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Cost And Schedule Risk Analysis
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Book Synopsis Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis by : Dr David Hulett
Download or read book Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis written by Dr David Hulett and published by Gower Publishing, Ltd.. This book was released on 2012-09-28 with total page 241 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Project managers tend to believe their cost estimates - whether they have exceeded budgets in the past or not. It is dangerous to accept the engineering cost estimates, which are often optimistic or unrealistic. Though cost estimates incorporate contingency reserves below-the-line, these estimates of reserves often do not benefit from a rigorous assessment of risk to project costs. Risks to cost come from multiple sources including uncertain project duration, which is often ignored in cost risk analyses. In short, experience shows that cost estimating on projects is rarely successful - cost overruns routinely occur. There are effective ways to estimate the impact on the cost of complex projects from project risks of all types, including traditional cost-type risks and the indirect but often substantial impact from risks usually thought of as affecting project schedules. Integrated cost-schedule risk anlaysis helps us determine how likely the project will go over budget with the current plan, how much contingency reserve is required to achieve a desired level of certainty, and which risks are most important so the project manager can mitigate them and achieve a better result. Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis provides solutions for these and other challenges. This book follows on from David Hulett's highly-praised Practical Schedule Risk Analysis. It focuses on the way that schedule risk can generate cost risk, and how to handle this relationship. It also applies the Risk Driver Method to the analysis so that you can clearly and transparently identify the key risks, rather than just the most risky cost line items. With detailed worked examples and over 70 illustrations, Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis offers the definitive guide to this critically important aspect of project management from surely the world's leading commentator.
Book Synopsis Integrated Cost-schedule Risk Analysis by : David T. Hulett
Download or read book Integrated Cost-schedule Risk Analysis written by David T. Hulett and published by Gower Publishing, Ltd.. This book was released on 2011 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This companion volume to Practical Schedule Risk Analysis explores the second area where projects so often go horribly wrong - project cost. Many cost estimates are fundamentally flawed in their conception, become written in stone when the project is approved and consequently fall apart during the project implementation and delivery. David Hulett explains the true value of project cost estimating and how to manage the risks associated with project costs and project schedules. Given the scale of the investment in many modern projects, this is surely a book that is worth its weight in gold.
Book Synopsis Practical Schedule Risk Analysis by : David Hulett
Download or read book Practical Schedule Risk Analysis written by David Hulett and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2016-04-08 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Project scheduling is required for good project management, and the schedule represents the project plan under a specific set of assumptions, often that it will avoid new risks or even those that have occurred on previous occasions. The typical Critical Path Method (CPM) schedule assumes that the project team knows how long the scheduled activities will take. Yet, the experienced project manager knows that duration values so precisely stated are actually only estimates based on assumptions that could be wrong. A schedule risk analysis explores the implications for the project's schedule of risk to the activity durations and also identifies the most important schedule risks. This analysis, building on and extending CPM scheduling, will result in a more accurate estimate of completion and provide an early opportunity for planning effective risk mitigation actions. Practical Schedule Risk Analysis contains a complete treatment of schedule risk analysis from basic to advanced concepts. The methods are introduced at the simplest level: * Why is the duration uncertain? * And how do we represent this uncertainty with a probability distribution? These are then progressively elaborated: * How does uncertainty of activities along a path lead to more uncertainty of the path's completion date? * How can a schedule with parallel paths be riskier than each of the paths individually? * How can we represent risks about activities that are not in the schedule at all? Culminating in a discussion of the most powerful and advanced capabilities available in current commercial software. Schedule risk analysis is a process that is industry-independent, and the methods explained in this volume have been used by the author with positive effect in such industries as construction, oil and gas, information systems, environmental restoration and aerospace/defense. The result is a book that is not only highly practical; something that people within all types of projects and in all industries can apply themselves; but that is an extraordinarily complete guide to creating and managing a rigorous project schedule.
Book Synopsis Project Risk Quantification by : John K. Hollmann
Download or read book Project Risk Quantification written by John K. Hollmann and published by . This book was released on 2016-06-28 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Project Risk Quantification presents the most practical, realistic, and integrated approach to project cost and schedule Risk Quantification that is available today. It offers proven, empirically-valid methods and tools applicable to projects of all types and at all decision gates. The text is written for both the manager and the risk analysis practitioner. It will bring reliable accuracy and contingency determination to your capital project organization.
