Counterfactual Reasoning

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The Psychology of Counterfactual Thinking

Author : David R. Mandel
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1134353197
Total Pages : 265 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (343 download)

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Book Synopsis The Psychology of Counterfactual Thinking by : David R. Mandel

Download or read book The Psychology of Counterfactual Thinking written by David R. Mandel and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2007-05-07 with total page 265 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a critical overview of significant developments in research and theory on counterfactual thinking that have emerged in recent years and spotlights exciting new directions for future research in this area. Key issues considered include the relations between counterfactual and casual reasoning, the functional bases of counterfactual thinking, the role of counterfactual thinking in the experience of emotion and the importance of counterfactual thinking in the context of crime and justice.

What Might Have Been

Author : Neal J. Roese
Publisher : Psychology Press
ISBN 13 : 1317780469
Total Pages : 418 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (177 download)

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Book Synopsis What Might Have Been by : Neal J. Roese

Download or read book What Might Have Been written by Neal J. Roese and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2014-01-14 with total page 418 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Within a few short years, research on counterfactual thinking has mushroomed, establishing itself as one of the signature domains within social psychology. Counterfactuals are thoughts of what might have been, of possible past outcomes that could have taken place. Counterfactuals and their implications for perceptions of time and causality have long fascinated philosophers, but only recently have social psychologists made them the focus of empirical inquiry. Following the publication of Kahneman and Tversky's seminal 1982 paper, a burgeoning literature has implicated counterfactual thinking in such diverse judgments as causation, blame, prediction, and suspicion; in such emotional experiences as regret, elation, disappointment and sympathy; and also in achievement, coping, and intergroup bias. But how do such thoughts come about? What are the mechanisms underlying their operation? How do their consequences benefit, or harm, the individual? When is their generation spontaneous and when is it strategic? This volume explores these and other numerous issues by assembling contributions from the most active researchers in this rapidly expanding subfield of social psychology. Each chapter provides an in-depth exploration of a particular conceptual facet of counterfactual thinking, reviewing previous work, describing ongoing, cutting-edge research, and offering novel theoretical analysis and synthesis. As the first edited volume to bring together the many threads of research and theory on counterfactual thinking, this book promises to be a source of insight and inspiration for years to come.

Counterfactual Reasoning

Author : Ph D. Noel Hendrickson
Publisher : Lulu.com
ISBN 13 : 1105055639
Total Pages : 87 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (5 download)

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Book Synopsis Counterfactual Reasoning by : Ph D. Noel Hendrickson

Download or read book Counterfactual Reasoning written by Ph D. Noel Hendrickson and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2011-09-16 with total page 87 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Counterfactual reasoning evaluates conditional claims about alternate possibilities and their consequences (i.e., ?What If? statements). Counterfactuals are essential to intelligence analysis. The process of counterfactual reasoning has three stages. First, one must establish the particular way in which the alternate possibility comes to be (i.e., develop its ?back-story?). Second, one must evaluate the events that occur between the time of the alternate possibility and the time for which one is considering its consequences. And third, one must examine the possible consequences of the alternate possibility's back-story and the events that follow it. In doing so, an analyst must connect conclusions to speci

Interpretable Machine Learning

Author : Christoph Molnar
Publisher : Lulu.com
ISBN 13 : 0244768528
Total Pages : 320 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (447 download)

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Book Synopsis Interpretable Machine Learning by : Christoph Molnar

Download or read book Interpretable Machine Learning written by Christoph Molnar and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2020 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is about making machine learning models and their decisions interpretable. After exploring the concepts of interpretability, you will learn about simple, interpretable models such as decision trees, decision rules and linear regression. Later chapters focus on general model-agnostic methods for interpreting black box models like feature importance and accumulated local effects and explaining individual predictions with Shapley values and LIME. All interpretation methods are explained in depth and discussed critically. How do they work under the hood? What are their strengths and weaknesses? How can their outputs be interpreted? This book will enable you to select and correctly apply the interpretation method that is most suitable for your machine learning project.

