Read Books Online and Download eBooks, EPub, PDF, Mobi, Kindle, Text Full Free.
Competing Approaches To Forecasting Elections
Download Competing Approaches To Forecasting Elections full books in PDF, epub, and Kindle. Read online Competing Approaches To Forecasting Elections ebook anywhere anytime directly on your device. Fast Download speed and no annoying ads. We cannot guarantee that every ebooks is available!
Book Synopsis Competing Approaches to Forecasting Elections by : Andrew Leigh
Download or read book Competing Approaches to Forecasting Elections written by Andrew Leigh and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We review the efficacy of three approaches to forecasting elections: econometric models that project outcomes on the basis of the state of the economy; public opinion polls; and election betting (prediction markets). We assess the efficacy of each in light of the 2004 Australian election. This election is particularly interesting both because of innovations in each forecasting technology, and also because the increased majority achieved by the Coalition surprised most pundits. While the evidence for economic voting has historically been weak for Australia, the 2004 election suggests an increasingly important role for these models. The performance of polls was quite uneven, and predictions both across pollsters, and through time, vary too much to be particularly useful. Betting markets provide an interesting contrast, and a slew of data from various betting agencies suggests a more reasonable degree of volatility, and useful forecasting performance both throughout the election cycle and across individual electorates.
Book Synopsis Competing Approachs to Forecasting Elections : Economic Models, Opinion Polling and Prediction Markets by : Andrew Leigh
Download or read book Competing Approachs to Forecasting Elections : Economic Models, Opinion Polling and Prediction Markets written by Andrew Leigh and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Forecasting Elections by : Michael S. Lewis-Beck
Download or read book Forecasting Elections written by Michael S. Lewis-Beck and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: All political scientists aim to explain politics. In addition to this goal, Michael Lewis-Beck and Tom Rice aim to forecast political events, specifically election results. In "Forecasting Elections" the authors systematically develop easy-to-understand models based on national economic and political measures to forecast eleciton results for the U.S. presidency, House of Representatives, Senate, governorships, and state legislatures. For comparative purposes, the more complex French electoral system is studied. In the final chapter the authors instruct readers on how to use the models to make their own forecasts of future elections. -- From publisher's description.
Book Synopsis Competing Approaches to Forecasting Elections by : Andrew Leigh
Download or read book Competing Approaches to Forecasting Elections written by Andrew Leigh and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We review the efficacy of three approaches to forecasting elections: econometric models that project outcomes on the basis of the state of the economy; public opinion polls; and election betting (prediction markets). We assess the efficacy of each in light of the 2004 Australian election. This election is particularly interesting both because of innovations in each forecasting technology, and also because the increased majority achieved by the Coalition surprised most pundits. While the evidence for economic voting has historically been weak for Australia, the 2004 election suggests an increasingly important role for these models. The performance of polls was quite uneven, and predictions both across pollsters, and through time, vary too much to be particularly useful. Betting markets provide an interesting contrast, and a slew of data from various betting agencies suggest a more reasonable degree of volatility, and useful forecasting performance both throughout the election cycle and across individual electorates.
Book Synopsis A Behavioral Theory of Elections by : Jonathan Bendor
Download or read book A Behavioral Theory of Elections written by Jonathan Bendor and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-02-06 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most theories of elections assume that voters and political actors are fully rational. This title provides a behavioral theory of elections based on the notion that all actors - politicians as well as voters - are only boundedly rational.
Book Synopsis Special Interest Politics by : Gene M. Grossman
Download or read book Special Interest Politics written by Gene M. Grossman and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2001 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An exploration of the role that special interest groups play in modern democratic politics.
Book Synopsis The Politics Industry by : Katherine M. Gehl
Download or read book The Politics Industry written by Katherine M. Gehl and published by Harvard Business Press. This book was released on 2020-06-23 with total page 316 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Leading political innovation activist Katherine Gehl and world-renowned business strategist Michael Porter bring fresh perspective, deep scholarship, and a real and actionable solution, Final Five Voting, to the grand challenge of our broken political and democratic system. Final Five Voting has already been adopted in Alaska and is being advanced in states across the country. The truth is, the American political system is working exactly how it is designed to work, and it isn't designed or optimized today to work for us—for ordinary citizens. Most people believe that our political system is a public institution with high-minded principles and impartial rules derived from the Constitution. In reality, it has become a private industry dominated by a textbook duopoly—the Democrats and the Republicans—and plagued and perverted by unhealthy competition between the players. Tragically, it has therefore become incapable of delivering solutions to America's key economic and social challenges. In fact, there's virtually no connection between our political leaders solving problems and getting reelected. In The Politics Industry, business leader and path-breaking political innovator Katherine Gehl and world-renowned business strategist Michael Porter take a radical new approach. They ingeniously apply the tools of business analysis—and Porter's distinctive Five Forces framework—to show how the political system functions just as every other competitive industry does, and how the duopoly has led to the devastating outcomes we see today. Using this competition lens, Gehl and Porter identify the most powerful lever for change—a strategy comprised of a clear set of choices in two key areas: how our elections work and how we make our laws. Their bracing assessment and practical recommendations cut through the endless debate about various proposed fixes, such as term limits and campaign finance reform. The result: true political innovation. The Politics Industry is an original and completely nonpartisan guide that will open your eyes to the true dynamics and profound challenges of the American political system and provide real solutions for reshaping the system for the benefit of all. THE INSTITUTE FOR POLITICAL INNOVATION The authors will donate all royalties from the sale of this book to the Institute for Political Innovation.