Book Synopsis Project Management with Dynamic Scheduling by : Mario Vanhoucke
Download or read book Project Management with Dynamic Scheduling written by Mario Vanhoucke and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-11-29 with total page 321 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The topic of this book is known as dynamic scheduling, and is used to refer to three dimensions of project management and scheduling: the construction of a baseline schedule and the analysis of a project schedule’s risk as preparation of the project control phase during project progress. This dynamic scheduling point of view implicitly assumes that the usability of a project’s baseline schedule is rather limited and only acts as a point of reference in the project life cycle. Consequently, a project schedule should especially be considered as nothing more than a predictive model that can be used for resource efficiency calculations, time and cost risk analyses, project tracking and performance measurement, and so on. In this book, the three dimensions of dynamic scheduling are highlighted in detail and are based on and inspired by a combination of academic research studies at Ghent University (www.ugent.be), in-company trainings at Vlerick Business School (www.vlerick.com) and consultancy projects at OR-AS (www.or-as.be). First, the construction of a project baseline schedule is a central theme throughout the various chapters of the book, and is discussed from a complexity point of view with and without the presence of project resources. Second, the creation of an awareness of the weak parts in a baseline schedule is discussed at the end of the two baseline scheduling parts as schedule risk analysis techniques that can be applied on top of the baseline schedule. Third, the baseline schedule and its risk analyses can be used as guidelines during the project control step where actual deviations can be corrected within the margins of the project’s time and cost reserves. The second edition of this book has seen corrections, additions and amendments in detail throughout the book. Moreover Chapter 15 on "Dynamic Scheduling with ProTrack" has been completely rewritten and extended with a section on "ProTrack as a research tool".
Book Synopsis The Owner's Role in Project Risk Management by : National Research Council
Download or read book The Owner's Role in Project Risk Management written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2005-02-25 with total page 102 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Effective risk management is essential for the success of large projects built and operated by the Department of Energy (DOE), particularly for the one-of-a-kind projects that characterize much of its mission. To enhance DOE's risk management efforts, the department asked the NRC to prepare a summary of the most effective practices used by leading owner organizations. The study's primary objective was to provide DOE project managers with a basic understanding of both the project owner's risk management role and effective oversight of those risk management activities delegated to contractors.
Book Synopsis Identifying and Managing Project Risk by : Tom Kendrick
Download or read book Identifying and Managing Project Risk written by Tom Kendrick and published by AMACOM. This book was released on 2009-02-27 with total page 370 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Winner of the Project Management Institute’s David I. Cleland Project Management Literature Award 2010 It’s no wonder that project managers spend so much time focusing their attention on risk identification. Important projects tend to be time constrained, pose huge technical challenges, and suffer from a lack of adequate resources. Identifying and Managing Project Risk, now updated and consistent with the very latest Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK)® Guide, takes readers through every phase of a project, showing them how to consider the possible risks involved at every point in the process. Drawing on real-world situations and hundreds of examples, the book outlines proven methods, demonstrating key ideas for project risk planning and showing how to use high-level risk assessment tools. Analyzing aspects such as available resources, project scope, and scheduling, this new edition also explores the growing area of Enterprise Risk Management. Comprehensive and completely up-to-date, this book helps readers determine risk factors thoroughly and decisively...before a project gets derailed.