Understanding Counterfactuals, Understanding Causation

Author : Christoph Hoerl
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0199590699
Total Pages : 279 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (995 download)

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Book Synopsis Understanding Counterfactuals, Understanding Causation by : Christoph Hoerl

Download or read book Understanding Counterfactuals, Understanding Causation written by Christoph Hoerl and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2011-11-03 with total page 279 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Twelve essays explore what bearing empirical findings might have on philosophical concerns about counterfactuals and causation, and how, in turn, work in philosophy might help clarify issues in empirical work on the relationships between causal and counterfactual thought.

Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics

Author : Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780691027913
Total Pages : 362 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (279 download)

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Book Synopsis Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics by : Philip E. Tetlock

Download or read book Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 1996-09-08 with total page 362 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume--including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Russett, and Barry Weingast--find such counterfactual conjectures not only useful, but necessary for drawing causal inferences from historical data. Given the importance of counterfactuals, it is perhaps surprising that we lack standards for evaluating them. To fill this gap, Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin propose a set of criteria for distinguishing plausible from implausible counterfactual conjectures across a wide range of applications. The contributors to this volume make use of these and other criteria to evaluate counterfactuals that emerge in diverse methodological contexts including comparative case studies, game theory, and statistical analysis. Taken together, these essays go a long way toward establishing a more nuanced and rigorous framework for assessing counterfactual arguments about world politics in particular and about the social sciences more broadly.

Children's Reasoning and the Mind

Author : Peter Mitchell
Publisher : Psychology Press
ISBN 13 : 1317715225
Total Pages : 430 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (177 download)

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Book Synopsis Children's Reasoning and the Mind by : Peter Mitchell

Download or read book Children's Reasoning and the Mind written by Peter Mitchell and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2014-06-03 with total page 430 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This fresh and dynamic book offers a thorough investigation into the development of the cognitive processes that underpin judgements about mental states (often termed 'theory of mind') and addresses specific issues that have not been adequately dealt with in the past, and which are now being raised by some of the most prominent researchers in the field.

The Functional Basis of Counterfactual Thinking [microform]

Author : Neal J. Roese
Publisher : National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada
ISBN 13 : 9780315840034
Total Pages : 482 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (4 download)

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Book Synopsis The Functional Basis of Counterfactual Thinking [microform] by : Neal J. Roese

Download or read book The Functional Basis of Counterfactual Thinking [microform] written by Neal J. Roese and published by National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada. This book was released on 1993 with total page 482 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These findings provide initial support for a functional theory of counterfactual thinking: people may strategically use downward counterfactuals to make themselves feel better (an affective function), and they may strategically use upward and additive counterfactuals to improve performance in the future (a preparative function). The present studies suggest that the mechanism underlying the preparative function represents a causal link from counterfactuals to intentions to overt behaviours. Implications for current theory and future research are considered.

Counterfactual Reasoning

Author : Noel Hendrickson
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781452863573
Total Pages : 86 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (635 download)

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Book Synopsis Counterfactual Reasoning by : Noel Hendrickson

Download or read book Counterfactual Reasoning written by Noel Hendrickson and published by . This book was released on 2008-10-15 with total page 86 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Counterfactual reasoning is the process of evaluating conditional claims about alternate possibilities and their consequences (i.e., "What If" statements). These alternatives can be either past possibilities or future possibilities. Counterfactuals are essential to intelligence analysis because they are implicit in all strategic assessments. The process of counterfactual reasoning has three stages. The ?rst two of these are somewhat counterintuitive and are easily ignored by analysts. First, one must establish the particular way in which the alternate possibility comes to be (i.e., develop its "back-story"). Second, one must evaluate the events that occur between the time of the alternate possibility and the time for which one is considering its consequences. And third, one must examine the possible consequences of the alternate possibility's back-story and the events that follow it. In doing so, an analyst must connect their conclusion to the speci?c type of strategic assessment the counterfactual will be used to support: decision making under risk or decision making under uncertainty. Includes notes, glossary and references. Noel Hendrickson is Director of the Institute for National Security Analysis.