Book Synopsis Brookings Big Ideas for America by : Michael E. O'Hanlon
Download or read book Brookings Big Ideas for America written by Michael E. O'Hanlon and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2017 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As a new administration takes office, what are the biggest issues facing the country? The Brookings Institution offers answers to that question in this volume, which continues the Brookings tradition of providing each incoming administration with a nonpartisan analysis of the major domestic and foreign questions confronting America. On the domestic front, Brookings scholars tackle topics ranging from health care and improving economic opportunity to criminal justice reform, lawful hacking, and improving infrastructure. The alliance system, the relationship with China, nuclear weapons, terrorism, and the ongoing conflicts in Afghanistan and Syria among the foreign policies issues addressed. Throughout, Brookings scholars share their individual ideas on how best to address the agenda that awaits the new administration.
Author :National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Publisher :National Academies Press ISBN 13 :030947647X Total Pages :181 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (94 download)
Book Synopsis Securing the Vote by : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Download or read book Securing the Vote written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2018-09-30 with total page 181 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During the 2016 presidential election, America's election infrastructure was targeted by actors sponsored by the Russian government. Securing the Vote: Protecting American Democracy examines the challenges arising out of the 2016 federal election, assesses current technology and standards for voting, and recommends steps that the federal government, state and local governments, election administrators, and vendors of voting technology should take to improve the security of election infrastructure. In doing so, the report provides a vision of voting that is more secure, accessible, reliable, and verifiable.
Book Synopsis How to Predict Elections by : Louis Hyman Bean
Download or read book How to Predict Elections written by Louis Hyman Bean and published by . This book was released on 2012-09-01 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Principles of Forecasting by : J.S. Armstrong
Download or read book Principles of Forecasting written by J.S. Armstrong and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2001 with total page 880 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook summarises knowledge from experts and empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. Includes a comprehensive forecasting dictionary.
Book Synopsis The Political Logic of Poverty Relief by : Alberto Diaz-Cayeros
Download or read book The Political Logic of Poverty Relief written by Alberto Diaz-Cayeros and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2016-02-26 with total page 259 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Political Logic of Poverty Relief places electoral politics and institutional design at the core of poverty alleviation. The authors develop a theory with applications to Mexico about how elections shape social programs aimed at aiding the poor. They also assess whether voters reward politicians for targeted poverty alleviation programs.
Book Synopsis The Oxford Handbook of American Elections and Political Behavior by : Jan E. Leighley
Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of American Elections and Political Behavior written by Jan E. Leighley and published by Oxford University Press (UK). This book was released on 2012-02-16 with total page 796 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Oxford Handbooks of American Politics are the essential guide to the study of American political life in the 21st Century. With engaging contributions from the major figures in the field The Oxford Handbook of American Elections and Political Behavior provides the key point of reference for anyone working in American Politics today
Book Synopsis The SAGE Handbook of Public Opinion Research by : Wolfgang Donsbach
Download or read book The SAGE Handbook of Public Opinion Research written by Wolfgang Donsbach and published by SAGE. This book was released on 2007-12-18 with total page 641 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ′Some of the most experienced and thoughtful research experts in the world have contributed to this comprehensive Handbook, which should have a place on every serious survey researcher′s bookshelf′ - Sir Robert Worcester, Founder of MORI and President of WAPOR ′82-′84. ′This is the book I have been waiting for. It not only reflects the state of the art, but will most likely also shape public opinion on public opinion research′ - Olof Petersson, Professor of political science, SNS, Stockholm, Sweden ′The Handbook of Public Opinion Research is very authoritative, well organized, and sensitive to key issues in opinion research around the world. It will be my first choice as a general reference book for orienting users and training producers of opinion polls in Southeast Asia′ - Mahar K. Mangahas, Ph.D., President of Social Weather Stations, Philippines (www.sws.org.ph) ′This is the most comprehensive book on public opinion research to date′ - Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Secretary-Treasurer, World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR); Director of Public Opinion Programme, The University of Hong Kong Public opinion theory and research are becoming increasingly significant in modern societies as people′s attitudes and behaviours become ever more volatile and opinion poll data becomes ever more readily available. This major new Handbook is the first to bring together into one volume the whole field of public opinion theory, research methodology, and the political and social embeddedness of polls in modern societies. It comprehensively maps out the state-of-the-art in contemporary scholarship on these topics. With over fifty chapters written by distinguished international researchers, both academic and from the commercial sector, this Handbook is designed to: - give the reader an overview of the most important concepts included in and surrounding the term ′public opinion′ and its application in modern social research - present the basic empirical concepts for assessing public opinion and opinion changes in society - provide an overview of the social, political and legal status of public opinion research, how it is perceived by the public and by journalists, and how it is used by governments - offer a review of the role and use of surveys for selected special fields of application, ranging from their use in legal cases to the use of polls in marketing and campaigns. The Handbook of Public Opinion Research provides an indispensable resource for both practitioners and students alike.