Book Synopsis Risk Management for Design and Construction by : Ovidiu Cretu
Download or read book Risk Management for Design and Construction written by Ovidiu Cretu and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-06-15 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The essential risk assessment guide for civil engineering, design, and construction Risk management allows construction professionals to identify the risks inherent in all projects, and to provide the tools for evaluating the probabilities and impacts to minimize the risk potential. This book introduces risk as a central pillar of project management and shows how a project manager can be prepared for dealing with uncertainty. Written by experts in the field, Risk Management for Design and Construction uses clear, straightforward terminology to demystify the concepts of project uncertainty and risk. Highlights include: Integrated cost and schedule risk analysis An introduction to a ready-to-use system of analyzing a project's risks and tools to proactively manage risks A methodology that was developed and used by the Washington State Department of Transportation Case studies and examples on the proper application of principles Information about combining value analysis with risk analysis "This book is a must for professionals who are seeking to move towards a proactive risk-centric management style. It is a valuable resource for students who are discovering the intricacies of uncertainties and risks within value estimation. For professionals, the book advocates for identifying and analyzing 'only' risks whose impact are of consequence to a project's performance." JOHN MILTON, PHD, PE Director of Enterprise Risk Management, Washington State Department of Transportation
Book Synopsis Solving for Project Risk Management: Understanding the Critical Role of Uncertainty in Project Management by : Christian B. Smart
Download or read book Solving for Project Risk Management: Understanding the Critical Role of Uncertainty in Project Management written by Christian B. Smart and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2020-11-23 with total page 321 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk is real—but you can manage it with this hard-hitting guide to reducing risk on any project, in any industry All projects, large and small, are subject to various risks. But the failure to manage inherent risk with diligence and know-how can lead to devastating consequences for an organization. In this comprehensive hands-on guide, a renowned expert in the field provides everything organizations need to conduct project risk management the right way. Why do so many projects come in over schedule and over budget? How do projected expenditures and schedules line up with reality? How can you accurately assess risk to mitigate financial disaster? Through a methodical, statistics-based approach, Christian B. Smart reveals: The enduring problem of cost and schedule growth How rigorous project risk management can reduce the impact of uncertainty The systematic tendency to underestimate risk—and how to avoid it Ways to accurately assess confidence levels in project risk management The need for proper risk management at the portfolio level The author lays out common problems and explains how to effectively solve them. And while he employs a wealth of illustrative charts, graphs, and statistics, he presents the material in an accessible style, and peppers the text with powerful personal anecdotes. Ideal for project managers, business analysts, and senior decision makers in both the public and private sectors, Solving for Project Risk Management offers everything you need to ensure your projects run smoothly, on budget, and deliver the expected outcomes.
Book Synopsis Completing the "Big Dig" by : Transportation Research Board
Download or read book Completing the "Big Dig" written by Transportation Research Board and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2003-03-21 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Boston's Central Artery/Tunnel Project, a 7.8 mile system of bridges and underground highways and ramps, is the most expensive public works project ever undertaken in the United States. The original cost estimate of $2.6 billion has already been exceeded by $12 billion, and the project will not be completed until 2005, seven years late. The Massachusetts Turnpike Authority (MTA), the public steward of the project, requested that the National Research Council carry out an independent assessment of the project's management and contract administration practices, with a focus on the present situation and measures that should be taken to bring the project to a successful conclusion. This report presents the committee's findings and recommendations pertaining to cost, scheduling, and transitioning from the current organization dominated by consultants to an operations organization composed largely of full-time MTA staff. The report recommends that MTA establish an external, independent, peer-review program to address technical and management issues until the transition to operations and maintenance is complete; begin a media campaign now to teach drivers how to use the new system safely; and develop, immediately implement, and maintain a comprehensive security program.
Download or read book Risk Analysis written by David Vose and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-04-28 with total page 754 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk Analysis concerns itself with the quantification of risk, the modeling of identified risks and how to make decisions from those models. Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) using Monte Carlo simulation offers a powerful and precise method for dealing with the uncertainty and variability of a problem. By providing the building blocks the author guides the reader through the necessary steps to produce an accurate risk analysis model and offers general and specific techniques to cope with most modeling problems. A wide range of solved problems is used to illustrate these techniques and how they can be used together to solve otherwise complex problems.
Book Synopsis Quantitative Risk Management and Decision Making in Construction by : Amarjit Singh
Download or read book Quantitative Risk Management and Decision Making in Construction written by Amarjit Singh and published by ASCE Press. This book was released on 2017 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Singh introduces valuable techniques for weighing and evaluating alternatives in decision making with a focus on risk analysis for identifying, quantifying, and mitigating risks associated with construction projects.