The Rational Imagination

Author : Ruth M. J. Byrne
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262261845
Total Pages : 284 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (618 download)

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Book Synopsis The Rational Imagination by : Ruth M. J. Byrne

Download or read book The Rational Imagination written by Ruth M. J. Byrne and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2007-01-26 with total page 284 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The human imagination remains one of the last uncharted terrains of the mind. This accessible and original monograph explores a central aspect of the imagination, the creation of counterfactual alternatives to reality, and claims that imaginative thoughts are guided by the same principles that underlie rational thoughts. Research has shown that rational thought is more imaginative than cognitive scientists had supposed; in The Rational Imagination, Ruth Byrne argues that imaginative thought is more rational than scientists have imagined. People often create alternatives to reality and imagine how events might have turned out "if only" something had been different. Byrne explores the "fault lines" of reality, the aspects of reality that are more readily changed in imaginative thoughts. She finds that our tendencies to imagine alternatives to actions, controllable events, socially unacceptable actions, causal and enabling relations, and events that come last in a temporal sequence provide clues to the cognitive processes upon which the counterfactual imagination depends. The explanation of these processes, Byrne argues, rests on the idea that imaginative thought and rational thought have much in common.

Counterfactual Thinking - Counterfactual Writing

Author : Dorothee Birke
Publisher : Walter de Gruyter
ISBN 13 : 3110268663
Total Pages : 264 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (12 download)

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Book Synopsis Counterfactual Thinking - Counterfactual Writing by : Dorothee Birke

Download or read book Counterfactual Thinking - Counterfactual Writing written by Dorothee Birke and published by Walter de Gruyter. This book was released on 2011-11-30 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Counterfactuality is currently a hotly debated topic. While for some disciplines such as linguistics, cognitive science, or psychology counterfactual scenarios have been an important object of study for quite a while, counterfactual thinking has in recent years emerged as a method of study for other disciplines, most notably the social sciences. This volume provides an overview of the current definitions and uses of the concept of counterfactuality in philosophy, historiography, political sciences, psychology, linguistics, physics, and literary studies. The individual contributions not only engage the controversies that the deployment of counterfactual thinking as a method still generates, they also highlight the concept’s potential to promote interdisciplinary exchange without neglecting the limitations and pitfalls of such a project. Moreover, the essays from literary studies, which make up about half of the volume, provide both a historical and a systematic perspective on the manifold ways in which counterfactual scenarios can be incorporated into and deployed in literary texts.

Counterfactuals

Author : Christopher Prendergast
Publisher : Bloomsbury Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1350090077
Total Pages : 257 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (5 download)

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Book Synopsis Counterfactuals by : Christopher Prendergast

Download or read book Counterfactuals written by Christopher Prendergast and published by Bloomsbury Publishing. This book was released on 2019-04-04 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What are counterfactuals and what is their point? In many cases, none at all. It may be true that if kangaroos didn't have tails, they would fall over, but they do have tails and if they didn't they wouldn't be kangaroos (or would they?). This is the sort of thing that can give counterfactuals a bad name, as inhabitants of a La La Land of the mind. On the other hand, counterfactuals do useful service across a broad range of disciplines in both the sciences and the humanities, including philosophy, history, cosmology, biology, cognitive psychology, jurisprudence, economics, art history, literary theory. They are also richly, albeit sometimes treacherously, present in the everyday human realm of how our lives are both imagined and lived: in the 'crossroads' scenario of decision-making, the place of regret in retrospective assessments of paths taken and not taken, and, at the outer limit, as the wish not to have been born. Christopher Prendergast take us on a dizzying exploratory journey through some of these intellectual and human landscapes, mobilizing a wide range of reference from antiquity to the present, and sustained by the belief that, whether as help or hindrance, and with many variations across cultures, counterfactual thinking and imagining are fundamental to what it is to be human.