Book Synopsis Taxation, Responsiveness and Accountability in Sub-Saharan Africa by : Wilson Prichard
Download or read book Taxation, Responsiveness and Accountability in Sub-Saharan Africa written by Wilson Prichard and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2015-09-11 with total page 309 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is increasingly argued that bargaining between citizens and governments over tax collection can provide a foundation for the development of responsive and accountable governance in developing countries. However, while intuitively attractive, surprisingly little research has captured the reality and complexity of this relationship in practice. This book provides the most complete treatment of the connections between taxation and accountability in developing countries, providing both new evidence and an invaluable starting point for future research. Drawing on cross-country econometric evidence and detailed case studies from Ghana, Kenya and Ethiopia, Wilson Prichard shows that reliance on taxation has, in fact, increased responsiveness and accountability by expanding the political power wielded by taxpayers. Critically, however, processes of tax bargaining have been highly varied, frequently long term and contextually contingent. Capturing this diversity provides novel insight into politics in developing countries and how tax reform can be designed to encourage broader governance gains.
Book Synopsis A Logic of Expressive Choice by : Alexander A. Schuessler
Download or read book A Logic of Expressive Choice written by Alexander A. Schuessler and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2000-10-29 with total page 198 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Alexander Schuessler has done what many deemed impossible: he has wedded rational choice theory and the concerns of social theory and anthropology to explain why people vote. The "paradox of participation"--why individuals cast ballots when they have virtually no effect on electoral outcomes--has long puzzled social scientists. And it has particularly troubled rational choice theorists, who like to describe political activity in terms of incentives. Schuessler's ingenious solution is a "logic of expressive choice." He argues in incentive-based (or "economic") terms that individuals vote not because of how they believe their vote matters in the final tally but rather to express their preferences, allegiances, and thus themselves. Through a comparative history of marketing and campaigning, Schuessler generates a "jukebox model" of participation and shows that expressive choice has become a target for those eliciting mass participation and public support. Political advisers, for example, have learned to target voters' desire to express--to themselves and to others--who they are. Candidates, using tactics such as claiming popularity, invoking lifestyle, using ambiguous campaign themes, and shielding supporters from one another can get out their vote even when it is clear that an election is already lost or won. This important work, the first of its kind, will appeal to anyone seeking to decipher voter choice and turnout, social movements, political identification, collective action, and consumer behavior, including scholars, graduate students, and upper-level undergraduates in political science, economics, sociology, anthropology, and marketing. It will contribute greatly to our understanding and prediction of democratic participation patterns and their consequences.
Book Synopsis Ritual and Rhythm in Electoral Systems by : Graeme Orr
Download or read book Ritual and Rhythm in Electoral Systems written by Graeme Orr and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-03-09 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ’Why do we vote in schools?’ ’What is the social meaning of secret balloting?’ ’What is lost if we vote by mail or computers rather than on election day?’ ’What is the history and role of drinking and wagering in elections?’ ’How does the electoral cycle generate the theatre of election night and inaugurations?’ Elections are key public events - in a secular society the only real coming together of the social whole. Their rituals and rhythms run deep. Yet their conduct is invariably examined in instrumental ways, as if they were merely competitive games or liberal apparatus. Focusing on the political cultures and laws of the UK, the US and Australia, this book offers an historicised and generalised account of the intersection of electoral systems and the concepts of ritual, rhythm and the everyday, which form the basis of how we experience elections. As a novel contribution to the theory of the law of elections, this book will be of interest to researchers, students, administrators and policy makers in both politics and law.
