020 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The second half of the 20th century featured a strategic competition between the United States and the Soviet Union. That competition avoided World War III in part because during the 1950s, scholars like Henry Kissinger, Thomas Schelling, Herman Kahn, and Albert Wohlstetter analyzed the fundamental nature of nuclear deterrence. Decades of arms control negotiations reinforced these early notions of stability and created a mutual understanding that allowed U.S.-Soviet competition to proceed without armed conflict. The first half of the 21st century will be dominated by the relationship between the United States and China. That relationship is likely to contain elements of both cooperation and competition. Territorial disputes such as those over Taiwan and the South China Sea will be an important feature of this competition, but both are traditional disputes, and traditional solutions suggest themselves. A more difficult set of issues relates to U.S.-Chinese competition and cooperation in three domains in which real strategic harm can be inflicted in the current era: nuclear, space, and cyber. Just as a clearer understanding of the fundamental principles of nuclear deterrence maintained adequate stability during the Cold War, a clearer understanding of the characteristics of these three domains can provide the underpinnings of strategic stability between the United States and China in the decades ahead. That is what this book is about.
Book Synopsis Pivotal Deterrence by : Timothy W. Crawford
Download or read book Pivotal Deterrence written by Timothy W. Crawford and published by Cornell University Press. This book was released on 2003 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Crawford explains the political dynamics of pivotal deterrence and the conditions under which it is likely to succeed, while examining some of its most impressive feats and failures. German Chancellor Otto von Bismarck's agile approach to the 1870s Eastern Crisis, which prevented war between Russia and Austria-Hungary, is contrasted with Britain's ambiguous and ill-fated maneuvers to deter Germany and France in July 1914. Shifting to the 1960s Cold War, Crawford explores the successes and setbacks in U.S. efforts to prevent NATO allies Greece and Turkey from fighting over Cyprus and to defuse the Kashmir conflict between India and Pakistan."--BOOK JACKET.
Book Synopsis A Question of Balance by : David A. Shlapak
Download or read book A Question of Balance written by David A. Shlapak and published by Rand Corporation Monograph. This book was released on 2009 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Evaluates key aspects of the China-Taiwan military balance, including: how are the political dynamics of the cross-strait relationship changing, and how could those changes affect perceptions of the military balance? How effective might China's growing force of short-range ballistic missiles be in attacking key military targets on Taiwan, such as air bases? How have changes in Chinese military capabilities changed the likely outcome of a possible contest for air superiority over the strait and Taiwan itself? How can Taiwan be successfully defended against a Chinese invasion attempt?