IFS

Author : W.L. Harper
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9400991177
Total Pages : 345 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (9 download)

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Book Synopsis IFS by : W.L. Harper

Download or read book IFS written by W.L. Harper and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 345 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With publication of the present volume, The University of Western Ontario Series in Philosophy of Science enters its second phase. The first fourteen volumes in the Series were produced under the managing editorship of Professor James J. Leach, with the cooperation of a local editorial board. Many of these volumes resulted from colloguia and workshops held in con nection with the University of Western Ontario Graduate Programme in Philosophy of Science. Throughout its seven year history, the Series has been devoted to publication of high quality work in philosophy of science con sidered in its widest extent, including work in philosophy of the special sciences and history of the conceptual development of science. In future, this general editorial emphasis will be maintained, and hopefully, broadened to include important works by scholars working outside the local context. Appointment of a new managing editor, together with an expanded editorial board, brings with it the hope of an enlarged international presence for the Series. Serving the publication needs of those working in the various subfields within philosophy of science is a many-faceted operation. Thus in future the Series will continue to produce edited proceedings of worthwhile scholarly meetings and edited collections of seminal background papers. How ever, the publication priorities will shift emphasis to favour production of monographs in the various fields covered by the scope of the Series. THE MANAGING EDITOR vii W. L. Harper, R. Stalnaker, and G. Pearce (eds.), lIs, vii.

Counterfactuals

Author : David Lewis
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118696417
Total Pages : 183 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (186 download)

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Book Synopsis Counterfactuals by : David Lewis

Download or read book Counterfactuals written by David Lewis and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-05-28 with total page 183 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Counterfactuals is David Lewis' forceful presentation of and sustained argument for a particular view about propositions which express contrary to fact conditionals, including his famous defense of realism about possible worlds.

Forbidden Fruit

Author : Richard Ned Lebow
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 0691132909
Total Pages : 347 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (911 download)

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Book Synopsis Forbidden Fruit by : Richard Ned Lebow

Download or read book Forbidden Fruit written by Richard Ned Lebow and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2010-02-07 with total page 347 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Could World War I have been averted if Franz Ferdinand and his wife hadn't been murdered by Serbian nationalists in 1914? What if Ronald Reagan had been killed by Hinckley's bullet? Would the Cold War have ended as it did? In Forbidden Fruit, Richard Ned Lebow develops protocols for conducting robust counterfactual thought experiments and uses them to probe the causes and contingency of transformative international developments like World War I and the end of the Cold War. He uses experiments, surveys, and a short story to explore why policymakers, historians, and international relations scholars are so resistant to the contingency and indeterminism inherent in open-ended, nonlinear systems. Most controversially, Lebow argues that the difference between counterfactual and so-called factual arguments is misleading, as both can be evidence-rich and logically persuasive. A must-read for social scientists, Forbidden Fruit also examines the binary between fact and fiction and the use of counterfactuals in fictional works like Philip Roth's The Plot Against America to understand complex causation and its implications for who we are and what we think makes the social world work.

Mental Causation

Author : Thomas Kroedel
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1108487149
Total Pages : 235 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (84 download)

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Book Synopsis Mental Causation by : Thomas Kroedel

Download or read book Mental Causation written by Thomas Kroedel and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2019-12-19 with total page 235 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Presents a comprehensive account of how the mind causes things to happen in the physical world. This book is also available as Open Access.

Modality and Explanatory Reasoning

Author : Boris Christian Kment
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN 13 : 0199604681
Total Pages : 385 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (996 download)

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Book Synopsis Modality and Explanatory Reasoning by : Boris Christian Kment

Download or read book Modality and Explanatory Reasoning written by Boris Christian Kment and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2014 with total page 385 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Argues that the concepts of necessity and possibility originate in a common type of thought experiment, counterfactual reasoning, that allows us to investigate explanatory connections and is colsely related to the controlled experiments of empirical science.