Book Synopsis Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis by : David Hulett
Download or read book Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis written by David Hulett and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2016-05-23 with total page 239 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Project managers tend to believe their cost estimates - whether they have exceeded budgets in the past or not. It is dangerous to accept the engineering cost estimates, which are often optimistic or unrealistic. Though cost estimates incorporate contingency reserves below-the-line, these estimates of reserves often do not benefit from a rigorous assessment of risk to project costs. Risks to cost come from multiple sources including uncertain project duration, which is often ignored in cost risk analyses. In short, experience shows that cost estimating on projects is rarely successful - cost overruns routinely occur. There are effective ways to estimate the impact on the cost of complex projects from project risks of all types, including traditional cost-type risks and the indirect but often substantial impact from risks usually thought of as affecting project schedules. Integrated cost-schedule risk anlaysis helps us determine how likely the project will go over budget with the current plan, how much contingency reserve is required to achieve a desired level of certainty, and which risks are most important so the project manager can mitigate them and achieve a better result. Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis provides solutions for these and other challenges. This book follows on from David Hulett's highly-praised Practical Schedule Risk Analysis. It focuses on the way that schedule risk can generate cost risk, and how to handle this relationship. It also applies the Risk Driver Method to the analysis so that you can clearly and transparently identify the key risks, rather than just the most risky cost line items. With detailed worked examples and over 70 illustrations, Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis offers the definitive guide to this critically important aspect of project management from surely the world's leading commentator.
Book Synopsis Analytical Methods for Risk Management by : Paul R. Garvey
Download or read book Analytical Methods for Risk Management written by Paul R. Garvey and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2008-10-20 with total page 284 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Text on the Foundation Processes, Analytical Principles, and Implementation Practices of Engineering Risk Management Drawing from the author's many years of hands-on experience in the field, Analytical Methods for Risk Management: A Systems Engineering Perspectivepresents the foundation processes and analytical practices
Book Synopsis Risk Management in Projects by : Martin Loosemore
Download or read book Risk Management in Projects written by Martin Loosemore and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2012-09-10 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Project managers in construction and civil engineering need to base their decisions on realistic information about risk and public perceptions of risk. This second edition of the original practical and straightforward text retains the easy-to-read format, but has been expanded to encompass the entire risk management process and to give a fuller presentation of how risk is generally perceived. Two new chapters cover risk identification and risk response, and the chapters on risk analysis have been completely reorganized. There is also greater emphasis on the theory behind the principles, and an expanded bibliography is given to guide an exploration of the subject in greater detail. The book demystifies risk management by presenting the subject in simple and practical terms, free of technical jargon, and case studies are used extensively to enliven the text and to illustrate the concepts discussed.
Book Synopsis Megaproject Risk Analysis and Simulation by : Prince Boateng
Download or read book Megaproject Risk Analysis and Simulation written by Prince Boateng and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2017-04-28 with total page 371 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Providing new knowledge on risk analysis and simulation for megaprojects, this book is essential reading for both academics and practitioners. Its focus is on technical descriptions of a newly developed dynamic systems approach to megaproject risk analysis and simulation.
Book Synopsis General Theory Of Employment , Interest And Money by : John Maynard Keynes
Download or read book General Theory Of Employment , Interest And Money written by John Maynard Keynes and published by Atlantic Publishers & Dist. This book was released on 2016-04 with total page 410 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: John Maynard Keynes is the great British economist of the twentieth century whose hugely influential work The General Theory of Employment, Interest and * is undoubtedly the century's most important book on economics--strongly influencing economic theory and practice, particularly with regard to the role of government in stimulating and regulating a nation's economic life. Keynes's work has undergone significant revaluation in recent years, and "Keynesian" views which have been widely defended for so long are now perceived as at odds with Keynes's own thinking. Recent scholarship and research has demonstrated considerable rivalry and controversy concerning the proper interpretation of Keynes's works, such that recourse to the original text is all the more important. Although considered by a few critics that the sentence structures of the book are quite incomprehensible and almost unbearable to read, the book is an essential reading for all those who desire a basic education in economics. The key to understanding Keynes is the notion that at particular times in the business cycle, an economy can become over-productive (or under-consumptive) and thus, a vicious spiral is begun that results in massive layoffs and cuts in production as businesses attempt to equilibrate aggregate supply and demand. Thus, full employment is only one of many or multiple macro equilibria. If an economy reaches an underemployment equilibrium, something is necessary to boost or stimulate demand to produce full employment. This something could be business investment but because of the logic and individualist nature of investment decisions, it is unlikely to rapidly restore full employment. Keynes logically seizes upon the public budget and government expenditures as the quickest way to restore full employment. Borrowing the * to finance the deficit from private households and businesses is a quick, direct way to restore full employment while at the same time, redirecting or siphoning
